Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Indeed the models have really ramped up, I have opened a Strom Watch thread.

Windy on the coasts tomorrow and breezy to blustery overland, especially in the increasing convective showers tomorrow evening, through the night into Sunday across the country. Becoming increasingly wintry tomorrow evening into Sun with rain , sleet, hail and snow in places. Under showers visibility could be quite poor in the strong winds at times giving localized blizzard like conditions if somewhat short lived . Any accumulations of snow melting away in the showers and daylight from early on Sunday. Winds getting stronger on coasts tomorrow evening especially along the western side of the country, possibly getting up to somewhere around100 km/h along the coastal fringes, AROME showing the possibility of very heavy squally showers crossing the country with locally very strong winds especially overnight Sat into Sun morning, potentially getting localized gusts up to 80-100 kmh under an intense convective shower ( could get a few reports of unusually localized very strong winds from a WNW / NW direction, hope no damage to the power grid, AROME is good at picking up those squally shower set ups). Increasing instability around the coasts in the unstable cold vigorous NW'ly airflow raising the chance of some thunderstorms around the coasts especially the W, NW and N. The 528dam line moves down over much of the country for a time before a return to milder temperatures.

Different tracks on New Years Day but the main models showing a potentially strong wind event and possibly stormy in parts with different outcomes regarding snow potential depending on the position of the system, very steep temperature gradient as can be seen from chart below.

All the models showing a sudden introduction of much colder air pulled in behind the storm possibly for a number of days at least so bad time to be without electricity if it is disruptive.

A lot of precipitation showing up on the charts but a wide spread in location depending on track but looks to be a wet or very wet system having a warm core, ICON leads the way showing a track further south giving a huge dump of snow further North. GFS was showing this but dropped it, would expect these sort of charts to fluctuate over the coming days, too far out to know for certain but it is a scenario that could play out with all the moving parts aligned.

Weds could be very mild up around 12 to 14C for a time but end up with frosts later Thurs morning and much colder days to follow.

Highest tides next Weds and Thurs with some massive seas being predicted.

ECM 18Z a lot stronger on this run, very wet also, snow further North .

The 06Z GEFS (moyenne) has the New Year's Day low pressure system tracking further south than the 00z, thus bringing the threat of snowfall on the northern edge of the system further south. One to watch.

the 06z also introduces a battleground scenario for Saturday.