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Football ranking table
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It feels like we've jumped straight into the middle of the championship, with no fewer than 9 games kicking off this weekend.
The full prediction output is attached (minus the NY vs Mayo game because any games involving New York always throw up errors in creating tables, due to the few games they have played).
Two games that deserve attention:
- Meath have been on a downward trend the last few games, whereas Longford have been looking good, apart from the final game against Wexford. Given the big beating that they took against Meath recently in the championship, there might be a shock on the cards here
- Forever the underdogs, Waterford do not ever seem to fear Tipperary in either league or championship. Could be a lot closer than 4 points.
Post edited by laoisman11 on0 -
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Some nice shocks to get the championship started!
- Cavan's bonus point win over Monaghan sees them gain a massive 6.9 rating points, and they climb 5 places in the rankings; Monaghan, meanwhile, drop 5 places to 16th, their lowest rank since April 2013
- Wicklow took many by surprise by overcoming Westmeath - the teams exchange 6 rating points
- Waterford's surprise win over Tipp gains them 4.2 rating points, but it's not enough to lift them off the bottom of the table; Tipp fall to 31st, their lowest since April 2007
- Sligo's win over Leitrim brings them to 17th, their highest since March 2016
- Carlow's poor year continues with a big loss to Wexford, costing them 1.2 rating points
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Six games up this weekend, some insights from the in-depth prediction model:
- Antrim's recent form has been quite poor and they haven't done so well versus Down recently
- Both Kildare and Wicklow's recent results don't make for pretty reading and Kildare often have difficulty against the Garden county
- Wexford's recent form is interesting, and they might give Louth a good rattle
- Fermanagh's form has been very erratic, despite some good, albeit, losing performances in Division 2
Full prediction model output attached (and I've noticed that the details in the Fixtures column of section 5 of each game is quite often gibberish or completely wrong - I will remove it next week and hopefully get some time to tidy it up at a later date) and a summary below
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Prediction model output attached, and predictions below.
- 14, 13 and 24 were the winning margins for Galway in their last 3 meetings with Sligo, difficult to see much changing this weekend
- Waterford seem to alternate between good and poor performances versus Clare, and this year is due to be a poor one
- There is a huge rating difference between Kerry and Cork, and home advantage tells the model that the winning margin will be significant
- Both Derry and Donegal are coming into this meeting with good form, with the 6 previous games between the sides going more or less as predicted. But with new management on both sidelines, could this year be different?
- Just 3 wins for Roscommon over Mayo in their previous 20 match-ups, and the defeats have occassionally been harrowing (2009, 2017)
- Hard to understand the form of Cavan and Tyrone - apart from the big losses to Armagh and Fermanagh, Cavan had a very solid Div 2, whereas Tyrone, with the exception of the Dublin mauling, had a reasonably solid Div 1 campaign. Cavan haven't beaten Tyrone in the championship in more than 30 years….but this year could be tight
Post edited by laoisman11 on4 -
All the shocks were up north this last weekend…….
- Donegal's huge win over Derry was a turn up for the books, with Donegal gaining 8.2 rating points; Derry drop a massive 4 places to 6th
- Tyrone's extra-time win over Cavan helps propel them up to 5th in the rankings
- Mayo and Galway made minor gains, and no rating points were exchanged in the 2 Munster games
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Prediction model output attached for this weekend's games:
- Little to extract from the form or previous history of Armagh nor Down, the superior rating position of Armagh should swing it for them
- Offaly have somehow managed to avoid Dublin since 2007 in the championship (I must look up how long it has been since Dublin have met other teams, notably in Leinster where they have been so succesful); Offaly's last victory was 1982
- Kildare's recent form has been cack, whereas Louth seem to be on a roll; notably, Louth have beaten Kildare in their last 2 (league) outings
- While Donegal's victory over Derry is the standount in their recent performances, they have excceded expectations by an average of 3 points this year
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Ranking table updated following the last 2 weekend's rounds of games:
- Donegal now sit in 2nd place, which is a mind-boggling compared to where they started 2024, back in 13th place
- Galway's narrow win results in them jumping 4 places in the ranking, dropping Mayo to 5th
- Louth and Armagh also made small rating point gains following victories over Kildare and Down, respectively
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Getting this week's predictions in early……
- Two first time championship meetings (since 1925 at least!) to look forward to (Sligo vs Wexford; Down vs Limerick)
- KIldare's form is abysmal, but they are sitting almost 15 rating points higher than Longford
- Both Sligo and Wexford are on very good runs of form but home advantage should swing it Sligo's way
- There isn't much between Fermanagh and Wicklow in terms of rating points, and Wicklow have performed excellently in their last 2 games - a potential shock on the cards here?
- Down to beat Limerick well; Leitrim to take care of Waterford; Offaly to beat London and Antrim to give Tipp a tipping
- Laois and Carlow's form have been highly erratic, but Laois have not lost to Carlow in either league or championship since 1988
- Not much to be said for Dublin vs Louth, just hoping that Louth can keep it tighter this
- Armagh have underperformed in 3 of their last 4 games, whereas Donegal's have equalled or outperformed in their last 8 games. What a return it would be for McGuinness if Donegal could pull this off.
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Ranking table update after this weekend's excitement…
- The huge winners are London, following a demolition of Offaly in O'Connor Park. Not many teams have managed to gain 9 rating points from one match, but few have done it so convincingly
- (London's win drops Tipperary to 32nd, their lowest ever ranking)
- Donegal won't be dismayed that they lost 1.8 rating points in drawing with Armagh - the Ulster title is ample reward for an amazing season to date
- Fermanagh, Sligo, Carlow and Leitrim also picked up rating points, but the rating difference was too large in the remaining 4 games for the favourites to increase their worth
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No more than 12 games up for decision this weekend!
Some first time championship meetings (Waterford vs Kildare; Carlow vs Fermanagh) and a few 2nd ever championship meetings (Wexford vs Antrim; Tipp vs Sligo; London vs Down; Longford vs Leitrim) bringing a lot of novelty…
- Four from four for Galway in their previous championship games with Derry, and apart from this year's league game, Galway have won the previous 7 meetings between the sides
- Mayo have been slightly below form this year, whereas Cavan's form is erratic
- Clare always seem to get on well versus Cork, it would be no surprise if this was tight
- Both Kerry and Monaghan have poor form over most of their games in 2024 but Kerry's superior rating should bring them through safely
- A big win for Kildare vs Waterford (if they have rediscovered their mojo!)
- Wexford to bounce back from 2 poor defeats and avenge last year's loss to Antrim
- Sligo to take care of an out-of-form Tipp side
- Limerick have been doing ok lately; hard to know how Offaly will react to last weekend's meltdown, they performed 25 points less than expected vs London (which is why the dot does not show on the graph!)
- Hard to see London overcome the huge rating gap between themselves and Down
- Both Carlow and Fermanagh have been hugely erratic, this could be a 10-point win for either!
- History shows that Longford-Leitrim games are tight, relatively low-scoring affairs
- Hoping Laois can continue their form of 2 poor results, followed by 2 good results….but Wicklow have home advantage, which will probably swing it their way
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