Russia - threadbanned users in OP

By Russia leaving every inch of Ukrainian land.

The Ukrainians would need to be honest with themselves first, if they dont honestly believe they cant get back materially more land in a year, its time to negotiate, the risk is the Russians have decided to win on the battlefield and the war ends with Ukraine in a weaker position with 10s of thousands more of their men dead. The problem is this is a sunk cost fallacy writ large. The risk adverse strategy would have been to use the summer offensive as a feint while they built their own Suroviken lines and make it near impossible for the Russians to gain any more ground while keeping their own army intact.

I'd say that first off, the fact that it happened at all meant that Putin allowed it, and it made international news and was a clear signal to Putin's new found friends in Iran that "Russians" support them. Then the crackdown was for the benefit of the Israelis' that he will protect Jews, as he is trying to maintain a good working relationship with Putin, because ( up to now ) he (Putin) has ignored Israeli strikes in Syria. All that's changed now of course, and especially since Amir Weitmann head of the Libertarian Party in the Likud party went on Russian TV and publicly promised retribution to Russians who had helped Hamas.

well, tag me in 6 months months and see who was right, we can then infer from the outcome which side were lying the most

indeed, I dont like using absolutes so 60% no change, 30% Russia makes a material advance 10% Ukraine does. There seems to be more downside risks for Ukriane though.

The biggest issue is the lack of munitions and equipment needed to defeat Russia and expel their forces it took forever for 3 patriot batteries to arrive, meanwhile Jordan asked the US for patriots incase of a bigger conflict in the ME breaking out,they were delivered in days ,if Israel asked for Himars and atacms they will be able to ask for a number and get that number, Ukraine asks for weapons they get month's of debates followed on by here's a few do what you can ,

and that being one of the downsides, despite the hubris that the americans can walk and chew gum , the US will have allocation issues. The US kind of have one foot out the door in Ukraine already and Israel will be a much more important election issue so Israel are more likely to get 1st dibbs on what they want. As I believe Israel are going to stretch this out, it will be well into 2024 before a possible de escalation in the middle east.

Jordan asked 2 days ago for the US to deploy patriots, any evidence they have been delivered, let alone agreed to be deployed?

Im not sure that counts as magical, more unpleasant and possible end result.

where did I say that, I said earlier assume not to trust them, literally have a defense that makes further invasion political and military suicide, that doesnt change wherever the border is. there will be and end to this right? or do you see no agreement in 10 years time and Zel is still calling for an ultimate victory?

I have to agree the US is indeed drip feeding just enough to Ukraine to keep this war going as long as possible to destroy the maximum Russian force possible.

Those humongous storage sites with artillery, APC's and tanks were always a problem for the West if they got into open warfare with Russia. By the time this war is over they'll be empty and Russia's missile and artillery shell dumps aswell.

Obviously Russia can rebuild over 20 or 30 years but it will cost them hugely not to mention rebuilding the lost aviation and naval assets. So Russia becomes a far lesser threat especially when they'll never rebuild their storage stockpiles to the humongous levels of the Soviet Union.