Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Rjd2

Polls have been wrong before and things can change yadda yadda, but right now SF are very likely to the party with the most seats when the next election is done and dusted in probably 2025.

And then what?

Obviously they will want to form a government and I am looking at the maths and it will be interesting. Obviously FG won't be called and I think the Greens are going to struggle so not worth Mary Lou's time getting them involved.

Independent's for the most part lean to the right so that's not ideal.....

So that leaves a few other options and the most obvious one is FF.

I don't think a lot of SF voters would be to excited , FF will also be skeptical but I think plenty of their members wont be to upset. Yes their are many who are closer to FG but I do think their is some when it comes to economics prefer SF rather than FG.

So assuming SF get a crack of forming a government in 2025, how do we think it ends up?

Nody

I think the likely route would be SF would try, fail as FF/FG decides not to play ball and we get another FF/FG coalition in some form. This will suit SF as well as they can keep hurling about being opressed and promise everything without accountability.

twin_beacon

I think it will be FF/FG and some other smaller party or group of Independents, unless FF take the unlikely move and go into bed with SF.

SF are always very fast to point the finger at someone else, and a minority partner in power with them would be rode for every error.

0ph0rce0

I keep hearing they have a money tree and where will it come from?

Meanwhile the other crowd for 100 years. Money everywhere, Contingency fund, down behind the back of a filing cabinet haha.

loads of cash for the rich mates , tons of cash for the poor (social)😂

Nothing for us that pay for it all.

Even if they don't give free gaffs, free everything (which the current parties have done for years)

If they save a fiver, I'm in.

But but but they'll ruin the country. Utter hogwash.

Nody

I got a feeling you will be very disappointed again @0ph0rce0

quokula

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150820#Comment_119150820

“The other crowd” are multiple distinct parties with different ideologies and policies in various different coalition formats over the years. And in “100 years” Ireland has gone from being one of the poorest countries in Europe to one of the richest, frequently ranking highly in international quality of life surveys.

It does say a lot about how Sinn Fein will promise anything with a complete disregard for reality when they’re simultaneously appealing to people who want to increase public spending and to people who want to decrease taxation like yourself.

touts

We are in for an appalling few years of economic recession. Possibly even depression. In two years anger will be so great towards FF/FG/Greens that I think Sinn Fein will be well over 40% and close to an overall majority. They will then try to go into power with like minded independents and parties such as PBP.

The problem for SF won't be getting power. It will be keeping it. The one thing the left detest more than the right is the other left parties. Any hard left coalition will be unstable as they turn on each other. Can you imagine the meeting of PBP/RISE/Solidarity when Paul Murphy, Richard Boyd Barrett and Brid Smith are trying to decide which of them get the single Senior Minister role, which one gets the Junior Minister role and which of them gets nothing.

But at the end of the day a hard left government will be formed, with one big name overboard in a huff before they even get going.

And then the real fun starts. Sinn Fein won't be hard line enough for their Trotskyist bedfellows. And as it becomes increasingly clear that none of the magical mystery solutions they claim to have to every problem actually exist their poll ratings will collapse increasing tension among the parties. I'll give them two years before we're back to the polls.

Galwayguy35

If the shinners get enough seats they might get the Soc Dems, Labour, and a few hard lefters to do a deal with them.

McDonald did want to talk to FF after the last election and I remember Martin hinting at the count centre he would talk to them but then the next day he ruled it out so must have got a roasting behind the scenes from the party faithful.

Its hard to know how many seats SF can realistically win but it will be the most interesting election result coverage in my lifetime anyway.

sam t smith

Wonder we we see more candidates like Ms. Violet-Anne Wynne and Ms. Reada Cronin next time around.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151063#Comment_119151063

To be fair I assume SF will not be keen at all to deal with Paul Murphy and his ilk because someone like that will be near impossible to deal with, but the only downside for them when it comes to storming the next election they may eat up the likes of the social democrats /greens and leftie independents then yeah may have to consider it.

Jinglejangle69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119150820#Comment_119150820

Yeah but…..

Your little rant has nothing to do with the thread.

Why are SF supporters always on the defensive??

0ph0rce0

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151139#Comment_119151139

Well he asked AND THEN WHAT? So it kind of does, maybe I read it wrong but, How is it defensive?

Like I said, money tree. These **** give cash out like there's no tomorrow. Be it rich to the poor. They tell us we have **** all and pull billions out their hole when someone needs it (just not for the working people, the actual people who pay for everything)

Bellview

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151070#Comment_119151070

last election was voting & transfers was interesting as SF could have elected 5/6 or more TD's if they ran enough candidates and you would expect they would win more seats if an election was called tomorrow... but at the last election the SF surplus transferred (which was also a first..might be floating voter that did this) and helped elect hard left similar to ie people before profit, and even greens & social democrats gained from this... if we had an election tomorrow would SF mostly gain from this group & while this would consolidate the left may not actually help get a SF led government... but that the great thing about elections & the pr system... anything can happen

RoTelly

SF could come close to a majority.

IMO SD and LP will not enter gov with SF, SD may but LP definitely will not (no matter what they may say IMO)

However both may be inclined to provide SF with confidence and supply agreement, and they may have to provide that together.

I have a feeling that SD will only retain their co-leaders seats, while LP may be down to 3.

I can't see FF giving SF a confidence and supply agreement if they are leaders of the opposition and the same goes for FG. Also unlike the 2016 C&SA the numbers from the next larger party will not be required.

SF will most likely work with Left wing Independents to form a government, if they haven't gobbled up their seats. e.g. Catherine Connolly

PBP/S, I4C and other left wing parties are ideologies whom will only work with one another, and only in a fairly broad sense IMO. So you can count them out of any government negotiations, except maybe to save face.

That is of course going on the most recent polls.

IMO SF will most likely be the only party to run running mates in all constituency, FG and FF may only run one candidate in each!

IMO FF are still transfer unfriendly, FG are slightly less transfer unfriendly

IMO the smaller parties including LP and SD will be squeezed, as will some Independents (the likes of the Healy Rae's, Lowry's, Naughten's and Grelish's will retain their seats).

Finally it's a SF Minority government, with the potential of a majority government (depending on how lower down transfers move).

landofthetree

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151126#Comment_119151126

Then you have the problem of the likes of Paul Murphy on the protesting against SF who are now the establishment.

SF can't blame anybody else for the problems of the country when they are the government/establishment.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151253#Comment_119151253

Which is not unique to SF; the protest parties (left or right) have a tendency to flounder after a term or two in power when all their grandiose ideas suddenly could not deliver on their promises and all easy solution slogans turned out false. Which is why I'd prefer SF in government if for nothing else to give people a reality check (this goes for any "complaint" party in general as a side note). Having said that I also think SF are savvy enough that if they do get into power they will be more realistic in their delivery than what they promise now but I'd expect them to take a significant beating the following election.

awec

There is no path to stable government for SF that does not involve FF.

touts

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151229#Comment_119151229

Agree that Social Democrats Definately would. They have to go into government at least once to justify their existence. If they have the opportunity and turn it down they might as well disband there and then.

Labour is more interesting. It depends who replaces Ivana after the next election (assuming she won't try to lead them from the Seanad because she isn't holding that Dail seat). I could see Aodhán Ó Ríordáin wanting to be in the history books for more than holding the world record for the most made up fadas in a single name.

Manach

For conservatives there would be very little enthusism for voting for FG/FF, never mind the liberals' support, and given the likely level of economic distruption that will approach historically bleak proportions, SF might very well gain enough seats to govern with only minimal independent support.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151314#Comment_119151314

Agreed, I think much of SFs increases will come from rural FF votes and they will be forced to hop in bed with them. Also I reckon FG will be delighted to let them and want a turn on the opposite benches as well as let FF take the minority party blame for whatever shenanigans SF get up to.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152646#Comment_119152646

FF will not be needed, and if they end up as the 2nd largest party they are not going into government, they will be happy as leader's of opposition. Imagine going into government when you have the opportunity to sit as leader of the opposition.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152872#Comment_119152872

SF will undoubtedly be the largest party come next election and current polling suggest FF will definitely be 3rd unless there is some massive event nobody currently can foresee. They will absolutely need a smaller party as a coalition partner as I doubt they will be able to cobble together enough left wing independents to form a government based on current polling.

HerrKuehn

I think FF would want to think very carefully about going in with SF. SF are great at complaining and blaming, so when it inevitably goes wrong, FF will be on the receiving end of the blame.

StupidLikeAFox

It would be interesting to see if sinn fein can find enough candidates, they only ran 40 or so last time out (then still complained that it was ff and fg keeping them out of government)

If they unearth enough candidates and running mates to have an overall majority, they could end up with all sorts, and there will be scrutiny on all of the new people for sure.

If they don't run enough candidates and don't have a coalition strategy then they will rightly be called out as hurlers on the ditch

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152902#Comment_119152902

I think 2nd and 3rd is between FG and FF, it seems to swing more towards FG but that could all change. Even as the 3rd largest party FF won't want to be in gov, they might give SF a S&CA but even that is unlikely.

I think the left wing will be squashed, I can see them retaining maybe 3 seats, with centre-left retaining 7, and the greens with 5, Independents I am not sure about, your talking 8 to 10. Total Other parties and independents 25 seats?

If SF secure 70+ I think they will forge out a deal with SD, GP and some Indos. I suspect that GP will want to go back into government to show that they can work with all parties. So then the question is will SD take a seat in cabinet.

Wanderer78

sff very likely, but it could be very stormy, if it fails badly, we potentially could swing further to the extreme's after the fact, possible further to the right, yippee!

I think the Greens will surprise people. they are primarily an Urban party and a lot of their policies are improving the situation in urban areas in terms of livability. The next GE is due in 2025 (obvious caveat applies) so a lot of the current pain points (inflation, high energy costs, housing) will have sorted themselves with housing being the obvious one that may still linger. By that time a large amount of the GP policies will have driven a lot of good changes in cities and towns around the country (improved infrastructure for pedestrians and cyclists, improved PT, lowering of pollution etc).

I would not be surprised to see the Greens picking up roughly the same seats, and offering SF an alternative route to power, depending on how many seats SF get. One thing is for sure, SF won't make the same mistake as last election where they didn't run enough candidates. They'll stick people in everywhere they can get them. They picked up 37 seats with 42 candidates running, an impressive success rate by any measure.

The one downside of that for them, is they have a lot of basketcases in their ranks who will likely cause an endless stream of embarrassments during election time/if they get into govt.

Honestly, I'm hoping SF get into power in one sense. I'll enjoy seeing them having to come to terms with actual govt finances that have to be balanced and not not just their crayon economics. The flipside is I'm dreading how they might make a complete mess of things in the pursuit of populist policies.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153112#Comment_119153112

I think the surprise will be that they will retain 5 seats but yes greens will be around for a long time. However, if it is down to infrastructure etc I think their minister's in ability to take action on DAA looks very bad. Regardless of you want to say "but his hands are tied" etc etc etc.

Though I think it is likely to be SFGP government, with the possibility of SD being part of the government.

SF 71

GP 10

SD 3

84 seat.... is this a possibly outcome?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153112#Comment_119153112

i think the greens could get a severe battering, but so to could both ffg, many just see them as the party thats just gonna keep raising taxes, and we all love that!

it is gonna be interesting to see how sf get on though, but i suspect it wont matter who goes into government next, as things are not looking amazing for some time, we re clearly experiencing catastrophic ideological failures, and we dont really know what to do next. any government is gonna struggle severally, as we can no longer run our state as a single entity, we simply dont have the resources, including financial resources, but its very likely everyone is gonna try contract over the new couple of years, and we clearly need a massive expansion, in particular in regards public finances, but that may not happen. we clearly experiencing catastrophic failures at fundamental levels, we re now no longer able to provide ourselves with our most critical of needs, i.e. housing, health care, energy needs, environmental needs etc etc etc, and we seem to have decided its best to go in the opposite direction, in regards resolving these!

we also have to get over the true 'crayon economics' we ve been following for decades now, as it has largely failed, leading to our current mess, i.e. balancing budgets is by far the most dangerous policy to continually try, it has failed, by doing so, its forcing us become over reliant on the private sector money supply, the credit supply, which just lead us straight into 08! and now we re still trying it, this is madness, in fact its highly dangerous for us all!

Amirani

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153158#Comment_119153158

The current situation at Dublin Airport ain't gonna matter in the slightest by the time of the next election. Won't even be on people's minds in a month or so.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153158#Comment_119153158

Its tight but if FF are out of the question its really the only viable option, SD's would want to be careful though cus Greens have their environmental shield that they will always be able to recover thanks to but anyone else could disappear very quickly

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153193#Comment_119153193

Let's hope its sort this weekend. And continues to be sorted. You wouldn't want a fire raging in a local recycling centre happening! <<< that last part is about a recycling centre fire the continued for weeks when Gormley was Min for Environment. (And tbh I know only a limited amount about the story).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153195#Comment_119153195

IMO SD should be cozying up to Costello and Hourigan to see if they would be interest in from the SDGP, Social, Democratic and Green Party.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153158#Comment_119153158

I'd agree, if SF run enough people, I could see a SF/SD/GP govt.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153195#Comment_119153195

Yeah the GP will be around regardless of the qty of seats. They could have zero seats for the next 2-3 elections and they'll still be there. You couldn't say that about many parties.

They had a good showing at the last local elections (went from 12 to 49 seats) and a lot of their councilors are acquitting themselves very well. Any that I'm familiar with are very visible on the ground with local groups that would be concerned with the livability of their areas.

That being said, SD are cut from a similar cloth and the candidates I'm familiar with seem very savvy in their approaches to community engagement which will pay dividends in the longer term.

L1011

A substantial number of that 49 have left to go Independent or join ARG.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119154371#Comment_119154371

I count 4, with 2 of those forming ARG, hardly what I'd call "substantial".

sam t smith

Social Democrats can’t agree on a leader. What chance they could agree to join a government?

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119154635#Comment_119154635

I think for the co-leaders of the party it is a case of waiting until both retire before electing a new leader. TBF you could say the same about LP after all how many leaders have they had in the last 10 years? 5?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151314#Comment_119151314

This is true.....but there is no political need,nor of any particular benefit to average person in stable governments,with interest rates etc outside of control of any government,(and in theory budget defifcits limited in eu treaties)

Its merely a lobbists dream,to know who to lobby,and we can only see how that has ended up....

whereas a tight government leaves it more open to having to face electorate more regularly to maintain its mandate (unlike a farcial situation of rotating taoiseachs and mid-term cabinet reshuffles,would prefer a government doing this,be endorsed by electorate)

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153022#Comment_119153022

I'd agree with most of this, but SF getting 70+ is a massive ask despite how useless the 2 main parties are.

I need to properly look at the TD map, and while its obvious their is constituencies where their is room for another SF such as Waterford with Callinane I dunno if their is enough for them to nearly double the amount of tds elected.

60 for me would be a pretty impressive haul and I suspect SF would take that right now as it gives them something to work with when it comes to forming a coalition.

brokenangel

The people who voted for the greens before will vote for the Greens again, the agenda by some online is really just water off a ducks back to those voters and fair play to them.

I said at the last election I hoped SF would appear and form a government because I didn’t see it lasting til the end of covid, unfortunately SF realised that themselves so had no interest in forming a government

The next election they might “win” but can they actual form a government? FG won’t join them, FF by the day doesn’t look like a hope

So they will be left trying to form with PBP etc and you can imagine what that will turn out to be, let alone the problem SF have in trying to pull together enough ministers.

Anyway, at this stage it would be better to just let them in, run it into the ground and then we can pick up the mess. Anyone who thinks that Pearse Doherty etc can be a Minister for finance is crazy, especially when you see the wages of 140k for higher tax and then drop by 40k in a few months to 100k, shows they haven’t a clue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119157762#Comment_119157762

It'll be interesting to see how many candidates they do end up running. If they can fill the map in all constituencies I think they'll stand a good chance of 65-75,but I don't see any way to a majority for them.

As for partners, FF might go for it, just to get into office but they will have to be well aware that they run the risk of diluting their identity as a stand alone option.

FG, I don't see that happening. They'll want to stay as the main opposition to ensure they are the best alternative.

Interesting times ahead whatever happens and a lot of it comes down to how many candidates they (SF) can field

sam t smith

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158099#Comment_119158099

Will they do some vetting this time?

🧐

Can they do better than Violet-Anne ‘scrounger’ Wynne or Reada ‘anti semite’ Cronin next time around?

🤔

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158145#Comment_119158145

Yeah I acknowledged that in an earlier post. They absolutely do need to be careful as damage caused by 1 nut job will adversely affect many other candidates.

Will they do the necessary culling, who knows. They have a lot of folks who are waiting for a seat and all that comes with it, might be hard to push some of the less desirable ones to the side, especially if they have provo backing which is always a concern with SF people

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119157762#Comment_119157762

SF is transfer friendly.

Take their 2020 performance, on average across each constituency they achieved 13,800 1st Pref Votes.

1. DBS - 16%
2. WW - 24% - ~6000+Q
3. TY - 12%
4. CE - 23% - ~1500+Q
5. CN-MN - 36% - ~4000+Q, running mate
6. LD-WH - 21% ~600+Q
7. MO - 22% ~2000+Q
8. KDN - 17%, SD Leader Con.
9. DSW - 29% ~9000+Q
10. W - 38% ~10000+Q
11. KY - 20% ~3000+Q
12. DL - 45% ~8000+Q, running mate ~1000+Q (Donegal)
13. DW - 28% ~4000+Q
14. DNW - 44% ~6000+Q
15. GW - 14%
16. CW-KK - 23% ~5000+Q
17. CNC - 26% ~3000+Q
18. MH-W - 30% ~2000+Q, AON Leader's Con.
19. SO-LM - 24% ~3000+Q
20. RN-G - 17%
21. DC - 35% ~6000+Q Leader's Con.
22. DBN - 29% ~10000+Q
23. LH - 44% ~8000+Q, running mate ~500+Q
24. WX - 24% ~6000+Q, LP Leader's Con.
25. DMW - 42% ~2000+Q, running mate
26. CSC - 24% ~3000+Q, FF Leader's Con.
27. DFL - 24% ~5000+Q
28. MH-E - 24%
29. L - 23% ~2000+Q
30. KDS - 21%, CC Con.
31. DSC - 39%, ~9000+Q
32. LS-OY - 24%, ~5000+Q
33. CE - 15%
34. CNW - DNR
35. CSW - 10% - EX on Count 7
36. DRD - 11% - EX on Count 7
37. LK - 15% - EX on Final Count
38. GE - 16% - EX on Final Count
39. DDL - 9% - EX on Count 6

Constituency names by Licence plate reg, were more than one constituency Licence reg followed by are e.g. DFL - Dublin Fingal.

If SF had run a few more running mates their 37 would have been more like 48 seats (Those that got 5000 over the quota, 11 seats), then in cons under 5000 you have the possibility of transfers, those getting about 3000 over the quote meaning 6 more seats. Your talking between 48-54seats in 2020.

Looking at the 6 cons the didn't get elected to, I imagine you can add them to seats in the next elect, bring them to 60seats. But I would say 60seats will mean not much of a swing to SF, you'd have to add 10 or more to that figure.

IMO.

Fred Cryton

SF will cannibalise the SD and PBP vote just as they have the Labour vote.

Remember the recent "surge" in SF vote is really just people who used to vote Labour, SD and PBP now saying they will vote SF. The FG poll numbers of around 20-22% are exactly what they got at the last election.

Also given the youth bias in the SF vote, and the older bias in the FF vote - you would have to subtract about 4 % off the SF vote and add 4% to the FF vote in an actual election to account for voter turnout.

So we will end up with SF on 30%. FG on 22% and FF on 20%.

Realistically the only way for SF to form a government is to get FF to agree to a coalition. End of story.

Galwayguy35

The SF guy here in Galway East is a shoo in I reckon, he is a busy man hightlighting all the things he thinks the voters want resolved.

Although its not hard seeing as Rabbitte seems to have no interest in the people who elected her.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164802#Comment_119164802

SF are winning overwhelmingly in the 18-34 bracket which is to be expected, but in the last RED C poll in the 35-54 age group, they polled at 43% compared to FG AT 16% and FF at a wretched 12%,,,,that age group is the squeezed middle and they do vote unfortunately for FF/FG.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165223#Comment_119165223

Are you referring to O'Hara? He'll probably pick up a seat next time around if there is a good SF surge, he only lost out by a few hundred last time but he's a bit of a cabbage to be honest. I dealt with him on 3 occasions and he doesn't come off well at all. Great man for the photo op but I didn't see anything much beyond that.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166275#Comment_119166275

Yeah thats him, don't know much about him really but he seems to be on the road every day commenting on one thing or another around the county.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119155064#Comment_119155064

I assume by a "tight government", you mean one with a weak grasp on power? There is a great political need for a stable government if you want to actually get anything done.

The problem with SF + a grand coalition of the left is that there are too many competing priorities and objectives that nothing will get done, and there are too many "leaders" for there to be serious discipline. It would be like trying to herd sheep getting government bills passed, and it will be easier for the opposition to stop legislation.

The current 3 party government is only just working, and that's with 3 parties of substantial size. A SF + the rest of the left would be much, much worse.

They need FF, any other permutation wouldn't even be able to pass a budget.

iColdFusion

I for one will thoroughly enjoy a re-run of the SF election campaign based on "FF & FG are a shower of unless idiots not fit to run a piss up in a brewery" and then for the Shinners to spend weeks after the election begging FF or FG to go into government with them 😄