Russia - threadbanned users in OP

well, tag me in 6 months months and see who was right, we can then infer from the outcome which side were lying the most

indeed, I dont like using absolutes so 60% no change, 30% Russia makes a material advance 10% Ukraine does. There seems to be more downside risks for Ukriane though.

The biggest issue is the lack of munitions and equipment needed to defeat Russia and expel their forces it took forever for 3 patriot batteries to arrive, meanwhile Jordan asked the US for patriots incase of a bigger conflict in the ME breaking out,they were delivered in days ,if Israel asked for Himars and atacms they will be able to ask for a number and get that number, Ukraine asks for weapons they get month's of debates followed on by here's a few do what you can ,

and that being one of the downsides, despite the hubris that the americans can walk and chew gum , the US will have allocation issues. The US kind of have one foot out the door in Ukraine already and Israel will be a much more important election issue so Israel are more likely to get 1st dibbs on what they want. As I believe Israel are going to stretch this out, it will be well into 2024 before a possible de escalation in the middle east.

Jordan asked 2 days ago for the US to deploy patriots, any evidence they have been delivered, let alone agreed to be deployed?

Im not sure that counts as magical, more unpleasant and possible end result.

USA is the supreme global power and they didn't become that by handing over weapons and money for when it's morally justified they do it when it they see a threat to their position. Ukraine is being fed just enough help to maximise the bleeding of russia, their greatest foe. There's probably a coefficient value calculated to represent a stalemate or loss on ukraines behalf and USA will keep that figure about +1. War is a heartless business especially when it's not your population dying for your gain.

where did I say that, I said earlier assume not to trust them, literally have a defense that makes further invasion political and military suicide, that doesnt change wherever the border is. there will be and end to this right? or do you see no agreement in 10 years time and Zel is still calling for an ultimate victory?

I have to agree the US is indeed drip feeding just enough to Ukraine to keep this war going as long as possible to destroy the maximum Russian force possible.

Those humongous storage sites with artillery, APC's and tanks were always a problem for the West if they got into open warfare with Russia. By the time this war is over they'll be empty and Russia's missile and artillery shell dumps aswell.

Obviously Russia can rebuild over 20 or 30 years but it will cost them hugely not to mention rebuilding the lost aviation and naval assets. So Russia becomes a far lesser threat especially when they'll never rebuild their storage stockpiles to the humongous levels of the Soviet Union.

A wise man once said “When virtue tarries, evil smiles”.

Bonus internet points if you know who he is 🤣

no, yes, yes.

Google normally has it but not in this case.

Did Obama requote it ?Doesn't sound like him.

From what I have seen putin has already committed political and military suicide in invading Ukraine's internationally agreed borders. I don't think it will take them 10 years to take back the land stolen by putin's forces but there has been no credible evidence that NATO or the EU would reduce support to Ukraine even if it took them that long to regain the land that is rightfully part of Ukraine. putin might have got away with what he took in 2014 but now it is clear to NATO and EU member states that he can't be trusted to stop his empire building. To not support Ukriane would simply cost more for the EU and NATO.

The losses the Ukrainians have inflicted on putin's forces have been a very effective way of improving the security of NATO and EU member states. There has been lots of comment on how they are only getting enough help to slowly bleed out the forces of putin but this also is in their interest as they need to teach putin and his supporters that empire building is already political and military suicide. That lesson is bigger than lines on a map but at the same time there is no reason the internationally agreed borders should not continue to be the point where putin's empire ends in my opinion.

russia lacks the ability to create modern silicon which means relying on dumb technology with low automation rates and long supply times with high failure rates, it's a combination of bad factors in their ability to wage war. Were it a 3 day war and with the budget buffer they had built up over the years, they might have been OK, but they have removed themselves as a serious power broker in the world, the danger will be what happens when it collapses, i.e. where do all the nukes end up. Will a new head be able to keep it all in line or will it break down even further. I don't think anyone expected Abrams, ATACMS, F-16 and vast reserves of cluster munitions being made available to Ukraine.