Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Kippure

maquiladora wrote: »

What do you make of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

Nicely explained. Makes alot of sense.

dexter647

maquiladora wrote: »

What do you make of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76sS7bqw9Z8

Thats scary stuff if all factual and correct

derekon

I think people have got somewhat complacent about Irish winters with the ongoing notiion that what happened last winter could not happen again.

However we seem to forget that weather goes in cycles. Back in the 60's,70's and 80's Ireland saw snow every winter along with frequent frosts and temps in and around freezing.

Watch this space folks. I think we are in for a very cold winter ahead. The island is returning to the past...........

Derek

Min

A cold winter again - prediction based on sunspots or the lack of acne on the sun.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/09/say-goodbye-to-sunspots.html

dexter647

Min wrote: »

A cold winter again - prediction based on sunspots or the lack of acne on the sun.

http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/09/say-goodbye-to-sunspots.html

Very interesting piece:)

maquiladora

Joe Bastardi European winter forecast doesn't sound great for snowlovers here!

I don't think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more thing... precipitation will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter.

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Joe Bastardi European winter forecast doesn't sound great for snowlovers here!

Well, it's quite likely after two cold winters in succession that next Winter will prove to be more of what we are accustomed to.

Still a normal winter can be good news for snowlovers. Sometimes in winters, where southwesterlies are prevalent, we can get some brief cold snaps that lead to decent falls of snow. Indeed it would be unusual, even in a predominantly mild winter, not to get at least a couple of snow days in February.

Redsunset

Last winter despite a strong El Nino was very cold (all-time coldest in some areas) in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

A strong La Nina has come on during the summer, a very hot one (all-time in some of the very same areas where the winter was very cold). Other areas had record cool summer. The anomalies were not so much a case of extremes just persistence of the same pattern due to a stuck jet stream configuration.

Persistence is a characteristic of low solar years. The last several years have seen a lot of persistence within seasons. Strong El Ninos and La Ninas also tend to exhibit higher persistence.

What about this winter? Well with a strong La Nina, cold PDO, warm Atlantic (AMO), QBO transitioning to westerly and a still low solar suggests the following.

The 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the globe for December/January:


Click the link to find out

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Last winter despite a strong El Nino was very cold (all-time coldest in some areas) in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

A strong La Nina has come on during the summer, a very hot one (all-time in some of the very same areas where the winter was very cold). Other areas had record cool summer. The anomalies were not so much a case of extremes just persistence of the same pattern due to a stuck jet stream configuration.

Persistence is a characteristic of low solar years. The last several years have seen a lot of persistence within seasons. Strong El Ninos and La Ninas also tend to exhibit higher persistence.

What about this winter? Well with a strong La Nina, cold PDO, warm Atlantic (AMO), QBO transitioning to westerly and a still low solar suggests the following.

The 500mb geopotential height anomalies for the globe for December/January:


Click the link to find out

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/WINTER_201011.pdf

So simply put, we are in for a repeat of the winter of 2009 / 2010 with sub zero temperatures, ice, hard frosts and snow?

I think all my Christmases have come at once!! :cool:

Derek

thetonynator

derekon wrote: »

So simply put, we are in for a repeat of the winter of 2009 / 2010 with sub zero temperatures, ice, hard frosts and snow?

I think all my Christmases have come at once!! :cool:

Derek

well maybe not as much . . .and the cold weather / snow will prob arrive later . . .

patneve2

The coming winter will be nowhere near what happened during the last winter season. I have the serious feeling high pressure anomalies will continue, but will be further east this year, giving us a frosty and dry winter. Expect high pressures over UK/Ireland leading to cold blasts in South-Eastern Europe.

Deep Easterly

thetonynator wrote: »

well maybe not as much . . .and the cold weather / snow will prob arrive later . . .

The charts posted up on that article seem to suggest a cold zonal winter for Ireland. Stormy and cold with frequent polar lows bearing down over the country.

Should put a smile on Nacho Libre's face anyway..;)

maquiladora

Interesting thing I noticed on the netweather forums :


Moving onto the NAO what's notable when looked at over a longer timeframe is how persistantly negative it has been this year . If we were to want the NAO to continue to be negative over winter then looking in the past it's only 68-69 and 62-63 which saw anything this big last for over 12 months.
It might happen, but it's a very big ask.


I know more things than the NAO being right are needed for a snowy/severe winter but I thought that was interesting considering 62/63 was an infamous winter and from what I've seen 68/69 seemed to have more snow than usual (at least for the UK, don't know about here?).

nacho libre

I came across this recently on yahoo answers:

The Winter forecast for London, UK for the 2010 - 2011 Winter expect below avg. temperatures and above average snow. The reason this is going to happen is that the La Nina weather phenomenon is now building in the Eastern Pacific and should continue until next Spring. For Canada this always brings more weather systems out of the North West resulting in colder temps & more snowfall. Then once the Low pressure area leaves Canada it picks up some extra energy from the Atlantic Ocean and by the time the Low hits the UK is is colder than normal and drops more snow than normal.

Is this too simplistic a conclusion to draw as a result of a strong La Nina?

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

I came across this recently on yahoo answers:

The Winter forecast for London, UK for the 2010 - 2011 Winter expect below avg. temperatures and above average snow. The reason this is going to happen is that the La Nina weather phenomenon is now building in the Eastern Pacific and should continue until next Spring. For Canada this always brings more weather systems out of the North West resulting in colder temps & more snowfall. Then once the Low pressure area leaves Canada it picks up some extra energy from the Atlantic Ocean and by the time the Low hits the UK is is colder than normal and drops more snow than normal.

Is this too simplistic a conclusion to draw as a result of a strong La Nina?

Hmmm. If the lows are coming over the Atlantic and crossing the UK doesn't that mean there wouldn't be blocking in place and therefore it wouldn't be very cold here?

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

The charts posted up on that article seem to suggest a cold zonal winter for Ireland. Stormy and cold with frequent polar lows bearing down over the country.

Should put a smile on Nacho Libre's face anyway..;)

i certainly could do with the distraction from the stomach cramps and feelings of weakness i've been having of late. perhaps it's snow withdrawal symptoms i'm suffering from. :pac:

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmm. If the lows are coming over the Atlantic and crossing the UK doesn't that mean there wouldn't be blocking in place and therefore it wouldn't be very cold here?

well perhaps the lp systems coming from the north west would draw in cold air from the north atlantic once they pass through? i think paddy1 mentioned a winter like this in 1984. from what i've read, strong la nina's don't seem to be conducive to continental blocks forming over us. although i could well be wrong about that.

maquiladora

Imagine the kind of threads you'd see in this place if something like this happened :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-gRb_MuUgg

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Imagine the kind of threads you'd see in this place if something like this happened :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-gRb_MuUgg

i wouldn't want to display my enthusiasm for snow in front of that guy with the shovel at 4 minutes 17. i must admit a situation like that would test your love of snow.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i certainly could do with the distraction from the stomach cramps and feelings of weakness i've been having of late. perhaps it's snow withdrawal symptoms i'm suffering from. :pac:

Maybe so! Hope it is nothing too serious that is wrong with you Mr. Mayo.

desolate sun

*WARNING - This post contains Totally Unscientific Data*

I went for a walk yesterday in a wooded area and there were holly trees full of berries. I don't know if this is nature's response to last winter or preparing for the coming winter but it put a smile on my face anyway!

WolfeIRE

article from the Daily Mail here. It was in the Mail so it must be true :rolleyes:

Having said that I had the biggest crop of apples ever this year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1310670/Cold-winter-mixed-summer-brings-bumper-berry-crop.html

rhonin

WolfeIRE wrote: »

article from the Daily Mail here. It was in the Mail so it must be true :rolleyes:

Having said that I had the biggest crop of apples ever this year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1310670/Cold-winter-mixed-summer-brings-bumper-berry-crop.html

The daily mail has a science section :eek:

desolate sun

desolate sun wrote: »

*WARNING - This post contains Totally Unscientific Data*

I went for a walk yesterday in a wooded area and there were holly trees full of berries. I don't know if this is nature's response to last winter or preparing for the coming winter but it put a smile on my face anyway!

I think it's just the result of a perfect (for plants) summer!

WolfeIRE

Ken Ring's long range forecast

http://www.todayfm.com/Shows/Weekdays/Matt-Cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/10-09-16/Ken_Ring_weather_prediction_latest.aspx?ReturnURL=%2FShows%2FWeekdays%2FMatt-Cooper%2FMatt-Cooper-Blog.aspx

Speak Now

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Ken Ring's long range forecast

http://www.todayfm.com/Shows/Weekdays/Matt-Cooper/Matt-Cooper-Blog/10-09-16/Ken_Ring_weather_prediction_latest.aspx?ReturnURL=%2FShows%2FWeekdays%2FMatt-Cooper%2FMatt-Cooper-Blog.aspx

Link is blocked, what's he saying?

maquiladora

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Link is blocked, what's he saying?

Dry October, cold end to the month.
Snow flurries in November.
Overcast December, rain.
Doesn't expect white christmas, colder in the new year but mainly dry.

gothwalk

maquiladora wrote: »

Dry October, cold end to the month.
Snow flurries in November.
Overcast December, rain.
Doesn't expect white christmas, colder in the new year but mainly dry.

Also a few choice lines about the moon in the North driving the wind.

I hadn't actually heard him before, but he's now firmly in the astrology and homeopathy camp as far as I'm concerned.

Speak Now

maquiladora wrote: »

Dry October, cold end to the month.
Snow flurries in November.
Overcast December, rain.
Doesn't expect white christmas, colder in the new year but mainly dry.

I've never seen a White Christmas :pac:

desolate sun

maquiladora wrote: »

Dry October, cold end to the month.
Snow flurries in November.
Overcast December, rain.
Doesn't expect white christmas, colder in the new year but mainly dry.

Booooo! What a non-descript excuse for a winter. Did Mr Ring predict the Big Freeze we had last year?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember a very dry October last year too?