FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
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It's certainly not looking as good after this morning's runs. The ECM is particularly bad now, delaying any high pressure until the 20th and showing max temperatures of around 16-17 degrees (the following charts are for Castletown Geoghegan which is around the centre of the country). Its AI model is even worse so lets hope that one is completely wrong. Rainfall looks low after the coming weekend but it's not much use if it's still cold out. However looking at the ensemble graph for the ECM most of its members are still going for high pressure around the 16th and the operational run wouldn't be within the consensus really. The evening run will tell us more.
What is looking apparent regardless of what happens at the start of next week, is that whatever high pressure we get won't be sticking around for too long. It just doesn't seem to be able to establish any sort of blocking and it gets broken down after a few days. This trend has been showing for the past few runs, but at the same time it's well out in FI so that picture could well change.
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A bit of a mixed bag but should be dryer than this week. Warm at times but there could be spells of rain and showers at times depending on which model your looking at.
Alot of scatter for the 3th week of June, anything from very warm and settled to cool and unsettled. Week 3 still up for grabs.
Todays GFS 12 is on the colder end of the range for week 3 with most of the models going for something warmer than the operational.
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A lot of uncertainty in the models the past 2 days. Yesterday's 12z runs on both ECM and GFS were very bad for any proper building and holding of high pressure after the 18th, only giving us 2-3 days of anything decent, but the 00z runs have brought it back. Other models now coming into the mix too and I'm certainly optimistic about next week being at least a bit more seasonal, even if not really settled. How long it lasts and how settled it might be longer term is still completely uncertain. I think I'll take a break from the model watching for a bit and look forward to some nice weather again.
Yesterday's 12z runs
Today's 00z runs
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I’m not seeing much uncertainty, I’m seeing charts like this one over and over lately.
…. more of the same , don’t forget high pressure only builds after a thundery spell in the good summers, 1989 and 1995 for example.
Post edited by Elmer Blooker on11 -
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yeah any attempts at high pressure in the models recently have been very brief and flimsy. GFS 0z is a continuation of the June trainwreck with no end in sight to the Atlantic dominance.
the south might get a pet day or two but the westerlies on and on they go while the rest of Europe enjoys a summer melting pot of lovely heat and gin blue skies. The only positive thing I can say is that once we get the next couple of very wet days out of the way, the rest of June doens't look as overly wet but still slightly unsettled most of the time.
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taking a look at the other models and they are making a slightly better attempt at trying to settle things down and building high pressure.
ECM tries to build high pressure from the middle of next week. (June week 3).
However this is briefly interrupted by the Atlantic and we have another go at building high pressure.
Final week of June we see something more promising with a proper ridge from the Azores and less influence from an unsettled north Atlantic.
GEM also builds high pressure from middle of next week
As far as we can go with the GEM it maintains this high pressure into next weekend.
With the ECM and GEM there is definitely some hope that we may settle things down for a few days at the very least.
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