Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123023947#Comment_123023947

Tonight's models show it to be become rather fractured as it begins to push NE over Ireland. The cold puts up a reasonable fight so it may snow for a few hours in a few spots before transitioning to rain or just fizzling out. Might be a tricky Friday morning commute in some places.

WolfeEire

From tomorrow eve onward, we will enjoy a relatively dry period of weather over the next 7 days. Atlantic coastal counties may experience some light rain or drizzle, particularly on Monday, but a dry outlook overall. Daytime temps will range 10-13c from Monday.

WolfeEire

Mist & fog widespread tonight as temperatures dip to 0-5 C, lowest in Ulster and highest near coastlines. Fog and mist will clear Sunday morning. Tomorrow will see cloud rolling into western counties with some patchy drizzle there. Some light rain pushing east Monday.

Meteorite58

Models been on to some unsettled weather for the end of the week now for a number of runs over the last few days and showing the possibility of wintry passages and a potential storm yet too far out to determine track and strength but most models showing some strong or very strong winds be it off shore or over parts of the country , we have of course seen these storms end up staying off the NW as the models seemed to be trending towards. A wait and see and observe the trend.

Tonight's ECM 18Z, taking a more S'ly route with the strongest winds well in over Ireland and one of the stronger runs so far.

dsmythy

Old friends. From the Met Eireann website.

.Donegal.

ECM is a monster of a storm this morning. Offshore Connacht pressure is 938mb. Snow late Thursday evening overnight in to Friday. Patchy accumulations Clare limerick, north of that a decent covering 5 to 10cm for much of Connacht and Ulster and to a lesser extent across NW Leinster. It washes away after a number of hours.

Peak gust far out at sea are extreme 00 Friday, at 213km/h. Thankfully these extreme gusts weaken somewhat in the following frames. As the strongest core of winds barrel in to Connacht midday Friday peak gusts of 180km/h very close to Connacht coastline. Hard to tell with the map colour but exposed coastal areas north of 160km/h . The centre stays off shore and runs NE past Donegal and into the outer Hebrides.

adocholiday

A few notable changes on the 00z runs. The northerly trend continues with the storm now, with ECM looking like the most impactful run now by a decent margin, GFS also very strong. GFS and ICON have brought it forward a good bit, with the most impactful winds coming through on Thursday night into Friday morning. ICON, UKMO, ECM AI, GEM and ARPEGE all keeping the winds offshore now with most of the country just having blustery conditions rather than stormy.

.Donegal.

Yes aperge keeps the worst of it offshore. That white area is in excess of 200km/h gusts, the end of the scale. I don’t recall ever see that before to that extent anyway @Meteorite58 ?

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123075436#Comment_123075436

Sometimes see a flash of it but usually gets moderated quite quickly, this does seem to be holding those extremely strong winds, over a a large area, off shore. GFS this morning, full on storm over the country, looking like what the ECM 18Z was showing last night. Bit to go but does seem to be trending off the NW keeping the strongest winds to the coastal areas, will see.

pauldry

Probably Orange Level warning for West and Northwest Yellow elsewhere. Phone showing gusts to 115kph here but that might be the max when it eventually arrives.

squarecircles

Weather Advisory for Ireland

On Thursday night and during Friday, a deepening Low-Pressure system is forecast to track close to Ireland. Very strong winds are likely across the country with the potential for damaging wind gusts and disruption in places. High seas and spells of heavy rain are expected also.

Met Éireann is continuously monitoring the evolving situation and weather warnings will be issued as confidence in the forecast track/intensity of the Low-Pressure system improves.

Please check the met.ie website and app for updates to forecasts and warnings in the coming days.

Valid: 12:09 Monday 20/01/2025 to 00:00 Saturday 25/01/2025

Issued: 12:09 Monday 20/01/2025

Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire

Event thread incoming I presume?

.Donegal.

GFS. Is 21mb lower at 3am Friday at 934mb compared to previous run at 955mb at same time. 932mb at its deepest, 934mb even when north of Ireland.

Condor24

Still hoping this one veers further north. Otherwise more ESB misery for thousands, for many days. Still time. I like a good gale, but when it causes outages you appreciate electricity all the more.

Rain from the West

GFS at +96. Fairly widespread wind event for the Northern half of the island during Friday daytime. 120kmh gusts inland in parts, 130+ possible on coastal fringes.

Elmer Blooker

won’t bother with a chart, you can’t even see Ireland under the isobars anyway.

Red warnings, schools and businesses shut on Friday.

squarecircles

ummm wow

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123077362#Comment_123077362

that’s a January Snowstor comment if there was ever one

WolfeEire

A low pressure system will undergo rapid cyclogenesis (fast and intensive development) in the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. The general trend amongst the main weather models is for the system to track to the northwest of Ireland toward northwest Scotland.

There is a risk of an additional low pressure system impacting Ireland and Britain later on Sunday into Monday.

There is a Met Éireann weather advisory in place for potential damaging wind gusts and disruption in places this Friday ( https://met.ie/warnings-today.html ).

Only the UK Met Office, Met Éireann or KNMI can name a storm, taking the name from the latest list in alphabetical order. The next name in the list is Éowyn.

ascophyllum

The GFS has cat 1 Hurricane speeds very close to shore early Friday morning. Red warnings for sure for counties in west and Northwest if there's not much change.

Arpege goes off the scale with windspeeds but keeps it mostly offshore. Wouldn't want to see that shifting south and verifying.

Hopefully all the models show a shift north - if they start nudging it south this could be very damaging and on a par with the 1988 or 89 storms, can't remember exactly - and of course another headache for the ESB too.

adocholiday

ARPEGE showing some incredible wind speeds out to sea on its 12z run. Category 2 hurricane force sustained winds at the strongest point. Thankfully these speeds remain out at sea, but not often we see these. The first chart here is not gusts, it's 10 minute mean wind speeds. The second chart is max gusts from ARPEGE. 12z charts so far are showing it much deeper than previous runs, but still the northward trend continues. Each run (for the most part) nudges it that bit further from us. The SE and E might get off relatively lightly with this one yet.

DOCARCH

Only the UK Met Office, Met Éireann or KNMI can name a storm, taking the name from the latest list in alphabetical order.

Or Cathal? 🙄 Could be black warning! 🤣

ascophyllum

Speaking of that black warning.....

https://x.com/TorroUK/status/1881370756606738713?t=Oa6RHYDlv1tW982MEgaOZg&s=19

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123077494#Comment_123077494

257km/h crazy. I think the UKMO moved a bit towards gfs/ecm.

downwiththatsor

No move North on this Ecm run, looks nasty

gustkph_20250120_12_090.jpg

.Donegal.

ECM further south. Centre goes through Mayo/Donegal.

A consequence of that is snow is a bit further south on this run and hangs around for longer further north. It still washes away shortly after midday in the North.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123077494#Comment_123077494

Bear in mind as well that the US NHC use 1-minute sustained windspeed. By using 10-minute the storm appears less severe than an equivalent NHC forecast.

While this is not a tropical cyclone, no matter what certain amateur forecasters might say, it does look potentially dangerous especially if there is any further shift SE causing it to make direct landfall in Ireland. ECM showing >14metre (46ft) waves just offshore too.

Worth mentioning that the jet is forecast to be at near record windspeeds. This could mess with the models and make it more difficult for them to predict accurate outcomes. They could well moderate or change more significantly than usual at this timeframe. So, still a wait and see. If by this time Wednesday the output hasn't changed then we will see a plethora of warnings. I think if they call it much sooner than that they are jumping the gun.

The follow up on Sunday/Monday that shows on the ECM&GFS needs to be watched as well. Will cause havoc to ferries if it comes off with 8m up to potentially 12m waves in the Irish and Celtic sea respectively and from a relatively abnormal SEly direction. Still a very long way out though and not shown on some models.

.Donegal.

UKV Exceptional high gusts for the NW. In miles not km

.Donegal.

ECM Ensemble the main run appears to further south than the mean.

Belmullet has one with a gust of 202km/h

Malin beg far west of Donegal one with a gust of 203km/h

Then Tralee Ensemble main run is 111km/h, mean is 143km/h. One run is 225km/h which is higher than anything I’ve seen on Ensemble at this short of time frame. @Meteorite58 board up those windows ha

Donegal Ken

Not very often you see the UKV show these sort of winds or purple. That's gusts of around 170km/hr to 190/hr.

Thats would do some crazy damage.