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Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

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    #152
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    leahyl wrote: »
    What exactly does this mean maquiladora?

    It means he's clutching at straws posting NAE charts!


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    #153
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Looks like a downgrade on the 12Z UKMO too....

    deja_vu_cover.jpg

    Still looks strong enough though, not surprised this is being downgraded, have seen these potential storms ramped up and always to end up being nothing special

    10110800_0512.gif


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    #154
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    leahyl wrote: »
    What exactly does this mean maquiladora?

    Means that there is still some disagreement between the models on the shape of the low at 48 hours. So nothing set in stone yet. :)


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    #155
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Rougies wrote: »
    It means he's clutching at straws posting NAE charts!

    Nah, the NAE is a good model! Clutching at straws would be posting the WMC... :pac:


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    #156
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Means that there is still some disagreement between the models on the shape of the low at 48 hours. So nothing set in stone yet. :)

    Hehe ok i'll take your word for it:) I like when people still cling onto the hope:D


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    #157
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    "Storm" beginning to enter into hi res territory now. Latest HIRLAM windspeed forecast for 19hrs Sunday as front approaches:

    133817.png

    blustery conditions setting in over the west with gales just off the NW coast. The main blast of wind is still to the west.


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    #158
    naughto
    Registered Users Posts: 7,329 ✭✭✭naughto


    rainsitpoursp1.gif

    this is for sunday


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    #159
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Want a laugh? Then read this, from the front of the Evening Herald.....
    HURRICANE ON THE WAY

    Batten down the hatches - a hurricane is on the way.

    The capital was on major flood alert today as forecasters warned of heavy rain and winds of up to 100kmh.

    Walls of sandbags were erected along the Clontarf seafront in Dublin as the country prepared for a battering from near hurricane-force winds.

    .......

    Met Eireann forecaster Gerald Fleming said today that the storm originated from the Caribbean are where Hurricane Tomas is currently causing major alerts.

    He said that Ireland will be hit by the storm which "began to spawn yesterday. It's moved up the east coast of the US and is bringing rain to parts of New England.

    Where did they get the idea that this was a hurricane???

    Then they have another article on "another storm like the one threatening Dublin" ie. Tomas. How can it be in two places at the same time?

    Shame on you Alan O'Keefe, Conor Feehan and Cormac Murphy, for the worst journalism I have ever seen.

    Thankfully the Herald have seen fit to remove all reference to a hurricane here on their latest online article.


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    #160
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    *facepalm*

    Shockingly sloppy journalism.


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    #161
    naughto
    Registered Users Posts: 7,329 ✭✭✭naughto


    any see it on the 6 one news


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    #162
    Steyr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,266 ✭✭✭Steyr


    Yes saw the 6 News they had Jean Byrne on and she was pretty up front that this storm could cause major flooding, the West is going to see the worst of this storm according to Jean with the East at risk sometime on Monday


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    #163
    Not
    Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Want a laugh? Then read this, from the front of the Evening Herald.....



    Where did they get the idea that this was a hurricane???

    Then they have another article on "another storm like the one threatening Dublin" ie. Tomas. How can it be in two places at the same time?

    Shame on you Alan O'Keefe, Conor Feehan and Cormac Murphy, for the worst journalism I have ever seen.

    Thankfull the Herald have seen fit to remove all reference to a hurricane here on their latest online article.

    :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: Somebody has obviously forgotten to recalibrate the sensationalometer for the conversion to km/h. If the winds were going to be 100mph there might be some sort of excuse for this headline. Maybe we should send these boyos out on a raft into the Atlantic preferably heading in the direction of the Carribbean so they can do some first hand research into what a real hurricane is.

    That said I still wouldn't be mountain climbing or fishing from rocks during the storm. It does unfortunately look like not being good in terms of coastal tides and surges, and unfortunately it may be a catastrophy for some people with property or businesses along the coast or beside flood prone rivers:(.


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    #164
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    The most cringe-worthy comment I heard was from Will Leahy on 2fm this evening. He called this coming weekend "hurricane weekend" in Deejay stylie. Nearly put my foot through the radio when he said it.


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    #165
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A well presented forecast there from Jean. Looks like the ECM wants to take the centre of the low a bit further to the west than was previously forecast. Start of a more westward trend to the track I wonder?


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    #166
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I think that after all's said and done it'll have gone down weatherwise as nothing more than a few hours of strong, but not overly strong, winds and a passing band of heavy rain, which won't hang around long enough to cause much flooding inland. Take away the high tides and low pressure and this wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary. The chances are that by Monday it will have filled quicker than the models are showing, so the east coast may get off lighter than we think.


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    #167
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I think that after all's said and done it'll have gone down weatherwise as nothing more than a few hours of strong, but not overly strong, winds and a passing band of heavy rain, which won't hang around long enough to cause much flooding inland. Take away the high tides and low pressure and this wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary. The chances are that by Monday it will have filled quicker than the models are showing, so the east coast may get off lighter than we think.

    I agree. Getting that sort of inevitable feeling now too. Hopefully the flooding wont be too bad & at least people in at risk areas have time to prepare as best as possible.

    It seems we just cant get a good windstorm here anymore...


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    #168
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    maquiladora wrote: »
    A well presented forecast there from Jean. Looks like the ECM wants to take the centre of the low a bit further to the west than was previously forecast. Start of a more westward trend to the track I wonder?


    Yep, nothing major on the way on tonight's ECM:

    anim_b7217efa-9a99-20b4-b5cb-8766b3627615.gif

    the colder air on the back of the low could scoop some heavy showers along the east coast later monday and into tuesday.


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    #169
    Chicken Run
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Chicken Run


    maquiladora wrote: »
    *facepalm*

    Shockingly sloppy journalism.

    Friday afternoon story..... long lunch, few scoops, make something up quickly !!! :D


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    #170
    Not
    Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    Chicken Run wrote: »
    Friday afternoon story..... long lunch, few scoops, make something up quickly !!! :D

    A scoop too many in that case...


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    #171
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Su Campu wrote: »
    I think that after all's said and done it'll have gone down weatherwise as nothing more than a few hours of strong, but not overly strong, winds and a passing band of heavy rain, which won't hang around long enough to cause much flooding inland. Take away the high tides and low pressure and this wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary. The chances are that by Monday it will have filled quicker than the models are showing, so the east coast may get off lighter than we think.

    Ah lads ye're killing me here! I thought Jean Byrnes forecast on the Six One news looked pretty promising?


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    #172
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    leahyl wrote: »
    Ah lads ye're killing me here! I thought Jean Byrnes forecast on the Six One news looked pretty promising?

    Jean was very (and rightfully) cautious about how this developing system might affect us. She spoke of possibility rather than probability.


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    #173
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Its all going to be boring, cant believe the eye of the storm is going to pass right over us. Oh well.


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    #174
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    snaps wrote: »
    Its all going to be boring, cant believe the eye of the storm is going to pass right over us. Oh well.

    :( Ah well we'll just have to wait for that major snowstorm that's gonna come our way anyday now....just you wait....:D


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    #175
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    what's most concerning about all of this is, irrespective of wind strength, any rainfall will be adding to our already saturated ground. I would be worried that we could see some serious flooding this month if the rain continues to fall. Over 100mm fell in Ennis between Oct 26 and Nov 3 for example. So far this month 75mm has fallen in Shannon.

    The soil has already reached saturation point so any rain that falls will sit on the ground or flow straight into already swollen rivers/streams. The fear is that a period of intense rainfall could overwhelm our rivers and tributaries.


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    #176
    isle of man
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    holy hell just seen them wind charts,
    looks like we here are in for a right bashing.

    anybody give us a run down on times and wind expect for me here


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    #177
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    what's most concerning about all of this is, irrespective of wind strength, any rainfall will be adding to our already saturated ground. I would be worried that we could see some serious flooding this month if the rain continues to fall. Over 100mm fell in Ennis between Oct 26 and Nov 3 for example. So far this month 75mm has fallen in Shannon.

    The soil has already reached saturation point so any rain that falls will sit on the ground or flow straight into already swollen rivers/streams. The fear is that a period of intense rainfall could overwhelm our rivers and tributaries.


    What was posted earlier was from well drained soil . . .whats more worrying is the poorly drained and moderately drained soil moisture deficits . .

    smd_pd.gif


    smd_md.gif


    I think the moderate one is the most accurate, as the well drained and poorly drained seem to be a bit rounded off . .


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    #178
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    isle of man wrote: »
    holy hell just seen them wind charts,
    looks like we here are in for a right bashing.

    anybody give us a run down on times and wind expect for me here

    Based on the latest GFS you could see sustained winds up to around 80kmph but gusts up to around 100kmph Monday morning.

    But this thing hasnt even developed yet so by the time Monday comes around you might just have a wet breezey day!


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    #179
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,660 ✭✭✭Darwin


    isle of man wrote: »
    holy hell just seen them wind charts,
    looks like we here are in for a right bashing.

    anybody give us a run down on times and wind expect for me here

    Take a look at xcweather.co.uk, gives a 3-hourly wind forecast for the next few days. The early hours of Monday morning look very nasty for you at this point, but the timing and wind speeds will probably chop and change between now and then.


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    #180
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    fax72s.gif

    Light winds for Ireland, Wales and the south of England there. Strong winds only out at sea.


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    #181
    isle of man
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭isle of man


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Based on the latest GFS you could see sustained winds up to around 80kmph but gusts up to around 100kmph Monday morning.

    But this thing hasnt even developed yet so by the time Monday comes around you might just have a wet breezey day!

    thanks.


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