Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Monday, 19 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal. Rainfall will average near normal in parts of the west and north, and around 50 per cent of normal close to east and south coasts. There will be a break from frequent showers around mid-week and only some western counties may see further rainfalls around Friday and the weekend. At the present time the outlook for the following week (26th to early July) is generally dry. Sunshine will be infrequent this week but may return to longer spells in the more settled interval mid-week, and after this week ends.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become mostly cloudy after some morning sunny breaks, warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms developing, once again fairly widespread by afternoon especially in Connacht, midlands, west Munster and parts of Ulster. Local amounts of 10-20 mm likely there, with highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy, warm and humid, with showers persisting in some western and northern counties. Fog patches and lows 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will see continued frequent showers and thunderstorms with mostly cloudy skies. It may become somewhat more active than today with more persistent rainfalls inland west to north, but both days will add 10-20 mm amounts in more active western zones, and 5-10 mm in parts of the east. Lows 13 to 16 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

By WEDNESDAY partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers, lows 12 to 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to sunny, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

FRIDAY rain becoming heavy at times near western coastal fringes but the bulk of this system will perhaps remain offshore and central to eastern counties could remain dry, lows 12 to 15 C and hghs 20 to 24 C.

WEEKEND of 24th-25th partly cloudy and warm, a few showers and thunderstorms, with a gradual clearing trend, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 19 to 25 C.

Most of the following week will be dry with some sunshine at times, highs in mid-20s. Some higher temperatures likely at times during the week in parts of Britain and France (low 30s). Ireland may top out closer to 26 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and very cool with the snow line reportedly as low as nearby mountain passes at 1500 m elevation; a cold rain fell from time to time at our elevation and temperatures were only 8 to 11 C depending on how hard it was raining. This is about 10 deg below normal for our climate and 15 to 20 deg colder than many days earlier in May and June. Bears likely holding an emergency meeting, should we hibernate again, or what is happening ... a gradual return to more normal conditions is expected later in the week.

Wednesday, 21 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... warm with temperatures generally 1 to 3 deg above normal. Near average amounts of rainfall expected, also sunshine will improve to near average values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out partly cloudy with a gradual buildup of showers and thunderstorms mainly in central counties. There will be a gradual eastward drift of this activity during the afternoon and western counties may become more sunny, while a few heavy storms could develop in Leinster, most likely around Meath, Kildare and Laois. Local downpours and hail with frequent lightning in these storms, but wind gusts will be quite localized and in general light westerly breezes can be expected. Today's highs around 21 or 22 C.

TONIGHT clearing skies for many areas, as eastern coastal showers die out. Fog patches after midnight. Lows 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, but some rain may develop across western counties by late afternoon and evening, as a southerly wind increases there to 30-50 km/hr; highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY cloudy with a few breaks, and outbreaks of heavy sometimes thundery rain more persistent in west, north and midlands. Moderate south to southwest winds. Very humid, lows 13 to 16 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy and very warm, southerly winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 14 to 18 C and highs 23 to 26 C. Rain will develop late in the day in western counties.

SUNDAY early morning showers and thunderstorms will be persistent in some central and eastern counties to mid-day. Cooler with variable cloud following the clearance eastward of the showers. Lows 14 to 18 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be fairly warm again with some sunshine at times, and a few outbreaks of rain in the mix, highs 22 to 25 C. Another cold front will sweep through late Tuesday or early Wednesday 28th, and this will likely lead to a bit of a change in the pattern towards cooler and more variable conditions. Temperatures late in the month and into early July may be somewhat lower than we've been seeing lately but still around average or slightly above at times, in the 18 to 22 C range.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and cool with a few showers, and highs only about 14 C. Clearing skies are not expected until late tomorrow. If you have clear skies after sunset this evening, check out the view of the crescent moon and very bright Venus in the western skies.

(Summer solstice is today at 3:58 p.m. or 1458h universal time (GMT, z) if you're in a different time zone)

Friday, 23 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... All elements will be close to average values for late June, with rainfall concentrated on Sunday as well as some later today and on Monday into mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, warm and humid with further outbreaks of rain developing. Moderate south to southwest winds. A few brighter intervals may boost highs to the range of 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy, warm and humid with a few brief showers in southerly breezes, lows 14 to 18 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast and very warm, humid with southerly winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 14 to 18 C and highs 21 to 25 C. Rain will develop by afternoon or evening in western counties.

SUNDAY early morning showers and thunderstorms will be persistent in some central and eastern counties to mid-day. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm will be widespread. Cooler with variable cloud following the gradual clearance eastward of the rain and showers. Lows 14 to 18 C, highs 17 to 21 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be fairly warm again with some sunshine at times, and a few outbreaks of rain in the mix, lows 10 to 13 C Monday and 13 to 16 C Tuesday, and highs both days 21 to 24 C. Rain more persistent in parts of the north until later Tuesday when it may spread to all regions.

By WEDNESDAY somewhat cooler, partly cloudy with moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C. Cooler in stages later in the week with further showers likely in a west to northwest flow, highs near 18 C Thursday and 17 C Friday. The early part of July looks rather cool and unsettled also.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly sunny and warmer with highs around 24 C. .

Sunday, 25 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS are gradually changing towards cooler and wetter, but this will take most of the current week which will likely average close to normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will turn cooler with frequent showers and some heavy bursts of rain, possibly thundery by mid-day. Partial clearing will follow with best sunshine likely in western counties. Today's highs will be 16 to 20 C. Some moderate southerly wind gusts becoming westerly by afternoon, wind likely to be quite variable in speed as several troughs move across the country.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few breaks, and passing showers. Lows 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY variable cloud with some outbreaks of rain more frequent in Connacht and west Ulster, highs 17 to 20 C. Moderate southwest winds.

TUESDAY also partly cloudy to overcast, a bit warmer briefly after rain moves through in the morning, with gusty showers and isolated thunderstorms later. Winds southwest 50-70 km/hr by mid-day. Lows 10-13 C and highs 21-24 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers, cool, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

FRIDAY occasional rain, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

Moving into July it seems likely to remain rather cool and unsettled for quite some time, let's hope not the entire month.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly sunny with distant thunderstorm clouds spreading mostly higher fragments of anvils that were being displaced towards us, without any rain or thunder locally. It was rather warm and breezy at 25 C.

Tuesday, 27 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... Temperatures will start to cool after a warm day today, and the average for the week may be about 1 deg below normal. Rainfall will be near average in north and west, to only 25 per cent of normal in the southeast. Rather cloudy so that sunshine is likely to be less than 75 per cent of normal values, closer to 4 hours a day than 5.5 hours which is normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be quite warm and muggy with some cloudy intervals and some very warm sunshine at times, more likely away from Atlantic coasts where some sea fog may drift inland at times. A few showers could develop but patchy drizzle will be more confined to west and north; highs will reach 22 to 25 C except 18 to 21 C in marine layers near northwest coasts. Winds southwest 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and continued warm in east, but turning cooler and fresher in western and northern counties where rain may be heavy at times. Lows 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, some longer bright spells by afternoon, with moderate westerly breezes 30-50 km/hr, and lows 7 to 10 C, highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers, westerly breezes backing to southerly but remaining cool, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, some brighter intervals, also some intervals of light to moderate rain, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

WEEKEND of 1-2 July will see little change to this unsettled and near-average (for temperature) regime, and in fact the following week could be quite similar too. There are faint signs of a brief warmer interval around 7-9 July but that may be followed by a return to the more unsettled conditions.

With this more mobile pattern, it's possible there will be slight influences of the extensive smoke layers blowing away from fires in Quebec province in eastern Canada. That may manifest itself as more colourful sunsets or appearance of elevated smoke layers at times in coming weeks.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with afternoon cloudy spells and rather warm with highs around 27 C. The severe heat continues in parts of the south central U.S. and widespread severe storms have moved from central to eastern states over the past few days.

Thursday, 29 June, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead are generally cool, wet and cloudy. Rainfall may not exceed normal values in parts of the east but will be 25 to 50 per cent above in most other regions. Also there are indications of a very wet interval after this coming week has ended, around 7th to 9th of July. Confidence in this is only moderate at present.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few intervals of light rain, more persistent near Atlantic coasts; highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT cloudy with rain becoming heavier towards morning across south and west. Lows 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY cloudy, rather humid and damp with outbreaks of rain, heavier across southwest where 15-25 mm possible; highs 17 to 20 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, breezy, passing showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY breezy to windy at times, especially near northwest coasts, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr, partly cloudy to overcast with some intervals of rain more persistent in western counties. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C north to 18 C south.

MONDAY partly cloudy, showers or intervals of rain, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

Little change is expected in this rather gloomy outlook later next week and models are showing potential for quite a stormy interval around the weekend of 8th-9th with possible heavy rainfalls especially over west Ulster and Connacht. As mentioned in the trends above, confidence in this is moderate rather than high. It would be a natural evolution of this recent pattern interacting with warmer than normal eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with buildups of thunderstorms over most higher terrain around the region; today these storms were not moving much and seemed to die off around mid-afternoon, so while we heard thunder for about an hour there was no rain here, but some up the highway north of town. I drove up to investigate the cell and could see a funnel cloud near the highest peaks but that became obscured by rain after a few minutes, results unknown as it was over a wilderness area. The severe heat wave continues across Texas and has spread some distance north now. Locations in Kansas reached 38 C (it is 43 to 46 in the core of the heat over Texas). So far this shows no signs of spreading in full force to the east coast but it has turned warmer after quite a cool month of June there. It's unusual but New York City will record a month not only below recent normal values but below 150-year period of record average values too. Factoring in the urban heat island it appears to be one of the coolest Junes in the last fifty years. Wildfire smoke may be playing some part in this although to get the smoke to come south requires a northerly flow so it's a question of cause and effect.

Saturday, 1 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal although it will begin to recover to near normal later in the interval. Rainfalls will be near average but may be somewhat above normal in parts of the north and below average in the southeast. Sunshine will run below normal by 25 to 50 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few morning sunny breaks, and there will be patchy outbreaks of drizzle followed by passing showers mainly in northern counties. Moderate westerly breezes sometimes 40-60 km/hr, and rather cool, highs 15 to 18 C for most, 18 to 20 C near south coast.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy with a few breaks, passing showers, moderate westerly winds, lows 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY breezy to windy at times, especially near northwest coasts, winds west to northwest 40-70 km/hr, partly cloudy to overcast with some intervals of rain more persistent in western counties. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C north to 18 C south.

MONDAY partly cloudy, showers or intervals of rain, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, but some steady rain developing late in the day in western counties, with lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

From FRIDAY 7th to SUNDAY 9th, a little warmer and quite humid with outbreaks of rain, isolated thunderstorms, highs near 20 C on Friday and Saturday, and 17 C on Sunday, overnight lows 9 to 12 C (possibly 14 C Saturday in east). This event may produce some locally heavy rainfalls in north central counties. A southerly flow around Friday and early Saturday will become more westerly by the weekend.

The following week continues to look unsettled with more passing disturbances and occasional intervals of northerly flow bringing in rather cool air masses from around Iceland. This pattern interacting with warmer than normal sea surface temperatures is likely to produce a lot of cloud and unstable showery conditions.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and hot with a high reaching 35 C. It's pleasantly breezy and clear with a cooler air mass pushing in from the Pacific and the expected highs on the weekend will be in the mid 20s, but we're then looking at another hot and sunny spell developing next week. By the way, two years ago on 30th June we had our all-time high of 44 C here in the infamous heat dome, and the B.C. town of Lytton (where it was 49 C) being burned down in a wildfire still being investigated, sparks from passing coal trains are one leading theory as to the cause, and strong winds then spread the fire very fast. As of today there has been basically no rebuilding there (a few houses spared by the fire are still inhabited) as they plod through studies and assessments. I think the main problem is that it wasn't that great a location for a town in the first place (in a heated barren valley that was often the hottest location in Canada) and now it's even less hospitable, but the community want to rebuild somewhere.

Monday, 3 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... temperatures warming slowly from 2-3 deg below normal at first to similar amounts above average by Friday and Saturday, dropping back a bit around Sunday. Overall near average. Rain quite heavy in west, especially around Friday into Saturday, and closer to average amounts central and eastern, but fairly persistent with limited dry spells, and therefore less sunshine than usual for early July.

FORECASTS

TODAY outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain will continue to track east with north Leinster and east Ulster seeing 20-30 mm amounts locally, 5-10 mm elsewhere, with partial clearing around mid-day followed by further showery intervals, all accompanied by moderate westerly winds 30-50 km/hr, and highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy with intervals of rain, breezy with lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY mostly cloudy, rain at times, some intervals of strong breezes from west veering to northerly, but variable conditions, a few brighter intervals, highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, cool, showers, and moderate westerly breezes returning, lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some dry intervals at first, then outbreaks of rain spreading into western counties, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 16 to 20 C.

FRIDAY warmer and more humid with outbreaks of rain, locally heavy and thundery, especially in western coastal regions, potential for 30-50 mm local downpours, continuing into the overnight period. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

SATURDAY further heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading further east, warm and humid, lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and isolated thunderstorms, somewhat fresher, lows near 12 C and highs 15 to 19 C.

The rest of the following week will likely be similar to this week in general, with passing frontal systems and occasional rainfalls in near normal temperatures.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny, pleasantly cool and breezy at times with very low humidity, highs around 24 C. Full moon tonight, very low on the southern horizon.

Wednesday, 5 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal as a warming trend sets in later in the week. Rather wet in western counties and rainfalls near average further east. Some sunshine at times but totals a bit below average by 25 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, cool and breezy, with outbreaks of rain at times, highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and lows near 7 C east and north, to 11 C south and west.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, some dry intervals at first, then outbreaks of rain spreading into western counties, with highs 16 to 20 C.

FRIDAY warmer and more humid with outbreaks of rain, locally heavy and thundery, especially in western coastal regions, potential for 30-50 mm in local downpours, continuing into the overnight period. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 18 to 22 C. Blustery south winds 40-60 km/hr and possibly stronger 60-80 km/hr near south coast.. Rain may hold off until late afternoon or evening in parts of Leinster and east Ulster. Note, some very heavy rain is depicted on some model forecasts near or just off the west coast at times, if this moved inland, there could be some higher rainfall totals.

By FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY MORNING, an interval of strong winds is possible in many parts of the south, southerly gales 60-90 km/hr may push into south coast and then fan out over Munster and the midlands later in the night. These blustery conditions will likely moderate by the daytime hours of Saturday ...

SATURDAY further heavy showers and thunderstorms spreading further east, but also some longer dry spells in variable cloud; warm and humid, lows near 15 C and highs 19 to 22 C. Quite breezy at times, especially near south coast, south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Showers likely more evenly distributed in all regions but could be heaviest in midlands.

SUNDAY partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY outbreaks of rain and rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C, northerly winds developing 30-50 km/hr.

By TUESDAY 11th, gradual clearing, isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

The trend into mid-July will be rather cool and unsettled, temperatures possibly falling back slightly below average (16-19 C) and rather frequent showery intervals with some sunshine each day, in a westerly flow from the Atlantic.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and warm with a high near 27 C.

Friday, 7 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, a blend of warmer readings today to Sunday, and more average temperatures during the Monday to Thursday interval. Rather wet, especially over western counties where 50 per cent above normal rainfalls are likely; amounts closer to average further east. By Tuesday all regions will have seen significant rainfalls. Quite cloudy in general, sunshine will be challenged to reach half of the normal values, which at this time of year are close to six hours a day.

TODAY will become warm and humid with outbreaks of heavy rain at times near west coast and later spreading into south coast counties. More isolated showers and thunderstorms further east; winds becoming southerly 40-60 km/hr and highs 20 to 23 C. Mostly cloudy but a few sunny intervals at times.

TONIGHT will become quite windy with showers and thunderstorms spreading north, winds south to southwest 60-90 km/hr in exposed areas. Lows around 15 C. Possible severe storms in west Munster towards morning. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm in total over western counties, 5-15 mm central to northeast.

SATURDAY will bring some gradual clearing from the southwest behind the northward-moving complex of showers and gusty winds. A more moderate southwest wind and sunny breaks with scattered thunderstorms will follow the blustery conditions in the morning, which may persist to mid-day near the east coast; highs 21 to 24 C. Some severe storms are possible in the midlands late morning and towards north Leinster and Ulster by early afternoon.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain, some thundery, with lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

By the end of the weekend, 40-60 mm rain may have fallen in western and some northern counties, 15-35 mm on average further east.

MONDAY will also be unsettled with frequent showers and cooler temperatures near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, and temperatures steady 15 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a gradual end to this unsettled interval with a few brighter intervals and showers more intermittent, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

Later in the week, partly cloudy with isolated showers, before another more organized frontal system arrives near the start of the weekend of 15th-16th. No changes indicated in the generally unsettled regime further into July.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy and very warm, with threatening skies at times but no thunderstorms nearby, highs near 29 C.

Sunday, 9 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures near normal values to slightly below by mid-week; rather wet especially over Ulster and Connacht, and quite cloudy in general.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring further outbreaks of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The activity will spread from Munster this morning to Connacht and west Ulster, midlands by mid-day and afternoon. Some heavy thunderstorms may develop especially in Clare, Galway, Mayo and Roscommon. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm are possible in that area. Around some coastal regions there may be some partly cloudy and rather warm intervals and not all locations will see rain but most will; highs 17 to 20 C warmest in the inland southeast.

TONIGHT will be overcast, misty or foggy, with outbreaks of rain spreading north again. Lows 11 to 13 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times in west and north. Lows 11 to 13 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with more isolated showers, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with heavy showers at times, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

A rather unsettled regime will continue but there could be some warmer days in the mix eventually.

My local weather was sunny with afternoon thunderstorms developing, with some hail. It was hot again with highs around 30 C.

Tuesday, 11 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain cool, wet and cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavier and more persistent in Leinster and parts of Ulster and the midlands. A slow and partial clearing trend will develop across the western counties by afternoon but there will continue to be a few showers. Rather cool also, with highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT the gradual clearing trend will work further east with showers becoming more infrequent. Lows 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, lows 8 to 11 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will bring some brighter intervals in the first part of the day, before light rain begins to spread in from the Atlantic by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with heavy showers at times, lows near 12 C and highs 14 to 18 C. It may remain quite cool in parts of the north midlands and Ulster.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and cloudy, quite cool with passing showers or outbreaks of light rain. Lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will improve slightly to partly cloudy to overcast and less widespread showers. Lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY appears likely to bring more rain at times with highs 15 to 19 C.

The following week will not see much improvement although it could be slightly warmer mid-week for a day or two (near 20 C).

My local weather was mostly cloudy with intervals of rain during the afternoon, and highs around 22 C. We are expecting some further rain on Tuesday.

Thursday, 13 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue rather cool, wet and cloudy. Rainfalls may be heaviest in the northwest but all regions are likely to see at least 25 per cent above normal amounts, much of that coming Friday and on the weekend. Sunshine will be infrequent. There may be a somewhat improved interval mid-week next week. Some guidance is showing more heavy rain and cool temperatures two weeks from now, but that can easily change to something much different of course.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some brighter intervals in the first part of the day, before light rain begins to spread in from the Atlantic by mid-day into the afternoon with highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT misty or foggy with light rain turning quite heavy towards morning near the south coast. Becoming rather windy especially near south and east coasts, southeasterly winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows 10 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with heavy showers at times, lows near 12 C and highs 14 to 18 C. It may remain quite cool in parts of the north midlands and Ulster. Low pressure will sweep in from the south during the early morning hours, bringing outbreaks of heavy rain and gusty winds occasionally 50-70 km/hr from the southeast, veering south-southwest later. The low will spin around north of Ulster by Friday night and the heavier rain will stall out over Ulster and the north midlands, parts of Connacht. Total rainfalls by Saturday morning around 30-40 mm in some parts of the inland south where flooding quite possible, and 15-30 mm in most other regions with isolated flooding possible. The track of this system may mean that strong winds will not materialize in all locations, or for all of the day, as places close to the track of the low and to its west will be at least temporarily shielded from the surface components of the winds, but south and east coast will almost certainly see some near-gale-force gusts at times. As we approach new moon high tides on those coasts will be quite elevated.

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy and cloudy, quite cool with passing showers or outbreaks of light rain. Lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 17 C. There may be more persistent heavy rainfalls in Donegal and nearby portions of other counties with potential for 20-30 mm additional rainfall locally. Otherwise further rainfalls will be generally around 10-15 mm. Any flooding that develops Friday could be maintained even by relatively moderate additional rainfalls.

SUNDAY will improve slightly to partly cloudy to overcast and less widespread showers. Lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY appears likely to bring more rain at times with highs 15 to 19 C.

The following week will not see vast improvement although it could be slightly warmer mid-week for a day or two (near 20 C) with less frequent rainfalls or even an entirely dry day (fingers crossed). Guidance now shows some near-record cool and wet weather at times after that improved interval, with some maps showing deep low pressure systems (especially for time of year) around two weeks from now. Uncertainty in that time frame causes me to remind anyone who might see any forecasts based on these maps, that actual tracks and outcomes could be a lot different and what this signal tells us is basically that a lot of energy will be interacting with a cool trough of low pressure near the region. The actual outcomes might include all sorts of variations based on slightly different tracks and intensities. Also at two weeks lead time, such events sometimes fail to materialize entirely. Another speculative idea is that all the smoke from forest fires in eastern Canada may be having an impact on weather patterns and also providing extra material in the atmosphere for precipitation nuclei. There have been very few totally dire summers in recent decades, going back further into the records one can find some surprisingly cold and wet summers with much lower average temperatures than we are used to nowadays. Climate change may alter the probability of such outcomes but it cannot prevent them from happening at all (as we've seen with cold months like Dec 2010 and Mar 2013).

My local weather was sunny until mid-afternoon, warm but not hot at around 25 C, then thunderstorms rolled in from the south, with very little rain locally but some more intense cells moving past us on either side.

Saturday, 15 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead will be cool, wet and windy, quite unseasonable for July. There will be a bit of an improvement for a day or so late in the week but more unsettled intervals may well follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy, increasingly windy, and wet. A band of heavy rain will form on the southern flank of low pressure now stalled out near Donegal. That band will extend from central Connacht across the midlands to the Dublin region, with 20-30 mm rain possible by this evening. Strong northwest winds are beginning to ramp up over large parts of the western counties and will reach 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, and those winds will feed in as strong westerly winds (40-70 km/hr) accompanying the rainfall in central regions. The south will be just marginally less unpleasant with more intermittent rain and some variations in wind speed but some strong gusts at times (also to 70 or 80 km/hr). It will be unseasonably cool with highs only 15 or 16 C and readings of 13 or 14 at times during downpours.

TONIGHT will continue windy and wet but towards morning the rain will become more showery. Lows 8 to 10 C. Winds west-northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Further rainfalls of 5-10 mm.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy, cool and unsettled with bands of squally showers sweeping in from the Atlantic. Winds west-northwest 50 to 70 km/hr, highs 14 to 16 C. Some brief brighter spells will develop, more frequent in the south.

MONDAY will see the last remnants of this storm moving away from Ulster during the morning. A weak ridge will bring partly cloudy skies and light winds for a time, across most regions. Lows 7 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C. Some rain will develop off the southwest coast and may move inland late in the day.

TUESDAY will be overcast with rain and a few thunderstorms. Winds will be rather light in this system, but west coast counties may see some intervals of moderate northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C although some cooler air may be trapped under low cloud in the northern counties, a few locations could see readings near record low values for July daytime hours (12 to 14 C). Rainfalls of 15 to 30 mm are likely with heaviest amounts in the midlands.

WEDNESDAY some further rain as the system pulls away slowly, winds turning northerly over all regions, and rain more showery by afternoon. Lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C.

On Thursday, variable cloud and passing showers, but some drier intervals too. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

By Friday, cloudy, breezy with passing showers, lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

Continued rather unsettled most of the time from weekend of 22-23 July although one or two days could remain dry. The system that was showing up during the late July period is more of a cool west to northwest flow with the low now dropping in from the north. This period keeps undergoing revision but the various model guesses about it are mainly different forms of cool, unsettled conditions, so that part of the signal is consistent.

My local weather on Friday was sunny, hazy and hot (32 C up here and 36 C in the valley) with forest fire smoke beginning to show up for the first time this summer locally, mostly from fires to our south in central WA state. Thicker smoke which has been persistent well to our north remains a problem there.

Monday, 17 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead will be rather close to average in all respects, although sunshine may run about 75 to 90 per cent of normal. Tuesday and Saturday will be wetter days than the rest in this interval. Partly cloudy skies with scattered showers will be a fairly frequent description of the next few weeks.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain mostly over portions of the south midlands to east coast. Rainfall amounts of 3-5 mm are possible in a narrow band from about north Tipps to Wicklow. Many other areas will be either dry or will see trace to 1 mm amounts of rain; highs 15 to 18 C. Some rain will develop off the southwest coast and may move inland late in the day.

TONIGHT will become wet across most of Munster, and later south Connacht and south Leinster. Overcast with a few breaks further north. Lows 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY will be overcast with rain with a few thunderstorms possible. Winds will be rather light in this system, but west coast counties may see some intervals of moderate northerly breezes 30-50 km/hr, in general highs will be near 16 C although some cooler air may be trapped under low cloud in the northern counties, a few locations could see readings near record low values for July daytime hours (12 to 14 C) where cloud persists. Any breaks in the overcast will allow temperatures to reach 17 or 18 C. Rainfalls of 15 to 30 mm are likely with heaviest amounts in the midlands, inland south and east.

WEDNESDAY some further rain early morning as the system pulls away slowly, winds turning northerly over all regions, and rain more showery by later morning into the afternoon. Lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

On THURSDAY, variable cloud and isolated showers, but some drier intervals with perhaps longer sunny intervals developing. Lows near 7 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

By FRIDAY, sunny intervals then partly cloudy, breezy with outbreaks of light rain in north and west by late in the day, lows near 10 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will become wet and breezy with some heavy showers and thunderstorms possible, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY cloudy with a few breaks, widespread scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

A similar regime will continue through the last week of July with near average temperatures and mixtures of dry days and occasional outbreaks of rain.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with increasing high cloud, and hot, quite dry, temperatures near 30 C and dew points near 10 C. We are expecting a passing front late Monday to bring some potentially heavy thunderstorms and the Calgary area of southern Alberta looks set for widespread severe storms with hail as our warm spell moves south briefly. We will be back to hot weather later in the week. Some locally very heavy rainfalls reported on Long Island east of NYC, Islip airport had over 100 mm and broke a daily record by a large margin. Not all areas of the northeastern U.S. are seeing heavy storms and total rainfalls range from 50 to 300 mm so far this month.