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USA 2024 presidential election

Nody

I thought it would be appropiate to start up a new thread rather than recycle the Trump thread for the topic. Trump as we know has announced himself as a candidate and we've just had Nikki Haley announces 2024 White House bid. De Santis is another likely candidate for the 2024 election on the Republican side to throw his hat in the circle esp.a s Trump is already whining about De Santis backstabbing him.

As per the latest news I've read Biden is still considering if he should go for a second term or not; if not that obviously would open the field quite a bit on the Democrat side as well.

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Rjd2

Iowa was never in play for Haley or RDS, but proof if ever needed , the media want and need Trump. Calling this when people were still voting, dire.

ghostfacekilla

Photo emerges of Trump watching CNN and FOX on two televisions during the voting. A great insight into whose opinions he cares the most about. FOX presenters bigging him up bigly im their interviews with anyone on the shows. Rupert’s son knows he needs him onboard if they’re to reverse their financial decline, but it’s a tightrope walk for them between now and election day if this is their new change of direction. Delighted Ramasmarmy is getting hockeyed. What a horrible individual to have in a race for public office, in addition to the rapist.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121615995#Comment_121615995

There's zero chance of a third party breaking through anytime soon. Yes, the big money follows the two big parties but the real issue is the voting system. Almost everywhere in the USA they use first past the post. That's a terrible system that almost always results in two large parties and makes the emergence of smaller parties (outside of regional parties) almost impossible.

The one chink of light is that citizens have been trying to change this through voter-led propositions. Maine brought in ranked choice voting in 2018. Alaska brought in ranked choice voting for the 2022 elections and both Nevada & Oregon are voting to bring it in later this year. New York city also brought in in for their municipal elections.

These should, in time, result in more parties running in those elections as Ranked Choice Voting doesn't penalise voters for voting third party in the way that First past the post does. That's likely going to take years or decades though.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624583#Comment_121624583

Is ranked voting STV that we use here?

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625037#Comment_121625037

Basically yeah. Single seats so how we do it for by elections and the president.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121625037#Comment_121625037

Very simplified version , but basically the same.

You vote in order of preference for the single candidate and if no one reaches 50% they then look at the second preferences.

It's what did for Sarah Palin in Alaska - There was a second GOP candidate running and his 2nd preferences all went to the Democrat candidate as they all hated Palin.

breatheme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121624583#Comment_121624583

The problem is that both major third parties emerge every 4 years trying to win the presidency, they don't try to start at the bottom and win local elections, or even seats in the House.

I understand where they're coming from (since if you get like 5% of the vote in a presidential election your party is entitled to federal funding) and I think it's still putting the cart before the horse.

Rjd2

Lets check in on the Haley campaign lol. Lost to "none of the above" in Nevada and absolutely goosed in all primary states. Monumental lack of judgement from those who bet on someone with such low approval ratings on beating Trump in a primary.

If somehow Trump has to drop out , it won't be her, the donors may want her but you cant pick someone your party supporters don't like in a general IMO.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755218477508337732

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68225999

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121628235#Comment_121628235

A strategy focused on winning seats in cities would probably be a more effective method. Focus on one or so at a time per election cycle, build up a base of support in the major population centers. Even a handful of Congressional seats could sway massive decisions.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121742528#Comment_121742528

Exactly , imagine what a block of 20-25 House seats under a 3rd party banner could achieve ? , they would absolutely hold the balance of power and more importantly prove to the American public that a 3rd (or 4th party) is a realistic voting option.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121742722#Comment_121742722

There's a growing number of places using ranked choice voting too - basically single seat STV - which could let this happen easier.

Rjd2

A very poor day for Biden and unless you are a MSNBC type echo chamber chap, you're very naive to think his decline won't be an issue for the voters. You can make an argument for Biden been superior on policy and character, but for Joe Bloggs does that matter?

Luckily for him Trump is so repulsive so it probably balances it all out but nonetheless the more we see from Biden its obvious the man is just isn't what he is.

I don't think they will replace him though, no obvious replacements who would win the EC college and tbf while not having the best of times in the polls he is far from doomed in them.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1755704576743772328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1755704576743772328%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Kiith

Yeah, pretty bad day for Biden and the Democrats. Trump pretty much definitely on the ballot, and Biden gets this grenade thrown at him. He also got the presidents of Mexico and Egypt mixed up, which didn't look great in a speech where he was trying to say his memory was fine.

On a non-political note, to publicly say that a father doesn't remember when his son died...jesus christ, what an absolute dick move.

pixelburp

The only caveat worth saying is that this coming out now and not during the white heat of the Trump v. Biden campaign? That's a little odd. Maybe there's method in the madness here: not saying it's all contrived or orchestrated but it's interesting that the grenade got thrown in February and not as an "October Surprise". Seems like the whole "Biden is in decline" angle won't go away and perhaps one of those issues where people's minds are gonna be made up. So if there are any stories around it, better them outed now and not when Trump could truly run with it.

Does come back to the repeated notion that if the GOP ran anyone even vaguely centrist & not so patently tainted as Trump, this would be a walk in the park for them. Instead they're sticking to a failed past president who increasingly cuts an unhinged figure, and keeping their noses close to a lunatic movement such as MAGA.

Sam Russell

Trump is 78 in a few months, older than Biden was in 2020.

Trump is showing signs of senility. Confeve anyone? Anyone visiting Nambia? - a new African state according to Trump.

Kiith

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

Doesn't matter, most Republicans will vote for him no matter what he says or does.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

I don't even think it's "signs" anymore: even in the intervening years since 2020 Trump's mood, temperament and basic coherence has gone out the window; his 2016+ record and overall rhetoric (or lack thereof) has clearly turned off wandering voters when one delves into the stats of the Primaries so far.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744140#Comment_121744140

As said, this isn't proving to be true as the Primaries have shown Trump underperforming relative to expectation. While 50% of Nikki Haley voters (however few that amounts to) have said they'd vote Biden come November,; for sure the Base will probably induce the head trauma needed to vote for this charlatan again but the wandering, independent voters look to be already lost.

Trump has a pretty transparently awful record as President, even before one gets to the sticky issues of his refusal to operate even close to democratic norms.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121743834#Comment_121743834

Trump's brain is made of mush yes, but looking at polling its not something the Dems can kill him on unfortunately.

I think because Trump is generally pretty energetic he can somewhat get away with it while at times Biden can be a little bit doddering. Obviously some of the Biden stuff is RNC cynical editing, but nonetheless it is sticking much more than the clips you see from Trump making a clown of himself sadly.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744551#Comment_121744551

Problem is all the rhetoric in the world doesn't matter 'cos this is a re-run of 2020: minds will have been broadly made up. It's all down to the independents & how mobilsed the left/democrats will be. But that said, I'm not sure Trump is as energised looking as he was 'cos from what I've seen, he's sweaty, looks tired and is even more rambling (if such a thing is possible) - perhaps just driven to distraction by his mountain of legal peril but the guy looks and talks like shít.

Maybe the plain truth is Trump avoided the GOP primary debates not because he thinks monarchs shouldn't have to debate (though that's part of it, no doubt), but because everyone could see he was & remains a total mess. Put on national TV versus Biden and it may become even more transparent.

breezy1985

Whoever wins it's really time for an upper age limit.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744600#Comment_121744600

Well, Jimmy Carter, at 99, would be a better President than Trump.

However, an upper age limit should apply to all such positions, including the USSC.

pixelburp

Realistically, term limits are the key. And to be fair, the President has it so really it's the senate and SC that it needs to introduced. It is facial Chuck Grassley and his ilk still hold the balance of power in the country, but term limits would at least ensure he's put to pasture eventually.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746058#Comment_121746058

Upper age limit is more "key" than term limits of the idea is to stop people too old from running the country.

There seems to be no issue with lower age limits but everyone gets precious about excluding the elderly.

Flaneur OBrien

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746847#Comment_121746847

Term limits for politicians and judiciary is probably a good thing. Career politicians for the most part, aren't a great thing as they lose connection with the people they're meant to represent.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121746847#Comment_121746847

Not precious, just if we wanna talk where the simplest way to apply sensible ceilings to American politics it makes sense to follow what's already there than try to apply something that'd likely meet more resistance. Let's face it, Biden v Trump is a pretty extreme matchup for all sorts of reasons while generally elections have featured younger politicians.

Problem with old v young is that the old tend to be the ones with more power and money; thus you meet the most resistance. Lifetime appointments are insane whatever way you swing it, especially with an unelected body like the SC. At least the young, old and in between can be voted out of the Oval Office.

rossie1977

As far as polling this far out I wouldn't pay much heed to it.

This sounds very very familiar https://www.politico.com/story/2011/12/poll-obama-trails-in-swing-states-070344

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121744600#Comment_121744600

Totally agree and for me there should be one for the house the senate and for federal judges as well.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121754645#Comment_121754645

I wonder what Clarence Thomas's plans are if we don't have a GOP president in 2020 or 2024? I assume like RBG die on the job, that's so bleak that either had that option.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121757809#Comment_121757809

I can't imagine him wanting to retire even if Trump were to win. He's only 75 which is nuts considering he's been on the court since 1991. He probably thinks that he's get alt least another decade in him (Stephen Breyer retired at 84). Besides, if he's not a supreme court justice then he won't have all of his billionaire "friends" willing to ferry himself and his lunatic wife around on private planes and taking them on fancy holidays.

AbusesToilets

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121757809#Comment_121757809

Can't come soon enough. Ghoul of a person