Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996022#Comment_121996022

I agree.
Fairly standard stuff in post conflict/war situations

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121995691#Comment_121995691

At a minimum , revolving Taoisigh and the Finance , Justice & Foreign affairs ministries for the duration.

ELM327

Having a FF as a minor party to enable SF government will likely come at a very high price. Higher than what FG / FF current agreement was

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121995979#Comment_121995979

There is no more rivalry or civil war politics. FF and CnaG/FG positions on the treaty are irrelevant to the current parties.

The only party even closely related to any war is SF with their involvment in the troubles. Which only "ended" 25 years ago

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996254#Comment_121996254

the idea of a SF minister for finance, or justice, or foreign affairs fills me with dread.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996254#Comment_121996254

Depends on seat numbers.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996325#Comment_121996325

Not really - Depends on how badly SF want to be in Government.

SF will not get close to being able to form a Government without one of the FF or FG - That's just a factual reality.

No amount of weird combos of Independents and weird left wing parties will get them there.

If FF enter negotiations , they will hold all the cards and they and SF will know it.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996695#Comment_121996695

I think SF would rather sit it out if they had to give up all those key positions tbh. And I'd support them in doing that.

I don't think either that they would lose support, as the electorate would see FF arrogance for what it is.

alias no.9

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996724#Comment_121996724

That's the whole point of the thread, without a clear and substantial majority which is looking increasingly unlikely, SF are incapable of negotiating a Program for Government. Despite winning the largest number of seats last time round, they didn't make any credible moves to form a Government. What's changed this time round?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996900#Comment_121996900

 SF are incapable of negotiating a Program for Government.

There is negotiation and then there is capitulating to a humiliation.

Nobody is going to blame SF for not going into government with a party that demands what Quin Dub outlined.

If the numbers right now manifested in a GE, SF would be 10 points ahead of FF and if SF regained their 35-37% share they would be approx 20 points ahead of FF and they would have to give up all the key positions of government???

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996952#Comment_121996952

No, they just wouldnt get into govt.

As has been said lots of times, they cant form a govt on their own and so need FF to partner with them.

Its much more likley FF will stick with what they know and continue with a FFG govt.

alias no.9

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996952#Comment_121996952

Capitulation? To what? Their mandate extends only to the number of seats they win, if negotiating with another party with a comparable number of seats to form a Government is considered capitulation they lack the maturity to be in government so expect more sulking and stamping of feet while others work to find common ground.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997004#Comment_121997004

Capitulation to unprecedented demands from a party with at least 10 percentage points less of a mandate on current polling.
The electorate are not stupid.

Nobody I know was fooled by the flowery language last time out. FG and FF simply and blatantly closed ranks to keep SF out.

FF do that again with unreasonable demands, I'd expect their share of the vote to plummet some more tbh.

alias no.9

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997065#Comment_121997065

Seats are the mandate, there were 3 parties with broadly similar mandates.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997102#Comment_121997102

So with FF on 16%-!7% and SF on 26-27% what do you think the seat difference will be if a GE returned those vote share numbers? This is one tallyman's prediction:

Sinn Féin 60
Fianna Fáil 39
Fine Gael 38
Independents 17
Social Democrats 8
PBP/Solidarity 4
Green Party 3
Independent Ireland 2
Labour 1
Aontú 1
Right2Change 1

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997065#Comment_121997065

You are missing the larger point.

SF need the support of either FF or FG to form a Government - That will cost them if they want to close the deal , simple as that and that cost won't be a few Community Centres and bypasses that might get a few independents to align.

I don't see many FF voters (or even those that might be giving FF a transfer) being turned away because they choose to play hardball with SF in negotiations for a future Government resulting in another Election.

Last time out there were no FF or FG voters that were upset with them for not doing a deal with SF , quite the opposite in fact and that's unlikely change this time around either.

What might change though is some SF voters might realise that simply being the single largest party does not bring with it an absolute right to form a Government and that voting for a party able to gain wider consensus might make more sense if the country are asked to vote a second time.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997170#Comment_121997170

 upset with them for not doing a deal with SF

I wonder about that. I think we have yet to see the ramifications of FF going with FG both within FF and with the electorate.
FF have dropped to 16-17% in the polls. So I would not be so sure about it.
Fun and games FF style ahead I think.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997302#Comment_121997302

The drop has nothing to do with their willingness or otherwise to make a deal with SF.

The drop is because people aren't happy with the performance of the Government, but I'd also posit that "Not happy with the Government" does not always equal "Vote for the other guy".

The Party with the largest drop in support over the last 6 months or so is SF . The current parties of Government have a significant lead over SF (42.6% vs 27.2%) and the trending suggests that might continue to grow.

However , the question of the thread is "How to SF form a Government?"

The answer is "Do a deal with FF".

And the reality is that to make that deal, SF will have to make significant consequential concessions to FF , which they and their voters may or may not will be willing to accept.

Graph above is from here

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121996695#Comment_121996695

No, SF would, like most other parties, say to the public, that FF were not willing to do a deal and ask for a majority from the electorate

The public would punish the intransigence of FF who after years in Govt had mysteriously discovered policies that they were interested in.

I can't see FF being that hard to roll.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997421#Comment_121997421

Genuine question , do you believe that voters that vote for FF in the next Election will subsequently change their minds and vote for SF in a second election following a failure to negotiate a deal?

Why would an FF voter change sides on that basis?

I can see maybe some that voted for Independents that didn't get elected perhaps moving back to the larger parties on a 2nd vote , but I truly can't see a voter jumping from FF to SF in the above scenario. If they were planning to "punish FF" they'd have already done so and I don't think they'd see demanding a high price for forming a government as a sufficient negative to change their vote.

I struggle to see the process that brings that change in voting preference.

To your last point - This all assumes that FF hold their line and don't "roll-over" just to stay in power , which of course if absolutely possible.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997391#Comment_121997391

a fair bit of projection going on there.

At it’s base is what you would like to believe.
SF have increased their support since an actual election while FF have lost support.
Remains to be seen why that is.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997466#Comment_121997466

A few would but other smaller parties than FF would lose bits as well. FF might get less 2 or 3s.

The line about Dev being able to burn out homes in Donegal and the residents would stand on the ashes and shout up FF.

FF is a religious belief for many of their older voters.

Micheal Martin's only focus would be on getting a big job in Europe, that motivates his every waking hour. He doesn't like SF but his own TDs hate him and he many of them so..

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997485#Comment_121997485

At the last Election SF had 25% support , today they sit at 27%

FF and FG were on 22% and 21% respectively , today - FG are at 20% , FF are at 17%.

All the polling in between doesn't really matter.

Having said that, FF and FG have both been fairly static for quite some time, in and around 18/19% give or take.

SF though spiked to ~36% about 18 months ago and have now lost almost all that lift ,mostly to Independents it would appear.

With the change in Leadership in FG, I suspect that the Government will now go to full term so we'll have the better part of another year for polling to change all over again.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997551#Comment_121997551

Yes, FF have dropped 5 points.

You think that is because of their performance, I happen to think there are other reasons too, namely allying with FG when there were other options.
We will see how that plays out next time.
I am fascinated to see how campaigns are run.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121995691#Comment_121995691

Shared Taoiseach for one.

And policies.

No radical SF policies on anything will be allowed.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001265#Comment_122001265

"radical" or unworkable policies

Still no idea why FF would go in and get themselves involved in a party who have totally unworkable policies. If they do SF will take all the credit so nothing in it for FF.

Sit back and watch it crash and burn, then pick up the pieces and send SF back to the North to see if they can fix the mess they have made up their

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001265#Comment_122001265

No radical SF policies on anything will be allowed.

I find it very illuminating in the last few posts to see how much of a body blow the rise of SF has been to those who thought FF and FG would be in control into perpetuity.

Even if 10 points behind (If GE results mirrored current polling) FF should still be able to dictate.

Not going to happen IMO.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001468#Comment_122001468

Jaysis,you and your nemesis posters above do come across sometimes as having it bad for each other

If as is likely,FF will become inclusive should the numbers dictate,can we not reciprocate rather than taunting these blue shirts and the Dev's and vice versa

Spirit of the north like 😂

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122001879#Comment_122001879

Taunting?
I was just making an observation on the idea implicit in the post.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121997421#Comment_121997421

That doesn't mean the public will vote for Sinn Fein.

In a second election, around 50% of the population may take the view that because FF started to talk to SF, they can't be trusted, and that FG, as the party that stood off from those talks and refused to engage with the party controlled by the IRA Army Council, that FG deserve their vote.