FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123605853#Comment_123605853

I tried last night along with my post but it wouldn’t upload for some reason.

Gonzo

Looks like a very warm period coming up particularly for eastern and southern areas, Plenty of 20C+ from Tuesday onwards with mid twenties definitely possible from Wednesday onwards. It may not be very sunny with showers and thunderstorms mixed in.

Ros4Sam24

Gfs 18z warm and thundery, very nice 👍

Robwindstorm

That's some monster sized low that removed the heatwave and plonked itself over Europe (except Spain). With that set up we've a far better chance of summery weather 😀

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123608016#Comment_123608016

that’s alright 🙂

Dazler97

Can I see the models , I can’t seem to figure out to get them 😕

Ros4Sam24

Sure @Dazler97 here is the overnight runs

Gfs: A thundery breakdown starts here, goes into a north/south split later

Ecmwf: Very hot here which continues for a few more days before lots of thunderstorms, a crazy run

Ecm ai: Fairly warm here with thunderstorm potential but no precipitation charts so it could be more unsettled. Later a ridge stretches from the Azores to Scandinavia a bit like summer 2018 but in FI

Gem: Could be thundery or just westerly muck, turns unsettled later

Overall, a lot of similarities between these, with lower heights in the Atlantic and a low in Europe while we’re in the middle. Interesting model watching 👀

Sammy2012

Where's all this heatwave talk coming from? It is it just the rags being rags

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123608399#Comment_123608399

It's mostly been nonsense in the rags, but there has been some model output supporting a return to warmer conditions this week coming with it turning very warm next weekend. The latest operational runs from both the ECM and GFS are singing from the same hymn sheet with high 20s widespread next weekend. Of course so much can go wrong between now and then, there is also model output favouring Atlantic driven muck and that can't be ignored either. We should have a very good idea by Tuesday or Wednesday how next weekend will play out and how long of a warmer than average spell that we are looking at.

sryanbruen

A bullish set of ensembles from both the GFS and ECM for a very warm period upcoming starting Thursday, July 10th. Whether it would constitute as a heatwave would wait until the time comes - an Irish heatwave is 5 consecutive days with a maximum temp above 25C. Both the latest GFS and ECM deterministic runs achieve that. As mentioned in the summer thread, the most recent official Irish heatwave was September 2023. Most places failed to achieve even a single day of 25C in the entirety of 2024.

We've seen flip flopping over how much influence the Atlantic trough has over us, this is very normal of course. The bigger picture supports a build of pressure over NW Europe into Scandinavia for at least the next while starting later this week. Any troughing will probably lead to a heightened risk of thunderstorms rather than cool and wet conditions though you can never rule it out.

Beware beach goers on eastern and southern coasts that sea fog can develop suddenly in these high humidity environments in case you go to the beach disappointed.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123608395#Comment_123608395

Thank you 😊 so much, appreciated

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123608872#Comment_123608872

Great. Sounds like it should be a nice enough week in the southeast. Coming home from 10 days in the sun so should be a nice adjustment. Hopefully there will be some thunderstorms to look forward to too.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123609069#Comment_123609069

Fingers crossed for night time thunderstorms for a change.

pauldry

Good weather on the way for the South and East. Any prolonged settled spell in the West and North is in tatters really for this next 10 days but a couple of hot days possible here too. Anyways the too hot weather gets a bit further North every few years so I'd enjoy the cool days for the next 10 or 15 years!!!

Gonzo

GFS 12z shows impressive levels of heat between Friday and Sunday with a breakdown on the Monday.

GEM also looks impressively very warm for next weekend with low 30s possible.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123609849#Comment_123609849

Strangely not much difference in temperature between Ireland and southern England on that chart above.

Be interesting to see this evening’s ECM - will it be similar to this mornings run with the prolonged heat projected or will an Atlantic low spoil things after next weekend like the GFS 12z.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123610065#Comment_123610065

That's because southern England has a long fetched easterly flow whilst Ireland is under the southerly flow in that scenario advecting the warmest air briefly for a time here as illustrated.

GFS 12z det is a bit of a disappointment after the 06z with a more traditional Atlantic flow giving a quick cooler feed rather than a slack thundery outbreak though it introduces another ridge not soon after. Ensembles not as bullish on it lasting beyond Monday evening.

Gonzo

ECM 12z is basically a direct hit of heat for Leinster on Friday!

the entire country would be very warm in this set up. Between the ECM, GFS and GEM this looks to be a 2 to 3 day heat event with a breakdown from late Sunday or early Monday. The main thing is we should hopefully get the weekend out of this.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123610190#Comment_123610190

Highest temps occur on Saturday on ECM 12z, shows 29C over Roscommon and 28C over Kildare. You wouldn't rule out a 30C for Mount Dillon in that combined with good timing of sunshine. Easterly wind kicks in more then so Friday is a bit warmer on the east coast. Easily 25/26C both days for Dunshaughlin though.

Have to say not too impressed with 12zs, very different overall compared to this morning about the "breakdown".

Gonzo

27C showing for Dunshaughlin on Friday and Saturday, now for this part of Meath that is rare! It's an achievement if I get 25C one day per summer! Having said that we get low twenties fairly often most summers but getting 25C+ is a much more difficult achievement mainly due to onshore easterly winds.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123610455#Comment_123610455

Yeah, it's been 21-23C quite frequently in NCD over the last 2 months. Rarely warmer than 24 though.

25+ seems to be the cutoff where it's tricky to achieve. A southerly flow rather than W/E/SEly will definitely help with that of course.

Dazler97

Looking forward to the warm weather on the way 27c is forcast for me on Sunday but still a week away 🙃 I know from Tuesday onwards it's to get warmer , I know the heatwave in 2022 was also in July but 14th and 15th I think, even if it's not sunny even feeling the heat I'll love 😀 also in any sun I'll be out and it should boost my mood

squarecircles

I wonder which will win, widespread hot sunny conditions or the Atlantic muck?

Gonzo

The 18z from GFS not great, fast forwards the breakdown to Sunday.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123610894#Comment_123610894

it’s an outlier

Ros4Sam24

Ecmwf out on its own this morning, moving the low pressure quickly away while others like gfs are low pressure dominated after next weekend

Sadly we have been trending the wrong direction the last 24 hours and some really poor charts showing longer term. No need to panic as any breakdown is still out at 168hours and time for change

Gonzo

to me this seems almost a repeat of June, poor start to the month and then 4 to 5 nice warm to very warm days and back to unsettled again after that. The Atlantic is making it difficult for things to settle down for any extended period of time but at least we are getting some nice, sunny and warm days this summer which is alot better than can be said about last summer. This upcoming week of mostly warm to very warm weather is unlikely to be the last one for this summer, we will probably get one or two more decent spells between next week and early September.

Gonzo

That ECM 0z breaks down the heat on the Monday but stays generally fairly warm into the following week with another go at high pressure over us, it's not well supported and is a bit of an outlier, most of the modeling supports Atlantic unsettled conditions from Monday onwards.

pauldry

The GFS rolling out looks poor. Probably cloudier at weekend with 24 or 25c tops.

squarecircles

Bright start, clouded over, with stratus gloom and a cool pig flow from the northwest although the cloud base has lifted, so don’t have to turn the lights on.