Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

WolfeIRE

Hi all,

there are a few threads open at the moment all referring to the weekend storm. Any chance we could keep posts in the same thread as it's getting a bit mixed up.

Also, Storm Seamus is better than the incorrectly named Thomas i think:pac:

leahyl

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

WolfeIRE

leahyl wrote: »

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

the threat posed by a second potential storm has dissipated somewhat in the latest model output. That storm is now tracking WSW over Scotland leaving us with strong to gale force westerly winds on Friday/Saturday.

This may of course change again.

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

the threat posed by a second potential storm has dissipated somewhat in the latest model output. That storm is now tracking WSW over Scotland leaving us with strong to gale force westerly winds on Friday/Saturday.

This may of course change again.

Ok thanks - i guess things change constantly so can't really be that sure at this stage:)

maquiladora

Not much change on the 06Z GFS. Looks like the track is shifted a little to the east but wobbles like that are going to happen on every run.


It will be interesting to see how the models compare to what actually happens. I've seen some comments on other boards that the models might not have a handle of the storm yet because of how fierce the jet will be. The jet is so strong. I see black shading right in the core of the stream there. Thats 350 kmph at 300hpa.

Su Campu

leahyl wrote: »

Someone mentioned - i don't know was it this thread or another - that there is another storm (possibly) heading our way for next Thursday? Can someone elaborate on this or is it too early? Does it look nasty?

There's no storm heading our way Thursday. The GFS and ECM have a depression well to our north, near Iceland, bringing just stiff westerly winds, but nothing more.

leahyl

Su Campu wrote: »

There's no storm heading our way Thursday. The GFS and ECM have a depression well to our north, near Iceland, bringing just stiff westerly winds, but nothing more.

OK...:( bummer! I love a good storm! Well i know we will have one on Sunday anyway at least:) Keeping an eye on this thread - great work all of you weather experts!

Sierra Oscar

When should we start to expect the affects of this storm at the weekend, late Sunday - or beforehand?

maquiladora

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

When should we start to expect the affects of this storm at the weekend, late Sunday - or beforehand?

Probably around Sunday afternoon rain should start to reach the west coast and winds will start to pick up. All depends on how fast it moves and the track it takes though.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

Probably around Sunday afternoon rain should start to reach the west coast and winds will start to pick up. All depends on how fast it moves and the track it takes though.

Also AA Roadwatch are warning of winds getting up to 100kmph but is there any chance they could go even higher than that? 100kmph is roughly 60mph right which is very strong but would that be considered storm force?

WolfeIRE

BASED ON LATEST GFS OUTPUT

SW Winds will pick up from early Sunday eve along the west coast reaching strong to gale force by 5pm.

By 6pm, gale to storm force winds in excess of 70kph will effect much of the island

By midnight Sunday, winds will have slackened in the west as the low centre pushes over the country but winds will still be strong along the eastern seaboard (s to sw winds) and the northwest (westerly)

By 6-9am on Monday the strongest winds (nw) will be in Ulster and along the east coast. The rest of the country will not see winds really pick up until early afternoon. E and later NE winds will strengthen by 3-5pm on Monday across the entire country and will not weaken considerably until the late PM or early Tuesday morning.

leahyl

WolfeIRE wrote: »

BASED ON LATEST GFS OUTPUT

SW Winds will pick up from early Sunday eve along the west coast reaching strong to gale force by 5pm.

By 6pm, gale to storm force winds in excess of 70kph will effect much of the island

By midnight Sunday, winds will have slackened in the west as the low centre pushes over the country but winds will still be strong along the eastern seaboard (s to sw winds) and the northwest (westerly)

By 6-9am on Monday the strongest winds (nw) will be in Ulster and along the east coast. The rest of the country will not see winds really pick up until early afternoon. E and later NE winds will strengthen by 3-5pm on Monday across the entire country and will not weaken cosndierably until the late PM or ealy Tuesday morning.

Wow sounds like a big one - just once it's cleared by Wednesday i'm happy (driving test!)

ThisRegard

If anyone is building a patio they can pop down to Clontarf to get some sand for themselves, looks like there's tonnes of it there, see pics here
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/warning-as-hurricane-heads-for-our-shores-2408553.html?start=1

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Also AA Roadwatch are warning of winds getting up to 100kmph but is there any chance they could go even higher than that? 100kmph is roughly 60mph right which is very strong but would that be considered storm force?

Storm force is 10 on the Beaufort scale, 89–102 kmph, so yes that would be storm force. I think its too early know really because even fairly small changes in where and how quickly it forms will have a big impact on what we will get later. Somewhere around the British Isles will almost certainly get gusts well over 100kmph, I think thats pretty safe to say.

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting that this storm is getting interest even on the American weather forums because of its very unusual track and how deep the models drop the pressure to.

Here is the Met Eireann outlook :

Sunday will start bright and dry with sunny spells. During the afternoon and evening it will become very windy or even stormy with widespread heavy rain and very strong West to Southwesterly winds. Some flooding is likely. As a deep area of low pressure tracks over Ireland during Sunday night and Monday there will be further periods of heavy rain and strong winds at times with more flooding likely. Max temperatures on Sunday and Monday will range 7 to 10 degrees. Clearer showery weather will set in on Monday evening and night with very strong and blustery Northerly winds turning Northeasterly.

What American weather forum is it mentioned on Maq???

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

What American weather forum is it mentioned on Maq???

www.easternuswx.com

Iancar29

Im starting to get very tempted to get a train down to tralee and go to the coast for the day just to witness this storm , especially if its not gonna effect the east that much!

WolfeIRE

The East coast presently looks like seeing some of the strongest winds on Monday afternoon/evening Ian.

maquiladora

Flood alert for Galway : http://www.galwaynews.ie/15921-city-put-flood-alert-high-tides-heavy-rain-and-strong-winds-are-promised

maquiladora

UKMO has a warning out now for NI and western Britain for Sunday.

An unusually deep area of low pressure will bring a period of severe gales and heavy rain on Sunday evening with inland gusts likely to reach 55-65mph in places, especially in areas exposed to the south to southeasterly winds. There is a risk of disruption due to falling trees, especially given that some trees are still in leaf

In addition, roads on high ground in the Scottish mountains may well see significant snowfall causing disruption.

Issued at: 1128 Fri 5 Nov

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The East coast presently looks like seeing some of the strongest winds on Monday afternoon/evening Ian.

Ill try get a video of it up on tuesday so!

anoble66

not sure if its entirely relevant, but last night ESB have dropped the water level by at least 2ft in the section that stretches from Ballina / Killaloe towards Annacotty Weir. Workers are also out examing the esb poles around and about....reckon they are definately gearing up for a serious storm as I have never seen them do this before.

leahyl

anoble66 wrote: »

not sure if its entirely relevant, but last night ESB have dropped the water level by at least 2ft in the section that stretches from Ballina / Killaloe towards Annacotty Weir. Workers are also out examing the esb poles around and about....reckon they are definately gearing up for a serious storm as I have never seen them do this before.

sounds serious! If that's what they are actually doing - gearing up for a storm. Can't remember the last time we had a proper wind/rain storm though -well not in cork anyway. I mean i know we had the flood last year but it wasn't very windy really

gbee

leahyl wrote: »

I mean i know we had the flood last year but it wasn't very windy really

And the biggest contributor to that flooding was the action of the ESB at Inniscarra. We had a very bad forecast well in advance but we did not receive anything exceptional and nothing the that ESB in Inniscarra should not have been able to handle.

Su Campu

Just to put it to bed for once and for all, as people are still saying to me in work that we're in for Hurricane Tomas Sunday night - the storm we'll get is nothing whatsoever got to do with Tomas, as you can see from the chart below. If anybody says it to you, please put them right, cos it's driving me mad!!!!

06UTC this morning, showing the start of Sunday's system just off the US east coast, and Tomas well to the south, over Haiti. The large upper trough marked in blue will deepen further, tightening the upper gradient between it and the ridge, strengthening the jetstream to well over 200mph by late Saturday/early Sunday, which will give the forcing required for explosive cyclogenesis during Sunday afternoon.

leahyl

gbee wrote: »

And the biggest contributor to that flooding was the action of the ESB at Inniscarra. We had a very bad forecast well in advance but we did not receive anything exceptional and nothing the that ESB in Inniscarra should not have been able to handle.

Yes i agree ESB was at fault here but i don't recall it being too windy was what i was saying:)

gbee

Su Campu wrote: »

. If anybody says it to you, please put them right, cos it's driving me mad!!!!

I've emailed the indo.ie as they seem to be whom everybody else is quoting. Can't email 96fm without an account apparently, wouldn't make any difference anyway tbh.

gbee

leahyl wrote: »

Yes i agree ESB was at fault here but i don't recall it being too windy was what i was saying:)

Yes, I'm agree with you, we did not get a significant weather event and those floods were my biggest surprise ~ I knew immediately that the weather had not generated this response.

But with that gaping whole in the Quay wall still and the collapsed building alongside it, I'm heading there Monday morning with the camera. See you there perhaps.

leahyl

gbee wrote: »

Yes, I'm agree with you, we did not get a significant weather event and those floods were my biggest surprise ~ I knew immediately that the weather had not generated this response.

But with that gaping whole in the Quay wall still and the collapsed building alongside it, I'm heading there Monday morning with the camera. See you there perhaps.

HAHA unlikely - i'm not sure if i want to risk my life if it's gonna be that bad:eek:! Take care:)

WolfeIRE

Good to see the Government stepping in early to avoid last year's flooding fiasco by providing free cheese to everyone