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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,007 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Ive been saying it for ages.

    Anger got them to ride an anti-establishment, anti-political populist wave from 2020-2023. It worked for them then.

    But now, this close to an election, people want to see solutions, hope, competency, and credibility and most of all some humanity.
    They are getting none of that, and the polls are reflective of it.

    Maybe they cannot deliver that, but if they can't they will get a bit of a shock come election day. We will be hearing about 'powerswaps' and similar lame excuses for another 5 years, instead of doing some inward reflection.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Will the 'corner turned' be enough. That as they say, remains to be seen.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,007 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Perhaps, and the electorate will decide.

    But again to go back to the point, SF are saying that the government are 'out of ideas', when this is not the case, given that a corner has been turned when it comes to housing. Maybe SF should acknowledge that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They are out of ideas capable of 'turning the corner' enough. Fiddling while Rome burns etc.
    That is one of the fault lines the GE will be fought on, remains to be seen how that will pan out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The party that is out of ideas is Sinn Fein.

    When the corner has been turned and the public can see that the FF, FG and Greens government has begun to get things moving on housing, the question for Sinn Fein becomes, how can you guarantee that you will do things better and quicker? This is where Sinn Fein are failing.

    When it was a case of the government is doing nothing and we should get our chance, the absence of read ideas wasn't a problem. However, when the corner is turned, even if only slowly, the question for the opposition is much more difficult. So far, it looks like Sinn Fein have no answers.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,007 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Im not sure what this means, but it seems its just another anti-establishment populist rant about how everything is crap in Ireland.

    Not worthy of any serious discussion or debate tbh.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No, not anti-establishment. No is everything crap in Ireland, which you are fond of projecting onto posters who have a criticism to make of how the government is performing.
    Anti the current government it most certainly is though.

    They have had enough time to 'turn corners' do wheelies or whatever.

    The point again is that this will be one of the fault lines on which the GE will be fought.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    When the corner has been turned and the public can see that the FF, FG and Greens government has begun to get things moving on housing,

    What data are you basing this on? How do you know 'the public can see'? Surely we would see it in polling support for the government that has driven us around 'this corner'?

    The government are considering scrapping referendums as they don't seem able to convince the 'public' of the merit of anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Record numbers of first-time buyers, Sinn Fein support dropping, FG on the way back up, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that a corner is being turned.



  • Registered Users Posts: 89 ✭✭acceletor


    So you concede, the corner has been turned then?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    'Concede'?

    I was not claiming that there has been no progress, in fact I asked specifically, is it enough of a 'turn'.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Which is a fair question , but then it prompts the question regarding Sinn Feins continued insistence of claiming that everything is terrible , the Government is awful and nothing is going right ad infinitum.

    Whereas people listened to that message and responded positively via polling ~18 months ago , will they continue to listen to that same message now that it is less and less valid?

    Elections always have an incredible degree of recency bias in terms of how people vote - They tend not to remember that it was sh!t 2 years ago , they tend to vote based on the here and now.

    So , if in 8/9 months time when we have an Election things are going ok and momentum is visible on things like Housing etc. a message of "This Government is a failure and only we can fix it" will likely fall on deaf ears.

    What "positive" messaging can Sinn Fein bring to the table?



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Elections always have an incredible degree of recency bias in terms of how people vote - They tend not to remember that it was sh!t 2 years ago , they tend to vote based on the here and now.

    Polls tend to have 'recency bias' too and there is nothing in the data that suggests what is claimed here. That the government have 'turned a corner' on housing in the eyes of the public. When you see significant support for them then you can claim that.
    Do you dispute that housing will be a major factor in a GE? Which is the simple point I made.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The facts are the current polling puts all the parties at pretty much where they were just before the last election which is a significant change from where things were 12-18 months ago.

    Sinn Fein would appear to have lost almost all of their gains to the Independents in recent months. They need to recover that if they hope to be a serious contender for leading a Government.

    As regards Housing being a major factor at the election?

    It's always a major factor - The only question is which party will gain/lose the most from it.

    The data shows that the pace of house building is picking up and the ECB are likely to start cutting interest rates in the next month or two which will help with affordability, so the momentum around housing is looking positive right now (but as always anything could happen).

    Do Sinn Fein have a compelling Housing story for that environment?



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SF are the opposition, they have to hold the government to account and question the spin.Again I ask, is the 'turn' going to be enough.
    As FG or FF have gotten no significant bounce, as yet I don't think it is enough.

    That indeed may change and as I said earlier SF are shifting the focus back on housing and health.

    Remains to be seen.

    You will have to ask a SF member what the future strategy is, I can only judge it as it is rolled out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,329 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    "Fiddling while Rome burns" read like a dramatic line from "An Phoblacht". They liberally use such metaphors normally about "The Irish Government". "British governement". It can be amusing to read. "Good Republican's" seem adore a dramatic metaphor.

    Sinn Fein will have to move away from that type of thing as well to be electable. Less "drama", more substance needed.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,448 ✭✭✭Field east


    IMO. Labour did the right thing in going into gov with FG at the second last election when nothing else was on . It it probably knew it was suicide and it turned out to be that when it lost a lot of its seats in the next GE. If it did not go into gov then the only option was another GE and that would have more than likely thrown. Up the same combination of TDs ‘ . So Labour honoured its commitment to the prog worked out and stuck with the full term And this was at a time when the country was below rock bottom financially.
    did SF make any genuine approaches to Labour during the makeup of the Gov the last time. IMO Labour’s principals would have allowed it to honour any agreement reached with Labour



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Isn't 'good republican' a dramatic phrase too?

    The phrase is in use for centuries to describe a scenario where somebody is tinkering when everything is burning around them. It remains to be seen if the public think this government is tinkering or doing anything of substance to alleviate the problem they caused.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Indeed and equally based on the last years worth of polling it increasingly seems to appear they don't think that Sinn Fein are the answer either as they are moving to supporting Independents in significant numbers , largely away from Sinn Fein.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes, and SF's strategy seems to be to re-focus on Housing, Health and Cost of Living concerns.
    How that pans out is what we don't know yet.
    But 'turning the corner' has certainly not provided a bounce for the governing parties yet.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,267 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Soundbites are great when things are bad. Empty rhetoric sounds good when shouting at the government. However, when things are doing ok, not great, but ok and getting better, you need to be able to present coherent policies and ideas that clearly demonstrate that your party can make things much better much more quickly. That is the challenge now for Sinn Fein, a challenge that they seem unable to even attempt to meet.

    There is no Sinn Fein policy on immigration, there is no Sinn Fein policy on housing, there is no Sinn Fein policy on health. There is Sinn Fein sloganising on all three, but concrete ideas? Not a single one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Would a new Taoiseach's pledge to fix housing “once and for all” be a soundbite or slogan or empty rhetoric?
    What about “A New Energy” or 'Housing for All'?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,113 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    To be fair, there are policies but they are extremely heavy on the "What" but severely lacking on the "how" part.

    It's very easy to publish a document that says "We'll build thousands more houses" the difficult bit is explaining how you plan to do that.

    Where's the money coming from? , Who are you going to get to build them?, Where are they going to be built? etc.

    In the run up to the Election the "how" becomes increasingly more important to the voters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,007 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    SF are the opposition, they have to hold the government to account and question the spin.

    33,000 properties completed last year, the highest since 2008

    We have also built the most social houses since the 70's.

    These are the facts, not spin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And has the Housing Minister been challenged on how it is all going?
    I think he has. Facts too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,318 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    as my father in law (a staunch sf supporter) would say "ah but its not the right type of houses in the right place"

    can't tell you what the right house in the right place is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,812 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    Hospitals(two critical in walking distance) in area, colleges in area, all with people looking for accomodation

    Luas, train, bus in area

    Shops, restaurants and a huge park not too far away

    A nice little stadium in area

    The area has every amenity that would you want for for large scale apartments yet Sinn Fein block them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The Supreme Court said no. Not nimbys, the Shinners or anyone else - the Supreme Court.

    You cannot use a housing crisis to make mistakes in planning/enrich developers etc etc. We have been there done that and look where it got us.



  • Registered Users Posts: 905 ✭✭✭pureza


    Enriching development companies equates to what exactly Francie?

    Thats a very divisive view to propegate if you ask me

    Businesses need good margins

    Builders arent exactly making a fortune and their model usually means margins on developmens go into starting finance for the next along with borrowings ie its rolling funding

    There was a good study on the whole area released last year 👇

    https://scsi.ie/the-scsi-publishes-the-real-cost-of-new-housing-delivery-2023/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 67,121 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I actually quoted two examples and used etc etc to indicate that there are many reasons to turn down an application.

    This one went to the Supreme Court.

    Suck it up, it was not a sustainable development and unsustainable developments are what we should have learned to avoid. Christ almighty, will we never learn.



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