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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Have to say I do love reading the exceptionalism about 'angry' 'whinging' opposition leaders. Seems to me opposition leaders have always relentlessly attacked the sitting government but seemingly that is a 'new' thing now. All those images of an ashen faced Micheal Martin, Kenny or Varadkar pointing across the chamber while in opposition have been wiped from many minds, it seems.

    The fault lines on which an election will be fought are fairly well established now, Doherty points out the main ones here:



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    The faux outrage act has been going on for years. Try to find the video with him taking off his mask during covid when he was outraged about something as well. It was hilarious.

    I think it was someone had taken all the choccie biscuits



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭Field east


    IYO, why was it necessary for FF being essential to form a gov with SF when there was enough Left wing/left leaning individuals and parties elected to form a government. The Labour Party was on board with a little compromise re gov programme and the Greens were definately on for Working with SF to form a gov.. One did not need even a national school cert to know why SF did not seriously try to form a gov after the last election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭mikep


    I'm aware of his faux outrage for years.. this morning he just sounded really angry.. even when Ciaran Cuddihy found a €750 million hole in his alternative budget he didn't sound as angry...

    They should probably all take a step back and see where the anger is getting them. It must be draining, physically and mentally...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,088 ✭✭✭Clo-Clo


    The alternative budget which they released and had to pull for errors, still has huge holes in it? anyone really surprised?

    For the proposed Minister for Finance, he was on the other day doing the faux outrage on immigration and now today on housing.

    In the video above he was going on about Health?

    That's a lot of faux outrage, do they have nobody else in the party anymore or just sticking Pearse because they think people like his act?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This has all been gone over before.
    The numbers were not there to form a stable government. Here is the then leader of the Soc Dems:

    Catherine Murphy, co-leader of the Social Democrats, believes Sinn Féin is "serious" about forming a left-wing bloc but acknowledges Dáil arithmetic is against this taking shape.“We are interested in talking about the detail of policy and where there can be a similarity of approach,” she said. “None of us know where this is eventually going to end.”

    And this contemporaneous article sums up what was going on fairly well re: options and negotiations.

    It is just a tired old jibe now about 'seriousness'. A taunt in other words.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭Field east


    Francis , I think that you are getting a bit confused now. You are now throwing out words / sentences in the hope that they will stick/ not being questioned



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    You are absolutely correct.

    There was one ingredient needed to form a coalition of the left last time out - leadership. That ingredient was missing from Sinn Fein, PBP, Labour and the Social Democrats. To be fair to PBP, they did publicly get annoyed at the lack of leadership and made their views known, and the other two parties have acknowledged the problem and changed leaders. It is Sinn Fein who think that doing the same thing again will lead to a better result.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I have disputed a claim you made.

    it was the voters who decided the make up of the current government.

    They didn't.

    The voters elected TD's who then went on and decided 'the make up of the current government'. It is their prerogative to do that but the voters had no act or part in it, had Micheal left the door open it could be a SF/FF coalition now. The voter would have had no say in that either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Interesting that the opinion polls now have relevance when FF have lost support, but when SF are down 10% and back to their general election performance, they have no meaning.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The more I see of Pearse Doherty, the more unimpressed I get.

    His 'angry shtick' is getting tiresome. When he burst onto the scene in 2011 he was somewhat a fresh face, but now, he just plays the same role.

    He would be a shoo-in for a ministerial portfolio next time out if SF goes into government, but I'd wager he would be found out quickly as he appears to be hard to work with.

    It's one thing to be the angry man complaining about the government, but no one wants the angry minister complaining.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭markodaly




  • Posts: 4,546 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Really I don't think either SF, PBP or Soc Dems regard Labour as being a serious party of the left given how often they have gone in with FF/FG and the attempts to implement water charges.

    Parties do have some principles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Ive been saying it for ages.

    Anger got them to ride an anti-establishment, anti-political populist wave from 2020-2023. It worked for them then.

    But now, this close to an election, people want to see solutions, hope, competency, and credibility and most of all some humanity.
    They are getting none of that, and the polls are reflective of it.

    Maybe they cannot deliver that, but if they can't they will get a bit of a shock come election day. We will be hearing about 'powerswaps' and similar lame excuses for another 5 years, instead of doing some inward reflection.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Will the 'corner turned' be enough. That as they say, remains to be seen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Perhaps, and the electorate will decide.

    But again to go back to the point, SF are saying that the government are 'out of ideas', when this is not the case, given that a corner has been turned when it comes to housing. Maybe SF should acknowledge that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They are out of ideas capable of 'turning the corner' enough. Fiddling while Rome burns etc.
    That is one of the fault lines the GE will be fought on, remains to be seen how that will pan out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The party that is out of ideas is Sinn Fein.

    When the corner has been turned and the public can see that the FF, FG and Greens government has begun to get things moving on housing, the question for Sinn Fein becomes, how can you guarantee that you will do things better and quicker? This is where Sinn Fein are failing.

    When it was a case of the government is doing nothing and we should get our chance, the absence of read ideas wasn't a problem. However, when the corner is turned, even if only slowly, the question for the opposition is much more difficult. So far, it looks like Sinn Fein have no answers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Im not sure what this means, but it seems its just another anti-establishment populist rant about how everything is crap in Ireland.

    Not worthy of any serious discussion or debate tbh.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No, not anti-establishment. No is everything crap in Ireland, which you are fond of projecting onto posters who have a criticism to make of how the government is performing.
    Anti the current government it most certainly is though.

    They have had enough time to 'turn corners' do wheelies or whatever.

    The point again is that this will be one of the fault lines on which the GE will be fought.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    When the corner has been turned and the public can see that the FF, FG and Greens government has begun to get things moving on housing,

    What data are you basing this on? How do you know 'the public can see'? Surely we would see it in polling support for the government that has driven us around 'this corner'?

    The government are considering scrapping referendums as they don't seem able to convince the 'public' of the merit of anything.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,111 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Record numbers of first-time buyers, Sinn Fein support dropping, FG on the way back up, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see that a corner is being turned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 144 ✭✭acceletor


    So you concede, the corner has been turned then?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    'Concede'?

    I was not claiming that there has been no progress, in fact I asked specifically, is it enough of a 'turn'.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Which is a fair question , but then it prompts the question regarding Sinn Feins continued insistence of claiming that everything is terrible , the Government is awful and nothing is going right ad infinitum.

    Whereas people listened to that message and responded positively via polling ~18 months ago , will they continue to listen to that same message now that it is less and less valid?

    Elections always have an incredible degree of recency bias in terms of how people vote - They tend not to remember that it was sh!t 2 years ago , they tend to vote based on the here and now.

    So , if in 8/9 months time when we have an Election things are going ok and momentum is visible on things like Housing etc. a message of "This Government is a failure and only we can fix it" will likely fall on deaf ears.

    What "positive" messaging can Sinn Fein bring to the table?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Elections always have an incredible degree of recency bias in terms of how people vote - They tend not to remember that it was sh!t 2 years ago , they tend to vote based on the here and now.

    Polls tend to have 'recency bias' too and there is nothing in the data that suggests what is claimed here. That the government have 'turned a corner' on housing in the eyes of the public. When you see significant support for them then you can claim that.
    Do you dispute that housing will be a major factor in a GE? Which is the simple point I made.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    The facts are the current polling puts all the parties at pretty much where they were just before the last election which is a significant change from where things were 12-18 months ago.

    Sinn Fein would appear to have lost almost all of their gains to the Independents in recent months. They need to recover that if they hope to be a serious contender for leading a Government.

    As regards Housing being a major factor at the election?

    It's always a major factor - The only question is which party will gain/lose the most from it.

    The data shows that the pace of house building is picking up and the ECB are likely to start cutting interest rates in the next month or two which will help with affordability, so the momentum around housing is looking positive right now (but as always anything could happen).

    Do Sinn Fein have a compelling Housing story for that environment?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,259 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    SF are the opposition, they have to hold the government to account and question the spin.Again I ask, is the 'turn' going to be enough.
    As FG or FF have gotten no significant bounce, as yet I don't think it is enough.

    That indeed may change and as I said earlier SF are shifting the focus back on housing and health.

    Remains to be seen.

    You will have to ask a SF member what the future strategy is, I can only judge it as it is rolled out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,353 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    "Fiddling while Rome burns" read like a dramatic line from "An Phoblacht". They liberally use such metaphors normally about "The Irish Government". "British governement". It can be amusing to read. "Good Republican's" seem adore a dramatic metaphor.

    Sinn Fein will have to move away from that type of thing as well to be electable. Less "drama", more substance needed.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭Field east


    IMO. Labour did the right thing in going into gov with FG at the second last election when nothing else was on . It it probably knew it was suicide and it turned out to be that when it lost a lot of its seats in the next GE. If it did not go into gov then the only option was another GE and that would have more than likely thrown. Up the same combination of TDs ‘ . So Labour honoured its commitment to the prog worked out and stuck with the full term And this was at a time when the country was below rock bottom financially.
    did SF make any genuine approaches to Labour during the makeup of the Gov the last time. IMO Labour’s principals would have allowed it to honour any agreement reached with Labour



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