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Football ranking table

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,688 ✭✭✭theoneeyedman


    Just to acknowledge the efforts of laoisman11, always interesting ratings and plenty more accurate than many of the other top 10 and ranking tables that are often listed in the normal media.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    "Dishonorable mentions to Cork, Armagh, Antrim and Carlow who all lost more than 3 rating points"

    Armagh lost one game by a point, their problem was that their high starting position meant that their victories yielded nothing whatever the margin was. If Monaghan have a similar championship performance to last year, they may well get promoted next year from Div 2 while actually losing rating points.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    It was the draws with Cork and Donegal and the loss to Donegal in the league final that resulted in Armagh losing more than they gained in Division 2. And yes, they started out a lot higher than the other teams.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    It feels like we've jumped straight into the middle of the championship, with no fewer than 9 games kicking off this weekend.

    The full prediction output is attached (minus the NY vs Mayo game because any games involving New York always throw up errors in creating tables, due to the few games they have played).

    Two games that deserve attention:

    • Meath have been on a downward trend the last few games, whereas Longford have been looking good, apart from the final game against Wexford. Given the big beating that they took against Meath recently in the championship, there might be a shock on the cards here
    • Forever the underdogs, Waterford do not ever seem to fear Tipperary in either league or championship. Could be a lot closer than 4 points.

    Post edited by laoisman11 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Nine games, Monaghan v Cavan. And if Home/Away is of any consequence to predictions, the Westmeath Wicklow game is in Portlaoise.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Thanks! It was in the PDF but didn't come out in the table; updated now!



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Some nice shocks to get the championship started!

    • Cavan's bonus point win over Monaghan sees them gain a massive 6.9 rating points, and they climb 5 places in the rankings; Monaghan, meanwhile, drop 5 places to 16th, their lowest rank since April 2013
    • Wicklow took many by surprise by overcoming Westmeath - the teams exchange 6 rating points
    • Waterford's surprise win over Tipp gains them 4.2 rating points, but it's not enough to lift them off the bottom of the table; Tipp fall to 31st, their lowest since April 2007
    • Sligo's win over Leitrim brings them to 17th, their highest since March 2016
    • Carlow's poor year continues with a big loss to Wexford, costing them 1.2 rating points



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Six games up this weekend, some insights from the in-depth prediction model:

    • Antrim's recent form has been quite poor and they haven't done so well versus Down recently
    • Both Kildare and Wicklow's recent results don't make for pretty reading and Kildare often have difficulty against the Garden county
    • Wexford's recent form is interesting, and they might give Louth a good rattle
    • Fermanagh's form has been very erratic, despite some good, albeit, losing performances in Division 2

    Full prediction model output attached (and I've noticed that the details in the Fixtures column of section 5 of each game is quite often gibberish or completely wrong - I will remove it next week and hopefully get some time to tidy it up at a later date) and a summary below



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Only 1 major shock this weekend, with Laois losing out heavily at home to Offaly who were lower rated; Laois and Offaly exchange 6.5 rating points and swap ranking places 20-25



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 52,748 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Cork are better than Meath and not as good as Galway, their position isn't too far away.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output attached, and predictions below.

    • 14, 13 and 24 were the winning margins for Galway in their last 3 meetings with Sligo, difficult to see much changing this weekend
    • Waterford seem to alternate between good and poor performances versus Clare, and this year is due to be a poor one
    • There is a huge rating difference between Kerry and Cork, and home advantage tells the model that the winning margin will be significant
    • Both Derry and Donegal are coming into this meeting with good form, with the 6 previous games between the sides going more or less as predicted. But with new management on both sidelines, could this year be different?
    • Just 3 wins for Roscommon over Mayo in their previous 20 match-ups, and the defeats have occassionally been harrowing (2009, 2017)
    • Hard to understand the form of Cavan and Tyrone - apart from the big losses to Armagh and Fermanagh, Cavan had a very solid Div 2, whereas Tyrone, with the exception of the Dublin mauling, had a reasonably solid Div 1 campaign. Cavan haven't beaten Tyrone in the championship in more than 30 years….but this year could be tight

    Post edited by laoisman11 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    All the shocks were up north this last weekend…….

    • Donegal's huge win over Derry was a turn up for the books, with Donegal gaining 8.2 rating points; Derry drop a massive 4 places to 6th
    • Tyrone's extra-time win over Cavan helps propel them up to 5th in the rankings
    • Mayo and Galway made minor gains, and no rating points were exchanged in the 2 Munster games



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,444 ✭✭✭crusd


    The model is great work and I feel it does arrive at the right result come year end, however mid season it does result in a few quirks. The benefit Donegal got from the result against Derry is disproportionate. There is no way one result means they have now shown that they are the third team in the country and similarly Derry have shown enough on a more extended time period to be higher than sixth. Roscommon and Cork swapping places is also as bit of a strange one. I understand its due to the relative rankings differences but you essentially had 3 beat 10 and 4 beat 9 by similar margins, so nothing to suggest a relative change, yet Roscommon were actually penalised for having been ranked higher, and therefore having the better long term form, before the game. I don't think there is much between those two teams, but Cork have definitely not done enough to warrant overtaking Roscommon as yet.

    Also, Monaghan down to 17th. A tough draw in the round robin could see them get a Dublin, Galway/ Mayo and Derry and there would be no shame in losing all 3, yet there would remain on the same points, yet team below them in the Tailteann could over take them by virtue of winning against poor sides.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    I agree fully that mid-season, there can be some outliers in terms of how teams move around but at the end of the year, things generally average out (although occasionally there can be exceptions and I try to highlight those).

    Where it is a bit more nuanced though, is that it is a rating point-based system but for simplicity of explanation, a ranking based system is what people see/expect to see.

    So for the Roscommon/Cork example above, it was more than 3rd beating 10th, and 4th beating 9th, it was 104.4 at home, so 107.4 beating 90.1, and 98.5 beating 93.2 (90.2+3). And there are vastly different rewards for beating a team close to you (5.3 rating points difference between Mayo and Roscommon) vs when there is a big gap (17.3 for Kerry-Cork).

    In general, 2 teams that are within 2 or 3 rating points of each other generally have very little between them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output attached for this weekend's games:

    • Little to extract from the form or previous history of Armagh nor Down, the superior rating position of Armagh should swing it for them
    • Offaly have somehow managed to avoid Dublin since 2007 in the championship (I must look up how long it has been since Dublin have met other teams, notably in Leinster where they have been so succesful); Offaly's last victory was 1982
    • Kildare's recent form has been cack, whereas Louth seem to be on a roll; notably, Louth have beaten Kildare in their last 2 (league) outings
    • While Donegal's victory over Derry is the standount in their recent performances, they have excceded expectations by an average of 3 points this year



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    I'm off on holidays for the next 10 days, so I will combine 2 week's updates after the weekend of May 5th. In the meantime, prediction model output attached for the Munster and Connacht finals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Ranking table updated following the last 2 weekend's rounds of games:

    • Donegal now sit in 2nd place, which is a mind-boggling compared to where they started 2024, back in 13th place
    • Galway's narrow win results in them jumping 4 places in the ranking, dropping Mayo to 5th
    • Louth and Armagh also made small rating point gains following victories over Kildare and Down, respectively



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Getting this week's predictions in early……

    • Two first time championship meetings (since 1925 at least!) to look forward to (Sligo vs Wexford; Down vs Limerick)
    • KIldare's form is abysmal, but they are sitting almost 15 rating points higher than Longford
    • Both Sligo and Wexford are on very good runs of form but home advantage should swing it Sligo's way
    • There isn't much between Fermanagh and Wicklow in terms of rating points, and Wicklow have performed excellently in their last 2 games - a potential shock on the cards here?
    • Down to beat Limerick well; Leitrim to take care of Waterford; Offaly to beat London and Antrim to give Tipp a tipping
    • Laois and Carlow's form have been highly erratic, but Laois have not lost to Carlow in either league or championship since 1988
    • Not much to be said for Dublin vs Louth, just hoping that Louth can keep it tighter this
    • Armagh have underperformed in 3 of their last 4 games, whereas Donegal's have equalled or outperformed in their last 8 games. What a return it would be for McGuinness if Donegal could pull this off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Offaly v London prediction didn't quite work out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,872 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    London's 11 years without a championship win, and having won a single league game in the last 2 years somehow caused the model to doubt them….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    They drew with Loais in the Tailteann last year. But lost to Offaly by 9, also in Tullamore. Laois drew with Offaly. Funny old game. In the Pools thread Laoisman11 went for Offaly by 17, higher than anyone else I think. This is not a criticism. If he is in Laois he might be able to find out is there something rotten in the Kingdom of Offaly.

    London were this close to progressing out of their group in 2023, game played in Dublin. Maybe they concentrate more on the Tailteann than Divison 4?

    Tailteann Cup Group One Laois 1-17 London 2-14

    By Alan Hartnett at Parnell Park.

    Former League of Ireland goalkeeper Niall Corbet was Laois' hero as his late point saved them from Tailteann Cup elimination and stopped London from pulling off an almighty shock.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    To be honest, I don't have any special insight into what happened but it was a huge shock. I was expecting Offaly to bounce back well after the Dublin game and they had beaten Laois well. Laois's result against Carlow shows how over rated Laois were…and in hindsight, Offaly had some very poor results for the first few years of the Qualifiers.

    London will get the maximum rating points for it, that's for certain. I will try to put those up later.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Ranking table update after this weekend's excitement…

    • The huge winners are London, following a demolition of Offaly in O'Connor Park. Not many teams have managed to gain 9 rating points from one match, but few have done it so convincingly
    • (London's win drops Tipperary to 32nd, their lowest ever ranking)
    • Donegal won't be dismayed that they lost 1.8 rating points in drawing with Armagh - the Ulster title is ample reward for an amazing season to date
    • Fermanagh, Sligo, Carlow and Leitrim also picked up rating points, but the rating difference was too large in the remaining 4 games for the favourites to increase their worth



  • Registered Users Posts: 1 utility man


    Why is there no rating change for Kildare after a 26 point win. Fermanagh received 2.5 by beating Wicklow by much less and a not dissimilar ranking difference. BTW I really enjoy your table..



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,451 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hammer Archer


    Looking at the previous table, Kildare were close to 14.3 ranking points ahead of Longford (and at home). Fermanagh were only 3.6 points ahead of Wicklow. Kildare's home advantage most likely pushed them above the threshold, above which any Kildare victory would not have had any impact on their or Longford's points totals. Fermanagh's home advantage wouldn't have pushed them above that threshold so their big victory had an impact on their points.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    No more than 12 games up for decision this weekend!

    Some first time championship meetings (Waterford vs Kildare; Carlow vs Fermanagh) and a few 2nd ever championship meetings (Wexford vs Antrim; Tipp vs Sligo; London vs Down; Longford vs Leitrim) bringing a lot of novelty…

    • Four from four for Galway in their previous championship games with Derry, and apart from this year's league game, Galway have won the previous 7 meetings between the sides
    • Mayo have been slightly below form this year, whereas Cavan's form is erratic
    • Clare always seem to get on well versus Cork, it would be no surprise if this was tight
    • Both Kerry and Monaghan have poor form over most of their games in 2024 but Kerry's superior rating should bring them through safely
    • A big win for Kildare vs Waterford (if they have rediscovered their mojo!)
    • Wexford to bounce back from 2 poor defeats and avenge last year's loss to Antrim
    • Sligo to take care of an out-of-form Tipp side
    • Limerick have been doing ok lately; hard to know how Offaly will react to last weekend's meltdown, they performed 25 points less than expected vs London (which is why the dot does not show on the graph!)
    • Hard to see London overcome the huge rating gap between themselves and Down
    • Both Carlow and Fermanagh have been hugely erratic, this could be a 10-point win for either!
    • History shows that Longford-Leitrim games are tight, relatively low-scoring affairs
    • Hoping Laois can continue their form of 2 poor results, followed by 2 good results….but Wicklow have home advantage, which will probably swing it their way



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,872 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Model earned its crust today, calling all winners except for Offaly,

    But Offaly seem to not be trying, which the model can't account for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    However, Laois beat Wicklow, albeit by the minimum margin. They are much the same ranking, so a one point victory is not unexpected.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Ranking table update:

    • Limerick were the big winners, moving up 6 places in the rankings (or Offaly the big losers for 2 consecutive weekends) following a bonus-point win over a higher ranked Offaly side. Offaly are now at their lowest since April 2015
    • Laois's narrow victory over Wicklow results in a gain of 4 rating points and 3 ranking places
    • Leitrim's good win away to Longford sees them gain 3.9 rating points
    • Antrim, Cork and Galway also power ahead following good wins



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for the 4 games this weekend attached:

    • Not much to read into the recent form of Donegal or Tyrone, except that Donegal had been exceeding expectations based on their low start of year rating, but now have perhaps hit a plateau, and that Tyrnoe (with the exception of the Dublin result) appear to be quite consistent
    • Westmeath have mixed the bad (losses to Sligo and Wicklow) with the good (league final) recently whereas Armagh have been playing at a different level - the question is probably Armagh's mental state after the Ulster final penalty loss. Previous games indicate that we can expect at least 2 goals in this one
    • Nothing between Louth and Meath in terms of rating points, but a lot between them in terms of form - Meath have performed on average approx. 5 points less than expected in their last 4 games whereas Louth are on average approx. +3
    • Roscommon have never beaten Dublin in the championship, and coming off 4 consecutive losses they are unlikely to be in form to overcome the significant rating gap between the sides



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    • Only Louth and Donegal picked up rating points last weekend, at the expense of Meath and Tyrone
    • Donegal rise to 2nd, but Kerry and Galway are not far behind



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    A massive 16 games on the cards for this weekend, there are sure to be many rank changes when all is done and dusted. I'm not going to comment on all the games, but these are the ones that stood out from looking at the in-depth prediction model output:

    • Cavan's last win over Dublin (and that was NFL) was in 1960!
    • Kildare have refound their mojo! They have overperformed in their last 2 games by more than 10 points than expected
    • Two of the most erratic teams in the country, Fermanagh and Laois go head to head; this is a game that could go either way, by big margins!
    • Monaghan's recent record is dismal (1 win from 11 games) whereas Louth have over-performed in each of their last 6 games
    • Meath have underperformed in their last 6 games, while Kerry, surprisingly enough (to me at least), have underperformed in 7 of their last 8 games; however, Kerry's superior rating will safely bring them through
    • Historically, there is very little between Derry and Armagh when they play, so a tight game could be expected
    • Sligo have overperformed in their last 6 games
    • Tipp have only 3 wins in their last 20 games



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,733 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    Interesting prediction for Derry Armagh - comfortably the tie of the weekend in my view.

    Monaghan Louth an interesting local derby - I wonder how many times those counties have played each other, given how close they are I cant ever remember a game between them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 44 colml cule


    Seems there is little to be gained for the likes of Westmeath, Clare, Cavan, Meath etc playing in Sam Maguire against vastly superior teams. Westmeath in particular having already fallen behind a few tailteann teams, this looks likely to continue?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    There is nothing to be lost. They are all 4th Seeds for a reason, but are equally entitled as the other Seeds to get their three extra games after the provincial championships. There would be no "weak" teams for the others to beat, if everybody had to be at the same level to be allowed to compete.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Ladbrokes have 16/1 for a bet with Armagh ahead at half time and a draw at the end.

    Louth have been in divisions below Monaghan and not progressing in recent years. When there was a North and South split in the league they played each more more.

    Westmeath might get something from one of their games, they drew with Tyrone last year, and that would move them up the table.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,872 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    When the tiers are very finely balanced (like in hurling) and teams regularly bounce up and down, we're told "it does nothing for these teams, they need to play superior teams all the time to improve, playing a lower level is demoralising etc.".

    But when the upper tier is padded out a bit more so that more weaker teams play at the higher level (like in football), we're told "it does nothing for these teams, they gain nothing from playing superior teams all the time, playing at the higher level is demoralising etc."



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Eleven of the 16 games from last weekened resulted in changes to the ranking table:

    • Tipp's 1 point win over Wexford gained them a massive 5.7 rating points (if they had lost, they would have dropped to last place in the rankings, which would have been their worst ever placing - small margins and all that…)
    • Cork picked up 5 rating points with an excellent win over Donegal
    • 4.6 rating points for Waterford after a big win over Longford - Longford now sit in last position, where they have not been since 1978!
    • Armagh's statement win over Derry brings them up to 3rd - Derry have dropped from 4th to 10th in a short period of time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,496 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The great thing about this ranking system is that you can just look at the table and say "yea that's about right".

    Donegal top 5, yeah that's about right.

    Derry slipping to 9th, yeah that's about right.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    The winners of Armagh and Galway will, briefly, be second in the country!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,562 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    The neutral venue games should have some close contests based on the rankings.

    Monaghan 14 v Meath 15. Cork 7 v Tyrone 8. Cavan 11 v Roscommon 12. Armagh 3 v Galway 4. Three of those are the Seed 3 v Seed 4 matches.

    And some mismatches.

    Donegal 5 v Clare 16. Derry 9 v Westmeath 20. Kerry 2 v Louth 10. The other match is Dublin 1 v Mayo 6. Three of those are Seeds 1 v 2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,307 ✭✭✭tanko


    Galway will hardly gain 3.5 points for beating a team ranked so close to them will they?



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    The closer teams are ranked, the more there is to gain for the favourite.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    I've changed computer since last week, and I'm not managing to get the PDF output to run exactly as before (I got it into html and then printed it as a PDF) so it's not the same quality. I've also had to remove New York from the advanced prediction output as they are constantly **** up my code somewhere…..

    • Very little to differentiate Leitrim and Wicklow, this one could be very tight
    • Tipp got their 2nd win of the year last weekend, but the difference in rating with Limerick suggests that it will be their last
    • Antrim have a huge rating advantage over London and are sure to make it count at home



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Minor changes at the bottom of the table after the 4 Tailteann Cup preliminary quarter-finals….



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Didn't get all the errors sorted out in the PDF file, but getting there….

    Main points for the last bumper weekend:

    • Derry's downturn in form is very evident but the model is giving them to win pretty comfortably
    • Absolutely nothing between Roscommon and Cavan in terms of rating points although Roscommon have only 1 win (vs Monaghan) in their last 12 games (compared to 4 for Cavan, vs Kildare, Cork, Louth and Monaghan)
    • Of their 13 ever meetings (11 in league, 2 in the championship), Clare have only won once and that was in 1983. Given the rating difference, Donegal look set for victory
    • Little betwen Cork and Tyrone either, this could be very close
    • Fermanagh's inconsistency continues, while Antrim are on a good run, with a record of 1 loss, 1 draw and 4 wins over their last 6 games
    • Limerick are coming off 3 solid wins, albeit against poor opposition; the game with Sligo might be a stretch too far though
    • With only 7 ever previous meetings, and at 0 from 1 in the championship vs Wicklow, Down will be looking ahead to a semi-final, but they won't have it all their own way
    • The 2nd biggest rating gap of the weekend in the Laois-Kildare game, and Laois have not had a championship win over Kildare in 5 attempts since 2005. Hard to see that changing…..
    • Hard to imagine Dublin not being able to handle all the Mayo can throw at them
    • Another very evenly matched game between Meath and Monaghan, who between them, have won 4 of their last 22 games. Monaghan's form does look slightly better though, in their 2nd ever championship meeting
    • Eight previous league and championship meetings between Kerry and Louth and the record is 4:4; Kerry are operating a different level though and should account for Louth relatively comfortably
    • Connacht champions meet the almost Ulster champions….very little between them and history points to another close game



  • Registered Users Posts: 44 colml cule


    This is true, and I am not necessarily saying this it as a bad thing. All counties would rather be competing in Sam than not. There of course has to be strong teams and weak teams, as is the nature of sport.

    I agree with this also, and I would be of the opinion that weaker teams need to be playing teams stronger than them in order to improve.

    My point about Westmeath is just specifically in regard to these rankings. If they were in the tailteann they would most likely be winning games and gaining ranking points, but alas there are no points to be gained for playing at a higher level and losing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    But presumably no change, or very little change, if teams are predicted to draw and do draw.



  • Registered Users Posts: 988 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    If 2 teams were on identical rating points, and played out a draw at a neutral venue, then yes, there would be no rating points exchanged.

    The rating points exchanged are independent of the prediction model, which uses more than the rating difference to make predictions, the record of the 2 teams involved is also taken into account.

    So based on the 2 draws at the weekend, we could expect the lower rated team to take something from the higher rated team, and the rating points exchanged will be greater when the initial rating difference is greater (i.e. Mayo will gain more for drawing with Dublin than Galway will for drawing with Armagh).



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