Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

tylercollins · 03-01-2012 7:53pm

wooow what an exciting day today has been! Severe Storm in the early hours of the morning, winds passed without much damage, a few branches down, few trees, but nothing major. Got away from work early because my boss is awesome!! Power out from about 2pm for 4/5hours (first time in over 5 years for me).

Possibly a preview of things to come this year weather wise? I hope so

Irish Steve · 03-01-2012 7:54pm

delw wrote: »

Weathercheck posted this earlier Irish Steve,maybe this is what is being mooted for Wednesday/Thursday

Saw that, but the ESB rep seemed to be suggesting even stronger and possibly nastier, if that's possible after what's been battering the NW over the last 24 hours. They specifically used the word storm, and given the nature of the ESB rep, I would be prepared to risk that they are using storm because that's what they've been given, and Weathercheck's reports seem to be a bit earlier than that, and somewhat less intense.

Do ESB get their weather information from ME or from another source, maybe ESB have been given different data to the data that ME are working from at the moment, and we've seen very clearly over the last couple of days that even close in, the models didn't completely agree on what was going to happen.

That jet certainly looks to have the potential for aggravation attached to it. Anyone prepared to bet on how early the New York flight arrives after being helped by that lot blowing up it's chuff? I think this morning's flight was showing something like an hour early, that much of a jet for most of the crossing will make it "interesting" Not sure I'd want to be on it, there's a good chance the seatbelt signs will be on for most of the trip.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-01-2012 8:14pm

Well done to WC and MT for seeing the potential in this storm
Although Cork got off lightly others got a right doing.

I'm quite often the first to slate a forecast but am happy today to congratulate!!
Well done

snaps · 03-01-2012 8:29pm

Whats this mass heading down our way (Left of Iceland) It seems to be on a SE course?

John.Icy · 03-01-2012 8:31pm

Looking through the gust predicitons, Enderman called both Dublin and Belmullet on the ball. No idea what Cork top gust was though.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-01-2012 8:44pm

snaps wrote: »

Whats this mass heading down our way (Left of Iceland) It seems to be on a SE course?

Rain and lots of it

Villain · 03-01-2012 9:49pm

Surprised not more of a mention on the system tomorrow, winds look quite strong for many areas, although the 18z High Res will give a clearer picture.

I have done a forecast on http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/03/weather-forecast-3112/

delw · 03-01-2012 10:08pm

Villain wrote: »

Surprised not more of a mention on the system tomorrow, winds look quite strong for many areas, although the 18z High Res will give a clearer picture.

I have done a forecast on http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/03/weather-forecast-3112/

Cheers Villain & good luck with the site

ninebeanrows · 03-01-2012 10:12pm

Villain wrote: »

Surprised not more of a mention on the system tomorrow, winds look quite strong for many areas, although the 18z High Res will give a clearer picture.

I have done a forecast on http://www.iwo.ie/2012/01/03/weather-forecast-3112/

It was already mentioned.

Looks like a strong gale. Although at the moment i can't see anything too extreme unless the low to the north edges further south and increases the gradient. Infact the two charts in your article i posted around 5 pages back.;)

John mac · 03-01-2012 10:26pm

just wondering if there are any actual charts that could be overlaid to the predicted ones?
Might be interesting..

(why all the thread title changes ?)

andrew · 03-01-2012 10:58pm

John mac wrote: »

just wondering if there are any actual charts that could be overlaid to the predicted ones?
Might be interesting.

(why all the thread title changes ?)

Yeah, I think it'd be interesting to see how a model's output changes for a particular day from 6 days out, to 5, 4 etc.

Hooter23 · 03-01-2012 11:04pm

Just showed winds in scotland on bbc news there was a large bridge swaying with the wind:eek:

Will be on bbc news again in few minutes anybody that wants to see it

eskimocat · 03-01-2012 11:13pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Just showed winds in scotland on bbc news there was a large bridge swaying with the wind:eek:

Will be on bbc news again in few minutes anybody that wants to see it

Have I missed the replay?

EDIT; Holy smoke! that was mental... wow it really shows how lucky we were....

tylercollins · 03-01-2012 11:29pm

The video for those interested..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16401008

Oscar Bravo · 03-01-2012 11:42pm

Well i was up last night and posting on here us useual! and i have to say well done to M.T and everyone who posted reports,ive just read over them again and when you re-read them you get a sense of the Storm moving West-East.Around 3am was the worst winds ive heard in Castlebar in years but i felt a sense of safety even in reading and knowing other posters were up and active!!

M.T. Cranium · 03-01-2012 11:43pm

I've been fully occupied for hours doing some annual scoring on our forecast contest, just catching up on the weather now.

Had a look at the latest for tomorrow, think it will get to about 40 kts gusting to 65 kts in Donegal and perhaps 35 to 55 further south, the main question becoming any strong focus for gusts, as it's mainly just a fast flow situation.

Will certainly keep a close eye on it for the 0600h forecast package.

Just a brief post-mortem on the storm ... thanks to Weathercheck for starting the thread with such a good foundation, personally I started to view this as a major wind potential when some of the models started to signal deepening, the forward speed element was always the big selling point as the storm otherwise was only barely comparable to various other moderate-grade storms we've seen. But it was moving twice as fast (almost) as some of those were.

In the final analysis, the storm almost did follow route one, but perhaps a bit closer to Donegal than most of the "route one" storms of the past few years. I compared its track to the Nov 2010 strong windstorm and found it was generally about one degree of latitude further south.

The three-hour pressure falls of 15-18 mbs noted at many locations around Ireland (most spectacular was at the K4 buoy) were among the strongest that I've ever seen in a long period of weather watching that includes some very powerful storms. Only a rapidly developing hurricane might beat that pressure fall, but add to that, the central pressure itself was dropping quite rapidly, from 989 mbs at 06z Monday to about 954 mbs at 06z Tuesday, a drop of 35 mbs.

The storm could have been even more intense if it had tapped into a tighter jet stream, then the squall line feature would have mixed down even stronger winds (this probably was the case in the Jan 2007 storm). The extreme winds in central Scotland can probably be ascribed more to ideal topographic channelling than jet stream coupling.

Another oddity of the storm was that the lowly regarded GME model may have had the best depiction at short range. All of the models did some things well and some not so well as far as guidance, but the GEM (not GME) at least gave me some confidence on the rapid deepening at a key point for forecasting.

At the moment, I don't trust the models too much beyond about 72h, there could be a shudder west at some point and then this mild blocking ridge concept would be quickly replaced by colder northerlies. In fact some of the model runs in recent days have toyed with this scenario. There are large energy peaks due on the 7th and 9th which seem underdeveloped at present, so don't be too surprised if we are scrambling together another storm thread before too long.

One final note, I wonder if the daily summary will maintain the 91-kt gust at Malin Head, last month we saw some reductions from hourly to daily summary, but then I noticed in the monthly summary for December a figure quoted of 73 kts at Malin Head, when I seem to recall the hourly was 74 and the daily was 70. Ongoing quality control issues? Or just faulty MTC memory?

Probably the latter. What were we talking about?

John mac · 04-01-2012 12:04am

One final note, I wonder if the daily summary will maintain the 91-kt gust at Malin Head, last month we saw some reductions from hourly to daily summary, but then I noticed in the monthly summary for December a figure quoted of 73 kts at Malin Head, when I seem to recall the hourly was 74 and the daily was 70. Ongoing quality control issues? Or just faulty MTC memory?

Not your memory , I had the gust spot on ( according to the hourly postings) until they changed it ..

on last night's wind, strongest here was between 02:45 and 03:30 thought the roof was about to fly off.

rilz · 04-01-2012 12:15am

I have a load of debris. My pvc went flying from outside, lol. Just glad hit no neighbours car. One hell of a storm.

Ahorseofaman · 04-01-2012 12:28am

rilz wrote: »

I have a load of debris. My pvc went flying from outside, lol. Just glad hit no neighbours car. One hell of a storm.

you should'nt really hang your kinky stuff outside,people might talk

km79 · 04-01-2012 12:42am

a big thanks to everyone that posted over the last few days . twas fun

off to bed now

Redsunset · 04-01-2012 9:46am

I must say that our little squall other night turned into a right healthy boy over England yesterday morn.Only seeing it now.
Have some family in London and said it was like being in a hurricane.
AiO4dDsCMAEpO1-.jpg:large

gbee · 04-01-2012 11:11am

tylercollins wrote: »

The video for those interested..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16401008

I've tried Firefox, IE Explorer, Chrome and Safari and this BBC vid just won't play, it does not ask for anything just loads and loads and loads but never plays?

Irish Steve · 04-01-2012 11:35am

gbee wrote: »

I've tried Firefox, IE Explorer, Chrome and Safari and this BBC vid just won't play, it does not ask for anything just loads and loads and loads but never plays?

Just tried it here, using Firefox latest version, and it played, so that's either going to be an ISP issue, or a setting in one of the things on your local machine, depending on what firewall and related packages you are running, or some obscure version or revision level that's reacting with the download that's being accessed.

There can sometimes be issues with the BBC site recongnising that your IP address is outside of the UK and restricting access to the file concerned, but that is ruled out by the fact that my machine was able to access it.

The other aspect is that I can't tell from an operating system point of view, I'm still (deliberately) running XP here, the laptop is home version, if you're on Vista or 7, there may be something happening in them that's related.

It's hard to know what to suggest if there's no message of any sort, as that also means there's not likely to be any messages in the system logging information that would be helpful.

It would be worth checking the related software to see if it's the latest revision levels, and the latest patches as well, it's using Flash Player, which I know from my machine has been updated several times in the last couple of months. I have just looked at it, a right click while it;s running, and there is an option to download it to Real Player, so as a diagnostic, try right click on the video window while it's loading, and see if it's launched Flash Player or not, it should also give you the file details. The other possibility is that there is a codec for the file type missing from the application, but without seeing the machine in action, it's hard to tell.

Hope that helps

waytoowarm · 04-01-2012 11:39am

gbee wrote: »

I've tried Firefox, IE Explorer, Chrome and Safari and this BBC vid just won't play, it does not ask for anything just loads and loads and loads but never plays?

i played it just now using chrome. played first try

gbee · 04-01-2012 11:41am

Irish Steve wrote: »

The other possibility is that there is a codec for the file type missing from the application, but without seeing the machine in action, it's hard to tell.

Hope that helps

The codec could be the answer, all my browsers were updated recently all under Windows 7 which had an update itself during December.

I'll downloada codec pack and try that. Thanks much.

Steopo · 04-01-2012 11:48am

Anyone know if there is a site that can show the track of Tues storm from start to current status. See MT mentions on the winter thread that it is now setting up in the Baltic

tylercollins · 04-01-2012 11:55am

gbee wrote: »

The codec could be the answer, all my browsers were updated recently all under Windows 7 which had an update itself during December.

I'll downloada codec pack and try that. Thanks much.

I was actually thinking more along the lines of maybe an outdated version of flash?

For the codecs I would recommend K-Lite Codec Pack Standard

irish1967 · 04-01-2012 11:57am

I nominate this thread for inclusion in the "interesting past threads" sticky.

With the predictions, real time reports and aftermath posts and pics I think it has it all.

Deep Easterly · 04-01-2012 12:05pm

Steopo wrote: »

Anyone know if there is a site that can show the track of Tues storm from start to current status. See MT mentions on the winter thread that it is now setting up in the Baltic

Satellite animation for Europe/E Atlantic for the last 3 days here:

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/terra3d/video/bmbf2.mpg

If you can't view it online just right click link, press 'save link as' and download the file onto your computer (around 2.5mb so not too big) and it will play on Windows Media Player or similar no hassle.

Joe Public · 04-01-2012 12:07pm

gbee wrote: »

I've tried Firefox, IE Explorer, Chrome and Safari and this BBC vid just won't play, it does not ask for anything just loads and loads and loads but never plays?

Plays fine for me - I have Windows 7 and IE 8

Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

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