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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 573 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    I'm puzzled about the time on that chart it's 1600/1700 so 4-5pm but Met eireann says the red warning expires by 12 or 1pm but those charts indicate red levels of wind at 4 and 5pm.

    Am I missing something? Could you explain please? Many thanks @WolfeEire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 569 ✭✭✭coillsaille


    It's the highest that gusts reached from 12am up to 4pm. So those winds occurred at some point during that time period.

    *Edit: Shouldn't use past tense - will occur during that time period.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Latest track of Storm Eowyn based on 6 primary weather models.

    Summary:
    - This is a significant, high impact storm, particularly for Atlantic coastal counties.- The wind field will be large, hence the Red Alert now in place for all of Ireland. The strongest sustained winds and peak gusts can be expected away from inland southeastern areas.
    - Gusts of 160km/h+ along the west coast. Gusts in excess of 130 km/h elsewhere away from inland SE. Sustained winds of 90 km/h+ along the Atlantic coastline of the SW, W and N.
    - The Arome and Arpege models have backed off a little this morning with the strongest winds staying offshore.
    - The GFS, ICON, ECM and Harmonie models produce the strongest and more impactful onshore winds.

    Please note that a Red Wind Warning is in place for all 32 counties of Ireland. Consult met.ie and metoffice.gov.uk for the latest warning details and additional guidance.

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    It feels a bit like 1839 at this point …

    mace head 72 kn g 98 kn is over-under for 0400 to 0600 peak winds, if station survives.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Another wind warning for Sunday

    Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone, Derry



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Very concerning output from the Arpege model should it verify. 200km/h wind gusts kssing the west coast of Kerry, Clare and Galway, including Galway City.
    Hoping for a downgrade.

    Post edited by WolfeEire on

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Mean wind speeds (10m) in the latest Arpege output are reaching Cat 1 Hurricane levels in parts of the west, including Galway City with the WSW wind sweeping through Galway Bay.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,744 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Is there anyway to estimate what the mean speeds for 1 minute would be as they do for hurricanes . It would be higher than the 10m average but by how much I don’t know.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    not aware of such data being available freely, Donegal

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    For the east coast, and for my back yard - north Wicklow/Greystones - looks like Sunday afternoon/evening could be just as windy/stormy as Storm Éowyn.

    By the way, not now expecting a colossal amount from Storm Éowyn here (nothing like Storm Darragh anyawy).



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 880 ✭✭✭DumbBrunette


    Gusts of 85 knots (157kmh) in the TAF forecasts for Knock and Shannon tomorrow morning. Pretty exceptional especially for Knock, which is far inland.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,702 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Yeah, I think it's going to be the inland wind speeds/gusts that are going to be exceptional with this, north of a line of Shannon to (say) Drogheda.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 570 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    C'mon MT, your not that old.

    Good point about some stations surviving. The great storm of 1987 lost full recordings in southern England.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tippecanoe and Tyler too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 570 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    as you have guessed, i had to Google it 🤔.

    That presidency ended in death and disaster around 1840, I hope not like Eowyn. Maybe you are hiding a cryptic message about trump 😁.

    Any update or predictions from your vast knowledge at this stage regarding the storm?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    My final summary of the track of Storm Eowyn based on 6 primary higher resolution weather models.

    Summary:

    • This is a significant, high impact storm, particularly for Atlantic coastal counties.
    • All models now track the storm closer to land (the Arpege and ICON bring the storm centre over land at some point).
    • The wind field will be large, hence the Red Alert now in place for all of Ireland.
    • Gusts of 160km/h+ in western coastal fringes. Gusts in excess of 130 km/h elsewhere away from inland SE. Sustained winds of 90 km/h+ along the Atlantic coastline of the SW, W and N.

    Please note that a Red Wind Warning is in place for all 32 counties of Ireland. Consult http://met.ieand http://metoffice.gov.uk for the latest warning details and additional guidance.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I wonder has Knock ever had a gust of 97 mph before? Surely not? That's the kind of gust you only expect to see on coastal fringes. There is going to be some amount of trees down tomorrow further inland if these gusts in excess of 80 mph come off



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    M.T.Cranium what are your thoughts on the likelihood of a sting jet? Would that explain some of the extreme gusts depicted by the Arpege model for parts of Galway?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭Rain from the West


    Bloody hell, the latest ECM has another pretty deep system just West of Ireland on Monday lunchtime.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,580 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What the hell… !! Pass me the smelling salts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    The UKV Met Office high-resolution weather model has a 123mp/h (197 km/h) gust from #StormÉowyn forecast for the area around atMace Head in Galway.

    Can it make the top 5 wind gusts recorded in Ireland? (hopefully not!):

    182 km/h Limerick (Foynes Airport)Jan 18th 1945
    181 km/h Donegal (Malin Head)Sep 16th 1961 Debbie
    178 km/h Donegal (Malin Head)Dec 26th 1998
    178 km/h Wexford (Rosslare)Oct 24th 1995
    172 km/h Mayo (Belmullet)Feb 9th 1988

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Even at this late stage of the day, the ICON has produced a significant upgrade for wind gust potential in the west of Ireland. Notably, the red weather warning for the Isle of Man for violent storm force winds is more than justified based on the 18z run.
    The primary reason for the change is that the ICON has moved a tad further inland into Mayo and Donegal. The strongest winds will be wrapped to the south of the storm centre.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 832 ✭✭✭bazlers


    There will be severe damaging gusts deep into the midlands.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Storm Éowyn could yet have a sting in its tail.

    The scorpion tail-like feature in the below satellite animation (cant post videos here. sorry) is conducive to the formation of a sting jet. These features are rarely wider than 20 km and last up to 2-3 hours , which means their impact is highly localised. Winds can reach speeds of 160km/h or more.

    Numerous sting jets (explainer https://resources.eumetrain.org/satmanu/shapiro_keyser_cm/index.html ) have been recorded in our neck of the woods including in southern England in October 1987 and Storm Darwin in 2014, amongst others. Darwin (pictured) produced a 10-minute mean wind speed of 113 km/h and a 159 km/h gust at Shannon Airport.

    This is an observation rather than a forecast for fear of frightening anyone more than they may already be. If such a feature were to develop, there is no guarantee that it will move over land. Most high-res models keep the system just off our main coastline.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Storm of the century (this one or last)?

    A rare event in which modelling continues to upgrade wind potential even as Storm Eowyn is on our doorstep. Aside from the insane max gusts for the west, the potential for signficant gusts extends right through the Midlands to the Irish Sea coast at Louth.

    The Aran Islands off the coast of Clare and Galway will be at the centre of this storm.

    Fully expecting the lights to go out here in West Clare in a few hours so apologies in advance if I go dark also!

    Latest
    NOAA Airmass-RGB satellite image included.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 570 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    Great work as always Wolf. This is unbelievable stuff. I had a gut feeling last week something big was going to happen after the charts showing huge disparity in temperatures flaring up the Jet. These big types of atlantic born storms have missed us down the years but as MT said a few days back that one day we'll be hit like 1839 and this seems to be it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sting jet question also came up in storm thread, I said basically yes looks like one, think models factored it into their wind speed projections …

    Mace Head went "over" by at least 2-3 knots on my gambit, pretty good guesstimate I would say. It may be a bigger margin when or if we learn of missing 0600 obs.

    Tippecanoe was President Harrison elected with Tyler who had to take over because Tippecanoe caught a fever after giving inaugural address outdoors in April 1841 (a storm which Alexis Caswell's Providence RI weather journal tells us was a horrendous nor'easter that dropped heavy wet snow in New England on gale force N winds).

    (note he was the first of two presidents Harrison, the second was elected in 1888 between Grover Cleveland's two non-consecutive terms, after 1884 and 1892 elections)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Noting for posterity, recent 940 mb pressure at Belmullet with winds indicating lowest pressure offshore likely 935-937 mbs, later the M4 buoy reported 939. And the M6 buoy, surprisingly still reporting, had 157 km/hr peak wind gusts around 0200h after centre probably went just south of it (lowest pressure was 947 but it could have been lower inter-hour).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 50 richiekw


    ICON showing gusts up to 120 km/h on southwest coasts. I guess this will be a named stormed for Sunday.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,233 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    January 1945 (previous record) has to the strangest weather month that I’m aware of.

    It was an easterly month with snowfalls at the start and end with an Atlantic storm in the middle.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,067 ✭✭✭thereiver


    Its very cold today I have gloves on I see a man wearing no coat shorts and sandals. No socks . I don't get it . It's weird .

    People buying all the bread in some supermarkets . Its a storm it'll be over in one day .I understand there's 400k homes with no power . Shops are mostly open spar centra tesco

    I saw a row of 5 trees one tree is broken in two

    Every week I see one bike locked 2 wheels removed. Heres. A tip lock the back wheel thru the frame .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,306 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Any update on Sunday?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 154 ✭✭Rain from the West


    Narrow band of precipitation pushing through tomorrow afternoon. Some wintry looking bits embedded in it.

    Harmonie suggesting similar.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    And away she blows.

    Storm Éowyn continues to track ENE to north of Scotland leaving blustery conditions and scattered sleet and snow showers drifting into western and northwestern counties of Ireland overnight. Mostly dry elsewhere.

    Some lightning reported in Killybegs, Donegal in the past hour (see image).

    Back to the 120+ hours.


    An occluded front will bring scattered outbreaks of rain (sleet or snow on mountains) from west to east across Ireland from midday tomorrow.

    Moderate southerly later turning southwesterly winds will follow quickly in behind. There will be a lull in the winds Saturday night before a deeper area of low pressure brings very strong winds across the country from the southwest on Sunday morning.


    Keep an eye on Met.ie and metoffice.gov.ie for any warnings that are issued. Should the storm be named, it will be called Storm Floris. Floris is of Dutch origin and it means Flourish/Prosper. Doesn't sound too bad!

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,868 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Has been named Herminia by the Spanish Met Agency.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    i thought they could could rename for the Irish, UK uand Dutch and Dutch sector. Perhaps not

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    GFS says 40-50 mm rain in Kerry, w Cork by 27th. Also snow 29th Galway area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Good news on the weather front (episode 1 of the year 2025):

    There is a signal for high pressure to rise at the end of the coming week introducing drier and calmer conditions.

    The top graph in the ensembles from the European (ECMWF) and US (GFS) models show broad agreement for high pressure to be situated close to Ireland. The bottom graph shows anticipated precipitation levels, which are signalled to be lower than present levels.

    The red line on the pressure and precip graphs signify the average of all of the various members (perturbations) of the respective models, hence there being a consensus toward drier and calmer weather.



    The operational runs of the models (the GFS used as an example) show heights building from the south from midweek and settling further to our east and holding into the following week.



    In such a setup, fog and frost can become a feature of our weather. Light rain or drizzle can also affect western and northwestern parts at times if the high pressure system drifts a little further east.

    Both ensembles also show the pressure drop associated with this Sunday's low pressure system, named #stormHerminia by the Spanish Meteorological Service. The system did not meet the criteria to be named by our region's storm naming group, which includes the UK Met Office, Met Éireann and KNMI.

    One caveat in a generally positive outlook is the forecast continuation of a mobile Atlantic regime as indicated in the latest NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) forecast. A positive NAO suggests a more active Atlantic setup (see image 4). This however, can be negated by high pressure building close to Ireland from our east which would act as a block to any Atlantic systems.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭ClimateObserver




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 412 ✭✭scooby77


    Thankfully looks quite calm and dry for Bank Holiday weekend at this stage, up to Monday afternoon anyway. I think everyone needs it after last couple of weeks!



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Deep low pressure transitting Ireland but isobars not tightly packed over land, windy during frontal passage and around the coasts but not too strong overland. Slow moving and filling , drifts away to the NE later Mon into Tues. Warnings highlighting the risk to already weakened trees or structures from the storm so care needed. Heavy rain in the SW and S at times, accumulations building up over the next day or so. Frosty nights in places.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    to add to the post by @Meteorite58

    As named by the Spanish Meteorological Service, Storm Herminia will impact our weather during Sunday and to a lesser extent into Monday.

    The system did not meet the criteria to be named by our region's storm naming group, which includes the UK Met Office, Met Éireann and KNMI.

    MetEireann has issued Status Yellow Warnings for wind and rain for much of the southern half of Ireland.

    The Harmonie model suggests that parts of the southeast may experience slightly stronger wind gust than those recorded at places like Johnstown Castle in Wexford during Storm Éowyn. The max gust chart is enclosed below.



    The second image illustrates likely precipitation totals. Up to two inches of rain could fall in southern coastal counties and even higher totals in the mountains of West Cork and South Kerry, which will serve to swell river levels here.



    See www.met.ie for full details.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,887 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    All locations should see sunshine at some point during Wednesday and Thursday. Here is the forecast cloud cover for the next 72 hours, based on latest GFS.
    📸Meteociel


    Any precipitation during this period will be restricted to northwestern coastal locations.
    📸Meteociel



    Winds be fresh northerly tomorrow making it feel much colder. On Thursday, winds will begin to moderate northwesterly before veering to a light-moderate southerly by evening. Much breezier in the northwest Thursday evening.
    📸Meteociel


    Daytime temperatures will range 5-9c after cold starts to both days. Overnight temperatures will range +1c to -2c.
    📸Meteociel

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭Oíche Na Gaoithe Móire


    The sunshine chart is like the German flag Wolfe!

    'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio? A nation turns It's lonely eyes to you.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Outbreaks of rain will slowly clear eastern counties this morning, while drier and brighter conditions are already spreading into the west. Temperatures dropping to 7-10c as the cold front passes through.


    A breezy day today with moderate SW winds and scattered showers or rain, with some possibly of hail.


    Turning drier with spells of sunshine from tomorrow, but feeling colder with temperatures dropping to 6 to 8c. Overnight frosts will become a feature of our weather from Wednesday night.
    Drying conditions will be excellent from Thursday as winds switch from SW to SE.

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    An area of very low temperatures transiting the country from East to West over the coming days producing low surface temperatures by day and freezing through the night/ early morning. Quite fresh for a time along the East making it feel very cold and possibly keeping the temps up over freezing there by night, breezy at times across the country. Light snow on higher ground possible giving some Mt tops a dusting, the Wicklow Mts could see a fair dusting and streamer like localized showers could set up moving in from the East especially across the midlands, maybe more falling as light snow/ graupel a bit inland and a few hail showers, not widespread but more in stripes and patches with most areas staying dry. Feeling very cold with the windchill effect .



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