Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

baords dyslexic wrote: »

But take no notice of the picture, a lot of supermarket petrol stations I know in the UK are always queued up with cars like that, cheap petrol also equals queues.

What interestes me is how badly the UK government have handled it so far.

This is true and if it happens here the Irish government will handle it alot worse

I have to laugh when I see the queues of cars at petrol stations given that the strike is still a couple of weeks away and it is likely that any fuel put into the car today will be long gone by the time the strike actually starts. However it does contain a few valuable lessons:

1. Never underestimate the stupidity of the herd mentality. You can't expect people to be rational because they won't. If you hear there is a possibility of a crisis coming in 8 weeks but think rationally and know there will be plenty of food/petrol/water etc until then, well come the 9pm news there will be footage of empty shelves and fist fights on the streets. When the news breaks it is too late. The herd will be at the shop before you. Best thing is to have a plan and some basic supplies in reserve all the time. That way you can cope with any short term blip and won't need to get involved in a knife fight for a pack of Tayto.
2. Never underestimate the stupidity of the government. We see the mess our government have made of the details of the new Home tax. Can you imagine how our esteemed pothole fillers would handle an impending strike like in the UK. Moan Burton would tell us not to panic as government buildings have a reserve supply so ministerial cars will not run out of fuel so in fact with no other cars on the road the government will probably preform far more efficently. Alan Shatter would come out swinging threatening to jail anyone found hoarding petrol. Then Big Phil would probably come out and tell us not to worry, no one is going to jail and actually you can store up to 100lt petrol quite easily in your attic by stacking it up in old 2lt Coke plastic bottles.
3. Never underestimate the stupidity of the Unions. In the UK it seems to be these tanker driver unions. They know how to press the government's buttons and are not afraid to use chaos to get what they want. In Ireland the union I fear the most are the guys in the ESB. There is a reason why average salaries in the ESB are over 80K per year and the ESB off the list of utilities to be sold off. The Unions only have to snap their fingers and the government give in to their demands. The problem is the government is no longer in control. The EU/IMF don't give a **** about maintaining supply in some backward little island off the mainland and don't know who Brendan Ogle is. They want their money back and that's all that matters. Reform is coming to the ESB and the unions will bring the country to it's knees in the battle to stop it.

And once again we have a prediction of the end of the world due to overpopulation:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/next-great-depression-mit-researchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html

A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.

Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."

Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.

I have to say I'm quite sceptical.

Doc Ruby wrote: »

You might be more right than you know, it seems the plumes are coming from a greater depth than has been touched yet by climate change. And its not like nobody noticed before, this team has been working on the area for twenty years.

It seems the release of arctic methane is accelerating.

But this doesn't explain why Eric Kort of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and his colleagues found patches of methane in remote regions of the Arctic Ocean, far from any of these known methane sources.

The team found the patches during five flights over the Arctic Ocean between 2009 and 2010, as part of a project to systematically map greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

Kort estimates that, in the methane-rich regions, about 2 milligrams of the gas were being released per square metre of ocean every day. Some of the patches were close to the oil and gas plants in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, but prevailing wind directions make these plants an unlikely source of the release.

Basically they are finding evidence of methane plumes far away from where there should be any plumes, meaning that there's a lot more of it in there and/or its heating up a lot quicker than suspected.

Edit: just reading some of the technical discussion on this story on another site, apparently nobody cares or really wants to comment on the clathrate gun hypothesis since if it happens we're all shagged anyway and there's nothing that can be done about it.

Worst case scenario local map:

The crazy weather changes could /will get worse
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/27/world/study-hints-at-greater-threat-of-extreme-weather.html?_r=2

Terror attack in Russia
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=VW-20120504-35070-RUS
Terror attack in Nigeria
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=VW-20120504-35072-NGA

Tabnabs wrote: »

Is Greece headed for a civil war?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamespoulos/2012/05/07/can-europe-survive-a-civil-war-in-greece/

He's using some curious language and reasoning there. First he makes out Greece has a large and powerful military, which it does, then he seems to imply that France should lead the EU in an invasion of Greece, and leaves us with this zinger:

The state of play in Europe is straightforward. Greece is very likely to become a failed state. Over the next five years, civil war is probable. The brute fact is that Greece has not succeeded in demonstrating that it can and should exist as a sovereign political entity.

Erm? Greece has existed as a sovereign political entity since the bronze age, albeit with several hiccups along the way. It has survived a lot worse than owing a few shekels to Brussels!

My guess would be certain sections of the media are having hysterical fits because of the successes of the neo nazi party in Greece. My own take on it would be that Greek voters did this strategically as a clear warning to mainstream political parties. Its not likely that a government will be formed, so they'll have to go back to a re-election, in which the neo nazis will be sent packing.

So civil war, maybe but unlikely, unless the military launch a coup. EU intervention, not with force of arms.

I am curious as to what he believes should replace this "failed state", subsumed into France or Germany perhaps? What does he think the oversized Greek military will have to say about that?

Whatever happens, I wouldn't want to be in Greece over the coming few years, that's for sure!

baords dyslexic wrote: »

Now you sound like you make willow baskets .

I only wish I was advanced enough in my skills to make willow baskets! Actually I might give that a whirl this summer, and upload a few pics if it doesn't come out looking too much like a briar patch.

bonniebede wrote: »

Interesting article, thanks. I would agree with you, when talking to friends or family I talk about being a 'prepper'. I think self sufficiency has a bit to do with it, but for me it's about having the skills to be a peasant farmer if I have to, but not being one while I don't.

I have found that learning to garden for food has opened up a whole new hobby which combines good food, activity and lots of sunshine, so I love it. Never would have started if it wasn't for my interest in prepping.

I liked the line about not thinking people are crazy because they have home insurance.

In the States there is a lot more emphasis on having weapons than here, that introduces a whole new level of political polarisation over there. Not that relevant here with our gun control set up.

I like the fact that on this board people clearly have different centers of focus for their interests, some are more outdoors, hikers and so on, so from them there is great info on immediate survival details; others clearly are more focused on self sufficiency and farming, etc.

One difference I am coming to realise is that Ireland, being an Island has a limited population, so some of the fears about huge urban populations flooding to the countryside have less impact. Also we grow an awful lot of food per capita. Even with the loss of mechanisation, I think we could get a lot of the population through the first year with migration of the urban population centres outwards to rual locations. Not saying that wouldn't be brutal, just would rather my chances in Ireland than say in London.

If the world collapsed and hoards of Dubs flee the city and start roaming the countryside I'm sure Bertie will claim all those empty ghost estates in the middle of no where are actually the world's best example of prepping....

Bit of flooding due over the next couple of days, get yer wellies on

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056662630