Winter 2010-2011 outlook

darkman2

Im going for an equally if not colder winter this year then last. Too tired to explain now.

Lumi

darkman2 wrote: »

Im going for an equally if not colder winter this year then last. Too tired to explain now.

We can but hope ....:pac:

CJWRC94

darkman2 wrote: »

Im going for an equally if not colder winter this year then last. Too tired to explain now.

Can explain when your more up to it?

I'm sceptical at best , I think were clutching at starws though , would love some concrete evidence.

One thing I don't get is people saying that it will be mild because of the chances of two severe winters in a row are so slim. Since when do chance and records control the atmosphere?

WolfeIRE

JOE BASTARDI latest posts

THURSDAY 7 PM THAT CFS BETTER NOT HAPPEN!
The more I look at this, the more I think... this better not happen. It is startling what is being forecast in that model. Absolutely astonishing. The Hansen based GISS, which is being used as the warmingista community as the go-to temperature basis, was the one that had almost the whole globe blazing red this winter, especially the Arctic... Remember. Now think about this, if we look at the objective sat temps here:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_10.gif
and we assume that the fierce red the Hansen based group has is correct, then we come up with their representation leading to a global temperatures of plus .6 C or so. But that was with the Earth on fire according to them. So mind you, I am simply comparing what they want us to use, though to be sure it involves some "adjustment" of temperatures.
But here is how they get burned. Suppose the model is right on what is coming... or even half right. Most of the Earth is blue... the Arctic is blue, the Antarctic blue... it's the... ahem... polar opposite of last year.
Just what the heck is that saying about the globl temperatures? That is what is so startling. That model is cold well beyond what I looked for as a drop (down to near or below normal for next year), but not a three-month period that looks like it's from Ice Station Zebra...
Again, people want to claim I am not using GISS data, they want that to be the official data. Well then, if the set-the-world-on-fire GISS data from last winter is what you want to use and we were at plus .6 or so, then what are we going to be at if the almighty climate model is right? Again, I think it's overdone, but lord help us if it isn't.
In the years I have been watching the CFS, the cold period in early 2008 after the last El Nino looked like this: (note... make sure you connect the entire lettering at the end)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst_history/200801/imag es/glbT2mSea.girly
As cold as the forecast for Jan-Mar 2011. Tomorrow I will line them up on a video and put it on the free site for you to see.
How ironic, eh? You want to use that GISS data that was burning the Arctic last year. Okay, last winter gave us plus .6. What is going to happen if this thing is even half right this winter for that global temperature?

Ciao for now. ****

THURSDAY 1 AM LONDON TIME
THE CLIMATE MODEL SEES THE COMING CRASH.
Think the markets are in the tank? Wait till you global temperature watchers get a load of what is coming. Even the models are catching on. In the forecast, below on this link, blue represents cold and the tannish to orange colors warm...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.g if
Note: please make sure the gif (last 3 characters) are together. I have heard tell that they skip... with the g separate from the if.
Now I just heard someone who obviously doesn't agree with me, and has labeled me the world's worst forecaster, is ranting at me that I am wrong. Well, I am either wrong, or right, and we will see. But the drastic drop being portrayed here is something akin to the kind of cooling we saw with Pinatubo. The screamers either are in denial, or know it's coming (I think a lot of them do) and are making hay while the sun shines (it's warm). But my readers know that was forecast also, that there would be a huge push with the warm summer and the hurricane season (which, by the way, were predicted here too).
Now let me say this about the model. It looks rather extreme. I mean, both poles cold, and then 75 percent of the Earth under normal? Geez, I know there is cooling that is going to go on, but this is a bit drastic. But still I think you get the point. If it's the almighty climate models that are the reason to keep forecasting warm, and they are showing this kind of crash (such an event could take the running 13-month temperature of the Earth next year to -.2, or -.3... as this La Nina, low solar cyclone, and cumulative volcanic activity means business, then things may be quicker than I thought. But it is interesting, for someone like me who is supposed to be so bad, to now have the models seeing what I was saying from a few months ago about what lurked beyond this Nino spike, to have the kind of vitriol I hear coming my way.
Why so tense? If you are right, and I am wrong... then you will have no greater ally than me. However, I suspect that if I AM RIGHT, I won't be able to say the same about folks who seem to think that no matter what happens, they have to have their way.
Sounds rather childish.
We will see where the temperatures are a year from now, and what they do over the coming decades.

Ciao for now. ****
TUESDAY NOON LONDON TIME.
Enjoying this summer? Arctic sea ice right where it should be!
Let's see, 4F above normal, precip 26%. If anything, I was not warm enough and not dry enough. However fear not, we still have the rest of the summer to go and the forecast for a bit warmer, by drier than normal looks good. I hope everyone is barbecuing. And you should enjoy it, another colder-than-normal winter is on the way.
The site:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_area.png
shows my sea ice forecast this year is spot on. (If you were reading earlier, I expected a big drop that would get it below last year but not as low as 2007). And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that don't understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade. Sad to say the ice will rebuild... two steps forward one step back.
But I have observed the cackling of delight at the demise of the ice cap this summer with amusement. Because 1) The THICKNESS OF THE ICE is greater and 2) The Polar temps, courtesy of the cooling that is starting are lower than normal this summer.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
All one need do is some deductive reasoning (if you knew what was coming, and one comes up with a logical conclusion). In fact, a look at the site cryosphere today shows that amazingly the Northern Hemisphere sea ice, though well below normal, may have already reached its low point, and it was even to last year (if this is right, I actually over estimated melt).
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
Now I will keep making forecasts from time to time, then you can judge on what is right or wrong. It seems though that either I have Rasputin whispering in my ear, or some things said months before seem to have a way of showing up. I will have to trust you were reading earlier on these matters; if not, well nothing I can do about that.
In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold.
Ciao for now.

Kippure

CJWRC94 wrote: »

Can explain when your more up to it?

I'm sceptical at best , I think were clutching at starws though , would love some concrete evidence.

One thing I don't get is people saying that it will be mild because of the chances of two severe winters in a row are so slim. Since when do chance and records control the atmosphere?

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj



This may clear your confussion up

WolfeIRE

Saw this explanation of the coming winter for UK. Does this synopsis stand up do you think?

The Winter forecast for London, UK for the 2010 - 2011 Winter expect below avg. temperatures and above average snow. The reason this is going to happen is that the La Nina weather phenomenon is now building in the Eastern Pacific and should continue until next Spring. For Canada this always brings more weather systems out of the North West resulting in colder temps & more snowfall. Then once the Low pressure area leaves Canada it picks up some extra energy from the Atlantic Ocean and by the time the Low hits the UK is is colder than normal and drops more snow than normal.

another view

it is expected to be another cold winter and with the atlantic expected to be more stronger, that coudl mean some big snow totals again. this winter was severe and the atlantic was very weak. if you listen to the news you would know it is the driest year since 1929. the atlantic has been dead, yet we managed to get some big snow totals in the uk. just imagine, next winter ,a stronger atlantic, bumping into cold air, equals large snow amounts. winter 2010/11 here we come...

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Saw this explanation of the coming winter for UK. Does this synopsis stand up do you think?

The Winter forecast for London, UK for the 2010 - 2011 Winter expect below avg. temperatures and above average snow. The reason this is going to happen is that the La Nina weather phenomenon is now building in the Eastern Pacific and should continue until next Spring. For Canada this always brings more weather systems out of the North West resulting in colder temps & more snowfall. Then once the Low pressure area leaves Canada it picks up some extra energy from the Atlantic Ocean and by the time the Low hits the UK is is colder than normal and drops more snow than normal.

another view

it is expected to be another cold winter and with the atlantic expected to be more stronger, that coudl mean some big snow totals again. this winter was severe and the atlantic was very weak. if you listen to the news you would know it is the driest year since 1929. the atlantic has been dead, yet we managed to get some big snow totals in the uk. just imagine, next winter ,a stronger atlantic, bumping into cold air, equals large snow amounts. winter 2010/11 here we come...

I may be wrong but the above scenarios would more likely bring milder conditions to Ireland. If I remember rightly, the winters of 2007/2008-2008/2009 were La Nina ones as well and they were nothing spectacular.

All depends on what track these exiting lows from Canada take of course, they may well take a more southerly root and pull in some decent continental cold (which would favour UK for snow rather than us) but more than likely lows will track to the north. Better chance of storms should they do at least.

WolfeIRE

Joe B on a global warming rant
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

WolfeIRE

interesting long range site here shows below normal temps for dublin for the coming winter

http://www.longrangeweather.com/weather-forecasts/European-City.aspx

WolfeIRE

From Welsh-based Positive Weather Solutions

"As far as Winter 2010/11 goes, a very good percentage is showing for a 'White Christmas' and we expect this coming Winter to be as brutal as last year's, which we predicted very accurately indeed, right down to the prolonged cold temperatures extending into March".



Autumn 2010

September

An unsettled start to the month with a mixture of dry weather, but also some showers or longer spells of rain around. It is possible to see temperatures still on the warm side at the start of September, but this will be short lived. By mid month, Atlantic weather fronts will take hold, meaning a run of unsettled weather with some wet and windy conditions, possibly quite stormy. By the latter part of the month, the wet and windy weather will continue to dominate, which may lead to flooding problems in some areas. Across the month though, temperatures will on or around the average, with rainfall for the bulk of the UK on the average. Northwestern parts probably seeing above average rainfall, on the average elsewhere.

October

October starts on an unsettled note, but it will quickly settle down, and turn a lot more settled. Temperatures on or around the average at the start of October. By mid month, the dry and settled weather will still be very much in evidence, with some pleasant autumn sunshine. Temperatures again, around where they should be for the time of year. There will be no sign of any significant rainfall as October continues, so expect a dry end to the month with further spells of sunshine, and average values temperature wise. Particularly dry to the north and west, slightly less so to the south and east. Over all, a very dry month, with temperatures on the average.

November

An unsettled start to the month as once again, the Atlantic takes hold of our weather, so expect a wet and windy phase of weather, possible stormy. Temperatures will start on and slightly above average. By mid month, things will continue rather wet, so flooding may well be a possibility, accompanied by some strong winds. Temperatures again, on or slightly above the average. Despite some drier and brighter days throughout November, the month generally ends on a wet note, but with signs of improvement into December, with temperatures showing the same pattern. Over all, average to above average rainfall for many areas, but a milder than average month, especially for Wales and southern England.

NETWEATHER
Autumn
September & October
As usual at this sort of range, confidence really tends to fall away and moreso on this update as even August is causing some real headaches from a forecasting perspective. Currently, September is anticipated to be another drier than average month, with October perhaps reversing that trend and seeing rainfall totals close to or above average quite widely. Temperatures are expected to be close to average in September but a little way above average in October.

nacho libre

don't correct me if 'm wrong, but didn't they(positive solutions) predict a barbecue summer this year- well, i guess if they were forecasting only for the London area they maybe right.

still they did get it right about last winter so hopefully they are right about next winter!

WolfeIRE

Yes Nacho you are right. they did not include Ireland in their summer forecast.

derekon

Folks,

My own view is that we are in for another very cold winter with plenty of frost and snow.

I think we were spoiled over the last decade with mild winters and I think now Ireland is returning to somewhat normal winters it had in the past - I remember as a kid in the 50's that the canals here in Dublin regularly froze over. Even in the 80's and 90's you were guaranteed some snow in Dublin each year. This has not necessarily been the case over the past decade.

Weather moves in cycles and its my own view that we are now moving into a cooling trend here in Ireland.

Watch this winter - we are in for another cold one so have your gloves and snow boots ready!

Derek

Danno

Reading through some of the quotes made on this thread, Ireland fits into the category of North Western Britain.

1] We can get a regime known as Cold Zonal which brings different scenarios to the regions in Ireland.

Cold Zonal patterns often see the triple point (where the warm front and cold front meet) pass to the south of us, meaning not much milder air gets caught up in the mix within the front (usually the purple part on Met Eireann's charts). This is better in the chances for snow, but only occasionally. The origination of the low pressure and the sea track of these systems are crucial in determining snow.

IIRC, in 1993 we had a reasonable amount of Cold Zonal snow because the low pressure systems formed over Greenland and dived SSE over Ireland. The front would come in over Donegal/Derry and exit over Wexford/Waterford, with the warm sector and triple points staying off the Kerry coast. It is a setup I have not seen since in winter since and it seems a hard config to get.

Now cold zonal is a difficult beast to get, but it is the best for delivering the most widespread snow to this island.

2] An active atlantic is not good for us generally, even with a Cold Britain, we usually stay on the warm side of the fronts with the warm sector rushing up the Irish Sea. Go inland past the Welsh border and it's snow, west of that it's rain. This is an all-to-common look at those lucky feckers in England getting snowed out of it! The reason for this is... To our south is a large body of water (The Celtic Sea) extending the whole way to N. Spain.

Alot of mild gets sucked up from the seas (usually 10c or more in winter) and thaws the snow to rain above our heads. In Britain, their south is a cold landmass known as France. In effect the winds suck in cold air off France and preserve the snow above their heads. Add a small bit of moisture from the English Channel and it intensifies the snow there, giving them 6, 7 or 8 inches in a dump from a warm front!

This lasts only at best 18 hours before the milder Irish air pushes in over them resulting in slush and melt. Very rarely will the fronts retreat west again or fizzle out leaving cold air over them.

3] A high pressure to the NE is great for Leinster and especially the east coast. This brings heavy snow showers as we seen this winter gone. But there is another treat this setup rarely brings which gives us collosal amounts of snow. This is where a NW France low pressure sucks in moisture off the Bay of Biscay, mixes it with some heat from S france and swings the whole kit and kaboodle into that east wind which chills it, sends it over cornwall and into Ireland... these setups bring 1947 style snow and for it to stay, the high pressure must extend west after it to preserve the cold east wind, effectivly banning any possible thaw.

derekon

Danno wrote: »

Reading through some of the quotes made on this thread, Ireland fits into the category of North Western Britain.

1] We can get a regime known as Cold Zonal which brings different scenarios to the regions in Ireland.

Cold Zonal patterns often see the triple point (where the warm front and cold front meet) pass to the south of us, meaning not much milder air gets caught up in the mix within the front (usually the purple part on Met Eireann's charts). This is better in the chances for snow, but only occasionally. The origination of the low pressure and the sea track of these systems are crucial in determining snow.

IIRC, in 1993 we had a reasonable amount of Cold Zonal snow because the low pressure systems formed over Greenland and dived SSE over Ireland. The front would come in over Donegal/Derry and exit over Wexford/Waterford, with the warm sector and triple points staying off the Kerry coast. It is a setup I have not seen since in winter since and it seems a hard config to get.

Now cold zonal is a difficult beast to get, but it is the best for delivering the most widespread snow to this island.

2] An active atlantic is not good for us generally, even with a Cold Britain, we usually stay on the warm side of the fronts with the warm sector rushing up the Irish Sea. Go inland past the Welsh border and it's snow, west of that it's rain. This is an all-to-common look at those lucky feckers in England getting snowed out of it! The reason for this is... To our south is a large body of water (The Celtic Sea) extending the whole way to N. Spain.

Alot of mild gets sucked up from the seas (usually 10c or more in winter) and thaws the snow to rain above our heads. In Britain, their south is a cold landmass known as France. In effect the winds suck in cold air off France and preserve the snow above their heads. Add a small bit of moisture from the English Channel and it intensifies the snow there, giving them 6, 7 or 8 inches in a dump from a warm front!

This lasts only at best 18 hours before the milder Irish air pushes in over them resulting in slush and melt. Very rarely will the fronts retreat west again or fizzle out leaving cold air over them.

3] A high pressure to the NE is great for Leinster and especially the east coast. This brings heavy snow showers as we seen this winter gone. But there is another treat this setup rarely brings which gives us collosal amounts of snow. This is where a NW France low pressure sucks in moisture off the Bay of Biscay, mixes it with some heat from S france and swings the whole kit and kaboodle into that east wind which chills it, sends it over cornwall and into Ireland... these setups bring 1947 style snow and for it to stay, the high pressure must extend west after it to preserve the cold east wind, effectivly banning any possible thaw.

Brilliant explanations Danno and thanks for taking the time to explain. As I live in Dublin, this winter I will be looking for the optimum scenario....ie a High to the North East and a Low Pressure system to the North West of France !

Derek

BEASTERLY

This doesn't look too bad at all now:

euT2mMon.gif

WolfeIRE

JOE B

HEY ALL YOU ICE LOVERS.. A GREAT LINK TO WATCH THE ICE GLOBALLY
http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/
Cut away the rhetoric, and go to the facts on GLOBAL sea ice by looking at everything.

BTW.. one of the charts, the DMI polar temps shows the refusal of polar temps to reach normal this summer. Its too early to say if the current drop off is the start of the seasonal decline, but its obvious now what is going on up there as far as the start of the turn to cooler that will be going on globally.
Lets remember, that the scoring point for the summer forecast is London where in spite of the inclement weather that has struck much of GB and Ireland the past week to 10 days, we continue to run way above normal temp and below normal precip. Overall the pattern in nw europe the rest of the summer is warmer than normal, but its the continent into western Russia that will bake the worst. Wont quite get to 2003, but will be very warm. BTW, this is common, and I brought this up in the summer idea I had for you back before the season. I dont know how many of you read it, but the reversal of the el nino and the warm mediterranean were big keys to a warm summer in much of Europe.. and that is what set up in 2003!
Reversing nino, warm med, warm amo... well you get the picture.


ciao for now ****

WolfeIRE

JOE B

MONDAY 11:30 PM
GLOBAL TEMPS GO BELOW LAST YEAR!
For the first time this year, the global temps have retreated below last years level.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
In addition the polar temp is almost 2f below normal now and is very close to freezing

http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/
scroll down to find.
ciao for now ****

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

JOE B

MONDAY 11:30 PM
GLOBAL TEMPS GO BELOW LAST YEAR!
For the first time this year, the global temps have retreated below last years level.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
In addition the polar temp is almost 2f below normal now and is very close to freezing

http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/
scroll down to find.
ciao for now ****

Ice Ice baby

LOL!

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi

WolfeIRE

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
You have to understand, 2C below normal at the warmest time of the year, or 2C above normal at this time of the year, is a much greater variance than the big swings at the cold time of the year. You should go back and look at their data back to 1958 and you will be hard pressed to find a colder summer in the Arctic through this time of the year! - JOE B



Interesting El Nino discussion on coming winter, albeit centred around North America, here.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=18806&st=80

Deep Easterly

La Nina is forecast to remain in full swing this coming winter:

derekon

Deep Easterly wrote: »

La Nina is forecast to remain in full swing this coming winter:

Will this mean a colder than average winter for Ireland ?

Lets be honest, all us weather lovers are excited at the prospects for the coming winter with regards to snow & ice !

Derek

WolfeIRE

derekon wrote: »

Will this mean a colder than average winter for Ireland ?

Lets be honest, all us weather lovers are excited at the prospects for the coming winter with regards to snow & ice !

Derek

it is one of the key conditions that would make a prolonged colder than normal winter more likely.

derekon

WolfeIRE wrote: »

it is one of the key conditions that would make a prolonged colder than normal winter more likely.

Thanks WolfIre

D

desolate sun

We were just talking about last winter and the frozen lake and river and the dry snow and the wonderful white Christmas. I was so delighted to see this thread and to see the optimistic predictions for snow. Last winter it was like a glorious door to the past was opened and I stepped inside to find the winter wonderlands of my youth.
The thoughts that this coming winter could be filled with the same magical potential is just too much! But I will be following this thread closely all the same. And learning lots of interesting meterological info and "impressing" my friends!
Roll on the winter.....

PS All scientific analysis aside, what does the postman predict

WolfeIRE

http://www.accuweather.com/video/260789099001/monday-global-ice-temp-report.asp

global ice/temp video from joe b

nacho libre

desolate sun wrote: »

We were just talking about last winter and the frozen lake and river and the dry snow and the wonderful white Christmas. I was so delighted to see this thread and to see the optimistic predictions for snow. Last winter it was like a glorious door to the past was opened and I stepped inside to find the winter wonderlands of my youth.
The thoughts that this coming winter could be filled with the same magical potential is just too much! But I will be following this thread closely all the same. And learning lots of interesting meterological info and "impressing" my friends!
Roll on the winter.....

PS All scientific analysis aside, what does the postman predict

he predicts a warm and dry august. he hasn't said anything about winter yet. i wouldn't get your hopes up about next winter - last winter was a once in 50 year kind of event:(

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

he predicts a warm and dry august. he hasn't said anything about winter yet. i wouldn't get your hopes up about next winter - last winter was a once in 50 year kind of event:(

Im sure there were plenty of 50 year periods in history without a really cold winter, there must be a few extras due by now!!!

Duiske

An interesting piece here on the coming N Hemisphere winter.

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

After reading what this guy and Joe B and co have to say,I'm starting to think we should be careful what we wish for. :eek:

delw

Duiske wrote: »

An interesting piece here on the coming N Hemisphere winter.

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

After reading what this guy and Joe B and co have to say,I'm starting to think we should be careful what we wish for. :eek:

yeah duiske,interesting alright