Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

opr · 07-01-2010 9:27pm

Su Campu wrote: »

So at this stage it would seem that my hunch from last night has come true, and that the system hasn't really developed into anything noteworthy before reaching Ireland. It has been producing scattered showers of rain in west and northwestern low level locations (Donegal and Sligo airports, Belmullet, Mace Head, and freezing rain in other locations (Kerry Airport for one), but it didn't deepen as much as the UKMO predicted yesterday evening. The GFS and HIRLAM have been pretty spot on with this system, the UKMO was too aggressive with it, having it still a 1012hPa system on reaching the far northwest this afternoon, when in fact it was already beginning to fill. With awful radar coverage in the northwest, it remains to be seen how much precipitation this system will bring to the western quarter of the country, but I've a feeling that my snowdepth chart I posted earlier may have been a bit on the heavy-handed side, and most people in the west will see nothing more than a brief shower (of what depends on elevation - I still think the snowlines are about right).

Small systems like this have a much shorther life (1-2 days) than larger synoptic lows (5-7 days). The fact that this system had lost its upper support on leaving Iceland, and was already beginning to occlude this time yesterday was a good indication that it would be nothing more than a slack low, generating sporadic showers in the western quarter of the country. But it just goes to show that even 24 hours out, nothing's ever 100% sure, and to be fair The Eagle did admit after the 9 news last night that he didn't think it would amount to much either.

What's your take on Sunday ? I know its still very early but interested to hear your thoughts as you have been bang on with most of your predictions.

Opr

DOCARCH · 07-01-2010 9:27pm

Here you go:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_dust

WolfeIRE · 07-01-2010 9:27pm

Hi All,

would like to apologise for predicting snow today in the NW, w and SW. The snow 'event' turned out be a complete disaster.

I know some of the well respected weather experts here got it wrong too, as did Met Eireann who have just removed their warning of 'up to 6cm' of snow for west. However, they are usually spot on so something obviously went catastrophically wrong in terms of that system today.

This country and snow do not have a good relationship. Time and time again we are let down. But good things come to those who wait so roll on next Sunday and Monday.

To all snow lovers, I apologise again for building your hopes up. I am gutted myself. To all snow haters.....erm....congratulations.

Wolfe

ps....as a point of note is there any chance we could keep our snow threads to predictions and discussions on same? Maybe we could set up another thread for those who mean well but keep on making us out to be wreckless bastards by talking about how older people are suffering. They should just take it that we all are aware of this. This is a snow thread.

k123456 · 07-01-2010 9:27pm

Came accross this in Italy end jan 2009, tinks it freezing fog settling on trees

Min · 07-01-2010 9:28pm

This is going to be very bad...

maquiladora · 07-01-2010 9:28pm

Sky news forecast : http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/video/Weather/Long-range-Weather-Forecast-In-Video/Video/200806315009839?lpos=Weather_2&lid=VIDEO_56784_Long-range+Forecast&videoCategory=Weather

Sunday/Monday : "Britain and Southern Ireland bombarded with heavy, significant now."

isle of man · 07-01-2010 9:30pm

bet it rains;)

maquiladora · 07-01-2010 9:31pm

Min wrote: »

This is going to be very bad...

Could still turn out to be rain or precip may not be as much as forecast.

Not a dead cert yet... but if it does happen, yes, it could be bad. National emergency potential.

pistolpetes11 · 07-01-2010 9:33pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Don't start new thread until a mod closes this one - there will be chaos!

Too late on that one , someone started one today already

Its getting Very cold down in Newbridge again

-5.2 Temp

-6.3 DP

NRA Station newbridge bypass

Air Temp -6.4

Road Temp -4.0

Snowaddict · 07-01-2010 9:34pm

Very interesting latest Fax Chart For T+72 to say the least. Also, I think we are fine in above 528 Dam Heights in this setup with embedded cold and an Easterly wind off a snowcovered continent, although we are well within 528 Dam air at T+72 at any rate:

SA

thetonynator · 07-01-2010 9:35pm

Wait til weathercheck gets back so he can close this, then start the new one ( keep name suggestions coming in!!!:D:D) and merge any other ones with it. This will get messy otherwise!!!

Min · 07-01-2010 9:36pm

If you are working outdoors and your hands are damp beware of putting them on metal surfaces, I found my hands were sticking to metal surfaces, no damage but the potential is there with the low temperatures right now.

Redsunset · 07-01-2010 9:36pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Sky news forecast : http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/video/Weather/Long-range-Weather-Forecast-In-Video/Video/200806315009839?lpos=Weather_2&lid=VIDEO_56784_Long-range+Forecast&videoCategory=Weather

Sunday/Monday : "Britain and Southern Ireland bombarded with heavy, significant now."

Forecast of the decade and more if it come off

rhonin · 07-01-2010 9:36pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi All,

would like to apologise for predicting snow today in the NW, w and SW. The snow 'event' turned out be a complete disaster.

I know some of the well respected weather experts here got it wrong too, as did Met Eireann who have just removed their warning of 'up to 6cm' of snow for west. However, they are usually spot on so something obviously went catastrophically wrong in terms of that system today.

This country and snow do not have a good relationship. Time and time again we are let down. But good things come to those who wait so roll on next Sunday and Monday.

To all snow lovers, I apologise again for building your hopes up. I am gutted myself. To all snow haters.....erm....congratulations.

Wolfe

No need Wolfie. I enjoy reading your posts along with the other experts here. Fingers crossed for some nice falls for us on Sunday or Monday although it doesn't look great for us in the NW at the minute.

leahyl · 07-01-2010 9:37pm

Some cool pics of the 1963 snowfest on rte.ie! If we get snow like that we've had it!!:D

Benincasa · 07-01-2010 9:38pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

Very interesting latest Fax Chart For T+72 to say the least. Also, I think we are fine in above 528 Dam Heights in this setup with embedded cold and an Easterly wind off a snowcovered continent, although we are well within 528 Dam air at T+72 at any rate:

SA

In layman's terms, what does this mean???

admiralofthefleet · 07-01-2010 9:38pm

just back from the shops and the freezing fog was hitting my face like rain

in raheny, north dublin

DonnieBrasco · 07-01-2010 9:38pm

Benincasa wrote: »

I am due to fly out of Dublin early tomorrow morning and return late on Monday night.

I am now seriously tempted to cancel this - I don't want my return flight to be canceled nor do i want to get back to Dublin airport and be stuck there - I live in South Dublin.

I have a pregnant wife and a 2 year old who are staying in Dublin and I don't want to see them stranded alone in the house either.

Any comments from the more experienced people here? Am I mad to think of canceling?

tough one.
you'd have to be really unlucky to get stranded in dublin airport after your plane made a landing....unless you're travelling with dublin bus.

not sure where you're travelling to but if its from a city that can cope (berlin? etc) then you should be ok if dublin's weather is ok.
will dublins weather be ok on monday?
is the city you are flying to reliable ?
will you even get out tomorrow (early?)

if you're travelling to england...i'd reschedule.

200motels · 07-01-2010 9:38pm

I'm not so confident of snow where I am, maybe sleet or rain, but anyone inland will get plenty of snow.

F-Stop · 07-01-2010 9:39pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Hi All,

would like to apologise ...

No need to apologise. You made a forecast, a reasonable one, based on the info at hand. You weren't the only one to get it wrong. If people stopped forecasting because they got one wrong the whole thing would grind to a halt. Then we'd all be like chickens in the yard taking what was thrown at us and never wondering what might be around the corner.

Benincasa · 07-01-2010 9:41pm

DonnieBrasco wrote: »

tough one.
you'd have to be really unlucky to get stranded in dublin airport after your plane made a landing....unless you're travelling with dublin bus.

not sure where you're travelling to but if its from a city that can cope (berlin? etc) then you should be ok if dublin's weather is ok.
will dublins weather be ok on monday?
is the city you are flying to reliable ?
will you even get out tomorrow (early?)

if you're travelling to england...i'd reschedule.

Travelling to Italy so should be no problems with weather there.

The issue is not being able to get back on Monday night. I could well be stuck at the airport even if the flight were to land - its not due to land until late that night and I will be relying on Dublin bus or aircoach or taxi.

Snowaddict · 07-01-2010 9:41pm

Very interesting latest Fax Chart For T+72 to say the least. Also, I think we are fine in above 528 Dam Heights in this setup with embedded cold and an Easterly wind off a snowcovered continent, although we are well within 528 Dam air at T+72 at any rate:

SA

Longboard · 07-01-2010 9:42pm

Nearly all (52 total) but 2 of the NRA's road temp sensors around the country are reading below freezing at 20:22.

http://www.nra.ie/RoadWeatherInfo/Map/data/htm/WeatherTable.htm

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 07-01-2010 9:42pm

F-Stop wrote: »

No need to apologise. You made a forecast, a reasonable one, based on the info at hand. You weren't the only one to get it wrong. If people stopped forecasting because they got one wrong the whole thing would grind to a halt. Then we'd all be like chickens in the yard taking what was thrown at us and never wondering what might be around the corner.

Totally agree, you and others are brilliant at giving us great forecasts and great explanations

If it was not for you guys we would all have to join the cult of the tinfoil dress... god knows where that would end

SEPT 23 1989 · 07-01-2010 9:43pm

Right so this is how i see it massive snowfall on Sunday/Monday
road grit has run out no gritting on any roads,country literally grinds to a halt until thaw,Gormley resigns government collapses:D

zidewayz · 07-01-2010 9:43pm

ffarrell wrote: »

Maybe in 2020....just joking:D..my neighbour is from Cork city and has been living beside me in Dublin for the past 3 years and loves the amount of snow we get here especially in West Dublin. He is moving to Canberra in February but says he will miss the snow. He says it rarely snow in Cork City and even less in West Cork but he is starting to get his fill of it now!!!:D:D:D:D:D:D:D.

Just reading through all the posts.
From Cork City and I can confirm I have never witnessed any heavy snow there, only very icey conditions. Loving this cold spell but only wishing for more snow.

Trotter · 07-01-2010 9:43pm

200motels wrote: »

I'm not so confident of snow where I am, maybe sleet or rain, but anyone inland will get plenty of snow.

Im in the exact same situation. I refuse to believe Waterford City will have significant snow. I've been here before!!

Dotsie~tmp · 07-01-2010 9:44pm

I think this situation is now putting ME under pressure. The grit situation means people are looking for solid forecasts. ME will be showing their hand more. Less of the broad strokes.

JanuarySnowstor · 07-01-2010 9:45pm

200motels wrote: »

I'm not so confident of snow where I am, maybe sleet or rain, but anyone inland will get plenty of snow.

It should be snow Sunday as the wind is more northeast (less sea modification)
Saying that the sea must be much colder than normal now which means it could snow with even an onshore wind
Exciting times, if not ecstatic:D

thetonynator · 07-01-2010 9:45pm

Longboard wrote: »

Nearly all (52 total) but 2 of the NRA's road temp sensors around the country are reading below freezing at 20:22.

http://www.nra.ie/RoadWeatherInfo/Map/data/htm/WeatherTable.htm

theres 5 or 6 above freezing . . .

Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

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