Football ranking table
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Updated ranking table below following last weekend's games:
- A sensational win for Monaghan results in a gain of 4.2 rating points and effectively swapping positions with Tyrone in the ranking table
- No rating points exchanged in the Derry vs Fermanagh game due to the gulf in rating points between the sides
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With 10 games on the menu last weekend, there was sure to be major movement in the ranking table:
- Down gained 3 places in the rankings and took 4.2 rating points from Donegal, dropping Donegal to their lowest rank since February 2011
- Offaly's win over Meath gained them 3.8 rating points, relegating Meath to the Tailteann Cup, and to 19th place, their lowest since June '18
- The other big winner was Galway, who regain no. 1 place in the table after a fine win over Roscommon
- Final mention to Clare, who moved to 10th place, their highest since March 2017
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It feels like feast or famine with these alternating weekends of game overload/little to look forward to......only 4 games this weekend. The prediction model output is below.
I will try to attach the full output as a HTML file in a seperate post, hopefully it will work!
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- A huge win for Derry moves them up to 2nd place, and if they can take Armagh in the Ulster final, they look likely to top the ranking table!
- Louth's extra-time win over Offaly moves them up to 10th, their highest since June 2013
- Armagh had a small gain following a big win over Down
- No rating points were exchanged after the Dublin-Kildare game
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Another famine weekend with only 2 games, and going by the prediction model, there won't be much intrigue - Galway and Kerry are projected to win big. Nevertheless, on looking at the long-term trends (PDF attached), both Sligo and Clare have a habit of making things sticky for Galway and Kerry, respectively, so these finals may remain competitive for a longer stretch than expected.
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Prediction model output attached, and shortened table below, for this coming weekend's games 10 games. A few first time meetings (Meath vs Tipp; Down vs Waterford) and this will be the 2nd ever meeting of Cavan and Laois, the previous dating to 1936.
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I'm away on holidays this evening, and won't open this computer again until Sunday 28th, so the best I can do is put up prediction model output for the 4 games of the weekend of the 20th/21st of the teams that will not have played between now and then (there isn't any point in doing predictions for the TC games that weekend, as their ratings would have changed based on results of this coming weekend).
I will update the ranking table when I'm back.
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Three weekend's worth of changes combined into the one table below!
The major changes:
- Bonus point victories at home to Leitrim and away to Wexford result in Antrim gaining 6.6 rating points
- Mayo jump 4 places to 2nd following a big win over Kerry; meanwhile, Kerry drop (temporarily?) to 6th, their lowest since August 2018
- Donegal's big win over Clare gains them 4.5 rating points
- A home loss to Carlow and a big away defeat to Longford cost Wicklow 9.1 rating points and 7 ranking places
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A record 16 games of championship action this weekend, there are sure to be major changes in the ranking table by Sunday evening.
Attached is the 65-page detailed prediction report, the main things that I pull from it:
- Kerry's form has been poor for the last while, and Cork alternate between making life difficult and easy for them. One point win for Cork or 10 point win for Kerry?
- Kildare have performed well against Dublin in their 2 meetings this year - can they make further progress?
- Tyrone will want to make up for last year's championship loss to Armagh
- Waterford appear to have better form than Tipp, and could create a shock here
- Offaly's form has dipped a lot in the last few months, Cavan could rack up a score
- London's last 2 results hint that their game with Laois might be much tighter than many expect
- First championship meeting since 1950 for Mayo and Louth (for those into omens)
- Have Donegal turned their season around? And will Derry's decline in form continue?
- Antrim have been going well of late, they might keep it going against Fermanagh
Prediction model output below:
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