Winter 2010-2011 outlook

WolfeIRE

Interesting discussion about the coming winter on this snowboarding forum

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=65881&view=previous

makes some interesting points particularly:
"
Hi some more good snowy weather news. the soI index (southern oscillation index)has risen from +2 to +21 since june. Anything above +8 is a developing la nina. Here is a good web site to explain this www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7z.html anyone know of betting odds for big snow this year? "

Kippure

Here comes the cooling, Baby I aint fooling

Joe B

http://www.accuweather.com/video/587618582001/warmest-may-july-land-temps-n-hemisphere-i-agree-but.asp?channel=vbbastaj

WolfeIRE

sea ice comparisons for Aug 2010 and Aug 2007
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

Min

WolfeIRE wrote: »

sea ice comparisons for Aug 2010 and Aug 2007
http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg

I think those who say there will be an ice free Arctic in summer in the near future are deluded.

Redsunset

Here is an article showing typical conditions over europe over the coming months when in a weak El Nina.
However we look to be heading for a moderate to strong Nina and that will be covered in part 2 so watch this space.




The autumn and winter of Nina in Europe (Part 1 - Nina weak)



This article does not discuss the situation that will affect us in the coming months, but to delve into the " nina " analyzing what's happened in Europe during periods of weak nina .
We go from month to month ...
September:


The average is quite clear: a strong and frequent infiltration cold Scandinavian anticyclone in the Mediterranean area with consequent beginning of autumn well led .

October:



In October we have , by contrast, AO and NAO indices significantly positive resulting in a strong depression of Iceland and HP lying flat on Europe.

November:


It looks like a perfect month for pluviofili especially northern Italy , in fact there is a great Arctic sea tendency to sink to the Iberian peninsula sometimes affecting Italy .

December:



December, the first of the winter months , classical influence of weak nina allowing winters characterized by negative AO and NAO , you will see there is a certain similarity with the anomalies of this winter , they are virtually the opposite of the anomalies of the month October in years of weak nina .

On balance the autumns of nina are generally weak in average temperature and more rainfall than normal over the entire peninsula.
When you open a small parenthesis on successive winters here ... geopotential anomalies during December, January , in February :



Winter is characterized by largely negative AO and NAO with frequent cold waves of low infiltration and matrix Continental Atlantic .
After this part of autumn on nina weak, there will be the second to discuss the current situation, or events nina moderate / strong.

Lumi

Some discussion on the possible development and consequences of a 'super La Nina' here
http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2010/08/will-la-ninas-year-long-cooling-make.html
Pitched towards the layman but an interesting read nonetheless !

Slimity

Lads, presuming we're going to have a strong la nina effect this winter, what does that usually mean for us?

Were we in an el nino last year for the lenghty cold spell?

Thanks

derekon

One of the ladies in the shop where I work happened to say today that it was chilly last night with the darker evenings drawing in. Last year she was of the view that the winter of 09/10 would be cold. She mentioned today that she thinks the winter of 2010/11 will have more snow and there will be one or two real cold snaps....she might be onto something?

Derek

Deep Easterly

Slimity wrote: »

Lads, presuming we're going to have a strong la nina effect this winter, what does that usually mean for us?

Were we in an el nino last year for the lenghty cold spell?

Thanks

Yep, a fairly strong El Nino last winter. May well have had a bearing on the rather jarred pattern over the NE Atlantic that we have had for much of last winter and well into the spring.

Just looking at the NCEP nino index, I wonder myself just how much of an affect does an El Nino/La Nina have on an Irish winter?

Cold winters in Ireland:

62/63 occurred after an extended neutral period which developed into a La Nina in the summer of 62.

78/79 occurred in neutral conditions.

81/82 Neutral once again

85/86: Occurred in neutral conditions after moderate La nina.

08/09: as above!

09/10: El nino conditions.

There has been various cold spells within most winters but the above are most remembered I think. There dosen't seem to be any ENSO critera for us to get a cold winter in Ireland, although neutral conditions seem to be the most favourable, although even that could be just coincidence. The Irish weather will not follow any one rule it would seem.

WolfeIRE

have had a quick look at the gsf for Xmas day and there is a 90-99% chance of snow. of course, there is a small margin of error with the model output this far out:D

Actually, I am looking forward to the FI outlooks. The forum comes alive.

Some images from last winter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzevc1-JDFo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QASP3-yI3eI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNu2O9dfXIY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7b5rcamAVm8

Redsunset

Ramping in AUGUST:D:D

It's gonna be mental round here come December.;)

Loved the cobh vid as i was staying there couple weeks ago while working in Fota Island.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Ramping in AUGUST:D:D

It's gonna be mental round here come December.;)

Loved the cobh vid as i was staying there couple weeks ago while working in Fota Island.

We should ramp away !

Lets be honest - this forum truly comes alive in winter with the prospects of snow.

I am predicting a freezing winter this year for most of Ireland with more snow than last year...bring it on!

Derek

Gonzo

for once I think that this Winter is gonna be really cold as well, normally I am thinking mild wet muck.

isle of man

its going to be a mild wet winter,
no snow no big frezze at all

Min

Joe Bastardi says he is busy at the moment but will do his winter outlook before the end of the month.

nacho libre

the stats' are against us having a predominantly cold winter.:( still, even in a mild winter we nearly always get at least one cold snap during february

fishmahboi

nacho libre wrote: »

the stats' are against us having a predominantly cold winter.:( still, even in a mild winter we nearly always get at least one cold snap during february

Weathergossip says that the winter will be mild but with some cold snaps

jambofc

a lot of signs now that we are heading for our usual wet n dreary irish winter,on a positive note ive had more snow in this area in a normal irish winter than i did last year.

lord lucan

fishmahboi wrote: »

Weathergossip says that the winter will be mild but with some cold snaps

Sounds good to me.:)

derekon

jambofc wrote: »

a lot of signs now that we are heading for our usual wet n dreary irish winter,on a positive note ive had more snow in this area in a normal irish winter than i did last year.

Hey Jambo, its only the 4th September and already I am hearing that defeatist "why does it not snow in my area" tone (I remember your posts from last year when Dublin was plastered with snow yet you missed out)

Don't be defeatist yet - lets all chat mid December and get a real grip on what is to come for Ireland's winter of 2010 - 2011

I still think we are in for a cold one

Derek

hotwhiskey

As i live in the stick's, last year people were remarking on the amount of berry's on the tree's and in some cases hedges in fields were completely red. I,m know spring chicken and have seen some bad winter's in my life time, my grandfather would always go on what the Autumn would through up for the birds in terms of food and last year was a classic example more feeding makes for a harsher winter.

I know it's a bit early but it's nothing in comparison to this time last year the next three to four weeks will show it true colour's or not.

At the moment I'm going on a normal winter "wet and windy" with brief cold snaps.

Deep Easterly

I think this type of set up will be the dominant winter 2010/11 theme:



high pressure to our near south killing off any storm potential and any chance of polar or continental incursions; on the plus side, it should be on the mild, if cloudy side for much of the season with just the risk of the odd patch of drizzle in the west :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think this type of set up will be the dominant winter 2010/11 theme:



high pressure to our near south killing off any storm potential and any chance of polar or continental incursions; on the plus side, it should be on the mild, if cloudy side for much of the season with just the risk of the odd patch of drizzle in the west :rolleyes::rolleyes:

I know that the weather in the West of late has taught us to 'expect nothing lest ye be disappointed' but this is taking pessimism to a whole new level:eek:;)

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

I know that the weather in the West of late has taught us to 'expect nothing lest ye be disappointed' but this is taking pessimism to a whole new level:eek:;)

I nominate this (strangely beautiful) tune to be our winter anthem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHRNLzEAUfg

Works well as a aural accompanient to the visual abomination of that chart posted above. :cool:

Lumi

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I nominate this (strangely beautiful) tune to be our winter anthem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHRNLzEAUfg

Works well as a aural accompanient to the visual abomination of that chart posted above. :cool:

The charts and aural accompaniment have cruelly excised any naive optimism regarding the forthcoming winter (leafs through photos of winters past and weeps silently) Thanks Patrick !!

Chicken Run

to add my 2p worth - judging by the amount of berries and sloes in the hedges (shedloads) I reckon it's gonna be another deep freeze similar to last year's.

Must lag the water pipes more !!!!!!

Deep Easterly

Fionagus wrote: »

The charts and aural accompaniment have cruelly excised any naive optimism regarding the forthcoming winter (leafs through photos of winters past and weeps silently) Thanks Patrick !!

Your welcome! :D

Lumi

Chicken Run wrote: »

to add my 2p worth - judging by the amount of berries and sloes in the hedges (shedloads) I reckon it's gonna be another deep freeze similar to last !!

My Nan used to say 'many haws, many sloes, many cold toes!'

Chicken Run

Fionagus wrote: »

My Nan used to say 'many haws, many sloes, many cold toes!'

"Many sloes, plenty of sloe-gin"

(purely medicinal of course *cough*)

BEASTERLY

Chicken Run wrote: »

to add my 2p worth - judging by the amount of berries and sloes in the hedges (shedloads) I reckon it's gonna be another deep freeze similar to last year's.

Must lag the water pipes more !!!!!!

Hoe does the weather that is yet to happen have any sort of effect on the growth of plants and their fruit?