Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

aloooof · 19-04-2024 09:09AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Brilliant post, jaco, very interesting to get the Ulster perspective to this level.

19-04-2024 09:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036772#Comment_122036772

It's good data to have, thanks for pulling together - and in a weird way it's almost reflective of the relative gap between the teams at various points.

But as others have said - there is very little to be gained by consistently pointing out the disparity. Nobody queries this.

But it's purely down to player production. The bar is unquestionably higher now to get to a CC - guys like Gavin Coombes or James Hume might have picked up 10-20 caps in the 2000's, but Ireland are so much better relatively now, and so are the players they're competing with to get CCs.

I can't understand the griping though around a system though that simply allows Leinster to retain the players they produce. The only remedy for this is for the other provinces to produce players worthy of winning a place in the Irish team and then in time earning a CC (just like Jack Crowley).

To me - there seems to be two different things though sought by fans on this forum - some want the IRFU to fund/permit significant relaxation of the NIQ rules to allow Munster & Ulster sign a greater number of NIQs in an effort to close the gap to Leinster in the first team right now. This would be the short term and incredibly short-sighted solution that would actually exacerbate the current situation.

The only solution that remedies the current situation is continued investment in facilities, coaching and talent identification in underage pathways, but the unfortunate thing is it's not a short term fix. It might take years to catch up.

phog · 19-04-2024 09:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Brilliant post

Again, quite a surprising number of N.I. children attend. It is easy to ignore the persistent exodus of a part of the population over the last 25 years or so. If you were a parent of an 18-year-old school-leaver in N.I. and the son or daughter goes to University in G.B. you know they aren't coming back.

This is replicated across most counties in Ireland, some move to Dublin, the rest move abroad.

I look at the school classes that my kids went to, there's few enough of them living locally.

aloooof · 19-04-2024 09:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037331#Comment_122037331

But as others have said - there is very little to be gained by consistently pointing out the disparity. Nobody queries this.

To be fair, I was replying to a post where someone had questioned the disparity; or, at least, compared it to Munster in the 00's. They're not comparable, the distribution from next season is the, singular, significant outlier since CC's were introduced.

I can't understand the griping though around a system though that simply allows Leinster to retain the players they produce.

I don't think anyone is saying Leinster shouldn't be allowed retain the players they produce. Certainly the centrally contract players, obviously. But this is too simplistic.

The "griping" is because the mechanism that allows them to retain these players now gives them a much, much more significant advantage over the other provinces than it previously had. Surely you can understand why?

(As an aside, I can completely understand why some Leinster fans are happy with the current status. I don't agree, but I understand it).

Like I said, it's new territory. It's perfectly reasonable to question if it was ever intended to work this way. And if it wasn't 1) could it have further ramifications and 2) if so, should it be something the IRFU look at?

I've asked this above, but straight question. Do you think the imbalance in the Central Contracts is a potential issue for the IRFU that could have further ramifications?

Whiff of Cordite put this as follows:

I think the law of unintended consequences have played out and the system has landed in a place it was never supposed or expected to where it now risks perpetuating the superiority of the strongest team.

I think that's a completely fair comment and is pretty much exactly what I've been saying.

19-04-2024 09:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037333#Comment_122037333

Well, let's let the actual science speak to this point rather than your local survey of your kid's classes:

From the 2016 census to the 2022 census the Irish population grew by just over 361k people, c. 8%. Every county in the country experienced population growth (first time this happened in the history of the State).

While inward migration was certainly a factor (c. 53% of the population growth), we also have significant natural population growth (360k births over the period versus 189k deaths), and have a fertility rate that is the fourth highest in Europe.

While growth in Dublin City is strong at c. 6.1% over the period, growth in Limerick is very comparable at 5.4% over the same period (Cork County is 8.1% and Cork City 5.4%).

There are quite different dynamics at play in Northern Ireland, where while the population was also growing at the 2021 census, it is quite clear there are demographic shifts happening there.

ionadnapóca · 19-04-2024 09:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037127#Comment_122037127

Very informative post.

Ulster finished 2nd to Leinster in the normal table in 19 / 20, 2nd in 20 / 21, 2nd in 21 / 22 and 2nd in 22 / 23. Other teams would like that level of failure. I assume there is prize money for doing so. They are playing like crap this year without doubt.

Agreed and I've said before McFarland (and the coaches) did well to right the ship considering that Ulster were, as they are now again, a basket case. But when you look at the caliber of player they had, and have had, they should NOT be in in this state. Again! They have underperformed.

I have also believed for a long time that the committee system in Ulster is helping the failure to thrive as we might expect. Additionally, the Academy has failed year-on-year to further the talents of seemingly promising players.

Would be very interested to hear more about this.

The £900,000 hit over the La Rochelle debacle was almost the straw that broke Ulster's back.

Definitely. And add in the subsequent embarrassing performances from the players the IRFU have had to go into Ulster and remove the CEO (I think that's also the 2nd time) and The Head Coach because of the complete balls they were making of it. They have had to pay them off. With IRFU money.

IRFU have had to parachute in their U-20 coach and the national team scrummaging coach to take over.

Massive decisions ahead for Kevin Potts and David Humphreys. I hope Humphreys is going to be involved in recruiting.

19-04-2024 10:00AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037402#Comment_122037402

No, I don't think it ever was intended to end up like this.

And, fwiw, while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost, and every single Irish fan would welcome a scenario where the Irish team is not so reliant on Leinster.

The issue I see with this though is that if the IRFU look at this and decide to take action - current fans of Munster and Ulster mightn't like the solution.

I know they're trying to strike a balance between keeping the provinces competitive enough now to keep fans coming in the door while simultaneously encouraging the development of young players, but the answer can't always be more NIQs who take up more game time, or simply raid the Leinster squad depth whenever there is a shortfall.

Some of this will wash out over time I do believe, because I think Munster's production of players (and willingness to back and trust young players) has improved significantly in recent years, but ultimately the seeds of the current CC situation were sown a long time ago, and will take a couple of years to re-balance.

jacothelad · 19-04-2024 10:16AM

With regard to the Central Contracts issue, in most walks of life, those that are the most talented or most successful usually get the most reward. Rewards in sport are usually the consequence of talent plus hard work. Being a professional rugby player demands hard, hard work so the rewards should be commensurate with the combination of talent and effort. Talent on its own is not enough of course. Dedication and coaching are also vital. The most talented (apparently) players are at Leinster. We will never know if a player from one of the other sides would be up there if they were in the Leinster system rather than say, Ulster's. Would James Hume or Robert Baloucoune be on the list if they were in Dublin rather than Belfast? I suspect they might. Would Stockdale have had his flaws eradicated rather than expanded by being with Lancaster……? I think he might. I also suspect that a few of Ulster's squad wouldn't have made it out of Leinster's Academy and that more than a few who disappeared without trace in Ulster's would have graduated to senior status via Leinster's. These are the things that I observe.

I have been playing and then watching rugby since the 1950s Essentially it hasn't changed as much as many think. It is still a game for warriors. If you don't have that warrior spirit then it will be hard to make a mark. However, having that alone is not enough. Little Lowry at Ulster has it in spades but he hasn't got the rest of the equation to be effective despite his abilities.

In seasons past, quite often the difference between Leinster and Ulster was the desire of Leinster players to simply win no matter what…and BOD of course.

The Central Deals aren't given out like smarties for being a good boy. I'm not sure why there is such a reaction to them. If we didn't have them, these guys would still be the best paid. The IRFU owns the teams. They do not "subsidise" them. Someone above declared that the IRFU subsidised Ulster. No they do not. They pay for the running of each Provincial side, own each outright and in the end carry the can when things go wrong as well as getting the kudos when things go right. Ulster didn't 'subsidise' the IRFU by donating a brand new 20,000 seat stadium to the property portfolio. If anything, I hope the IRFU take a greater hand in the running at Ulster. There was a time when Ulster had it right. Too many management appointments have been just wrong. When the heads are full of ballix the body isn't much use.

twinytwo · 19-04-2024 10:21AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037331#Comment_122037331

I think it all comes down to money, no?(and to a certain extent population). This is reason why, i do not think any of the other 3 provinces will ever close the gap on Leinster.

A lot of the private rugby schools are in Leinster - i think a huge % of the current pros playing in Ireland have come from Blackrock and possibly St Marys? (might have the wrong school). I have no figures to prove it, but i would suspect that the money in schools rugby in Leinster is probably more than the other provinces combined.

The schools feed the academies, which feed the provinces.

Is this the fault of Leinster, no. But its harsh to expect the other provinces to be able to match this and while I wouldn't argue against anyone currently on a CC - something has to change.

aloooof · 19-04-2024 10:25AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

And, fwiw, while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost, and every single Irish fan would welcome a scenario where the Irish team is not so reliant on Leinster.

I don't think you can speak for everyone here. And this touches on one of the ramifications I was talking about.

If the trajectory of Leinster's dominance continues, and the system unintendedly perpetuates that dominance, will fans of the other provinces start to become more disenfranchised? Some would argue that's happened already.

We had 16 Leinster players in the Ireland 23 during the 6 Nations. Now look at the age profile of the 3 Centrally Contracted players not at Leinster; Aki 34, Beirne 32 and Henderson 32. We also have POM, 34 coming off a CC.

It's not inconceivable we could see a 23 with say ~20 Leinster players in the 23. At what point do fans stop seeing themselves as "fans of the Irish team first and foremost" and starting seeing it as "Leinster in green"? I daresay some feel that way already.

And if increasing numbers of fans start to feel that way, that in turn could have further unintended consequences for the health of rugby within those provinces.

Not to go all "inception" here, but I honestly don't understand how you don't understand the "griping".

Former Former Former · 19-04-2024 10:28AM

Central contracts were only intended to do one thing - keep the best players in Ireland.

This is going back to the late 90/early 00s when there were real issues about keeping players here. With the subsequent success of the provinces and the thriving of the pro game, this is now less of an issue, and CCs are now essentially an accounting exercise.

On that basis - there is simply no system you can put in place where you pay international players what they are worth without Leinster getting the lion's share of that money. You could give out another ten CCs, and probably five or six would go to Leinster players. You could revert to everyone being on a provincial contract, but again, unless you're paying some guys less than they're worth and others more than they're worth, Leinster come out on top.

What people are asking for - even if no has actually used these words - is a quota of CCs per province, regardless of whether players at those provinces are actually good enough to merit one.

We can certainly do that, but it absolutely does not fix the underlying issues.

Red Silurian · 19-04-2024 10:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

The issue I see with this though is that if the IRFU look at this and decide to take action - current fans of Munster and Ulster mightn't like the solution.

Depends on what the solution would be I think. They could take the 12 Central contracts and have 3 for each province, meaning Leinster would effectively lose 6 players to the other provinces. As a Munster fan I'd see this as a bad idea. Primarily because you need players to want to play for a particular team and not be forcing them into anything if we want to get the best out of them. Also why would anybody join the academies of the other 3 provinces if some Leinster player is only going to get priority

In the short term I think it should be a condition that Centrally Contracted players play every inter-provincial game in the regular URC season. In the short term this means Leinster will absolutely crush the other 3, and I accept that. In the long term it means provincial players will be regularly playing the best of the Irish teams and will probably learn more than they would playing second string sides

Former Former Former · 19-04-2024 10:38AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037503#Comment_122037503

while every fan of every team wants to see their players earn international caps etc., we're all fans of the Irish team first and foremost

Based on the day-in day-out criticism of Ireland and the Ireland coaches on this forum, this is demonstrably false - and all this at a time when we have never been more successful.

Large numbers of posters here are either ambivalent towards Ireland or actively want them to fail. Only a few have actually said this, but it is absolutely the case for a significantly larger number.

ionadnapóca · 19-04-2024 10:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122036739#Comment_122036739

D'Orce cant stand Nucifora.

and still cant finish sentences properly "But…..I….think…………..it….is…..a…………….systematic…problem….in………Irish rugby."

I persevered and listened to the end.

Yes he still cant stand Nucifora (prob after been laughed out of a press conference by Nucifora in 2000)

And he didn't even offer a suggestion of what should change with the Central Contracts.

"Should 32 year old JGP get a central contract?"

"Yes 100%"

I agree. Doesn't everyone?

His mangled and regurgitated cake analogy. Good God!

"Is the lack of investment in the club game a provincial responsibility or an IRFU responsibility?"

"Ah listen….I dont……I dont know."

Empty head

His points are very interesting.

Maybe I missed something? Genuine Qs. The blood coming from my ears prob blocked it out.

Finochet · 19-04-2024 10:49AM

Constructive, considered and well thought out post. Much food for thought.

Hard not to think that a downward spiral is very difficult to reverse

19-04-2024 10:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037597#Comment_122037597

I had pulled stats on this previously that I think showed just over 20% of all pro players in the country (incl academies) had come through two schools - Blackrock & St Michael's. I wouldn't imagine this has changed massively as last year's Leinster Academy intake of 8 players was split 4 Blackrock, 3 St Michael's and 1 Newbridge.

That can't be just population though. While Blackrock is a big school (it's where I went to school), at c. 1,100 students, it's not so big as to justify it's disproportional production of rugby players. There is boarding, but it's not a massive component (around 120 boarders or so I think), and while they do get some people from further afield who go there for rugby purposes (Joey Carbery and Jeremy Loughman both from Athy as prime examples of guys who went for senior cycle), these guys are very much the exception.

In reality - the bulk of players produced are from a relatively short locale near the school. It's obviously an area of a good sized population, and it definitely tends towards a wealthier socio-economic background, and there is obviously a very strong and deep rooted rugby culture, but it's still illogical just how many great international quality rugby players come from there.

There isn't something in the water there - it's just a combination of a strong and competitive rugby culture, access to players, very good facilities and very good coaching. That model has to be replicable to some extent elsewhere.

19-04-2024 11:16AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037620#Comment_122037620

Yeah, everything you'd outlined is absolutely a possibility - but the target of the griping is entirely misdirected.

This discussion is all about Leinster like Leinster is the problem, when the problem is in Munster & Ulster. That's the point that needs to be acknowledged here.

This discussion has been sparked this week across multiple fora and other platforms because of the announcement of other CCs for Leinster and the signing of an NIQ (which is utterly irrelevant to this topic), when the roots of the issue have been apparent for some time.

Ultimately the IRFU are responsible for the game across the whole country, but in practical terms this is cascaded down to local branches to manage at this level, and those are the people who haven't pulled their weight here.

Fans might start to get annoyed with it - but to me that's a stupid and irrational response. The best players, by and large, are picked for the national team. We keep going around in circles here, but ultimately the only solution here is for Munster and Ulster to significantly improve their player production.

19-04-2024 11:22AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037654#Comment_122037654

I can't see how you think your second point there fundamentally improves anything. The selection of CC players (or players subject to the Player Management protocols, likely the same thing) already comes with a lot of conditions attached. This would be an unnecessary and likely impractical additional one to that.

Leinster already have a very strong track record against the provinces in interpros for the past decade or so, and attendances at these games aren't an issue - so don't see how this improves things.

Forcing Leinster centrally contracted players to move to other provinces would be a retrograde step. It doesn't improve Ireland - just spreads our playing base out more. The players don't want it and wouldn't like it, it would dilute provincial rivalries and it would actually just impede the ability of all provinces to succeed. We'd then have four decent provinces, none of which would likely be capable of winning in Europe (and bringing in the associated revenue those home knock outs etc bring to the IRFU pot).

I've said it about 50 times now - but the only solution is the other provinces improving their player production, but that's not a short term fix.

19-04-2024 11:27AM

I can understand the argument that with the number of CCs and international players, Leinster should not be signing 2 or 3 NIQs. But beyond that I'm not sure what other changes people want

aloooof · 19-04-2024 11:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037849#Comment_122037849

I've repeatedly said the system, tho unintended, is the problem.

I've repeatedly acknowledged the problems in Munster & Ulster.

If Leinster can only afford the NIQ signing because of the new imbalance of central contracts, that absolutely is relevant.

Fwiw, I typed all of the above before I got to this:

Fans might start to get annoyed with it - but to me that's a stupid and irrational response.

Why would anyone bother engaging further…

19-04-2024 11:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037895#Comment_122037895

I'm not calling your engagement with this a stupid and irrational response - I'm referring to "fans" who are claiming they don't support the Irish team because it doesn't have enough players from their province in it stupid and irrational, and I stand by that.

It's not the case that Leinster can only afford the NIQ signing because of the imbalance of CCs - Leinster generate a lot of revenue and have previously had external investment.

They've had expensive NIQs previously, including at times when they had far fewer CCs, so it absolutely isn't the case to say that they can only afford Jordie Barrett now because the CCs.

aloooof · 19-04-2024 11:40AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037932#Comment_122037932

You're dismissing people who have a difference of opinion to you as "fans" and calling them "stupid and irrational". It's fair to say we're not going to agree on that. I don't agree with that take either, but I'm not going to belittle them.

Fwiw, I don't think it's at all accurate to say Leinster had expensive NIQ singings previously to the stature / marquee-nature that they will have next season.

19-04-2024 11:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122037963#Comment_122037963

Well really only Jordie Barrett is the marquee signing next year - and we already know he actively sought out this move, and turned down more money elsewhere to facilitate it. Barrett likely costs less all in than the guy he's replacing when you compare the tenor of the deals etc.

RG Snyman wanted to remain in Ireland, and given how much gametime he's missed in the past 5 years or so, it's almost impossible to think of him as a top tier NIQ at this point to me.

I would argue that Brad Thorn and Rocky Elsom were signings of a similar stature to Barrett. Thorn was arguably the best second row in the world at the time.

I'm not dismissing those people simply because they have a difference of opinion with me.

I'm dismissing anyone, from any province, who turns around and says they don't / won't support Ireland simply because there aren't enough of their favourite players on the team as irrational, short sighted and childish. Entirely your choice to agree with that or not.

phog · 19-04-2024 11:55AM

So fans that have a different opinion to another poster, hate Andy Farrell, hate Ireland or are stupid and irrational.

Way to go to have a discussion in this place

aloooof · 19-04-2024 11:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122038019#Comment_122038019

Here's the point; Leinster didn't have Thorn and Elsom at the same time. (And fwiw, at the time Elsom signed, I don't think he was considered to be at the level that Barrett and Snyman are today).

I suggest we leave it at that, FTD - I can understand your point of view, but you can't understand mine - and move on.

custom_build · 19-04-2024 12:00PM

"Fwiw, I don't think it's at all accurate to say Leinster had expensive NIQ singings previously to the stature / marquee-nature that they will have next season."

Perhaps not, but Munster and Ulster have a legacy of these marquee signings. Which would disprove your CC slant.

19-04-2024 12:00PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122038046#Comment_122038046

What's not constructive to discussion is your little "thinking out loud" pieces like this, which while not quoting someone are clearly aimed at them. If you have something to say, then say it.

I quite clearly said I'm not criticising anyone for having a different opinion to me, that's entirely their prerogative. But it's entirely my prerogative to say I have zero respect for any so called Irish fan who is claiming they don't support Ireland just because their favourite players aren't getting picked.

You are free to disagree with that if you want to.

19-04-2024 12:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122038061#Comment_122038061

It's all well and good claiming I'm not understanding your viewpoint, but it's not fair or accurate. I've engaged with you, and acknowledged the points you're making that unquestionably the disparity exists, and I'm agreeing that I don't think the current situation is desirable for the IRFU.

Beyond that though, you're not proposing anything resembling an alternative approach or a solution, you're just highlighting the same issue over and over again.

Do you accept the point that problem here is primarily of Ulster Rugby and Munster Rugby's making?

aloooof · 19-04-2024 12:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122038094#Comment_122038094

Claiming? You literally said as much:

I can't understand the griping though around a system though that simply allows Leinster to retain the players they produce.

19-04-2024 12:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122038111#Comment_122038111

Yeah, well obviously we don't agree on every aspect of this.

As others have pointed out - one way or another, that cohort of players are going to be amongst the highest paid players in the country. The CCs are effectively an accounting exercise and whatever way you dress it up, Leinster are going to continue to have the highest wage bill of the four provinces if Leinster continue to produce the best players and have the bulk of the international squad.

You're acting like we just woke up Monday morning and found ourselves in this situation, rather than acknowledging that Munster & Ulster have been sleepwalking towards this very scenario for around 15 years now.

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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