Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

Supercell · 08-03-2008 11:52am

I'm with Snowbie on this, the path is far from certain at this point. Its far to early to be talking about the worst winds now being only over munster.
The path of these beasts rarely go exactly as forecasted even 24 hours previously.
Going to be an interesting day for sure tomorrow though.

Trogdor · 08-03-2008 12:01pm

Longfield wrote: »

I'm with Snowbie on this, the path is far from certain at this point. Its far to early to be talking about the worst winds now being only over munster.
The path of these beasts rarely go exactly as forecasted even 24 hours previously.
Going to be an interesting day for sure tomorrow though.

Agreed, looking at the GFS ensembles, the majority in the last few runs have actually shown the low going North of Ireland with the tight squeeze over around the bottom 2 thirds of the country. Also, pressure seems to have risen a bit in the core with the ensembles going for 950 to 960mb.

Kippure · 08-03-2008 12:03pm

Very windy at the moment, just a taster . Then the the real deal.

Paddy.1 · 08-03-2008 12:14pm

Can I agree too? Path defo important. I am just going by basic models which seem to agree on a north-central passing, which enhances a widening of the slacker center. Beeb still going for a more northerly track though, so all could happen really.

Either way, BRING IT ON;)

nacho libre · 08-03-2008 1:05pm

Paddy.1 wrote: »

Can I agree too? Path defo important. I am just going by basic models which seem to agree on a north-central passing, which enhances a widening of the slacker center. Beeb still going for a more northerly track though, so all could happen really.

Either way, BRING IT ON;)

yes, i was just about to mention that about the BBC forecast. Thanks for the detailed explanation in your earlier post.:)

DOCARCH · 08-03-2008 2:10pm

Current outlook from UKMO:

Rapidly deepening low will give storms or violent storms in Sole, Shannon, Rockall, East Northern Section, West Northern Section, East Central Section, West Central Section and Denmark Strait with risk of hurricane force winds in Shannon, Rockall, East Northern Section and East Central Section. Severe gales, with risk of storms, in Bailey and north Iceland. Gales for a time in Faeroes and Norwegian Basin. Very high, perhaps phenomenal, seas developing in Sole, Shannon and northern East Central Section.

Sierra Oscar · 08-03-2008 2:14pm

Very worrying, Im not a fan of stormy conditions. . .:(

Damomanye · 08-03-2008 2:23pm

i love a good storm me, obviously minus any deaths or injuries

Snowbie · 08-03-2008 2:25pm

According to the 6z has the worse of the storm force winds off the southern coast with SW quarter getting the brunt and into SW UK. Winds picking back up from the west later LP passes.

Paddy.1 · 08-03-2008 2:49pm

No sign of a detailed "farming" forecast on RTE today. Just a vague rundown on a possible scenario for monday.

Wonder are they hiding something....?

Danno · 08-03-2008 3:14pm

Today is Saturday Paddy.1 so no farming forecast today - it only goes out on s Sunday. This approaching storm looks mad indeed. I am to the NE of high ground so I doubt it will be excessively bad here until the winds turn NW.

SpitfireIV · 08-03-2008 3:22pm

Wow, so thats what Ireland looks like when its red:
http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/warnings.asp

Pity its never that color when there is snow expected :rolleyes:

Paddy.1 · 08-03-2008 3:35pm

Danno wrote: »

Today is Saturday Paddy.1 so no farming forecast today .

Thanks. I think I need to lay off that vodka for a while...

How embarrising.

Loobz · 08-03-2008 3:52pm

Are there any detailed satellite images anywhere of the approaching storm, animated or not?
Cheers.

Trogdor · 08-03-2008 4:07pm

Loobz wrote: »

Are there any detailed satellite images anywhere of the approaching storm, animated or not?
Cheers.

Not yet as the storm hasn't formed yet. It'll start to form in about 12-18 or so hours.
Keep on eye on this site
www.sat24.com
as it starts to get closer

Darkamn, have you got any updates on your thoughts about snow early on Monday?

Snowbie · 08-03-2008 4:09pm

Loobz wrote: »

Are there any detailed satellite images anywhere of the approaching storm, animated or not?
Cheers.

Storm has not developed yet. It wont untill later on tonight that a disorganised disturbance out in mid atlantic will show itself.

The sat pics be interesting tomorrow as the LP forms and moves closer to the country.

Snowbie · 08-03-2008 5:31pm

Position of the storm depression midday Monday from 12z

Trogdor · 08-03-2008 8:07pm

Dublin city council seem to be taking this very seriously with loads of sandbags distributed to large areas of Clontarf and Sandymount(and rigsend as well I presume although I wasn't out there). Bray council needs to get off the asses here.

mike65 · 08-03-2008 8:16pm

Watching the Met Eireann boys and girls they dont seem to be talking this up very much .

Mike.

squonk · 08-03-2008 8:21pm

Well judging by the track in the chart above, it really doesn't look like the worst possible scenario. The strongest winds will be out to sea on the south coast. Could have changed by tomorrow morning though. I guess they just want to call it as they see it and they're probably getting a little more confident as the time gets closer.

mike65 · 08-03-2008 8:25pm

True the met office boys across the water are in full Red Alert mode though.

Mike.

squonk · 08-03-2008 8:36pm

When aren't they? The UKMO overhyped the recent snow risk as well. On the other side of things though, they do have southern England to worry about. They'll get those gales that da county will miss and Scotland and Eastern UK are going to be hairy too.

mike65 · 08-03-2008 8:38pm

1987 haunts them!

Mike.

M.T. Cranium · 08-03-2008 9:06pm

This link will continue to update during the development of the storm, but as of the current time, you'll see a trough of low pressure extending from southern Greenland to eastern Newfoundland. Within that are two weak low pressure centres of about 1000 mbs. This trough will be moving rapidly east tonight and phasing with a stronger upper low southeast of Greenland. At that point the rapid deepening phase begins.

Note that this image will continue to update, the time in GMT is along the top of the image.

kerry1960 · 08-03-2008 9:29pm

latest update on netweather ' gusts perhaph exceeding 80mph in exposed areas ' is this a slight downgrade , or does it just apply to uk mainland ??

Hal1 · 08-03-2008 9:42pm

Nice image of the developing LP M.T. Cranium. Would that be a static map, will it track the LP?

08-03-2008 9:47pm

kerry1960 wrote: »

latest update on netweather ' gusts perhaph exceeding 80mph in exposed areas ' is this a slight downgrade , or does it just apply to uk mainland ??

I'd like to point out that the UK is not our mainland!
We are our own mainland.
That kind of geographical inacuracy bugs me just like refering to us as part of the British isles.Technically we are not.

That said-Tonights ECM prog's max gusts in this storm at 90mph over the SW of Ireland and that is stronger that any progged gust in the UK but weaker than some of the lower resolution models were progging earlier in the week.

We are now well into high resolution in respect of detailing this storm, so it does appear to be looking dangerous but a tad less dangerous than previously.

However to put this in context..Winds above 90 mph versus winds above 100mph in terms of the harm they can do are pretty similar.

Supercell · 08-03-2008 9:58pm

You can also enable the cloud overlay on Google earth which is pretty cool (expand weather on the toolbar and enable radar, clouds etc).

darkman2 · 08-03-2008 10:21pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This link will continue to update during the development of the storm, but as of the current time, you'll see a trough of low pressure extending from southern Greenland to eastern Newfoundland. Within that are two weak low pressure centres of about 1000 mbs. This trough will be moving rapidly east tonight and phasing with a stronger upper low southeast of Greenland. At that point the rapid deepening phase begins.

Note that this image will continue to update, the time in GMT is along the top of the image.

Hi Roger - I persume thats you!? Welcome to boards if I did not already say it!:)

Thanks for the link. Going to be fascinating watching this develope though I think Dublin will miss the worst due to the track of the center. Looks like the very worst gusts will be off the South coast. Having said that it still wont be a picnic on Monday thats for sure. Potential for some coastal flooding aswell with the Spring tide. Very nasty conditions right across the country.

Snowbie · 08-03-2008 10:25pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I'd like to point out that the UK is not our mainland!
We are our own mainland.
That kind of geographical inacuracy bugs me just like refering to us as part of the British isles.Technically we are not.

Here Here.
You also forgot another important point BB, and that is their weather or in some instances their climate is completly different than ours even given the close proximity of our countries which you would know anyway but some tend to think what happens there happens here and vica versa.

Moving on and awaiting the roll out of the 18z.

Sunday evening/Monday - Very Severe Storm

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