How do you propose minimising future Ukrainian deaths?
By Russia leaving every inch of Ukrainian land.
Unfortunately that hasn't worked so far
The Ukrainians would need to be honest with themselves first, if they dont honestly believe they cant get back materially more land in a year, its time to negotiate, the risk is the Russians have decided to win on the battlefield and the war ends with Ukraine in a weaker position with 10s of thousands more of their men dead. The problem is this is a sunk cost fallacy writ large. The risk adverse strategy would have been to use the summer offensive as a feint while they built their own Suroviken lines and make it near impossible for the Russians to gain any more ground while keeping their own army intact.
300,000 burst vodka infused meatbags pushing sunflowers out of Ukrainian mud disagree with you.
How do you propose they trust Russians to not go back on these negotiations, again?
There is a long list of treaties and assurances that Russia gave Ukraine which they shat upon multiple times.
assume you cant trust them, whereever the lines end up, the Ukrainians build their own reinforced lines. If anyone has learned anything from this war Ukr has learned that land invasions in the drone era is painfully expensive. Their military strategy in the future will be to turn their country into a poison pill.
Their current strategy of destroying the remaining half of the Russian poorly equipped personnel who are being thrown into pointless meat assaults and ever dwindling equipment, accomplishes that and offers an opportunity which lead to the complete collapse of Putin’s regime itself
Which not only would buy Ukraine decades but offer a path to regain all their territory and people and kidnapped kids
Seize any assets remotely linked to the Russian mafia state
I'd say that first off, the fact that it happened at all meant that Putin allowed it, and it made international news and was a clear signal to Putin's new found friends in Iran that "Russians" support them. Then the crackdown was for the benefit of the Israelis' that he will protect Jews, as he is trying to maintain a good working relationship with Putin, because ( up to now ) he (Putin) has ignored Israeli strikes in Syria. All that's changed now of course, and especially since Amir Weitmann head of the Libertarian Party in the Likud party went on Russian TV and publicly promised retribution to Russians who had helped Hamas.
I have zero sympathy for them. Anyone doing business with Russia, even before 2014, knew the risks they were taking.
well, tag me in 6 months months and see who was right, we can then infer from the outcome which side were lying the most
I think in 6 months the positions will be pretty much the same position unless something major actually changes on the ground ,
indeed, I dont like using absolutes so 60% no change, 30% Russia makes a material advance 10% Ukraine does. There seems to be more downside risks for Ukriane though.
Hey your proposal might work if the Russians are willing to part with oh let’s say a few dozen ICBMs and hence offer a goodwill gesture that they will never invade what remains of Ukraine again
Ukraine used to be third largest nuclear arsenal and handed them over in return for Russian assurances after all.
What’s that I hear? You are not actually serious about peace??
The biggest issue is the lack of munitions and equipment needed to defeat Russia and expel their forces it took forever for 3 patriot batteries to arrive, meanwhile Jordan asked the US for patriots incase of a bigger conflict in the ME breaking out,they were delivered in days ,if Israel asked for Himars and atacms they will be able to ask for a number and get that number, Ukraine asks for weapons they get month's of debates followed on by here's a few do what you can ,
thats lost on me Im afraid, tricky enough trying to figure out whats happening or going to happen without having to contemplate magical scenarios lol
and that being one of the downsides, despite the hubris that the americans can walk and chew gum , the US will have allocation issues. The US kind of have one foot out the door in Ukraine already and Israel will be a much more important election issue so Israel are more likely to get 1st dibbs on what they want. As I believe Israel are going to stretch this out, it will be well into 2024 before a possible de escalation in the middle east.
Magical scenarios such as Ukraine giving up a fifth of its country and millions of its people and kids for
…
Russian promises
Jordan asked 2 days ago for the US to deploy patriots, any evidence they have been delivered, let alone agreed to be deployed?
The multiple C117s that deployed over the weekend to Jordan.....
Im not sure that counts as magical, more unpleasant and possible end result.
But that’s the thing
your magical wishful proposal will not put an end but ensures that Russia invades again, like they done before
USA is the supreme global power and they didn't become that by handing over weapons and money for when it's morally justified they do it when it they see a threat to their position. Ukraine is being fed just enough help to maximise the bleeding of russia, their greatest foe. There's probably a coefficient value calculated to represent a stalemate or loss on ukraines behalf and USA will keep that figure about +1. War is a heartless business especially when it's not your population dying for your gain.
So no actual evidence.
where did I say that, I said earlier assume not to trust them, literally have a defense that makes further invasion political and military suicide, that doesnt change wherever the border is. there will be and end to this right? or do you see no agreement in 10 years time and Zel is still calling for an ultimate victory?
You think Putin be around in 10 years? Or a Russian economy or military??
I have to agree the US is indeed drip feeding just enough to Ukraine to keep this war going as long as possible to destroy the maximum Russian force possible.
Those humongous storage sites with artillery, APC's and tanks were always a problem for the West if they got into open warfare with Russia. By the time this war is over they'll be empty and Russia's missile and artillery shell dumps aswell.
Obviously Russia can rebuild over 20 or 30 years but it will cost them hugely not to mention rebuilding the lost aviation and naval assets. So Russia becomes a far lesser threat especially when they'll never rebuild their storage stockpiles to the humongous levels of the Soviet Union.
Even with 20-30 years, I also feel that the Russian Federation's abilites to create military hardware can't even muster itself to the level of even being a pale shadow of its former Soviet self. The Soviet Union had the legs to build up it's military arsenal because they knew that in an open war they would have to rely upon their own domestic logistics chain to keep things going.
But that was before the Soviet Union began to decay, and ultimatly led to a Russian Federation that spent decades neglecting much of what was built before, and also had become reliant on an Western supply-chain. Much of which they are now cut off from.
As I've mentioned in posts before, time is Russia's greatest foe now. The longer they are left out in the cold like this, that harder it will be for them to eventually turn things around.
A wise man once said “When virtue tarries, evil smiles”.
Bonus internet points if you know who he is 🤣
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