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Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    grapeape wrote: »
    Just seen that forecourts are closing amid panic buying in the UK
    http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/forecourts-closed-amid-fuel-panic-in-uk-545406.html

    But take no notice of the picture, a lot of supermarket petrol stations I know in the UK are always queued up with cars like that, cheap petrol also equals queues.

    What interestes me is how badly the UK government have handled it so far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭ ShadowFox


    But take no notice of the picture, a lot of supermarket petrol stations I know in the UK are always queued up with cars like that, cheap petrol also equals queues.

    What interestes me is how badly the UK government have handled it so far.

    This is true and if it happens here the Irish government will handle it alot worse


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,213 ✭✭✭✭ Grizzly 45


    Proably as well as the Household Poll tax...You can all feck off and wont get any fuel,at all.
    [Exemptions of course for Govt ministers,bankers,property speculators,dole'is in council houses,and other social undesireables!].

    This place will be a screaming hames of chaos soon the way things are going.:(

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,736 ✭✭✭ touts


    I have to laugh when I see the queues of cars at petrol stations given that the strike is still a couple of weeks away and it is likely that any fuel put into the car today will be long gone by the time the strike actually starts. However it does contain a few valuable lessons:

    1. Never underestimate the stupidity of the herd mentality. You can't expect people to be rational because they won't. If you hear there is a possibility of a crisis coming in 8 weeks but think rationally and know there will be plenty of food/petrol/water etc until then, well come the 9pm news there will be footage of empty shelves and fist fights on the streets. When the news breaks it is too late. The herd will be at the shop before you. Best thing is to have a plan and some basic supplies in reserve all the time. That way you can cope with any short term blip and won't need to get involved in a knife fight for a pack of Tayto.
    2. Never underestimate the stupidity of the government. We see the mess our government have made of the details of the new Home tax. Can you imagine how our esteemed pothole fillers would handle an impending strike like in the UK. Moan Burton would tell us not to panic as government buildings have a reserve supply so ministerial cars will not run out of fuel so in fact with no other cars on the road the government will probably preform far more efficently. Alan Shatter would come out swinging threatening to jail anyone found hoarding petrol. Then Big Phil would probably come out and tell us not to worry, no one is going to jail and actually you can store up to 100lt petrol quite easily in your attic by stacking it up in old 2lt Coke plastic bottles.
    3. Never underestimate the stupidity of the Unions. In the UK it seems to be these tanker driver unions. They know how to press the government's buttons and are not afraid to use chaos to get what they want. In Ireland the union I fear the most are the guys in the ESB. There is a reason why average salaries in the ESB are over 80K per year and the ESB off the list of utilities to be sold off. The Unions only have to snap their fingers and the government give in to their demands. The problem is the government is no longer in control. The EU/IMF don't give a **** about maintaining supply in some backward little island off the mainland and don't know who Brendan Ogle is. They want their money back and that's all that matters. Reform is coming to the ESB and the unions will bring the country to it's knees in the battle to stop it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,213 ✭✭✭✭ Grizzly 45


    Ah Good...Shall we see if Maggie Thatcher would like to drop over and get out from the attic that formidable handbag that worried both Regan and Gorbachov and give our lot a clatter with it to put some spine in the jellyfish Kenny& Co to stand up to the Croke Parker fat cats,and EU overlords?

    Looking forward to seeing the Irish version of the Miners strikes being reenacted by the Gardai /ESB.:rolleyes::D

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    Another potential senario nearer to home

    Bird 'flu outbreak confirmed in west Cork pheasant flock
    The Department of Agriculture has said that it is dealing with an outbreak of avian influenza in pheasants in west Cork.
    Officials confirmed that preliminary tests have identified evidence of bird 'flu in samples from a small flock of some 100 game birds on a premises near Clonakilty.
    The preliminary test results show that whilst it is what is called the H5 strain, it is not the most pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus.
    Further tests are being carried out to establish the precise strain and the results of those tests will be available within days.
    As a purely precautionary measure, the birds on the affected premises are being slaughtered.
    All necessary biosecurity measures have been put in place and a 1km restriction zone has been put in place around the farm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,213 ✭✭✭✭ Grizzly 45


    Turns out it isnt H1N1!!!:)

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    Turns out it isnt H1N1!!!:)

    But just imagine the hype that story would have got if H1N1 had been in the news for any reason anywhere in the world recently?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,213 ✭✭✭✭ Grizzly 45


    With the situation of the Israel,Iran Syria trouble hotspots,it is intresting to note that Israeli Defence Forces have cancelled all leave for Passover which starts this good Friday [April 6th]at Sundown.

    This would be like the US armed forces cancelling all leave for Thanksgiving and Xmas,as Passover is a major Jewish holiday.
    Wether theer is a creditable threat out there and Israel ha a jump on it or not is open to discussion,but to put their entire defence forces on a DEFCON 2 situation is saying somthing.:eek:

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    And once again we have a prediction of the end of the world due to overpopulation:

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/sideshow/next-great-depression-mit-researchers-predict-global-economic-190352944.html
    A new study from researchers at Jay W. Forrester's institute at MIT says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace.

    Smithsonian Magazine writes that Australian physicist Graham Turner says "the world is on track for disaster" and that current evidence coincides with a famous, and in some quarters, infamous, academic report from 1972 entitled, "The Limits to Growth."

    Produced for a group called The Club of Rome, the study's researchers created a computing model to forecast different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and global resource consumption. The study also took into account different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control and environmental protection efforts. Twelve million copies of the report were produced and distributed in 37 different languages.
    I have to say I'm quite sceptical.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭ ShadowFox




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Doc Ruby wrote: »
    You might be more right than you know, it seems the plumes are coming from a greater depth than has been touched yet by climate change. And its not like nobody noticed before, this team has been working on the area for twenty years.
    It seems the release of arctic methane is accelerating.
    But this doesn't explain why Eric Kort of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and his colleagues found patches of methane in remote regions of the Arctic Ocean, far from any of these known methane sources.

    The team found the patches during five flights over the Arctic Ocean between 2009 and 2010, as part of a project to systematically map greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

    Kort estimates that, in the methane-rich regions, about 2 milligrams of the gas were being released per square metre of ocean every day. Some of the patches were close to the oil and gas plants in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, but prevailing wind directions make these plants an unlikely source of the release.
    Basically they are finding evidence of methane plumes far away from where there should be any plumes, meaning that there's a lot more of it in there and/or its heating up a lot quicker than suspected.

    Edit: just reading some of the technical discussion on this story on another site, apparently nobody cares or really wants to comment on the clathrate gun hypothesis since if it happens we're all shagged anyway and there's nothing that can be done about it. :D

    Worst case scenario local map:
    europeMap.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭ ShadowFox




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,115 ✭✭✭ ShadowFox




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Looks like Russia just took a nosedive off the deep end:
    Russia says it is prepared to use "destructive force pre-emptively" if the US goes ahead with controversial plans for a missile defence system based in Central Europe.

    The warning came after the Russian defence minister said talks on missile defence were nearing a dead end.

    Moscow fears that missile interceptors would be a threat to Russia's security.

    But the US and Nato say they are intended to protect against attacks from Iran or North Korea.

    "A decision to use destructive force pre-emptively will be taken if the situation worsens," chief of the Russian defence staff Gen Nikolai Makarov said.
    Does this mean I get to wear my 1980s clothes again?


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,388 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    He's using some curious language and reasoning there. First he makes out Greece has a large and powerful military, which it does, then he seems to imply that France should lead the EU in an invasion of Greece, and leaves us with this zinger:
    The state of play in Europe is straightforward. Greece is very likely to become a failed state. Over the next five years, civil war is probable. The brute fact is that Greece has not succeeded in demonstrating that it can and should exist as a sovereign political entity.
    Erm? Greece has existed as a sovereign political entity since the bronze age, albeit with several hiccups along the way. It has survived a lot worse than owing a few shekels to Brussels!

    My guess would be certain sections of the media are having hysterical fits because of the successes of the neo nazi party in Greece. My own take on it would be that Greek voters did this strategically as a clear warning to mainstream political parties. Its not likely that a government will be formed, so they'll have to go back to a re-election, in which the neo nazis will be sent packing.

    So civil war, maybe but unlikely, unless the military launch a coup. EU intervention, not with force of arms.

    I am curious as to what he believes should replace this "failed state", subsumed into France or Germany perhaps? What does he think the oversized Greek military will have to say about that?

    Whatever happens, I wouldn't want to be in Greece over the coming few years, that's for sure!


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,388 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    An article in the mainstream US media about prepping
    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018203926_preppers14m.html


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    An article in the mainstream US media about prepping
    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2018203926_preppers14m.html

    Good article, also made me think about our forum title are we survivalists or preppers, is there a difference?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Good article, also made me think about our forum title are we survivalists or preppers, is there a difference?
    Or bushcrafters? I never really liked that name, sounds like some sort of a designer gardener.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    Doc Ruby wrote: »
    Or bushcrafters? I never really liked that name, sounds like some sort of a designer gardener.

    Now you sound like you make willow baskets ;).


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,388 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    Good article, also made me think about our forum title are we survivalists or preppers, is there a difference?


    I think there is a subtle shift away from the term survivalist as it has some negative connotations (hiding in the woods, with guns and some strange beliefs for example). At the time this forum was proposed I suggested prepper but it was actively shot down. 'Preppers' and 'prepping' makes more sense to me, but survivalism seems to be a more acceptable term.

    I googled the book mentioned in the article, but there's a good review on Amazon that exposes it as being pretty worthless unfortunately.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Now you sound like you make willow baskets ;).
    I only wish I was advanced enough in my skills to make willow baskets! :D Actually I might give that a whirl this summer, and upload a few pics if it doesn't come out looking too much like a briar patch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 563 bonniebede


    Tabnabs wrote: »
    I think there is a subtle shift away from the term survivalist as it has some negative connotations (hiding in the woods, with guns and some strange beliefs for example). At the time this forum was proposed I suggested prepper but it was actively shot down. 'Preppers' and 'prepping' makes more sense to me, but survivalism seems to be a more acceptable term.

    I googled the book mentioned in the article, but there's a good review on Amazon that exposes it as being pretty worthless unfortunately.


    Interesting article, thanks. I would agree with you, when talking to friends or family I talk about being a 'prepper'. I think self sufficiency has a bit to do with it, but for me it's about having the skills to be a peasant farmer if I have to, but not being one while I don't.

    I have found that learning to garden for food has opened up a whole new hobby which combines good food, activity and lots of sunshine, so I love it. Never would have started if it wasn't for my interest in prepping.

    I liked the line about not thinking people are crazy because they have home insurance.

    In the States there is a lot more emphasis on having weapons than here, that introduces a whole new level of political polarisation over there. Not that relevant here with our gun control set up.

    I like the fact that on this board people clearly have different centers of focus for their interests, some are more outdoors, hikers and so on, so from them there is great info on immediate survival details; others clearly are more focused on self sufficiency and farming, etc.

    One difference I am coming to realise is that Ireland, being an Island has a limited population, so some of the fears about huge urban populations flooding to the countryside have less impact. Also we grow an awful lot of food per capita. Even with the loss of mechanisation, I think we could get a lot of the population through the first year with migration of the urban population centres outwards to rual locations. Not saying that wouldn't be brutal, just would rather my chances in Ireland than say in London.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,736 ✭✭✭ touts


    bonniebede wrote: »
    Interesting article, thanks. I would agree with you, when talking to friends or family I talk about being a 'prepper'. I think self sufficiency has a bit to do with it, but for me it's about having the skills to be a peasant farmer if I have to, but not being one while I don't.

    I have found that learning to garden for food has opened up a whole new hobby which combines good food, activity and lots of sunshine, so I love it. Never would have started if it wasn't for my interest in prepping.

    I liked the line about not thinking people are crazy because they have home insurance.

    In the States there is a lot more emphasis on having weapons than here, that introduces a whole new level of political polarisation over there. Not that relevant here with our gun control set up.

    I like the fact that on this board people clearly have different centers of focus for their interests, some are more outdoors, hikers and so on, so from them there is great info on immediate survival details; others clearly are more focused on self sufficiency and farming, etc.

    One difference I am coming to realise is that Ireland, being an Island has a limited population, so some of the fears about huge urban populations flooding to the countryside have less impact. Also we grow an awful lot of food per capita. Even with the loss of mechanisation, I think we could get a lot of the population through the first year with migration of the urban population centres outwards to rual locations. Not saying that wouldn't be brutal, just would rather my chances in Ireland than say in London.

    If the world collapsed and hoards of Dubs flee the city and start roaming the countryside I'm sure Bertie will claim all those empty ghost estates in the middle of no where are actually the world's best example of prepping....


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,351 Rhinocharge


    Terror Attack in Yemen
    http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=VW-20120521-35175-YEM
    A suicide bomber dressed in a military uniform killed at least 47 soldiers Monday at the central security headquarters in Yemen, two intelligence officials said.The soldiers were preparing for Tuesday's National Day of Unification ceremonies when they were attacked in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa. The blast wounded 36 other soldiers, the officials said.The day celebrates the union of South Yemen and North Yemen on May 22, 1990, to form Yemen.
    The attack took place about 200 meters (218 yards) away from the presidential palace."We heard a massive explosion. Minutes later, there were so many emergency vehicles, it seems as if hundreds were injured," said resident Ali al-Husseini, who was near the attack.The defense ministry said the defense minister was at the scene of the attack but escaped unharmed. The country's chief of staff, Ahmed al-Ashwal, was also present.No one immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.Last week, al-Qaeda's leader called for the Yemeni people to rise up against the country's new president, portraying him as the stooge of the unpopular former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the United States."So, Ali Abdallah Saleh is gone, and his successor Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has taken over," al Qaeda's chief commander Ayman al-Zawahiri said in a video posted on jihadist forums.Saleh, who led Yemen for 30 years, relinquished power last year after an extended popular uprising in a transition agreement that was supported by the United States. But because Hadi was Saleh's vice president, al-Qaeda has exploited the connection to stir resentment against the new government.Last year, Ansaar al-Sharia, an offshoot of al Qaeda, took over the majority of districts in the southern Abyan province, benefiting from the political turmoil in the country. Numerous military bases were evacuated, making it easier for the militants groups to grow in power and territory.On Sunday, fierce clashes between government troops and al Qaeda fighters left 21 people dead, two local security officials said.The officials said the violence erupted when hundreds of troops attempted to sweep through areas around the district of Jaar, the main stronghold for al Qaeda in Abyan province.Al Qaeda fighters fought back, kicking off clashes that continued for nine hours, the officials said. Fourteen militants and seven troops were killed in the fighting, they said.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 Doc Ruby


    Bit of flooding due over the next couple of days, get yer wellies on

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056662630


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 902 baords dyslexic


    Doc Ruby wrote: »
    Bit of flooding due over the next couple of days, get yer wellies on

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056662630

    Rarely out of them :o

    As long its only the wellies and not the waders we need ;)


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,635 ✭✭✭ eth0


    Looking forward to a bit of floodgazing so. Standing at a lay-by just before the flood and waiting for some eejit to plough straight into it and create a massive splash


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