Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Potentially significant and impactful weather in store this Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a sharp cold snap to finish out the week.
A series of low pressure centres are currently developing out in the Atlantic and the first of which is expected to pass over the country this Tuesday followed by another more significant area of low pressure on Wednesday.
Tuesday’s weather is expected to be very unsettled with heavy rain passing down over the country throughout the day.
Met Eireann Meteorologist Mark Bowe commented “the low moving over on Tuesday will bring significant winds to the northwest but rain will be widespread and rather heavy at times too which could lead to spot flooding.”
The forecaster went on to explain that the weather on Wednesday will prove to be a lot more significant with more rain and very strong and blustery winds for all areas.
Bowe continued “ we are currently tracking the development of the low pressure system expected for Wednesday with potentially some very impactful winds across western and southern areas.”
For now the low looks set to track right across the country with significant winds expected for western and southern areas.
Met Eireann’s flood forecasting centre also commented on the significant weather expected adding that soils are saturated or approaching saturation countrywide which will increase rainfall runoff to the rivers. The widespread and prolonged nature of the rain may lead to significant river level increases. There is the potential for surface water flooding where highest rainfall totals are observed.
They went on to mention that we are in a entering spring tides. Significant surge, wind and wave conditions are expected. Coastal inundation is not expected, however, exposed low-lying coastal areas may experience wave overtopping due to strong on-shore winds coinciding with high tide.
Beyond this weather mid-week we are going to experience a rather cold change to the overall regime with very cold northerly air set to sink down across the country to finish out the week. Temperatures are likely to fall well below freezing overnight and struggle to remain in the single figures during the day.
For now Met Eireann forecasters are closely monitoring the situation with special emphasis on the development of the weather for Wednesday with updates likely over the coming days.
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What a change to how the charts were looking only a couple of days ago, Tues now more widespread windy and blustery but not too strong for most, gusting up to about 70km/h overland and around 80km/h on coasts, maybe a bit stronger in the W, NW and out on the costal fringes, Weds system looks to move much further S now with the strongest winds along the Southern counties ( yellow wind warning at most at this stage ), some models just showing winds barely along the Southern coasts and then of course the question if snow will fall North of the system but that is being well discussed over on the event thread.
Big shift in rainfall accumulations also with mostly Munster getting the most at this stage.
Weds for much of the country was looking very mild before the cold air flooded down from the North , now only the S looks to get the warm pulse of air from the system, temps remaining much cooler North of the center where sleet and snow is possible followed by a fairly widespread sharp to severe frost.
Edit: ECM 18Z now showing little or no wind on Weds with an almost non existent LP system/ was thinking it might be downgraded but this might be too much of a adjustment, will see .
Post edited by Meteorite58 on3 -
ECM 06Z totally removes threat of any strong wind on Weds. Looks very wet in the SW from Tues into Weds morning, Kerry getting the most.
Snowfall looks downgraded now on all the models with a sleety , wet snow at best highlighted in the areas below.
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The weekend weather will be a mixed affair. Rain, sleet & snow will slowly extend north on Sat afternoon. High-Res modelling suggests snowfall on high ground in inland parts of Munster, Connacht, Leinster & W Ulster, & to lower levels at times. Met É has issued yellow and orange alerts.
The Arome model, which goes to 51hrs, has provided the most accurate projections for recent snowfall in Ireland. This snow depth map is for up to 10am, Sunday. The system pulls away east until Sunday eve. Lower levels will see snowfall Sunday PM as colder air digs in behind.
www.weatheire.com
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Conditions in the Orange Alert counties will become briefly less conducive for snowfall later on Sunday morning as temperatures rise. The snowfall risk increases again as the system pulls away east dragging in colder air.
www.weatheire.com
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Tonight's Arome suggests significant snow accumulations for elevated parts of the southern half of Ireland away from the SE and S coast. In the main, the predicted snow depths match the topography of the landscape, which suggests accumulations will be lighter at lower levels.
www.weatheire.com
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Interesting bulge in the T+60 Fax chart over the east, streamers? Like the positioning of the 528 dam if so…
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Temps dropping between minus 8c and minus 10c overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, most likely over snowfields. Where freezing fog persists during Wednesday, daytime temps will remain sub zero. A slow return to less cold conditions from Friday into the weekend.
www.weatheire.com
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