Monday onward, frost, ice returns - snow later

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Can't say I am overly encouraged by this morning's ECM run. Anticyclone not really shifting east but remaining just to the north of Ireland. It pushes NW later in the run but pushes down a cool polar maritime airflow over Ireland (a consistent theme from this model over the last few runs) which looks to bring cold rain showers rather than widespread snow.

Next!

just to add if that were to verifiy, while it might be cold rain and sleet by day for our side of country, we would likely get snow showers at night time. not great, but better than 10c, damp and drizzly weather!

Redsunset

An attack will come from the north in fi. Could be confirmed by end of week looking at these as high pressure pulls Very north west to allow cyclonic activity to approach.Sweeping in from south west too so might see a pincher movement.
Touch and go.

pauldry

was just musing over the name of this thread. snow later. dont sit on the fence there now. i think it will snow later in the future too

seriously though these weather charts are changing by the day so i would trust anything at the mo only that it will be dry this week and frosty too. boring but thats all i see

@redsunset

@redsunset
Those charts you posted are also subject to change remember..
So you would want to say possibly rather than just will.

nacho libre

UKMO 15 Day Outlook

Quote
Friday will be cold with brisk northeasterly winds and wintry showers, these more persistent across eastern areas with the risk of significant snow accumulations, mainly in the southeast and East Anglia, possibly central and southern areas as well. Some snow showers likely across Scotland. A frost will form widely, locally sharp in the west and northwest. Saturday will continue cold with further wintry showers, mainly in the southeast, and frosty. The period from Sunday to Tuesday is expected to continue cold with brisk easterly winds. The northwest should be mainly dry, with further wintry showers expected in the southeast. Later in the week there is a risk of some rain, sleet or snow spreading from the south with some significant snowfall possible for a time, but low confidence in detail.

Updated: 1147 on Sun 7 Feb 2010

i suspect this is in fact what will verify, but before that hopefully the wind swings around to the north for a day or two and we get a fairly unstable airflow, hopefully we then get frontal snow for a time before it inevitably turns back to rain. if this is what happens i still think we may see snow again before the second week in march as the uk met office monthly outlooks, which usually is fairly accurate, certainly suggest the cold will never be too far away.

I've noticed the dp taking a bit of a tumble here-now almost -1c and the wind is gusty.
It feels bitter out in it with an air temp of just 3.3c
The continental air is here.
It's cloudy.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Deleted User wrote: »

I've noticed the dp taking a bit of a tumble here-now almost -1c and the wind is gusty.
It feels bitter out in it with an air temp of just 3.3c
The continental air is here.
It's cloudy.

Do you see any chance of showers building up later from the Irish Sea ?

Supercell

Snizzle here now, roads are gonna be slippy.

ninebeanrows

Definate shower visible to my north from the city centre.

As for the 12z coming out there, very disappointing.

High pressure dominated from 60-96hrs

Really is so close to a decent flow but the high just wants to sit over us

Redsunset

Yeah i wrote will come from the north in fi.

I thought using fi covered that statement as we all know Fantasy island is exactly that.

But yes i will choose my wording more carefully in the future for non familiar members.:)

Musicman2000

Looking like another non snow event for us:rolleyes:

models are not keen on bringing deep cold to Ireland at all in the reliable.
I'm waiting till friday to see will it come at all.

The hp position is the spoiler.

nacho libre

it's interesting that what the ecmwf hinted at several days ago, then backed away from, is now being picked up on again.
what would be the real disaster is if the models over the next couple of days start showing the high slipping southwards....

irishdub14

A bit of rain mixed with a very tiny amount of frozen rain (not even graupel) here a minute ago, massive dark cloud rolling in from NE, but feels warm, not cold....!

Joe Public

irishdub14 wrote: »

A bit of rain mixed with a very tiny amount of frozen rain (not even graupel) here a minute ago, massive dark cloud rolling in from NE, but feels warm, not cold....!

Get out of the bed, it's a raw cold east wind.:cool:

owenc

Joe Public wrote: »

Get out of the bed, it's a raw cold east wind.:cool:

Im very sorry but if you think a max of 4.5 c and sleety rain is continential cold your half mad it's still 2.8c here aswelll at flipping 6pm!!! What irritates me more is the south east is colder than here and Scotland ugh!!!

owenc

owenc wrote: »

Im very sorry but if you think a max of 4.5 c and sleety rain is continential cold your half mad it's still 2.8c here aswelll at flipping 6pm!!! What irritates me more is the south east is colder than here and Scotland ugh!!!

The south east of the province should be warmer than you due to the onshore wind
Looking at xcweather they are...

owenc

Deleted User wrote: »

The south east of the province should be warmer than you due to the onshore wind
Looking at xcweather they are...

no southeast england..

Supercell

Funny, watching Joan on RTE talking about very light showers, i had to turn up the volume as the graupel belted against my front window!
Everything temporarily white outside, should melt as soon as its over though, temps too warm.

owenc

owenc wrote: »

no southeast england..

You don't live in England ,you live in NI so it would be better if you referred to "the south east" as the SE of your own patch and maybe in future when you want to talk about the English home counties,you could refer to them as southeast UK or better still south east England...

Supercell

Graupel turned to a decent little snow shower now. 1.6/-0.3°C

Pangea

owenc wrote: »

no southeast england..

LMAO



Looks like a nice frosty week ahead of us, I dont think we will get any significant snow ,I havent seen significant snow in years

Some people said to me today its given snow for tomorrow , and someone else said its given snow for wednesday thursday and friday,
Does anyone find that No matter how often u be on boards and are aware of any snow forecast someone will always suprise u by saying that ,especially when u know its not gona snow lol
Im not holding my breath ,the word on the street is different to the forecasts i guess

darkman2

Major snow event on the ECM this evening just after 168hrs.....So anyway it looks like the cold weather is here to stay for the forseeable future. Not disruptive I don't think at this stage but getting a bit more interesting by the weekend. Harsh frosts from tonight aswell except probrably Eastern coastal fringes.Onshore breexe keeping temps above zero here.

jambofc

Pangea wrote: »

LMAO



Looks like a nice frosty week ahead of us, I dont think we will get any significant snow ,I have seen significant snow in years

Some people said to me today its given snow for tomorrow , and someone else said its given snow for wednesday thursday and friday,
Does anyone find that No matter how often u be on boards and are aware of any snow forecast someone will always suprise u by saying that ,especially when u know its not gona snow lol
Im not holding my breath ,the word on the street is different to the forecasts i guess

looks like cold dreary non-event weather all right,another hugely ramped event.before anyone says anything i no the charts were looking good(i even lost it and posted way out charts)for a snow event,thing is this winter the charts only seem reliable out to +96 and even at that they've got it wrong.
worst winter for snow in years in my part of the country
has been a story of so near but yet so far,anyway when is it going to snow

Supercell

jambofc wrote: »

looks like cold dreary non-event weather all right,another hugely ramped event.before anyone says anything i no the charts were looking good(i even lost it and posted way out charts)for a snow event,thing is this winter the charts only seem reliable out to +96 and even at that they've got it wrong.
worst winter for snow in years in my part of the country
has been a story of so near but yet so far,anyway when is it going to snow

Snowing here now, forecasts seem pretty accurate to me so far, currently 1.2/-0.2°C

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

Major snow event on the ECM this evening just after 168hrs.....So anyway it looks like the cold weather is here to stay for the forseeable future. Not disruptive I don't think at this stage but getting a bit more interesting by the weekend. Harsh frosts from tonight aswell except probrably Eastern coastal fringes.Onshore breexe keeping temps above zero here.

now by harsh do you mean -5c downwards or -1c.. lol.. why do we not have negative dps either everywhere else has negative dps so they can get snow by instead we have been getting sleety rain...

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

Major snow event on the ECM this evening just after 168hrs.....So anyway it looks like the cold weather is here to stay for the forseeable future. Not disruptive I don't think at this stage but getting a bit more interesting by the weekend. Harsh frosts from tonight aswell except probrably Eastern coastal fringes.Onshore breexe keeping temps above zero here.

The eternal optimist you are Darkman2
Major snow even at +168 hours, would I be right in thinking this will not materialise in reality?

Derek

snaps

-1c exactly here, but it seems the west will always be colder in an easterly!

derekon

jambofc wrote: »

looks like cold dreary non-event weather all right,another hugely ramped event.before anyone says anything i no the charts were looking good(i even lost it and posted way out charts)for a snow event,thing is this winter the charts only seem reliable out to +96 and even at that they've got it wrong.
worst winter for snow in years in my part of the country
has been a story of so near but yet so far,anyway when is it going to snow

Hi Jambofc ,

I live in Dublin and from Thursday 31/12/09 right through to Saturday 9/01/2010, we had four decent snowfalls with lying snow for ten days. I can safely say, it doesn't bother me if it snows. I have had my fill

However I understand your pain as I think if we got no snow in Dublin during the Big Freeze, I would be fit to kill

Being realistic though, I think you could be looking at next winter for anything decent (getting late into the winter now and the charts are not good - also anything good is in FI and never materialises in reality) :mad:

Derek

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Major snow event on the ECM this evening just after 168hrs.....So anyway it looks like the cold weather is here to stay for the forseeable future. Not disruptive I don't think at this stage but getting a bit more interesting by the weekend. Harsh frosts from tonight aswell except probrably Eastern coastal fringes.Onshore breexe keeping temps above zero here.

168 is interesting...but will +168 ever become +00?
the good stuff is always a week away ...