Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2024/2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
The UKV Met Office high-resolution weather model has a 123mp/h (197 km/h) gust from #StormÉowyn forecast for the area around atMace Head in Galway.
Can it make the top 5 wind gusts recorded in Ireland? (hopefully not!):
182 km/h Limerick (Foynes Airport)Jan 18th 1945
181 km/h Donegal (Malin Head)Sep 16th 1961 Debbie
178 km/h Donegal (Malin Head)Dec 26th 1998
178 km/h Wexford (Rosslare)Oct 24th 1995
172 km/h Mayo (Belmullet)Feb 9th 1988
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
Even at this late stage of the day, the ICON has produced a significant upgrade for wind gust potential in the west of Ireland. Notably, the red weather warning for the Isle of Man for violent storm force winds is more than justified based on the 18z run.
The primary reason for the change is that the ICON has moved a tad further inland into Mayo and Donegal. The strongest winds will be wrapped to the south of the storm centre.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
Storm Éowyn could yet have a sting in its tail.
The scorpion tail-like feature in the below satellite animation (cant post videos here. sorry) is conducive to the formation of a sting jet. These features are rarely wider than 20 km and last up to 2-3 hours , which means their impact is highly localised. Winds can reach speeds of 160km/h or more.
Numerous sting jets (explainer ) have been recorded in our neck of the woods including in southern England in October 1987 and Storm Darwin in 2014, amongst others. Darwin (pictured) produced a 10-minute mean wind speed of 113 km/h and a 159 km/h gust at Shannon Airport.
This is an observation rather than a forecast for fear of frightening anyone more than they may already be. If such a feature were to develop, there is no guarantee that it will move over land. Most high-res models keep the system just off our main coastline.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
Storm of the century (this one or last)?
A rare event in which modelling continues to upgrade wind potential even as Storm Eowyn is on our doorstep. Aside from the insane max gusts for the west, the potential for signficant gusts extends right through the Midlands to the Irish Sea coast at Louth.
The Aran Islands off the coast of Clare and Galway will be at the centre of this storm.
Fully expecting the lights to go out here in West Clare in a few hours so apologies in advance if I go dark also!
Latest
NOAA Airmass-RGB satellite image included.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
And away she blows.
Storm Éowyn continues to track ENE to north of Scotland leaving blustery conditions and scattered sleet and snow showers drifting into western and northwestern counties of Ireland overnight. Mostly dry elsewhere.
Some lightning reported in Killybegs, Donegal in the past hour (see image).
Back to the 120+ hours.
An occluded front will bring scattered outbreaks of rain (sleet or snow on mountains) from west to east across Ireland from midday tomorrow.
Moderate southerly later turning southwesterly winds will follow quickly in behind. There will be a lull in the winds Saturday night before a deeper area of low pressure brings very strong winds across the country from the southwest on Sunday morning.
Keep an eye on Met.ie and metoffice.gov.ie for any warnings that are issued. Should the storm be named, it will be called Storm Floris. Floris is of Dutch origin and it means Flourish/Prosper. Doesn't sound too bad!www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
Good news on the weather front (episode 1 of the year 2025):
There is a signal for high pressure to rise at the end of the coming week introducing drier and calmer conditions.
The top graph in the ensembles from the European (ECMWF) and US (GFS) models show broad agreement for high pressure to be situated close to Ireland. The bottom graph shows anticipated precipitation levels, which are signalled to be lower than present levels.
The red line on the pressure and precip graphs signify the average of all of the various members (perturbations) of the respective models, hence there being a consensus toward drier and calmer weather.
The operational runs of the models (the GFS used as an example) show heights building from the south from midweek and settling further to our east and holding into the following week.
In such a setup, fog and frost can become a feature of our weather. Light rain or drizzle can also affect western and northwestern parts at times if the high pressure system drifts a little further east.
Both ensembles also show the pressure drop associated with this Sunday's low pressure system, named #stormHerminia by the Spanish Meteorological Service. The system did not meet the criteria to be named by our region's storm naming group, which includes the UK Met Office, Met Éireann and KNMI.
One caveat in a generally positive outlook is the forecast continuation of a mobile Atlantic regime as indicated in the latest NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) forecast. A positive NAO suggests a more active Atlantic setup (see image 4). This however, can be negated by high pressure building close to Ireland from our east which would act as a block to any Atlantic systems.
www.weatheire.com
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Deep low pressure transitting Ireland but isobars not tightly packed over land, windy during frontal passage and around the coasts but not too strong overland. Slow moving and filling , drifts away to the NE later Mon into Tues. Warnings highlighting the risk to already weakened trees or structures from the storm so care needed. Heavy rain in the SW and S at times, accumulations building up over the next day or so. Frosty nights in places.
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
to add to the post by @Meteorite58
As named by the Spanish Meteorological Service, Storm Herminia will impact our weather during Sunday and to a lesser extent into Monday.
The system did not meet the criteria to be named by our region's storm naming group, which includes the UK Met Office, Met Éireann and KNMI.
MetEireann has issued Status Yellow Warnings for wind and rain for much of the southern half of Ireland.
The Harmonie model suggests that parts of the southeast may experience slightly stronger wind gust than those recorded at places like Johnstown Castle in Wexford during Storm Éowyn. The max gust chart is enclosed below.
The second image illustrates likely precipitation totals. Up to two inches of rain could fall in southern coastal counties and even higher totals in the mountains of West Cork and South Kerry, which will serve to swell river levels here.
See www.met.ie for full details.www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
All locations should see sunshine at some point during Wednesday and Thursday. Here is the forecast cloud cover for the next 72 hours, based on latest GFS.
📸Meteociel
Any precipitation during this period will be restricted to northwestern coastal locations.
📸Meteociel
Winds be fresh northerly tomorrow making it feel much colder. On Thursday, winds will begin to moderate northwesterly before veering to a light-moderate southerly by evening. Much breezier in the northwest Thursday evening.
📸Meteociel
Daytime temperatures will range 5-9c after cold starts to both days. Overnight temperatures will range +1c to -2c.
📸Meteociel
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Mod ✭✭✭✭Join Date:Posts: 1552
Outbreaks of rain will slowly clear eastern counties this morning, while drier and brighter conditions are already spreading into the west. Temperatures dropping to 7-10c as the cold front passes through.
A breezy day today with moderate SW winds and scattered showers or rain, with some possibly of hail.
Turning drier with spells of sunshine from tomorrow, but feeling colder with temperatures dropping to 6 to 8c. Overnight frosts will become a feature of our weather from Wednesday night.
Drying conditions will be excellent from Thursday as winds switch from SW to SE.www.weatheire.com
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An area of very low temperatures transiting the country from East to West over the coming days producing low surface temperatures by day and freezing through the night/ early morning. Quite fresh for a time along the East making it feel very cold and possibly keeping the temps up over freezing there by night, breezy at times across the country. Light snow on higher ground possible giving some Mt tops a dusting, the Wicklow Mts could see a fair dusting and streamer like localized showers could set up moving in from the East especially across the midlands, maybe more falling as light snow/ graupel a bit inland and a few hail showers, not widespread but more in stripes and patches with most areas staying dry. Feeling very cold with the windchill effect .
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