FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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01-06-2025 12:03PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Summer 2025.
If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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After a mostly dry and sunny Spring, we finished Spring on an unsettled note with the Atlantic back in business. This looks like continuing into the 1st and 2nd week of June. There is a faint signal that high pressure may take control of our weather once again by mid June but this is deep into FI and therefore unreliable.
The GFS 00z keeps us unsettled right up to the 13th of June.
The GFS builds high pressure and this centers over us by the 15th of June. A huge dumpload of salt on this for now as it is so far away. GFS also tends to regularly include high pressure towards the end of it's run during summer which can keep getting pushed back. We shall see.
The GFS ensembles show a fairly wet pattern throughout all the way to mid June. A cool opening 10 days of June followed by a warming trend around mid month.
Not a great start to summer. Hopefully we will see some improvements by mid June.
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GFS forecasting High pressure at the moment is like the GFS forecasting a cold spell in the winter, always 10 days out and getting pushed back every single day. GFS settles things down on the 16/17th June in the 6z.
A chilly week to come with signs of a warming trend into second week of June and possibly a short lived warm spell around mid month.
Post edited by Gonzo on4 -
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Indeed Gonzo, the GFS is a grim outlook indeed. Looking at the pressure charts, there's strong cross-model agreement for pressure to build from Saturday into Sunday then dropping off again from Monday onwards. The ECM and the GFS are consistent at building pressure again from the 12th to the 15th where the GFS takes a wobble. ECM however building to and then holding around 1030 hPa out to the end of its run on the 17th. For anyone unfamiliar, pressure readings below 1010 hPa is considered to be 'low pressure', standard pressure is around 1013 hPA. Hopefully ECM wins this particular forecast.
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18z has finished and a very definite cold trend over the next 10 days, temperatures between 1 and 4c below normal for the most part with rain or showers most days. A warming trend towards mid month but this is being pushed back day by day. A cool and wet first half of June is basically in the bag now.
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GFS 12z gets us to high pressure in the third week of June, with temperatures up to 26C or more. This is basically an outlier at the end of it's run.
However after a very unsettled 10 day period to come, there is a drying trend as we push into the second half of June with temperatures recovering.
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Another positive sign is that ECM is also holding firm, and both it and GFS are similar in their outlook for high pressure from around 10-days time.
I hope it's not like last summer though where we seemed to be chasing the high pressure all the way through Summer. It was always 10 days away, particularly on GFS.
On a somewhat separate note I've seen some recent discussion online about the GFS not being as accurate lately, and in some cases being very poor in its forecast performance. In some of the discussions I've seen it was related to the NOAA losing funding and not being able to send out as many weather balloons, take flight readings etc. but of course this could just be political point scoring. Worth noting all the same though.
ECM and GFS for the 16th:
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1591
There has been much talk about a warm, dry and settled spell of weather for Ireland from the middle of the month, and there is good evidence to suggest this will be the case.
Long-range weather models are indicating a shift towards more settled conditions, with high pressure systems likely to become more dominant. This would bring a noticeable drop in rainfall and a gradual rise in temperatures as we move into the middle third of the month.
Despite occasional sunny spells in recent weeks, rainfall totals across the country have been significantly above average — with some areas recording between 237% and 280% more rainfall than usual over the past 10 days.
The unsettled weather pattern that began around May 20th is expected to continue into much of next week.
The transition to more settled conditions has been a slow process, with numerous false starts in the past 10 days. However, signs are emerging that a more stable and pleasant spell could follow for the middle of the month.
Looking ahead, high pressure is forecast to build across Ireland by mid-June, bringing more frequent dry periods, lighter winds, and higher-than-average temperatures. The latest 16-day outlook from the European ECMWF model suggests a decrease in rainfall during the latter part of the forecast period, up to 19 June.
Ensemble model data — which runs 50 forecast variations to account for uncertainty — also supports a warming trend, with the average of all runs pointing to a steady rise in temperatures next week. This data is based on a sample location in the Midlands.
Meanwhile, Met Éireann reports that seasonal models (C3S) are signalling a warmer-than-average summer for Ireland. For the June–August period, mean temperatures are very likely to be above normal, particularly in the south and east, where temperatures in June may trend 1.0°C to 2.0°C above average. Rainfall over the summer is expected to be close to average overall.
www.weatheire.com
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Indeed an interesting set up being shown now for a few runs around later Weds /Thurs as the position of the LP to the NW and HP well off to the NE ( and decaying LP over Biscay ) help to steer up warm moist S'ly /SE'lys with initial potential for thunderstorms given the potential for high Theta E readings , shear, convergence zones, increasing surface temperatures and DP's with initial high mixed layer CAPE readings and the initial indices showing fairly high potential , could see daytime temperatures getting into the 20's.
The kind of set up that sometimes can produce big long lived thunderstorms travelling over relatively long distances with heavy localized and at times flooding rain in local areas…… if it keeps that look to that pattern but long way off yet but worth keeping an eye on.
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