FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

Mod Note:

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Summer 2025.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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After a mostly dry and sunny Spring, we finished Spring on an unsettled note with the Atlantic back in business. This looks like continuing into the 1st and 2nd week of June. There is a faint signal that high pressure may take control of our weather once again by mid June but this is deep into FI and therefore unreliable.

The GFS 00z keeps us unsettled right up to the 13th of June.

The GFS builds high pressure and this centers over us by the 15th of June. A huge dumpload of salt on this for now as it is so far away. GFS also tends to regularly include high pressure towards the end of it's run during summer which can keep getting pushed back. We shall see.

The GFS ensembles show a fairly wet pattern throughout all the way to mid June. A cool opening 10 days of June followed by a warming trend around mid month.

Not a great start to summer. Hopefully we will see some improvements by mid June.

Gonzo

GFS forecasting High pressure at the moment is like the GFS forecasting a cold spell in the winter, always 10 days out and getting pushed back every single day. GFS settles things down on the 16/17th June in the 6z.

A chilly week to come with signs of a warming trend into second week of June and possibly a short lived warm spell around mid month.

pauldry

Each time I look at charts it does get pushed out Gonzo but a trend of wet and showery first half and dry second half to June seems evident in past few days

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123508301#Comment_123508301

Yeah a bit of a case of wait and see over the next week to see how mid June shapes out. We could get a ridge from the Azores high or we could get some very warm air temporarily up from the south like a plume if we can keep the low pressures a bit to the west of Ireland so we can take advantage of some very warm conditions, however this sort of setup usually has the low pressure sitting over Ireland and the heat surging northwards over England. Mid June is definitely something to keep an eye on how it develops. My preferred scenario would be a good ridge of Azores high anchored over us. It wouldn't be as hot as the plume scenario but likely more successful in giving us several days of very warm and sunny conditions rather than a 1 day wonder of heat with the Atlantic rolling back in very quickly.

Gonzo

The GFS 12z ain't pretty, high pressure nowhere to be seen and Atlantic in full control right to the end with several dartboard lows with our name on it. This could be shaping to be June 2020 revisited.

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123509263#Comment_123509263

Indeed Gonzo, the GFS is a grim outlook indeed. Looking at the pressure charts, there's strong cross-model agreement for pressure to build from Saturday into Sunday then dropping off again from Monday onwards. The ECM and the GFS are consistent at building pressure again from the 12th to the 15th where the GFS takes a wobble. ECM however building to and then holding around 1030 hPa out to the end of its run on the 17th. For anyone unfamiliar, pressure readings below 1010 hPa is considered to be 'low pressure', standard pressure is around 1013 hPA. Hopefully ECM wins this particular forecast.

Gonzo

18z has finished and a very definite cold trend over the next 10 days, temperatures between 1 and 4c below normal for the most part with rain or showers most days. A warming trend towards mid month but this is being pushed back day by day. A cool and wet first half of June is basically in the bag now.

Gonzo

GFS 12z gets us to high pressure in the third week of June, with temperatures up to 26C or more. This is basically an outlier at the end of it's run.

However after a very unsettled 10 day period to come, there is a drying trend as we push into the second half of June with temperatures recovering.

Condor24

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123512308#Comment_123512308

I've been looking at the GFS charts for June 16th since they came into view at T384 and there's been a fairly consistent theme of strong high pressure settling back in around that time frame. Some runs then drop it slightly for slack thundery low pressure over these islands but inevitably it keeps coming back to fair anticyclonic weather from that date until, well, speculatively the end of the month at least. As always more runs needed, but a trend 'appears' to be emerging.

adocholiday

Another positive sign is that ECM is also holding firm, and both it and GFS are similar in their outlook for high pressure from around 10-days time.

I hope it's not like last summer though where we seemed to be chasing the high pressure all the way through Summer. It was always 10 days away, particularly on GFS.

On a somewhat separate note I've seen some recent discussion online about the GFS not being as accurate lately, and in some cases being very poor in its forecast performance. In some of the discussions I've seen it was related to the NOAA losing funding and not being able to send out as many weather balloons, take flight readings etc. but of course this could just be political point scoring. Worth noting all the same though.

ECM and GFS for the 16th:

ongarite

GEM will certainly be affected, see below video. Less weather balloons, less NOAA hurricane survey flights, etc...

. https://x.com/JohnMoralesTV/status/1929676101271298475