Football ranking table
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Plenty of changes after the bumper weekend:
- Wicklow were the big, big winners, gaining the maximum 9 rating points for their bonus point win over Limerick - but it wasn't enough to avoid elimination from the Tailteann Cup
- Five rating points were obtained by Antrim following an excellent bonus point win over Fermanagh
- Carlow took 4 rating points with a surprising win over Longford
- Tyrone, Meath and London all picked up 3 or more rating points
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Only 4 games on the cards this weekend, and the prediction model is going for 4 home wins (see table below).
Deeper analyses shows that if a shock is to be had, then Offaly are vulnerable, performing poorly in 6 of their last 7 games, whereas Wexford have overperformed in 2 of their last 3 games.
(For some reason, my code does not like New York, or more likely, the fact that New York has not previously played against other teams. I've left the Carlow-NY game out of the PDF output)
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The last big weekend of games, with 12 games lined up.
- Monaghan have performed 5-8 points better than expected against Donegal in their 3 previous games; whether that is a reflection of Donegal's recent demise, or some advantage that Monaghan hold, remains to be seen
- A first-ever meeting for Laois and Limerick in the championship, 2 teams whose form varies wildly
- Cavan look like they will continue their good run of form, and could run up a big score against Down
- Both Antrim and Carlow have been performing well in this championship, but Antrim's superior rating should indicate that they are better placed to win
- Kerry have underperformed in their last 2 games; I would expect a backlash against Louth (interesting to see that Louth hold the upper hand against Kerry over league and championship: played 7, won 4, lost 3)
- Westmeath managed to keep it tight against Armagh and Galway, can do they the same against Tyrone?
- Detailed prediction output attached; full table below
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What a weekend of shocks! Six of 12 results were different to what the prediction model went for, and the experts in the SFC pools thread didn't do so much better either!
- The major news is that due to Galway's loss and dropping 4.9 rating points to Armagh, Derry now find themselves in the number one ranking position for the first time since June 2000; Armagh climb an incredible 6 places in a highly congested top-of-table
- In terms of rating points gain, Cork were the biggest winers, gaining 5.7 rating points from Mayo
- Kildare took 5.4 rating points from Roscommon, while Donegal and Down increased their worth by 4.9 and 4.8 rating points, respectively
Teams appear to be clustering into 2 major groups, the top 6 who are around 100 rating points (and I'm including Mayo in that) and a 2nd group of 6 teams around the 92 rating point mark. Hard to know if any team from the 2nd group could seriously challenge for Sam, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take a major scalp. In any case, this is one of the most open championships for many years
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Almost!
- Donegal's recent upturn in form pushes them into a strong position against Tyrone, who have performed more or less as expected (Westmeath game excluded); home advantage might swing it for them
- Cork have also been performing above average, but Roscommon historically perform well against them
- Both Galway and Mayo have been on a downward trend these last few games and given previous results, this will be a tight, low-scoring game
- Roscommon and Monaghan are pretty erratic; the prediction model is calling a drawn game
- Meath and Antrim are coming into their semi-final with 4 good wins under their belts and look pretty evenly matched
- There are 10 rating points difference between Down and Laois, and that is by far the largest spread across the 6 games this weekend; Laois have rode their luck in their last 2 games, and I can only see Down maintaining their 100% record against Laois
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Four extremely tight games the weekend gone by, and the less said about the one that wasn't at all tight, the better 😫
Nothing between the top 6 teams at this stage, and Monaghan and Cork are not too far behind.
Nothing either between the Tailteann Cup finalists, some good games to look forward to, starting this weekend!
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Four pretty close games to be looked forward to this weekend, if the prediction model has it right.
A deeper look at past trends shows that:
- Monaghan have made life difficult for Armagh over their last 3 meetings
- It's 4 wins apiece for Kerry and Tyrone following previous championship meetings, and 12 wins apiece from league games. And Kerry have lost 4 of their last 5 meetings with Tyrone
- Dublin have run up big scores against weak opposition but not when faced with more serious challenges; Mayo will bring a serious challenge and hope to extend their 2-game winning streak against the Dubs
- Derry's form has slipped significantly since the early rounds in Ulster, while Cork seem a team on the up, with the odd hiccup (Louth, Clare). Revenge for '93?
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- Down are coming off 2 big wins where they greatly exceeded expectations, and that seems to be a reflection of their style of play - if they get on top, they really get on top. Meath performed well against them in the group game, but at that stage, Down had already qualified. Perhaps the model is looking too much at history, but it's hard to see Meath win this
- With only 2 losses in their last 20 games, and highly convincing results in their last 3 games, Dublin seem to be peaking at the right time. However, a closer look at games between these 2 teams shows that Monaghan have overperformed against Dublin in 7 of their last 8 games, stretching back to 2015. Monaghan have also beaten Dublin 3 times in that period, and I'm not sure if any other team has had that much success. The model is still going for a Dublin win but it could be tighter than most think
- The main difference between Kerry and Derry is consistency of performance - Kerry's form fluctated wildly between the loss to Mayo and the win over Louth, whereas Derry keep things more consistent. Kerry have also underperformed in their last 7 games against Derry, although these games date from 2008 to 2015, the date of their last previous (NFL) meeting
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That time of the year again to look back and see how our team did in 2023....
Biggest winners
- Laois, surprisingly (to me at least), are the biggest winners of 2023, with 10.9 rating points and 9 places ranking places gained; all this achieved via a trip to the semi-finals of the Tailteann Cup and 5 out of 7 wins in Div 4
- With 9.1 rating points improvement, and 5 ranking places gained, Antrim escaped relegation in Division 3 and almost made the Tailteann Cup final
- Louth picked up 8.8 rating points and 4 ranking places, with a more than solid Division 2 campaign and a Leinster final appearance
- Dublin were not far behind, the re-capture of Sam Maguire, plus a Division 2 title, takes them back to top of the charts, and added 8.7 rating points and 4 ranking places to their worth
- Honorable mentions to Down, Sligo and Cork, who all gained more than 7 rating points
Biggest losers
- Limerick were by far the biggest losers in 2023, dropping 14.4 rating points and 10 ranking places. Division 2 proved too much, and 2 wins from 4 games in the Tailteann Cup capped off a bad season
- With 10.7 rating points and 8 ranking places lost, Leitrim will want to forget 2023 - losing to New York, and then 0 from 3 in the Tailteann Cup was a poor return
- Kerry fell from grace after last year's highs, losing 8.8 rating points and just one ranking place to finish the year in 2nd place
- Despite a Connacht championship title, Galway will look back with regret at 2023, with Mayo putting end to their Division 1 final and All-Ireland championship ambitions
- (Dis)honorable mentions to Fermanagh, Westmeath, Donegal and Clare who all lost more than 5 rating points
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