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USA 2024 presidential election

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    #272
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121619670#Comment_121619670

    To that point, this is interesting

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/01/trump-rally-iowa-2024-election/677119/

    If one thing has noticeably changed since 2016, it’s how the audience reacts to Trump. During his first campaign, the improvised material was what everyone looked forward to, while the written sections felt largely like box-checking. But in Mason City, the off-script riffs—many of which revolved around the 2020 election being stolen from him, and his personal sense of martyrdom—often turned rambly, and the crowd seemed to lose interest. At one point, a woman in front of me rolled her eyes and muttered, “He’s just babbling now.” She left a few minutes later, joining a steady stream of early exiters, and I wondered then whether even the most loyal Trump supporters might be surprised if they were to see their leader speak in person.

    My own takeaway from the event was that there’s a reason Trump is no longer the cultural phenomenon he was in 2016. Yes, the novelty has worn off. But he also seems to have lost the instinct for entertainment that once made him so interesting to audiences. He relies on a shorthand legible only to his most dedicated followers, and his tendency to get lost in rhetorical cul-de-sacs of self-pity and anger wears thin. This doesn’t necessarily make him less dangerous. There is a rote quality now to his darkest rhetoric that I found more unnerving than when it used to command wall-to-wall news coverage.



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    #273
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,033 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose



    Paywalled.

    ^^^(https://archive.is/f2tcf)



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    #274
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Iowa was never in play for Haley or RDS, but proof if ever needed , the media want and need Trump. Calling this when people were still voting, dire.



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    #275
    ghostfacekilla
    Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭ghostfacekilla


    Photo emerges of Trump watching CNN and FOX on two televisions during the voting. A great insight into whose opinions he cares the most about. FOX presenters bigging him up bigly im their interviews with anyone on the shows. Rupert’s son knows he needs him onboard if they’re to reverse their financial decline, but it’s a tightrope walk for them between now and election day if this is their new change of direction. Delighted Ramasmarmy is getting hockeyed. What a horrible individual to have in a race for public office, in addition to the rapist.



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    #276
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,608 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121615995#Comment_121615995


    There's zero chance of a third party breaking through anytime soon. Yes, the big money follows the two big parties but the real issue is the voting system. Almost everywhere in the USA they use first past the post. That's a terrible system that almost always results in two large parties and makes the emergence of smaller parties (outside of regional parties) almost impossible.

    The one chink of light is that citizens have been trying to change this through voter-led propositions. Maine brought in ranked choice voting in 2018. Alaska brought in ranked choice voting for the 2022 elections and both Nevada & Oregon are voting to bring it in later this year. New York city also brought in in for their municipal elections.

    These should, in time, result in more parties running in those elections as Ranked Choice Voting doesn't penalise voters for voting third party in the way that First past the post does. That's likely going to take years or decades though.



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    #277
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,410 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624583#Comment_121624583

    Is ranked voting STV that we use here?



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    #278
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625037#Comment_121625037

    Basically yeah. Single seats so how we do it for by elections and the president.



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    #279
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625037#Comment_121625037

    Very simplified version , but basically the same.

    You vote in order of preference for the single candidate and if no one reaches 50% they then look at the second preferences.

    It's what did for Sarah Palin in Alaska - There was a second GOP candidate running and his 2nd preferences all went to the Democrat candidate as they all hated Palin.



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    #280
    breatheme
    Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭breatheme


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624583#Comment_121624583

    The problem is that both major third parties emerge every 4 years trying to win the presidency, they don't try to start at the bottom and win local elections, or even seats in the House.

    I understand where they're coming from (since if you get like 5% of the vote in a presidential election your party is entitled to federal funding) and I think it's still putting the cart before the horse.



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    #281
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Lets check in on the Haley campaign lol. Lost to "none of the above" in Nevada and absolutely goosed in all primary states. Monumental lack of judgement from those who bet on someone with such low approval ratings on beating Trump in a primary.

    If somehow Trump has to drop out , it won't be her, the donors may want her but you cant pick someone your party supporters don't like in a general IMO.


    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755218477508337732


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68225999



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    #282
    AbusesToilets
    Registered Users Posts: 9,994 ✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121628235#Comment_121628235

    A strategy focused on winning seats in cities would probably be a more effective method. Focus on one or so at a time per election cycle, build up a base of support in the major population centers. Even a handful of Congressional seats could sway massive decisions.



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    #283
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,078 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121742528#Comment_121742528

    Exactly , imagine what a block of 20-25 House seats under a 3rd party banner could achieve ? , they would absolutely hold the balance of power and more importantly prove to the American public that a 3rd (or 4th party) is a realistic voting option.



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    #284
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121742722#Comment_121742722

    There's a growing number of places using ranked choice voting too - basically single seat STV - which could let this happen easier.



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    #285
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    A very poor day for Biden and unless you are a MSNBC type echo chamber chap, you're very naive to think his decline won't be an issue for the voters. You can make an argument for Biden been superior on policy and character, but for Joe Bloggs does that matter?

    Luckily for him Trump is so repulsive so it probably balances it all out but nonetheless the more we see from Biden its obvious the man is just isn't what he is.

    I don't think they will replace him though, no obvious replacements who would win the EC college and tbf while not having the best of times in the polls he is far from doomed in them.

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1755704576743772328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1755704576743772328%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

    Post edited by Rjd2 on


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    #286
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    Yeah, pretty bad day for Biden and the Democrats. Trump pretty much definitely on the ballot, and Biden gets this grenade thrown at him. He also got the presidents of Mexico and Egypt mixed up, which didn't look great in a speech where he was trying to say his memory was fine.

    On a non-political note, to publicly say that a father doesn't remember when his son died...jesus christ, what an absolute dick move.



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    #287
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The only caveat worth saying is that this coming out now and not during the white heat of the Trump v. Biden campaign? That's a little odd. Maybe there's method in the madness here: not saying it's all contrived or orchestrated but it's interesting that the grenade got thrown in February and not as an "October Surprise". Seems like the whole "Biden is in decline" angle won't go away and perhaps one of those issues where people's minds are gonna be made up. So if there are any stories around it, better them outed now and not when Trump could truly run with it.

    Does come back to the repeated notion that if the GOP ran anyone even vaguely centrist & not so patently tainted as Trump, this would be a walk in the park for them. Instead they're sticking to a failed past president who increasingly cuts an unhinged figure, and keeping their noses close to a lunatic movement such as MAGA.



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    #288
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,410 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Trump is 78 in a few months, older than Biden was in 2020.

    Trump is showing signs of senility. Confeve anyone? Anyone visiting Nambia? - a new African state according to Trump.



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    #289
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

    Doesn't matter, most Republicans will vote for him no matter what he says or does.



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    #290
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

    I don't even think it's "signs" anymore: even in the intervening years since 2020 Trump's mood, temperament and basic coherence has gone out the window; his 2016+ record and overall rhetoric (or lack thereof) has clearly turned off wandering voters when one delves into the stats of the Primaries so far.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744140#Comment_121744140

    As said, this isn't proving to be true as the Primaries have shown Trump underperforming relative to expectation. While 50% of Nikki Haley voters (however few that amounts to) have said they'd vote Biden come November,; for sure the Base will probably induce the head trauma needed to vote for this charlatan again but the wandering, independent voters look to be already lost.

    Trump has a pretty transparently awful record as President, even before one gets to the sticky issues of his refusal to operate even close to democratic norms.



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    #291
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

    Trump's brain is made of mush yes, but looking at polling its not something the Dems can kill him on unfortunately.

    I think because Trump is generally pretty energetic he can somewhat get away with it while at times Biden can be a little bit doddering. Obviously some of the Biden stuff is RNC cynical editing, but nonetheless it is sticking much more than the clips you see from Trump making a clown of himself sadly.



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    #292
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744551#Comment_121744551

    Problem is all the rhetoric in the world doesn't matter 'cos this is a re-run of 2020: minds will have been broadly made up. It's all down to the independents & how mobilsed the left/democrats will be. But that said, I'm not sure Trump is as energised looking as he was 'cos from what I've seen, he's sweaty, looks tired and is even more rambling (if such a thing is possible) - perhaps just driven to distraction by his mountain of legal peril but the guy looks and talks like shít.

    Maybe the plain truth is Trump avoided the GOP primary debates not because he thinks monarchs shouldn't have to debate (though that's part of it, no doubt), but because everyone could see he was & remains a total mess. Put on national TV versus Biden and it may become even more transparent.



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    #293
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,583 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Whoever wins it's really time for an upper age limit.



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    #294
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,410 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744600#Comment_121744600

    Well, Jimmy Carter, at 99, would be a better President than Trump.

    However, an upper age limit should apply to all such positions, including the USSC.



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    #295
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Realistically, term limits are the key. And to be fair, the President has it so really it's the senate and SC that it needs to introduced. It is facial Chuck Grassley and his ilk still hold the balance of power in the country, but term limits would at least ensure he's put to pasture eventually.



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    #296
    breezy1985
    Registered Users Posts: 24,583 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746058#Comment_121746058

    Upper age limit is more "key" than term limits of the idea is to stop people too old from running the country.

    There seems to be no issue with lower age limits but everyone gets precious about excluding the elderly.



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    #297
    Flaneur OBrien
    Registered Users Posts: 3,160 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746847#Comment_121746847

    Term limits for politicians and judiciary is probably a good thing. Career politicians for the most part, aren't a great thing as they lose connection with the people they're meant to represent.



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    #298
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746847#Comment_121746847

    Not precious, just if we wanna talk where the simplest way to apply sensible ceilings to American politics it makes sense to follow what's already there than try to apply something that'd likely meet more resistance. Let's face it, Biden v Trump is a pretty extreme matchup for all sorts of reasons while generally elections have featured younger politicians.

    Problem with old v young is that the old tend to be the ones with more power and money; thus you meet the most resistance. Lifetime appointments are insane whatever way you swing it, especially with an unelected body like the SC. At least the young, old and in between can be voted out of the Oval Office.



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    #299
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,342 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    As far as polling this far out I wouldn't pay much heed to it.

    This sounds very very familiar https://www.politico.com/story/2011/12/poll-obama-trails-in-swing-states-070344



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    #300
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,640 ✭✭✭eire4


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744600#Comment_121744600

    Totally agree and for me there should be one for the house the senate and for federal judges as well.



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    #301
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,019 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121754645#Comment_121754645

    I wonder what Clarence Thomas's plans are if we don't have a GOP president in 2020 or 2024? I assume like RBG die on the job, that's so bleak that either had that option.



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