Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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An area of low pressure in The Atlantic east of St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, will continue to deepen falling to 949mb during Sunday. The system will make minimal progress eastward across The Atlantic and it does not pose a threat to Ireland and Britain. It does, however, demonstrate the potential for other systems to develop over the next 1-2 weeks as we enter a positive NAO phase.
Moderate to fresh and occasionally strong southerly and southwesterly winds will dominate for the coming week in Ireland. Model output suggests that low pressure systems will track to the northwest of Ireland later next week, which means the strongest winds assoicated with these systems will remain offshore. This may change as we get closer to the forecast period.
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The remainder of the coming week will be unsettled with spells of heavy rain and strong south to south-westerly winds as Atlantic low pressure systems track close to Ireland.
Gusts of more than 60-70km/h can be expected during Tuesday and Wednesday, with gusts reaching 85-90 km/h during the first half of Thursday ahead of much stronger winds across Ireland on Friday morning.
All parts of Ireland will experience strong winds on Friday with gusts of more than 100 km/h likely.Saturday will be less windy day as a deep area of low pressure tracks to the northwest of Ireland bringing maximum gusts of 100-110km/h to the west and north on Sunday.
Rain will be a feature of our weather each day with the exception of Saturday which will be largely dry and bright across the country.
Temperatures for the week will be above average and will range from 11 to 14c each day. Overnight temperatures will remain well above freezing.
Next week is looking less unsettled, but it will turn cooler as winds shift westerly.
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Expected windy conditions later this week are the result of an energised jet stream in the North Atlantic that is developing due to a steep temperature gradient between an Arctic air mass moving deep into the southern US States (first image) and warm subtropical air mass originating from the Caribbean.
A strong stratospheric polar vortex is also helping to enhance the jet stream.The jet stream is a relatively narrow band of strong wind travelling west to east in the upper levels of the atmosphere, typically occurring at an altitude of 30,000 feet. The band often shifts north and south because jet streams follow the boundaries between hot and cold air and, ultimately, act like a conveyer belt for Atlantic depressions. The energy generated by the steep temperature gradient mentioned above is illustrated in the forecast jet stream position and strength for this Saturday (second image).
At present, the strongest wind gusts in Ireland this week are unlikely to exceed 110 km/h so a repeat of Storms Darragh and Éowyn is highly unlikely due to the north-westerly and offshore track of the low pressure systems on Thursday, Friday and Sunday.
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Ireland will be impacted by four seperate periods of strong winds over the next five days, namely Thursday afternoon/evening (SW wind), Friday morning (S wind), Sunday morning (S wind) and Sunday evening (W wind). Sunday evening will produce gusts of up to 110km/h in Atlantic coastal counties, particularly in the north and west. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected up to and including Sunday. Saturday will be drier and less windy however. It remains unclear if Sunday's system will meet the criteria for named storm status. Should it do so, it would be named Storm Floris and would be the sixth named storm of the season.
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Some strong Southerly winds showing up across the country from early tomorrow especially along the S, SE and E, surprised Dublin not included in the wind warning. Heavy driving rain at times and a good bit of run off from high ground in the S and SE from already saturated ground.
Wind along the coasts in the SE and E look very strong for a time. Could get a few isolated thunderstorms overnight and the parameters there for thunderstorms up along the Western Seaboard tomorrow .
Fairly strong looking winds coupled with heavy rain along the S and SE for a time early morning but blowing through fairly quickly by around mid morning.
Mild overnight and tomorrow .
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Latest charts showing it to be quite windy across the country on Sunday from early morning along with heavy frontal rain and heavy showers following. A lot of rainfall showing up again in 24hrs over Sunday from early morning, lucky Saturday is mostly dry apart from a few showers. Looks to be quite mild.
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Islands in the Stream
he jetstream will sit over Ireland and Britain during Sunday as strong to gale force winds accompanied by heavy rain move in from the west. Top wind gusts exceeding 110 km/h arelikely in exposed coastal areas of the west and south, with gusts of 85 to 95 km/h elsewhere There will be up to one inch of rainfall in the parts of the southwest and west, with the lowest totals in the northeast.
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Frost will return next week as a result of a Polar Maritime Airmass becoming established over Ireland and Britain.
The GFS model suggests temperatures will drop close to freezing on Tuesday night in sheltered inland spots with more widespread frost on Wednesday and Thursday nights.
Wednesday looks to be the wettest day of the coming week with spot flooding possible.
Daytime temperatures will be around or slightly above average for the week with the exception of Thursday, the penultimate day of the meteorological winter, when some wintry showers could occur.
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Cooler week coming with the 528dam line close to or over parts of the country at times, Showers at times more so in the Western half of the country and more out by the coastal areas. Could be seeing some hail and sleet showers, maybe some mountain caps getting a dusting at times. The frontal passage later Tues into Weds followed by showers looks like it could be during the late evening at the coldest time of the day so might produce some sleet and wet snow at best if it gets cold enough but more so high ground, not really cold enough for much sticking at this stage anyway. Frost in places during the week but not looking too sharp. Weather like that coming in from the Atlantic under the cold airmass bound to be a bit convective in nature giving scattered heavy localised showers and may produce some isolated thunderstorms at times but probably short lived pulse type thunderstorms, more so towards the Atlantic coasts but also plenty of sunny bright spells for many during the week. Thurs Fri might be the drier days before the advancing frontal rain maybe later Fri.
Fresh cold W'lys along Atlantic coastal areas with a bit of NW from around Weds into Thurs, slack winds on Thurs maybe before turning more Southerly before the advancing front on Fri and getting briefly milder.
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The coming week's weather
Gardeners beware as frost is likely in places during the coming week.
Daytime temperatures will remain around average for the time of year at 7-10c. Overnight temperatures will drop close to or below freezing in locations sheltered from the prevailing westerly breeze, which will turn northerly later Wednesday into Thursday.
Rainfall totals will be highest on the Atlantic seaboard but totals overall will be below average. Up to Friday morning, inland parts of east Ulster, east Connacht and the northern half of Leinster may only see trace amounts (1-2mm).
For farmers, there will be a slight improvement in drying conditions with all well-drained soils currently saturated and poorly drained soils waterlogged.
The latest weather model output suggests mixed signals about what next weekend's weather may bring. Using 1.00pm on Saturday (the first day of the meteorological spring) as a timestamp, some of the main models indicate a high pressure influence while others favour Atlantic zonal conditions.
The consensus would be for a continuation of the coming week's weather which will bring largely dry conditions to the eastern half of Ireland with any rainfall to the western half.
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