Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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The latest high-res Arpege and Harmonie models show some significant maximum gusts from Storm Eowyn for the western seaboard of Ireland.
Some of the mean wind speed charts are at the extreme end of the scale. Hoping to see some downgrades in the wind potential as we get closer to the event.
In the meantime, Met Eireann has Red and Orange alerts in place. See met.ie for the latest guidance.www.weatheire.com
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Latest model output depicting track and timings for Storm Eowyn this Friday morning:
- The strongest winds will be wrapped around the south of the storm centre.
- Models have trended toward centering the storm offshore except for the GFS and ICON models.
- The ICON model is slightly delayed in bringing the storm in compared to others, but it is keen to move on quickly once it reaches the north coast of Ireland. The GFS moves on quickly too at the same point.
- The Arpege model, which is currently showing the lowest hPa levels at the system’s core, takes the centre of the storm further out to sea. We need to watch this trend to see if other models follow suit which would be good news in terms of reducing the wind speeds on Friday.
Status Red Warnings are in place for 22 counties with Orange Alerts in place for Northern Ireland and Waterford, Wicklow, Carlow and Kilkenny. Visit met.ie and metoffice.gov.uk for the latest information on projected windspeeds and measures that can be taken to protect life and property in the interim
www.weatheire.com
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If Storm Eowyn wasn't enough, there is the prospect of another complicated, 'fidget spinner' looking system later on Sunday into Monday and Tuesday.
Let's get Friday out of the way first.
www.weatheire.com
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What is Cyclogensis and where is #StormÉowyn getting its energy from?
It's nothing got to do with Genesis on a Bike 🎶🚲.
It's all about a process called Rapid Cyclogensis or RaCy. RaCy in name and nature.The below satellite image shows Storm Éowyn beginning its life as a shortwave southeast of Nova Scotia tonight. The rapid and intensive development phase of this storm is underway and will intensify overnight and during Thursday as the storm moves northeast toward the southwest coast of Ireland.
The storm will deepen by 50 millibars in the 24 hours (well in excess of minimum 24 millibar threshold for ‘weather bomb’ status) up to tomorrow night at which point it will be showing up on satellite as a highly developed cyclonic cloud spiral.
The rapid development is driven by the Jetstream - a fast, narrow current of air flowing from west to east - which itself has been energised by the deep pool of cold air over the United States that brought a foot of snow right down to the Gulf of Mexico yesterday.
This time tomorrow night, the distinctive comma shape associated with storms will likely appear in satellite imagery. Sample below from Storm Barra.
By then, the opening salvo of Storm Éowyn will be felt first in in southwest Munster as winds begin to pick up around 8pm with stronger gusts appearing by 10pm. The max gusts will impact the southern half of the country from around 2am to 7am before extending north as the storm tracks off or close to the west coast toward Donegal Bay. The worst of the winds will have moved on from northern counties by mid-afternoon Friday.
See http://met.ie for more details, including weather warnings and safety guidance.
www.weatheire.com
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The latest high resolution models depict little change in the forecast maximum gusts associated with Storm Éowyn. This is a dangerous storm that is likely to cause significant disruption.
There is broad agreement now that the system will approach quickly from the southwest of Ireland shortly after midnight and track north-northeast towards Donegal by daybreak tomorrow.
The strongest of the winds will sweep through from midnight to lunchtime tomorrow but occasional damaging gusts will continue in the far north up to later tomorrow evening with a slow abatement in wind speeds beginning on or before midday in the southwest.
We are looking at wind speeds of in excess of 130km/h being recorded across broad swathes of the island. More extreme gusts of 160 km/h+ are likely along the western seaboard, on exposed higher ground locations and in locations prone to valley winds when the wind direction is due westerly or WSW. Inland southeastern locations will experience less extreme gusts generally.
This is an exceptionally dangerous storm and is NOT your standard Irish winter storm. Heed all advice received from the authorities before, during and after the event as the impact of the storm will be felt in many areas for a considerable time after Storm Eowyn has moved on.
One piece of advice regarding loose, large garden items would be to secure and store them close to the eastern gables of buildings as the strongest winds will be W or WSW.
Please consult met.ie and metoffice.gov.uk for information on weather alerts and additional guidance.www.weatheire.com
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Latest track of Storm Eowyn based on 6 primary weather models.
Summary:
- This is a significant, high impact storm, particularly for Atlantic coastal counties.- The wind field will be large, hence the Red Alert now in place for all of Ireland. The strongest sustained winds and peak gusts can be expected away from inland southeastern areas.
- Gusts of 160km/h+ along the west coast. Gusts in excess of 130 km/h elsewhere away from inland SE. Sustained winds of 90 km/h+ along the Atlantic coastline of the SW, W and N.
- The Arome and Arpege models have backed off a little this morning with the strongest winds staying offshore.
- The GFS, ICON, ECM and Harmonie models produce the strongest and more impactful onshore winds.
Please note that a Red Wind Warning is in place for all 32 counties of Ireland. Consult met.ie and metoffice.gov.uk for the latest warning details and additional guidance.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.weatheire.com
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Very concerning output from the Arpege model should it verify. 200km/h wind gusts kssing the west coast of Kerry, Clare and Galway, including Galway City.
Hoping for a downgrade.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.weatheire.com
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My final summary of the track of Storm Eowyn based on 6 primary higher resolution weather models.
Summary:
- This is a significant, high impact storm, particularly for Atlantic coastal counties.
- All models now track the storm closer to land (the Arpege and ICON bring the storm centre over land at some point).
- The wind field will be large, hence the Red Alert now in place for all of Ireland.
- Gusts of 160km/h+ in western coastal fringes. Gusts in excess of 130 km/h elsewhere away from inland SE. Sustained winds of 90 km/h+ along the Atlantic coastline of the SW, W and N.
Please note that a Red Wind Warning is in place for all 32 counties of Ireland. Consult http://met.ieand http://metoffice.gov.uk for the latest warning details and additional guidance.
www.weatheire.com
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