Football ranking table

28064212

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121716224#Comment_121716224

It's a mathematical model, it's not an opinion. The "why" is set out in the opening post (and the linked post to the hurling rankings).

theoneeyedman

I'd suggest you read the way the ranking works

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121708828#Comment_121708828

Perhaps Kieran McGeeney read your post.

laoisman11

Updated ranking table below after the second round of games, with Fermanagh, Laois and Kerry picking up points at the expense of Kildare, Wexford and Monaghan. Kerry regain top spot following a 9-month hiatus.

Kevhog1988

hard knock Kildare being at 16... things are going downhill fast!

Charles Babbage

So following the earlier discussion, a 12 point win by Armagh over Meath, rather than a 5.3 prediction, was not enough to affect either team. Kildare are now so low that Armagh beating them would also likely not affect either team's position. The Armagh - Donegal game might move positions a bit, but Donegal won't gain much from playing Meath or Kildare.

laoisman11

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121734939#Comment_121734939

Sorry, meant to reply to you before on this point - the winning margin vs what was predicted doesn't have an impact on the rating exchange. The rating exchange is solely based on the rating difference between the 2 teams (taking home advantage into account which adds 3 rating points to the home team) up to a maximum of 15 rating points difference, a bonus for a >5 point win, and a bonus for the championship.

To take the 2 examples you give:

Kildare (80+0=80; not at home, so no home advantage) vs Armagh 99.1, there is more than 15 rating points between them so no rating points to be exchanged should Armagh win. If Kildare win, they will get the maximum (3 rating points) and if they win by 5 or more, 4.5 rating points.

Were Armagh to play Donegal in Armagh based on today's ratings, it would be 99.1+3=102.1 vs 91.2, and so approx. 0.5 rating points for Armagh were they to win, and approx 0.75 rating points if they were to win by 5 or more. A Donegal win would gain approx 2 rating points, and approx. 3 if they win by 5 or more.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's game:

laoisman11

Updated table below following last weekend's games:

• Big gains for Cavan (2.6 rating points) while Galway, Down and Leitrim all picked up 2 rating points
• Kildare fall to 18th, their lowest since June 2018
• Longford, despite beating Waterford, were overtaken by Leitrim, and find themselves in 30th - their lowest since June 2010

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games:

Charles Babbage

Cork -6 is 9/2 on Boylesports, if anyone fancies a bet and Armagh -3 against Donegal is 11/4, so model suggests that would be good bet.

Not for me though.

laoisman11

Only 2 "big" wins last weekend, and both were bonus-point wins in Division 1, with both Roscommon and Dublin picking up more than 2 rating points.

Dublin and Kerry switch places between 1st and 3rd

Carlow hit their highest ranking since January 2020

laoisman11

Prediction model output for the 5th round of games:

Cavan_King

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121835471#Comment_121835471

Cavan Meath correct with the draw.

laoisman11

Ranking table update after last weekend's games below.

Wexford (+3 rating points, +2 ranking places) and Galway (+2.5 rating points, +1 ranking place) were the big winners.

laoisman11

Prediction model outputs for this weekend's round of games:

laoisman11

Updated ranking table following the penultimate round of the 2024 NFL:

The only teams to gain more than 2 rating points were Leitrim, who picked up 3 rating points following a fine away win against Laois, and Longford who had a bonus-point win over Carlow, and gained 2 rating points.

dr.kenneth noisewater

Just noticed that Laois in Division 4 are ahead of Fermanagh in Division 2 which seems odd but both looking likely to face each other in division 3 next year

dxhound2005

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121911809#Comment_121911809

I pointed that out in post #1288, before the League started. Fermanagh were 25 then, and Laois 21.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this wekend - many of them to be taken with a huge pinch of salt, because I only count 3 games where both teams have something to play for (I don't believe that any of the Division 1 sides (with the possible exception of Derry) actually want to go further in the league).

CrabRevolution

Are Donegal simply not gaining many points from their total dominance (along with Armagh) of Div 2?

I'd be pleasantly surprised if Meath finished only 3 points behind in Ballybofey tomorrow, as the model predicts.

soap1978

Donegal have nothing to play for and you would be thinking resting lads with league final and championship around the corner

CrabRevolution

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121931238#Comment_121931238

The model doesn't account for that though; the 3 point prediction is based on both sides fielding their strongest team and playing to the best of their abilities.

The 8 point beating we ended up getting last night was more in line with what I was expecting.

laoisman11

Ranking table update - only the 4 finals to go and then the league can be reviewed.

Two teams gained 3 rating points this weekend, beating their so-called superiors. Fermanagh's last-ditch attempt at avoiding relegation might have been expected given that Cavan had nothing to play for, but Westmeath's big loss to Sligo, where they might have lost out on promotion if Clare had beaten Down, might be concerning for them as they head in to a league final.

BENDYBINN

Given the hiding Tyrone took yesterday it’s strange that they have overtaken Galway…..or have i missed something?

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121936555#Comment_121936555

As Dublin were much more highly rated than Tyrone then they were expected to beat them and the margin does not count.

At this point, next year's Div 1 teams as 1-8, with two groups: Dublin, Derry and Kerry would seem to be the main contenders for Sam, and Mayo, Armagh, Tyrone, Galway and Donegal possibly capable of beating one of the big three on the day, but not likely to win everything. There is a bigger gap between Kerry and Mayo than between Mayo and Donegal. This may be narrowed or might widen a bit depending in the outcome of the Div 2 final.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for the four league finals - some great games to look forward to!

laoisman11

Ranking table update after conclusion of the 2024 NFL

Charles Babbage

Fairly good measure of the teams, the last 12 in Sam will include 1-11 and one between 12-16 although Down probably won't be involved. One of the top 3 will win.

Derry may rise in the early stages of championship, they can get some points for beating Donegal/Tyrone/Armagh who are no more than 6 places below them, whereas Dublin will probably get nothing until the round robin as the other Leinster teams are so low.

laoisman11

An entertaining league overall, with some unexpected outcomes (Cavan and Kildare's final places in Div 2; Leitrim making the Div 4 final), and with the top 3 really stepping out from the pack.

Big winners:

• Jimmy's winning matches - unbeaten in Div 2 and with a league title to show for it, Donegal gained 8.6 rating points and move up a massive 8 ranking places since the start of the league - mind you, they were coming from a low place
• Despite being relegated from Div 2, Fermanagh still picked up 7.1 rating points after 2 wins and a draw against opposition that were ranked much higher than them
• With 5 wins in Div 4, Leitrim added 5.1 rating points to their worth
• Derry's successful Div 1 campaign gains them 4.6 rating points and they move into 2nd - can they match Dublin when the championship heat comes on?
• Honorable mentions to Sligo, Down and Cavan who both increased their ratings by more than 2.5 points

Big losers:

• A disastrous Div 2 league campaign for Kildare resulted in a loss of 8.5 rating points and 6 ranking places
• Monaghan bowed out of Div 1, giving up 6.5 rating points and 3 ranking places
• Unable to beat either London or Waterford, Tipperary gave up 5 rating points and have fell a long way from when they were All-Ireland semi-finalists in 2020
• Dishonorable mentions to Cork, Armagh, Antrim and Carlow who all lost more than 3 rating points