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Winter 2010-2011 outlook
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desolate sun wrote: »Booooo! What a non-descript excuse for a winter. Did Mr Ring predict the Big Freeze we had last year?
There is a 3 year 'window of opportunity' with Ken's premonitions, if it doesn't happen this winter it may have happened in the last 3 or coming 3.
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Join Date:Posts: 14593
sourceLow solar activity is expected to cause the winter jet stream to bring bitterly cold Arctic air, writes DICK AHLSTROM
GLOBAL CLIMATE is warming, with 2010 expected to go down as yet another record year. You can count on our winters being colder than usual, however, at least for the next few years.
“There is a difference between global climate and regional climate, and there is a very peculiar thing we are finding about the European climate,” says Prof Mike Lockwood of the University of Southampton and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory. Colder winters are expected because at the moment solar activity is very low.
Solar activity, in this case, does not mean direct heat or light from the sun but the energy emitted from the solar surface by sunspots. “What we are finding is that Europe and western Asia are particularly prone to solar influences, especially in winter,” Lockwood says. “What we are seeing is much cooler winters if solar activity is low.”
Last winter was particularly cold here and on the Continent, and low-temperature records were set.
Lockwood, who is Southampton’s professor of space and climate physics in the school of mathematical and physical sciences, believes we will see more of the same this winter. Climate change naysayers argue that temperature changes come down to a weakening or strengthening sun, but in fact Eurasia’s colder winters will be triggered by the jet stream, Lockwood explains. It is a phenomenon known as “set stream blocking”.
Sometimes the normal winter flow of the high-altitude jet stream “gets kinked into a reverse S-shape”, says Lockwood. “What happens in a blocking event is the normal flow changes, the warm westerlies get disrupted and we get cold Arctic air from the north and east.”
This in turn changes the weather we see on the ground. “Although the jet stream is very high up it is known to direct weather patterns further down.”
The thing that gets the jet stream into a winter twist is none other than the sun, but only when it is not very active.
“There is no doubt that the frequency of those blocking events in winter is higher when solar activity is low,” says Lockwood. “What was a slight surprise is that the sun was changing the jet stream, but only when the jet stream has travelled across the Atlantic and begins hitting land over Europe.”
Lockwood believes that the phenomenon may have been responsible for the “Little Ice Age” in Europe, a time between about 1650 and 1700 when people skated on the frozen Thames. During that time astronomers noted that there were no sunspots for 50 years, and Europe became extra cold.
Scientists have directly monitored solar activity continuously throughout the space age, giving us more than 40 years of data and a chance to assess the links between activity and temperatures, says Lockwood. Activity can also be inferred by other methods, and when examined over time it shows that recent years have seen very high activity.
“We find the sun typically goes through 400-year to 500-year solar minimums and maximums. This was one of the 24 grand maximums in the past 9,000 years,” he says, putting the recent solar levels in the top 15 per cent.
All of this is expected to change. Activity has rolled back and is expected to decline still further. “We have returned to the lowest solar-activity conditions since the 1920s,” Lockwood says. “I would anticipate more cold winters in Europe. This is despite and on top of a gradually warming world.”
Will it/won't it, Will it/won't it
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when do the rollercoaster tickets go on sale or is it too soonnacho libre wrote: »i wonder why he sees it so differently to Joe Bastardi.
i guess experts differ and snow lovers feel the stress:pac: 0 -
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To snow or not to snow, that is the question!
In the interest of ramping and preparing for the ramp.... I bought a SLEIGH!!! Now while I wouldn't consider myself demanding or fussy, just a good 5-8 inches of snow will suffice and I would like it delivered around Christmas time, when I have holidays.
To prepare for this wondrous event, I will take any ramp going: berries, foxes, El Nino, wandering polar lows, etc.... I will even accept the effect of volcanic ash... Just on one tiny condition
IT MUST SNOW!!!!!
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(Part 2-La nina moderate - strong)
Here is the second part showing La Nina periods that are moderate to strong events and how they can affect us this year.
Remember people this is not what will happen but typical of conditions in the past during La Nina.
Here are anomalies of geopotential for months in order:
October:
Temperatures in parts of western but mostly central europe considerably below normal .
November:
Seems like an early winter which brings cold siberian air across much of eastern europe toward mediterranean regions.
December:
And what i can gather folks from this chart is that a mid atlantic blocking high forms allowing scandinavia to freeze its ass off.
Nothing too exciting im afraid.0 -
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Ok folks, I will admit it. I am a snowlover - love the sight of the stuff, the feel of the stuff, watching it fall, watching it settle. Its mesmerising and by far my favourite type of weather.
However what kills me about snow in Ireland can be summed up in one word.......MARGINALITY.
This is what drives us nuts on these boards - it can be raining heavy in Ireland in December with a temperature of +3oC. And you know another degree and a fall in the dew point will bring snow. So near yet so far.
Another very frustrating situation is when there is a pool of cold air over the island of Ireland. Rain comes in off the Atlantic. We all cross our fingers for snow however it turns to sleet at best or in most cases, just rain - which by the way we get in Ireland all bloody year round. :mad:
Then to make it even more unfair, the weather system crosses the Irish Seas and falls as HEAVY SNOW in Wales.....:mad:
Truly maddening.
I am looking forward to this winter however there will be some periods of disappointments for snow lovers - we do have to remember we are only a little island in the middle of the Atlantic after all.
Also to any newbies on this forum, take any long term predictions of snow (ie over four to five days away) with a major PINCH OF SALT. Some rampers of note include Weathercheck and Darkman2 - some of their posts would nearly have you believing we live inside the Arctic Circle, I joke not!
Here's to a snowy Winter 2010/2011 in Ireland !
Derek0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »Well personally, I don't get out of bed for anything less than this:
Guess I'll be staying in bed for a very very long time... :pac:
how long till next ice age? perhaps you could have your body frozen, like Simon Cowell, with instructions to bring you back from the dead once the next ice age is taking hold over Ireland. just a thought:pac:0 -
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I'd recommend picking up César Caviedes' book El Niño in History: Storming through the Ages, as he goes into great detail about the historic events that were affected by global teleconnections, especially the ENSO.
He speaks about the NAO, and shows this graph, which pretty much sums things up.
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