USA 2024 presidential election

Nody

I thought it would be appropiate to start up a new thread rather than recycle the Trump thread for the topic. Trump as we know has announced himself as a candidate and we've just had Nikki Haley announces 2024 White House bid. De Santis is another likely candidate for the 2024 election on the Republican side to throw his hat in the circle esp.a s Trump is already whining about De Santis backstabbing him.

As per the latest news I've read Biden is still considering if he should go for a second term or not; if not that obviously would open the field quite a bit on the Democrat side as well.

Brussels Sprout

I'll get my predictions in on the first page of what is likely to be a massive and long running thread.

Democratic Primaries: Easy. Biden runs. The dogs on the street know that he's running at this stage. Shifting South Carolina (the state that reignited his campaign in 2020) to to the front of the queue of primaries only reinforces that. There is an outside chance that someone from the left-wing of the party might run against him but I suspect that most will be content to wait for 2028. Yes a majority of Democratic voters say that they don't want him to run again but then when you ask them who they want to run, there is no clear contender. So Biden runs and gets the nomination, probably unopposed.

Republican Primaries: Right now DeSantis is looking hot. He has outpolled Trump recently and unlike Trump he is young, doesn't have any of the baggage of Trump and doesn't have Trumps recent history of losing elections for the Republicans. The thing is though that nobody wins that nomination now. There is likely to be a grueling series of TV debates, starting this autumn and going right through until this time next year when the first states start to vote. We won't know how DeSantis will hold up against Trump on a TV debate stage until he actually does one. As Trump showed in 2015 he will be a nightmare to debate, talking over others, making personal attacks, giving people stupid knicknames etc etc. Another factor is that it's possible that there could be a crowded field. Since most of the Republican states are winner-takes-all or winner-takes-most when it comes to delegates then it's possible to rack up a huge number of delegates with a plurality of the vote. That's what Trump did in 2016. He has a loyal base that seem to give him a floor of about 30%. Every additional candidate who enters the race likely takes support away from DeSantis rather than Trump. So putting all that together I think Trump takes it after a horrible, nasty contest. However my confidence levels in this prediction are nowhere near what they are for the Democrats

General Election: I don't think Trump can beat Biden in a rematch. Since their last contest Trump instigated an insurrection on the seat of government and appears to have gone deeper into the right-wing eco system with all of its mad-cap conspiracy theories. Those things won't hurt him at all in the Republican Primary but they are likely to put off independent voters - especially if he continues to harp on about the "stolen" election in 2020. His one chance was if he managed to get some friendly candidates into key positions in swing states last November but thankfully all those candidates who indicated that they would subvert the will of the people lost their races. So yeah Biden to win re-election when all is said and done (and I placed a wager on him to do, immediately after the mid-terms, at 4.7 to 1).

Larbre34

No harm indeed.

I just watched Nimrata Haley's announcement. On the Jeb Bush scale of excitement, I don't think Ron deSantis will have much to worry about.

AbusesToilets

DeSantis will crumble under national scrutiny. He's a gombeen in an I'll fitting suit and he won't be able to continue to dodge answering for his policy record

Brussels Sprout

Another thing about DeSantis. He appears to be a bit of a charisma vacuum. I don't follow Florida politics or anything so I've only seen clips of him when he makes national headlines but he appear to have a case of resting bítch face. The only mode he seems to project is a kind of disgruntled irritation at everything. I don't believe I have seen him laugh or even smile that much. Trump, for all his faults, has moments where he can be disarmingly charismatic - usually when he blurts out things that politicians usually keep to themselves. He also can be funny - often when he's not actually trying to be. I don't know, it's weird but it seems to have worked for him.

Then again, I haven't really seen much of Trump since he left the White House. Over the course of 4 years he definitely started to ramble more in his speeches. People constantly focus on Biden and his age and his gaffes but Trump is 76 years old himself and comes out with lots of incoherent rubbish in his own speeches. If it seems like he's lost a step himself when it comes to the debates then that could be his Achilles heel, especially versus much younger candidates.

pixelburp

Has any early bolter even stayed the course and become the candidate? Trump is probably the biggest, loudest example of an early voice in the race that hung around ... but beyond that: has any early favourite within either party ever managed to hold momentum enough to finish as candidate? It's a fairly gruelling ask of any politician, of any political stripe.

Only ask 'cos it feels like DeSantis might have peaked too early, even if he hasn't officially declared; and once national audiences get a larger taste, they'll grow quickly tired of his limited, petty schtick. It's one thing to be a billionaire ásshole, having spent a lifetime cultivating a myth of success through bullying - but being an ásshole 'cos it suits the politics of convenience seems like something voters might stay clear of.

The anti-woke rhetoric might play well in Florida and its greying demographic, but can that be used again in 2024, realistically in light of all that's going on? It's not like Fox et al are tiring of that tactic, but if 2020 truly left the GOP chastened you'd have to wonder how likely it is someone like DeSantis might be allowed to succeed.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120241687#Comment_120241687

I'm not sure exactly what the definition of an "early bolter" is but if you mean candidates who led from the start and ended up winning then Joe Biden himself did it in 2020 (I can't recall if he was ever not the favourite, even after he underperformed in the first few states). Hilary Clinton in 2016 is the only other one off that top of my head from any of the races since 2004 although I think Romney may have fallen into that category in 2012 as well.

astrofool

If Biden runs then '24 will be a bit of a damp squib, the GQP will eat itself.

2028 then becomes more interesting, the dems may push left and lose to a more Romney like candidate and it will be the dems eating themselves afterwards.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120241881#Comment_120241881

Harris was betting fav early on especially after the first debate they had and then utterly flopped she actually pulled out before the primaries which was wild considering how much the media wanted her to win. Biden lost the first few primaries and I am sure Bernie was betting fav around then but it all went Biden's way once he won South Carolina after the Clyburn endorsement. It was a bit of one way train for Biden then.

Regarding bolters on the republican side, Bush was fav for the GOP primary in 2016 but it all went up in smoke quick enough.

Its going to be Trump v Biden again for better or worse, for RDS to win he needs the field to thin very quickly but that won't happen unless the donors backing the no hopers crack the whip which is a massive ask.

Anyone suggesting alternatives to Biden on the Dem side are deluded he is their best chance of winning the electoral college, the likes of Pete, Harris and Newsom would be much weaker opponents for the GOP so that won't happen. He won't serve the four years though and to be fair neither will Trump if he wins.

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

Posts deleted. No slang, nicknames etc. Proper names only please. Nobody has time to be Googling what TFG means.

DirectorKrennic

I honestly think that the GOP race is a 2 horse race. It is Trump vrs. DeSantis. No other candidate is polling well. Nikki Hailey and Mike Pence won't win it. Either would Mike Pompeo. Senator Ted Cruz has done the sensible thing not running.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120244439#Comment_120244439

Cruz is up for re-election himself in Texas in 2024. I'm not sure what the deal is there - there might be an expectation that Senators would not seek re-election if they were to formally run for President.

In 2020 7 sitting Senators ran for the Democratic nomination but none of them were up for re-election that year. The previous time that Cruz ran for President he wasn't up for re-election either.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120244522#Comment_120244522

Cruz and his honor!

It's an interesting one, the man does not lack confidence but even he must know that he has no chance of becoming president.

Beto made a big error running for president in 2020 and challenging Abbot in 2022 as he is now finished.

Ideally he should have sat on the sidelines and waited for a rematch v Cruz and he would have had a fantastic chance.

Cruz is much more vulnerable than Corryn and obviously Abbot but with how Texas is trending red he should be fine.

What may change that if Trump or RDS win the presidency in 2024 and are unpopular then the pendulum may swing the other way as is politics.

DirectorKrennic

Yeah the ability to implode in American politics is very high. From Hilary Clinton not winning in 2016, to the fall of Beto O'Rourke and the sheer destruction Kamala Harris has done to her own standing. People might not remember but at one point in early to mid-summer 2019 (June) Kamala Harris was the front-runner to win the Democratic Presidential nomination. Beto is finished. Ted Cruz will most likely be re-elected a Senator but he thought in 2020 he would still one day be President. After Trump won the nomination it was widely expected he would lose 2016. I can remember Ted Cruz doing interviews being like 'the 2nd place candidate, typically always goes on to win the nomination the next time' i.e Ted Cruz 2020. Obviously that didn't happen and now he's not running in 2024. I think timing in politics, like life, is crucial. Even with Clinton, if she had of won the nomination in 2008 she would have been President (most likely given a 3rd term in the White House is very hard to achieve). Apparently Bill Clinton told her before she even declared for 2016 that she most likely wouldn't win but she wouldn't be the change candidate and this is very important in elections. Could go against Trump (assuming he wins the nomination again). The next 1.5 years are going to be exciting anyway!

Brussels Sprout

When I was looking at the wiki page of the Democratic race in 2020 earlier I was reminded of that fact that Harris didn't even make it to the Iowa Caucus before dropping out. I remember that debate moment with Biden in the first debate but I actually can't remember much about her campaign apart from that. I vaguely recall that she wasn't great in debates but I don't remember her having any terrible moments either.

As Vice President she's kind of invisible as well but aren't they always? In my lifetime the only one that bucked the trend really was Biden himself (although Dick Cheney had a lot of power behind the scenes). Has she actually made any gaffes?

spacecoyote

Was wondering on that, is the more interesting discussion on the Dem side the potential for a VP change?

I can't really remember much she's been visible with to date.

With a 4 year older Biden, would they be considering someone who could genuinely need to step up to the main role? Im thinking Pete B?

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120245357#Comment_120245357

I don't see how they replace her, her numbers with the base are solid and replacing her with a white guy,,,,would not look great.

Their may be speculation but that is just bored journalists churning out clickbait.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120245357#Comment_120245357

I don't think Pete Buttigieg will ever be a viable presidential candidate. The white, college educated wing of the Democratic party loved him. The ethnic minorities....not so much.

Rjd2

Feinstein finally retiring.

The senate is a bizarre institution , its very important but its got way to many people on all sides who simply are to old to be their.

Before someone points out the obvious and questions why Chuck Grassley at 89 ran for reelection last year, yeah that was madness but at least he could say with a somewhat serious face that if he did not run then the seat may go to the Dems, what exactly was the Feinstein excuse for still been in office?

Term limits are something that both sides should be able to agree but obviously those in charge of both aren't exactly spring chickens either!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251159#Comment_120251159

Given that actual serious candidates had already said they were going to run against her and also given her well publicised health issues this announcement was only a matter of time.

Katie Porter and Adam Schiff are both formidable candidates and there will likely be several more to enter the fray.

Igotadose

Well, that didn't take long. Ann Coulter (didn't realize she was even around anymore) letting her inner self out to talk about Nikki Haley. She won't be appointed ambassador to India in a Haley administration, that's for sure:

https://www.salon.com/2023/02/17/ann-coulter-thinks-nikki-haley-should-go-back-to-her-own-country-where-they-worship-rats/

Rjd2

Some updates on the also rans.

Mike Pompeo not running.

Only Mike Pence of the big names don't know his plans.

Dire fundraising numbers for Haley who for many big spending donor's would be the perfect president, bland and a firm disciple of zombie reganism.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/15/nikki-haleys-fundraising-incorrect-00092213

Tim Scott early days having nightmare on abortion. Its one of those issues that the likes of Kemp, Reynolds and other GOP governors were clever enough to sign off on 6 week bans to keep the base happy but not make it a centrepiece of their successful re-election campaigns in 2020.

Nationally though the more conservative you get the more "squishy" the middle get however.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/04/16/sen-tim-scott-abortion-ban-ip-vpx.cnn

Nody

To date I don't see anything beyond legal / health issues stopping Trump from claiming the R vote as candidate. I don't think DeSantis etc. will be strong enough on a national level to claim it.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120251159#Comment_120251159

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/04/dianne-feinstein-political-liability

Should have resigned a long long time ago, an absolute disgrace that she was allowed to run for re-election.

Pelosi also embarrassing herself suggesting critics of her are sexist.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120488633#Comment_120488633

How do you propose stopping her? She didn't have the endorsement of the California Democratic Party but still won! It does suggest that the electoral system, in particular for the Senate, is utterly rotten though.

Nody

Biden has announced his reelection bid; at this stage it's up to the Republicans if they want the seat or not (i.e. do they vote in Trump as their candidate who've already lost once against him and has not exactly increased his appeal since).

Sudden Valley

I'm sure Biden is happy Tucker Carlson is gone, as Fox news would be his largest mainstream critic. Think it will be Trump V Biden round 2 with the slightly younger man have an advantage unfortunately as Biden is looking way too frail. Cant imagine De Santis ever becoming president it is like he is trying to copy Trump without knowing what makes Trump popular.

TooTired123

I can’t imagine Tucker Carlson will be gone very far for very long. Fox share price dropped more yesterday than it did the day they settled the libel case! He’ll be back on tv very soon. He’s very popular.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120488722#Comment_120488722

Senate elections are usually the least corrupt, given they're state wide

magicbastarder

the irony is they're also the least democratic.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120518781#Comment_120518781

How do you figure that?

magicbastarder

because there's two senators per state no matter the population size.

the population of california is about 70 times the population of wyoming, but they both have two senators. which means your vote in senate elections has a hell of a lot more sway in wyoming than in california.

AFAIK it's one of the reasons the american political system is more conservative than the electorate; the small states tend to be rural and conservative, but have representation in the senate equal to much larger, more liberal states.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120518623#Comment_120518623

Both Biden and Trump are unpopular but the difference is the moderates/independents loath Trumpism and will vote for Biden. We seen numerous examples in 2022 where all the MAGA candidates flopped.

I seen a poll the other day where voters in 201 who disliked both Trump and Clinton in the end went with Trump. in the same demo Biden has a massive advantage something like 40% ,that's ball game.

Biden and Trump are both way to old to be president and I doubt either would last a full term, but don't forget Trump looks awful these days, some of those videos he has put attacked De Santis , the absolute state of him. I suppose though its to be expected he is near 80 , overweight and has a dreadful diet.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120518772#Comment_120518772

Ah I didn't mean corrupt. Just that money and incumbency distorts everything.

Sam Russell

Well, the reason the US Senate has two Senators is the same reason The EU member states have one Commissioner each - to defend the rights of smaller states against the bigger ones.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519408#Comment_120519408

More so to defend the slave owning Southern states from the influence of the more populous Northern ones. The US Senate is an anachronism and wildly unrepresentative. It should be abolished truthfully and the House expanded to more effectively represent the population trends.

magicbastarder

the US/EU comparison only goes so far, as the US is a single country, albeit more federated than most.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120519957#Comment_120519957

Well, that may be true about slave owning, but that is a long time passing.

However, the Senate generally deals with foreign affairs, while the House deals with taxation and both houses have to agree on legislation.

odyssey06

Is Harris pretty much locked in as VP on the Democratic ticket or is there possibility of a different pick?

Even considering the constraints of the office, she doesn't seem to have made a positive impression.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523318#Comment_120523318

I think that Biden could select a different one, but I do not know.

I think the Joe Kennedy III would be an interesting possibility. Former congressman and grandson of Robert Kennedy, brother of JFK. Would he be an asset to the Dems?

magicbastarder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523318#Comment_120523318

i don't think she's made much of an impression at all, positive or negative?

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523471#Comment_120523471

I hate to say it, but the likelihood of Biden replacing a black woman with a white man as VP are probably around zero. We know how much the Dems and broadly Left Leaning in America will tear each other apart over Purity Tests - Harris getting the boot would be a huge self-inflicted wound, not unless Biden replaced Harris with someone more popular like Stacey Abrams. Harris has been a bit of a non-entity, but then what VP hasn't been?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523573#Comment_120523573

At this stage she could do with a Dan Quayle type gaffe just for some publicity...

This BBC article, albeit a year old, suggests troubles:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60061473

This recent poll suggest her support is solid with base, but unfavourable view countrywide:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/new-poll-finds-stagnant-biden-job-rating-low-harris-approval-rcna75928

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523576#Comment_120523576

Does the Kennedy name carry any weight or is that magic gone for good?

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523603#Comment_120523603

Couldn't say for sure but one would imagine that given the way US demographics are shifting, the lure of a Kennedy no longer carries the kind of water it used to. The rising stars of the Democrats are PoC, women, or both; WASP, Irish Americans appear to be a thinning cohort compared with yesteryear and may not have much value anymore. There's a not entirely crazy argument that Biden might be the last, properly Irish-centric President we see for decades because of this demographic shift.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120523576#Comment_120523576

Harris's approval numbers are dismal. She won't be replaced because the optics would be abysmal and their isn't anyone obvious they could replace her with anyway. Abrams as a political figure for now is done, she got beaten pretty easily by Kemp in 2022.

I don't think it matters anyway, nobody when they vote in 2024 will care about Harris, its going to be a vote on Trump as it was in 2022.

You want Trump, vote Trump, you don't vote Biden.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120240496#Comment_120240496

Hard to see him having the ability to be successful on a national stage rather then just at the state level. Having said that I am sure the Democrats would love to run against him and have him as the Republican nominee with the amount of wild things and sheer hate that he constantly spews forth.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120518781#Comment_120518781

I would say the heavily gerrymandered states like say North Carolina would be vastly more undemocratic.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120561344#Comment_120561344

NC is a disgrace right now. The Republican state assembly is so shameless in their corruption, it would put a banana republic to shame.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120561799#Comment_120561799

And it was recently backed up by their so called state supreme court who said their gerrymandered district maps were just fine.

Rjd2

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/05/07/president-biden-post-abc-poll/

I think Biden is fav for 2024 and their is issues with the sampling size but its clear Biden despite what MSNBC and his online influencers say is not a popular president.

Amusingly the GOP seem intent in running the one man he can beat though.