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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Agree with all of this. There was over 50k houses sold last year. Around 7k of them had HTB.
    That 7k is undoubtedly massively concentrated in new build 3bed semi-Ds sub 500k so expect it would be pushing prices up here…which is precisely what government want to stimulate more of them.

    It’s inflationary impact elsewhere is likely to be fair less significant



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Finance costs alone and availability of finance for developers is a major cost for building. The state is running big surpluses at the minute, we can afford to offer very low interest rate loans to developers to stimulate construction.

    This takes the risk off developer and onto the state (who can take land/assets as collateral in event of default), less risk = more activity given the possible profits remain the same (or higher actually due to lower loan repayments)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    Asset values be it land etc only have a value when they are sold.

    So let's look at our recent history were developers had massive loans to financial institutions and they went bankrupt and the banks had to take a " haircut" on the debts of the bankrupt developers. The assets the developers had were not worth enough to repay/act as collateral for the debts.

    What you are saying in theory "should" work but in practice won't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    It never ceases to amaze me when it comes to posters and basic economics. Everything has a cost be it a financial one and opportunity cost etc.

    Private business is there to make money nothing more nothing less and if you try to control a market it reacts, that's what business is.

    Simple economics since the beginning of time suggests if supply increases price falls, for supply to increase there must be something to encourage that increase. If a market is dominated by a small number of large suppliers or buyers they can have a significant impact on the operation of the market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Its for build to rent therefore not free, rather utilising state assets to offset spending elsewhere and derive an income from often idle land.

    If the private sector is so efficient why do costs increase substantially each year. Under my plan private sector also builds

    Would such countries also have severe housing problems



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  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you ran a business, you wouldn’t ask why costs of doing business increase.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    Because thats what all businesses do they maximise profit. Remember one businesses output is another's inputs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Housing is 30% of the inflation basket figure. Tackle that successfully and you go a long way to improving competitiveness, something a small open economy should be watching very carefully



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The global financial crisis, and the crash in Ireland saw demand for property plummet to almost nothing, which is why asset prices didn't cover the cost of outstanding loans.

    That is a million miles away from where we are now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Bit of a link dump but relevant to why ftb are buying 2nd hand properties over new homes

    Apparently the uninterferred market is cheaper than so called "affordable" new homes market

    Surprise!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 852 ✭✭✭FernandoTorres


    That article is fairly ironic in that it goes on about how misleading it is to call properties affordable by comparing it to second hand listing prices without any regard for the fact that listing prices are completely misleading in themselves. Pretty much nothing in Dubin will sell for near its listing price these days, making the whole comparison nonsense!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    For someone that lectures others on basic economics, you seem to have quickly forgotten the effects of state policies and inactions pumping asset prices has on an economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    The result of state inaction is why we are where we are. The state abdicated its responsibility to house people and left it to the private sector simply because it can't manage the process.

    Cant/wont pay your rent don't worry we will introduce a mechanism that delays your actual eviction so your not the States responsibility for now.

    What exactly do you think businesses do? They look to earn profits again simple economics!

    Want to solve the housing crisis get the state to build themselves, but don't want to go back to council estates because of anti social issues! Deal with that issue and you go a good way towards dealing with the housing crisis.

    But sorry I forgot "I'm entitled" to this or that, do you actually think any politician is going to take hard decisions?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    You might also notice that duplexes are cheaper than houses which might be a shock to Dublin developers.

    As other posters state Business have to make profit and when you have a government with a blank cheque book backed up by other people's money and lobbyists from government parties. You make hay while the sun shines. Organic growth, I believe is the politically correct term

    Nothing more dangerous than fools with other people's money

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Mike on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    Why does the first property quote "reduced prices" in the article. So who is paying for the "reduction" in price? Also the article indicates this is a shared ownership scheme.

    Or that the second property is listed as secondhand on the ppr register .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    From the council website It looks like the affordable home is priced at 15% below "market" value (the figure quoted). The council then takes an equity share depending on your max mortgage between 5 and 15% of the above discount

    The 2nd property is to show that you can get a similar property for less than the affordable house price on the 2nd hand private market without any subsidies

    This means that the only effect of the subsidies is to drive up price and risk to the buyer/council

    https://www.limerick.ie/council/services/housing/affordable-housing/affordable-home-purchase-scheme


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,349 ✭✭✭The Student


    "The attached suggests "First-time buyers and those seeking a fresh start will be eligible to purchase homes which are significantly discounted from market rates"

    https://www.ilovelimerick.ie/bru-na-gruadan-castletroy/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7 piberry


    Another insight into where taxpayer money is being allocated for apparently affordable housing, this time for a new apartment development in Limerick City. I'm hoping some of the otherwise unfathomable figures quoted are a misprint. Below is from a Limerick Post article last Wednesday:

    It is understood that 17 of the planned units will transfer to Limerick City and County Council to be used as social and affordable housing at a cost of over €9million.

    One-bed units would cost the council an average of €505,000 each, while a two-bed would see the council shell out over €660,000 each.

    These prices “reflect the high standard of design and specification of the proposed residential units, amenities, and facilities,” the planning files state.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 383 ✭✭Montys return




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,036 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Looks like the owners of Arthur's Quay shopping centre are not going to let this opportunity of a lifetime pass them by either.

    There is no end to the madness



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,806 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    I'm doing some reading up on The Affordable Home Purchase Scheme after the developer in a local estate put a few houses up for sale in conjunction with the Local Authority.

    I am shocked that a three bed house that was available to purchase from the developer a year ago for €420,000 is now being listed with a market value of €500,000 by the developer. This is resulting in applicants being required to afford repayments on a mortgage of between €400,000 and €470,000.

    This comes across as a blatant scam to me. How are the houses now valued at €500,000 when the developer was selling the exact same units a year ago for €420,000? Oh and these houses have sat vacant for a year during a housing crisis, but that's another discussion.

    Am I missing something here? What is the story with this scheme?

    It's also disgraceful that €400,000 is considered 'affordable' for a three bed house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,917 ✭✭✭DataDude


    No idea on the first part, but if you do the maths on the mortgage.
    €400k @ 3.6% (AIB) for 35 years gives a monthly mortgage payment of €1,662.

    Using the old calculation of an affordable mortgage being 1/3rd of household net take home pay would mean you need a monthly household net income of €4,980. €2,490 per person. €30k net annual, €35k gross annual per person.

    Median full time salary these days is c.€50k.

    Seems affordable to me. Could you even rent a 1 bed apartment for €1,650 in many places these days?



  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A year is a long time in property sales, if the 420k units sold out a year ago, it is conceivable that they would sell for 500k now if the demand is there. Is there a condition in the planning that these houses had to be social/affordable housing? That might explain why they remained vacant, or, the developer may have held onto them for a higher price.
    Which estate are you referring to?

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The area around Bŕu Na Gruadan and the estate itself would have a lot of Student accommodation. It would not be a high priced area. Move that house a mile away into Monaleen and it probably be 100k more.

    Its the reality of a lot of locations. The LA for instance often pay 100k+ to renovate houses in some LA estates, where is a house comes for sale it much the same price to buy. Its similar to the recession where houses sold for less than build value.

    Locally there is an affordable scheme of 8 houses being build........for the last 5 years. COVID interrupted the process when it started ( they were being build for the LA) as prices exceeded costs the build stopped. The LA had not the flexibility to renegotiate the contract. An affordable housing entity then took over the site about two years ago and its still not finished.

    No state body should have anything to do with build housing.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its absolutely affordable for said hypothetical household (especially compared to renting), but theres no way a household with €70k gross income is getting a €400k mortgage from the banks. Thats as big a problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,620 ✭✭✭combat14


    sure thats only a mere 20% increase on already heady prices



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  • Posts: 14,768 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If that is market value, then that’s market value.



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