Winter 2010-2011 outlook

isle of man · 06-09-2010 12:44am

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Hoe does the weather that is yet to happen have any sort of effect on the growth of plants and their fruit?

nature has a wondefull way of surprising us and doing things you would not expect and you could not belive to be true.

There is a lot things you can look at in the world that you would think would mean northing but nature allways has its plan

MUSEIST · 07-09-2010 11:06pm

isle of man wrote: »

nature has a wondefull way of surprising us and doing things you would not expect and you could not belive to be true.

There is a lot things you can look at in the world that you would think would mean northing but nature allways has its plan

Yeah,
I am pretty sure tipp winning the all ireland means the winter will be a white out, its a sign, i am certain. Oh and I swore I saw winter 10/11 very cold written in the butter in my toast this morning, tis looking good.

BEASTERLY · 07-09-2010 11:16pm

isle of man wrote: »

nature has a wondefull way of surprising us and doing things you would not expect and you could not belive to be true.

There is a lot things you can look at in the world that you would think would mean northing but nature allways has its plan

Ok can you give me some evidence, if you have no theory for why there may be a connection, or any statistical evidence even, then please do not be declaring this ''theory'' fact.

The only reason may be that the plants are phycics. Look at it from my point of view. I know for a fact that it will be pissing rain on 23rd July 2013 beacause I saw to pigeons going directly overhead within 3 hours of eachother today.

See that is every bit as credible as your theory, not saying much in fairness.

isle of man · 07-09-2010 11:20pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ok can you give me some evidence, if you have no theory for why there may be a connection, or any statistical evidence even, then please do not be declaring this ''theory'' fact.

The only reason may be that the plants are phycics. Look at it from my point of view. I know for a fact that it will be pissing rain on 23rd July 2013 beacause I saw to pigeons going directly overhead within 3 hours of eachother today.

See that is every bit as credible as your theory, not saying much in fairness.

Well i know a man that can tell what the weathers going to do by just looking at 4 hills,

Also i know when its going to rain in the next 24 hours if i hear just 1 sound from where i live.

Can i really prove all this by hard scientific facts. prob not.
But does not make them any less true. well thats up to you

gothwalk · 08-09-2010 12:03pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Hoe does the weather that is yet to happen have any sort of effect on the growth of plants and their fruit?

Well. The theory seems to be that there are perceptible signals - presumably in weather patterns early in the year - which indicate the conditions in the coming winter. Plants can't reason, but they're subject to evolution, so they can evolve toward taking advantage of it.

In a cold winter, animals and birds need more food. A tree that has produced more fruit will feed more animals, and have its seeds spread further. Therefore, natural selection will favour the plants which respond to the early signals by producing more fruit.

Reading backwards from this, we can guess that heavy crops indicate a cold winter.

I'm not convinced of the veracity of this, mind. Not because the theoretical process is dodgy, but because I don't believe that there are reliable signals more than a few weeks in advance. Weather is chaotic - in the mathematical sense - and so while we can produce guesses based on previous patterns ("attractors"), we can't predict outliers with any accuracy at all.

Aiel · 08-09-2010 1:40pm

I love a good old fashioned Atlantic Storm.I go down to Prom at Salthill and watch the show,very cool.
Last winter i was in NYC with the girlfriend,was -16 Celcius one night,never experienced cold like that.Then going back to Ireland on January 7th we couldnt land in Dublin as runway was frozen so we were diverted to London.We couldnt land there though as only Heathrow was opened and too many flights trying to land there.So we were diverted to Manchester but no luck there.Finally we landed in the snow of Glasgow(after flying for 90 extra minutes on a Transatlantic flight,so fuel was very low).It was amazing flying over Ireland and England though and seeing just all white landscape.Eventually Shannon opened up and we took off for there but on route Dublin airport re-opened so landed there about 5 hours late:).Then no buses were going and roads were icy so we took the train down to Galway.Again it was amazing to see the picture postcard white landscape.:)A great adventure,no travel plans for this winter though.:)

Iancar29 · 08-09-2010 8:30pm

I hope to be goin back to Norway aain wit friends if we get a trip for aroun the same price we went for back in January... Was amazing., we landed in Torp (Olso) airport. It was snowing alot. As soon as we pulled into the terminal and gettin ready to get off the plane the pilot announced ..." welcome to Oslo Torp hope u enjoy ur stay, be carefull gettin off fokes , it's -9 out there" .

, I don't even know how the airport was open , comparing to when our airport closes it would hav been at least twice as bad.

But ye, we stayed in a cabin in a very small village outside a place called RISör. All snowed in . Open fire , heated pool and jacuzzi , sauna that we couldn't get to work properely

.

But ye, I'm dying to go bac! 5 feet snow drifts .... I miss them!

nacho libre · 09-09-2010 1:04am

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hope to be goin back to Norway aain wit friends if we get a trip for aroun the same price we went for back in January... Was amazing., we landed in Torp (Olso) airport. It was snowing alot. As soon as we pulled into the terminal and gettin ready to get off the plane the pilot announced ..." welcome to Oslo Torp hope u enjoy ur stay, be carefull gettin off fokes , it's -9 out there" . , I don't even know how the airport was open , comparing to when our airport closes it would hav been at least twice as bad.

But ye, we stayed in a cabin in a very small village outside a place called RISör. All snowed in . Open fire , heated pool and jacuzzi , sauna that we couldn't get to work properely .

But ye, I'm dying to go bac! 5 feet snow drifts .... I miss them!

Aye. I remember those photos.
If it's a predominantly mild Winter here this year, your future photos could be painful viewing and leave people feeling envious:)

irish1967 · 09-09-2010 1:40am

(nips in from 8 months of lurking silence) Yeah I remember those pics too

)

delw · 09-09-2010 2:33am

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hope to be goin back to Norway aain wit friends if we get a trip for aroun the same price we went for back in January... Was amazing., we landed in Torp (Olso) airport. It was snowing alot. As soon as we pulled into the terminal and gettin ready to get off the plane the pilot announced ..." welcome to Oslo Torp hope u enjoy ur stay, be carefull gettin off fokes , it's -9 out there" . , I don't even know how the airport was open , comparing to when our airport closes it would hav been at least twice as bad.

But ye, we stayed in a cabin in a very small village outside a place called RISör. All snowed in . Open fire , heated pool and jacuzzi , sauna that we couldn't get to work properely .

But ye, I'm dying to go bac! 5 feet snow drifts .... I miss them!

yeah iancar remember them photos&remember being jealous as f**k but hpe tings work out for you again this year,unfortunately il will have to put you on igonre list as couldnt watch them photos as we get washed out

(only joking have great time if you get there&post plenty of photos)

pauldry · 09-09-2010 11:26am

No whiteout this year but some short sharp bursts of cold IMO

Last year was a once in 40year event. Surely not another.

gothwalk · 09-09-2010 4:11pm

pauldry wrote: »

No whiteout this year but some short sharp bursts of cold IMO

Last year was a once in 40year event. Surely not another.

The more I look at the records, the more I'm convinced that this argument doesn't stand.

Sure, it's unusual to have two severe winters in a row, but it's unusual to have severe winters at all. Yet the early 1940s saw three in a row.

Given that reliable records don't go back ALL that far - say early 1600s in the best cases - we've only about 400 winters to reckon things against. So in that set of data points, just considering the three cold winters in the 1940s, and, say, the winters of 1739-41, you can say that 1.5% of winters were cold ones happening in consecutive years.

Then there's 1812-1817, and the winters of 1979-1982. We're looking at something around 5%. So it can certainly happen - indeed, given that I'm only skimming records I've found online, it's entirely possible that I'm underestimating that possibility.

The other side of the argument is that the weather in one year really doesn't have much of a bearing on the weather in the next. I'm not willing to say it's in coin toss territory, where one flip has zero effect on the next, but it may not be far off. There's far too much in the way of interference between March and October for any small-scale pattern to hold through, so we're stuck with the larger-scale patterns of climate. And those are REALLY hard to predict.

Conclusion: We can't really know until it happens, but we can't rule out the possibility of another very cold winter.

Deep Easterly · 09-09-2010 7:58pm

gothwalk wrote: »

The other side of the argument is that the weather in one year really doesn't have much of a bearing on the weather in the next. I'm not willing to say it's in coin toss territory, where one flip has zero effect on the next, but it may not be far off. There's far too much in the way of interference between March and October for any small-scale pattern to hold through, so we're stuck with the larger-scale patterns of climate. And those are REALLY hard to predict.

Top post, and one I largely agree with.

I am currently trying to do a personal study (I really need to find a job..:o) on the the possible effects of La Nina/El Nino on an Irish winter and will post results here when some sort of conclusion is reached. I am basing this study mostly on temp and SLP data from Valentia & Malin Head since 1956.

However, just looking at the winter temperature data in isolation from both Malin Head & Valentia, there is really nothing to suggest that cold winters will follow any particular precedent.

Looking at the average winter season temp anomaly from Valentia and Malin Head since 1956 in the chart above, it can be seen that a cold winter rarely occurs after a cold winter in the previous year, with the exception of the late 70's. Statistically, a more average winter is more likely to follow a cold one!

But that is just statisical nonsense. Chaotic forces when recorded will always establish a pattern over time, that is the nature of statistics, but it is a psuedo pattern which will prove nothing. The climate of Ireland is established from such. A nice straight statisical line that tries to decepher some sort of logic where none exists.

This winter could well be cold, it could well be mild. But personally I still think it will be ****e...:D

Lumi · 09-09-2010 9:31pm

gothwalk wrote: »

Conclusion: We can't really know until it happens, but we can't rule out the possibility of another very cold winter.

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This winter could well be cold, it could well be mild. But personally I still think it will be ****e...:D

Personally, I don't particularly care whether the coming winter is very cold or not. What I would like to see is the return of the Atlantic storms, howling winds, occasional dumps of snow and in a word the variety that once was the stuff of winters on the west coast.
Cold or not, I really can't face the prospect of another nonedescript, monochrome winter like the one just past.
Good luck with the study - sounds interesting

Deep Easterly · 09-09-2010 10:01pm

Fionagus wrote: »

Personally, I don't particularly care whether the coming winter is very cold or not. What I would like to see is the return of the Atlantic storms, howling winds, occasional dumps of snow and in a word the variety that once was the stuff of winters on the west coast.
Cold or not, I really can't face the prospect of another nonedescript, monochrome winter like the one just past.
Good luck with the study - sounds interesting

Thanks F, probably sounds more interesting than it will be and will probably be flawed right from the start as I am just using 2 parameters (surface temp and mean sea level pressure). The reason I am using Malin Head and Valentia in my 'study' is that they are on opposite ends of the country, which will prove useful regarding sea level pressure deviations. It will be interesting to see how many times Malin Head recorded a higher seasonal mean than Valentia (suggesting a negative NAO) and how this would coincide with not only the then current ENSO condition, but also what ENSO set up this followed on from in the months before hand.

For anyone who might be interested, this 1992 article, published in the International Journal of Climatology, gives a fair good insight on the same subject. It concludes that because Europe is at the furthest possible point away from the effects of Nino episodes it becomes almost futile to try and establish a link between them and NW European weather patterns; however, there is the suggestion that La Nina winters tend to have a more mobile, zonal flow running a little further north than normal.

This I want to try and see for myself in my little escapist project. It won't be anything overly scientific as that is not my incline, but hopefully it might be of interest to some.

Redsunset · 10-09-2010 12:50am

"One has to go back to 1955 to find stronger La Niña conditions for this time of year in the MEI record, and back to September-October 1975 for lower MEI values at any time of year."

In the context of recent plunge of the MEI into strong La Niña conditions, this section features a comparison figure with strong La Niña events that all reached at least minus one standard deviations by June-July, and a peak of at least -1.4 sigma over the course of an event. The most recent bigger La Niña events of 1998-2001 and 2007-09 did not qualify, since they either did not reach the required peak anomaly (the first one) or became strong too late in the calendar year (both).

The most recent (July-August) MEI value shows a continued drop from earlier this year, reaching -1.81, or 0.64 sigma below last month's value, and 2.35 standard deviations below April-May, both record-fast drops for this time of year. In fact, the three-month drop set a new all-time record for any time of year, beating a 2.33 sigma drop in 1998. The most recent MEI rank (2nd lowest) is clearly below the 10%-tile threshold for strong La Niña MEI rankings for this season. One has to go back to 1955 to find stronger La Niña conditions for this time of year in the MEI record, and back to September-October 1975 for lower MEI values at any time of year.

Negative SST anomalies have overspread much of the eastern (sub-)tropical Pacific in the latest weekly SST map.

Many of these anomalies are now in excess of -2C. For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, read the latest NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (5 August 2010),
La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter.

So there's a bit of info for you Deep,if you have not already come across it.

Interesing now to see how this plays out with global winter temps.

WolfeIRE · 10-09-2010 9:17am

Decemeber will be milder than normal but this is of course does not rule out colder outbreaks at any point.

Deep Easterly · 10-09-2010 10:31am

redsunset wrote: »

Interesing now to see how this plays out with global winter temps.

Sure will! Thanks for all that Redsunset.

Off the top of your head, do you think there is a connection between cold/warm nino episodes and increased probabilities of a negative winter season NAO?

Just looking at your first graph:

it almost seems a recurrent fact that colder winters in Ireland will more likely happen after an extented la nina spell which is entering a neutral or warmer anomaly. I am just looking at this at fact value though and looking particularly at 78/79, 85/86 and 2009/2010. Other cold winters, such as 62/63, seem to not follow this pattern though.

ECMWF Nino Plume August forecast seems a lot more conservative than the NWS/NCEP forecast regarding the continuation of depth of 3.4 region anomaly for this coming winter:

nino_plumes_public_s3%213.4%21201008%21chart.gif

nino_plumes_public_s3%213.4%21201008%21chart.gif

but interesting to see that both forecasts show no subtantial rise into the first quart of 2011.

Redsunset · 10-09-2010 11:32am

Well Deep as shown in the sun thread there is a correlation between Solar Sun spot cycles and El Niño events and every year following a minimum number of solar sun spots is an el niño year. The el niño events also happen at other times in between these 11 year cycles, but every solar minimum is associated with an el niño event.
Since the el niño event happens on the average about every 6 years the sun spots predict about half of them.

Also its more complicated than that because when in an easterly QBO state and low solar activity,it tends to support a negative Arctic oscillation.

The low solar activity could correlate with La Nina and a negative North atlantic oscillation.

Its all very much still up in the air though.

Read this http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/solarnao.htm

TheInquisitor · 10-09-2010 8:24pm

Time to RAMMMPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TheInquisitor · 11-09-2010 10:59pm

Possible cold spell in 5-9 days time. The ramping continues...*

*[Poster does know there is no chance of snow till at least end of December] :eek:

WolfeIRE · 13-09-2010 3:26pm

http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=307&type=home

this is the crowd who predicted last year's cold winter.
costs 4 euro though. i dont love snow that much

maquiladora · 15-09-2010 1:19pm

What do you make of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

gothwalk · 15-09-2010 1:39pm

maquiladora wrote: »

What do you make of this?

Crivens, I say.

I'd be a lot more convinced if it was presented in text with links, charts, etc.

However kooky the presentation, though, the reasoning is clear. I'm particularly interested by the graphics that looked like a heat map of the North Atlantic - I'm reasonably sure that those currents are what keep us from having a climate like that of Labrador.

I'm still taking it - as with any prediction further out than the day after tomorrow - with a pinch of salt, but I'd be interested to see more data.

nacho libre · 15-09-2010 1:59pm

It is interesting given Joe Bastardi has stated in two years time we are likely to experience a couple of severe winters in a row.
Given the effect of such activity tends to take time to materialise, if their hypothesis is actually correct, it's more likely to be next year or the year we see the consequences. So perhaps the guy depicted as a kook for suggesting something was amiss with the North Atlantic adrift was on to something afterall. In saying that though Bastardi has never mentioned any concerns he has about the gulf stream. Surely if he noticed something he'd be alerting people to it.

maquiladora · 15-09-2010 2:15pm

For what its worth this is the website from the guy who made that video above.

http://globalcoolingnewiceageuk.blogspot.com/

Haven't read it yet though.

15-09-2010 2:22pm

I think (hope) it's an exaggeration, just having the gulf stream's influance is worth at least 2-3C average winter temperature, without that winters will be cooler but not freezing. Increased cloud cover caused by reduced solar radiation may mean cooler days but less colder nights.

Combine those together with a La Nina and a high stuck over the Atlantic, then we're in for a real winter chill! Assuming normal westerly winds then it'll just be a couple of degrees cooler. Must stock up the fuel.

BEASTERLY · 15-09-2010 2:25pm

maquiladora wrote: »

What do you make of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

Isn't this what I got totally shot down for posting a couple of weeks ago?

Well the thing about the NAD anyway.

gothwalk · 15-09-2010 3:11pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I think (hope) it's an exaggeration, just having the gulf stream's influance is worth at least 2-3C average winter temperature, without that winters will be cooler but not freezing. Increased cloud cover caused by reduced solar radiation may mean cooler days but less colder nights.

I'm not convinced of this. Looking across the same latitude elsewhere on the planet, I'm seeing a lot of places that have much colder winters, even on the coasts.

However, even if the Gulf Stream being off only made for a change of 3 degrees, that will make a considerable difference to our usual January average of 4C. It would, for example, mean that many days would not get above freezing, rather than that being a very unusual event as it is now.

Also, increased cloud cover as discussed in that video is global, not local - since, as often repeated, climate is not weather, that doesn't mean that we'll get more cloud here (to be fair, I'm not sure how we could). It's possible that with no Gulf Stream, we'd have less cloud, although I don't venture to make that a solid prediction.

The issue with that presentation is not the reasoning of "if these things happen, we'll have colder winters", it's "can these things happen?". I've yet to see convincing evidence that the Gulf Stream can shut down, and yet to see convincing links between the La Nina or sunspot levels, and, well, anything here. Atmospheric shrinkage is not a thing I've even heard of before, and I've no idea what it would do. Increase average pressure worldwide? Expose us to more radiation? Expose us to less radiation? No idea.

Lumi · 15-09-2010 4:03pm

gothwalk wrote: »

Atmospheric shrinkage is not a thing I've even heard of before, and I've no idea what it would do. Increase average pressure worldwide? Expose us to more radiation? Expose us to less radiation? No idea.

There's a short discussion on the upper atmospheric shrinkage phenomenon Here
I've only skimmed through the article quickly but it's seems as if it's not thought to have a direct effect on the weather.

Winter 2010-2011 outlook

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