Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 19-07-2023 07:16AM

Wednesday, 19 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead will be rather close to average in all respects, although sunshine may run about 75 to 90 per cent of normal. Now that Tuesday's rain has fallen, the further rainfalls will amount to about 75 per cent of normal too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in north and east, with a few showers, rainfalls 2-4 mm. Further west and south, sunny with cloudy intervals with a slight risk of isolated showers. Moderate northerly breezes at times with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cool, lows 6 to 9 C.

On THURSDAY, variable cloud and isolated showers, some drier intervals with longer sunny intervals developing, and highs around 17 to 19 C.

By FRIDAY, sunny intervals then partly cloudy to overcast by mid-day and afternoon, breezy with outbreaks of light rain in north and west by afternoon, lows near 10 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will become wet and breezy with some heavy showers and thunderstorms possible, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Skies will be variable at times in the south and west, mostly cloudy in the north and east. Some intervals of strong westerly winds could develop across the south, 40-60 km/hr at times.

SUNDAY cloudy with a few breaks, widespread scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

A similar regime will continue through the last week of July with occasional outbreaks of rain. After some dry spells on Monday 24th, partly cloudy to overcast mid-week with occasional rain returning, temperatures rather cool with highs 15 to 18 C. A few somewhat warmer and drier days could follow at the end of the month and it looks a bit more plausible that August will turn considerably warmer and perhaps be more similar to this recent past June as the jet stream pushes a bit further north and reduces the overall cyclonic influence. No sign of blocking or hot southerly plumes but at least an improved form of this mobile weather pattern. More significant heat could develop mid to late August possibly.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and a bit cooler than previous days, with a very pleasant high near 24 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-07-2023 07:12AM

Thursday, 20 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain quite close to average, except perhaps sunshine which is likely to run a bit below average. Rainfall will not be excessive, and will be largely confined to late Friday, Saturday, showers on Sunday and a fairly weak system around next Wednesday. Temperatures will remain a bit depressed in the daytime hours and relatively mild at night for July.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring variable cloud, sunshine a bit more frequent in south and east, with isolated showers, mostly trace to 1 mm amounts, and highs around 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with patchy light rain in western counties, lows 8 to 11 C.

By FRIDAY, sunny intervals then partly cloudy to overcast by mid-day and afternoon, breezy with outbreaks of light rain in north and west by afternoon, and highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will become wet and breezy with some heavy showers and thunderstorms possible, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Skies will be variable at times in the south and west, mostly cloudy in the north and east. Some intervals of strong west-southwesterly winds could develop across the southern and central counties, 50-70 km/hr at times. Rainfalls 10-20 mm in most regions, 20-30 mm in parts of north Connacht and Ulster where daytime temperatures could be 15 or 16 C at times during the heavier rainfall.

SUNDAY cloudy with a few breaks, widespread scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Breezy to windy by afternoon, as a strong northerly gradient develops over Ireland. Winds northerly 40-60 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers and temperatures near average, 10 C at night and 18 to 21 C daytime hours.

By WEDNESDAY 26th, breezy with occasional rain, highs near 17 C.

From that point on, gradual improvement is possible as the jet stream slowly begins to lift further north, taking the most active portions of the frontal systems along with it. By early August temperatures could be a little warmer again, into the low 20s and perhaps even mid-20s.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and warm with highs near 28 C. Except for occasional smoke haze, this has been a rather average sort of summer here without extremes, and largely rain-free so far. In the eastern regions more frequent smoke, sometimes quite severe, and high humidity levels with scattered heavy rainfalls have made it less pleasant. Speaking of heavy rainfall, in 1942 at this time during July, local thunderstorms dropped as much as a year's worth of rainfall creating severe flooding. One location (Smethport, PA) had 30.6" of rain in just five hours (that would be over 780 mm of rain). The actual date of this event was July 18, 1942, between 0945h and 1400h local time. If you want to read more about it, just google the key words and you'll find a number of different accounts of this and other similar extreme U.S. rainfalls most of them over the Appalachian mountains. Smethport is located in north central PA near the NY state border about 150 miles southeast of Buffalo NY.

M.T. Cranium · 21-07-2023 06:59AM

Friday, 21 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain cool, cloudy and damp to wet at times. Saturday and Wednesday will be two rather wet days, Sunday and Monday more showery. Tuesday and possibly Thursday will be the driest days, although some places will remain dry today.

FORECASTS

TODAY, a few brighter intervals at first, with patchy light rain spreading into western counties and across Ulster, generally overcast by mid-day and afternoon, becoming breezy with outbreaks of light rain spreading further east, but amounts generally only 1-3 mm, with highs 16 to 19 C for most, but only 13 to 15 C in parts of Connacht and Ulster.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with outbreaks of heavy rain in some parts of the northern and central counties. Lows 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY will become wet and breezy with some heavy showers and thunderstorms possible, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Skies will be variable at times in the south and west, mostly cloudy in the north and east. Some intervals of strong west-southwesterly winds could develop across the southern and central counties, 50-70 km/hr at times. Rainfalls 10-20 mm in most regions, 20-30 mm in parts of north Connacht and Ulster where daytime temperatures could be 15 or 16 C at times during the heavier rainfall.

SUNDAY cloudy with a few breaks, widespread scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C. Breezy to windy by afternoon, as a moderate northerly gradient develops over Ireland. Winds northerly 40-60 km/hr by afternoon and evening. (For the Open golf event, these winds should hold off there, and the day will be showery, but the weather on Saturday will be similar to our forecast for Ireland above, with some bouts of rain and south to southwest winds).

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks further west, and showers possibly heavy over parts of Leinster, lows near 11 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few isolated showers and lows near 10 C, highs 18 to 20 C.

By WEDNESDAY 26th, breezy with occasional rain, highs near 17 C. This rain may turn heavy at times and could persist into the first part of Thursday with gradual clearing.

FRIDAY 28th will be overcast with rain late in the day, and the weekend of 29th-30th looks rather unsettled. A slow improving trend is expected to follow, and by about 3rd of August temperatures could finally recover to more summery levels into the low 20s and perhaps even mid-20s..

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and hot with the high near 35 C. It's always hot at this time of year in the desert southwest region but they are setting records day after day with highs closer to 48 C than the normal 45 C around Phoenix, and nights that are staying warmer than 32 C. This heat was in Texas earlier and is spreading back that way again now, but this summer, there is not much northward flow of the severe heat, and the northern tier of states are enjoying a relatively moderate July so far.

M.T. Cranium · 22-07-2023 06:51AM

Saturday, 22 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cool, quite wet, cloudy. As the mid-week system now looks stronger, rainfalls of 50 to 100 per cent above normal will occur in most regions, south coast may be closer to average. Temperatures fairly mild at night but below average for July in daytime hours. Not much sun except for brief appearances around Monday-Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, and brief dry intervals. Rain more persistent in north where 20-30 mm likely, and more showery in nature in the south, 10-20 mm there. Highs will reach 18 to 20 C except closer to 15 C in parts of Ulster and nearby border counties.

TONIGHT overcast with some fog and mist developing, occasional rain, still rather heavy at times in the north and east. Lows 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud in south, showers or isolated thunderstorms, highs 16 to 19 C. Overcast with periods of rain in north, highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY rain persisting to early morning then drizzle, mist in eastern counties, partial clearing further west, as winds become northerly 40 to 60 km/hr. Morning lows 12 to 14 C and afternoon highs only a little above that, 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry with some rain arriving in west by evening. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be wet with a two-part low pressure complex system moving in and bringing frequent intervals of rain, heavy at times, 20-40 mm possible. Temperatures steady in the range of 13 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will see a brief break before yet another front arrives, this one possibly quite windy as well as showery overnight into Saturday 29th. I feel like I am describing late October or November weather but the calendar says July. Friday's highs about 18-20 C, similar on Saturday 29th, breezy and clearing gradually on Sunday 30th.

The following week looks rather unsettled but a bit warmer as winds turn more southerly. This could bring temperatures up into the low 20s.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and hot, with a high of about 36 C. It remains sultry but clear at this late hour (21 C at 11 p.m. local time).

M.T. Cranium · 23-07-2023 06:40AM

Sunday, 23 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool and wet, although rainfalls only above normal in northern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with further rainfalls in northern counties, some showers further south in variable cloud. A cooler air mass will move gradually south across Leinster dropping temperatures after mid-day there from 17 C to around 13 C. Further west, some clearing may allow for sunny breaks and highs will be closer to 18 C. A further 10-15 mm of rain in parts of Ulster and nearby counties of Connacht and Leinster, becoming more showery by afternoon. Winds turning northerly 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, some mist or fog developing, drizzle or light rain, lows 10 to 12 C.

MONDAY rain persisting to early morning then drizzle, mist in eastern counties, partial clearing further west, as winds become northerly 40 to 60 km/hr with highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry with some rain arriving in west by evening. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy with outbreaks of rain, humid, blustery south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, westerly 40-70 km/hr, showers, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY mostly cloudy, breezy to windy especially near northwest coasts, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

A fairly bland weather pattern seems to be setting up towards next weekend and into early August, with temperatures perhaps a bit higher than we have been used to seeing this past month.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and hot with a high close to 35 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-07-2023 07:48AM

Monday, 24 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool and wet, although rainfalls only above normal in northern counties. There will be a bit of a break from the rain today and tomorrow in general, but it will resume Tuesday night and become fairly persistent to the weekend. Next week looks somewhat improved.

FORECASTS

TODAY some patchy drizzle or light rain, mostly in eastern counties, with a mixture of cloud and sunshine in moderate northerly breezes of 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 6 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry with some rain arriving in west by evening. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy with outbreaks of rain, humid, blustery south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, westerly 40-70 km/hr, showers, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY mostly cloudy, breezy to windy especially near northwest coasts, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

WEEKEND rather cloudy, occasional showers, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 9 to 12 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

A fairly bland weather pattern seems to be setting up towards next weekend and into early August, with temperatures perhaps a bit higher than we have been used to seeing this past month, if not similar, 18 to 21 C. Winds will continue westerly to northwesterly.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and hot again with a high close to 36 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-07-2023 06:32AM

Tuesday, 25 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool to near normal for temperatures and rather wet, although rainfalls only above normal in some western counties. Next week (now 1-7 Aug) looks slightly improved.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy. mainly overcast by afternoon, and generally dry with some rain arriving in west by evening, highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT rain at times, moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 11 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy with outbreaks of rain, humid, blustery south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, and highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy to windy, westerly 40-70 km/hr, showers, lows 10 to 12 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY mostly cloudy, breezy to windy especially near northwest coasts where winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY rather cloudy, occasional showers, moderate westerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 9 to 12 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, rain at times, becoming heavier by late in the day, lows 12 to 15 C, highs 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy, rain during the overnight hours and into part of the morning, gradual clearing by afternoon, lows 12 to 14 C and highs around 18 C.

The first few days of August will continue rather cloudy but with only small amounts of rain and some brighter intervals. Temperatures will remain in the range of 17 to 20 C. It may warm up a bit after that as we approach the weekend of 5-6 August.

My local weather on Monday remained very warm (near 32 C) with increasing cloud but a dry frontal passage with gusty winds from the south to southwest. Now waiting for a stronger second cold front which looks capable of producing some storms during the late overnight into Tuesday morning, and a welcome cooling trend. By the way, the season's first hurricane (Don) formed well to the south of Newfoundland and is slowly circling around towards the northeast, but it will totally die out before its remnants reach the eastern Atlantic around next weekend. Because the National Hurricane Centre later designated a January storm as an un-named tropical storm, Don is actually the fifth storm of 2023. It's the only one to reach hurricane intensity so far.

M.T. Cranium · 26-07-2023 07:09AM

Wednesday, 26 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures close to average for late July, rainfall rather heavy in western counties, near normal elsewhere, and quite cloudy in general.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, humid, with outbreaks of light rain slowly spreading further east. Heavier bursts of rain in some western coastal counties later, otherwise only about 3-5 mm expected. Winds southwest 40-60 km/hr and highs near 17 or 18 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, occasional showers, winds west-southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY partly to mostly cloudy, passing showers but some locations mostly dry, highs 17-19 C. Winds westerly backing to southerly late in the day, 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY cloudy, feeling muggy, with outbreaks of light rain at times, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr. Some mist or fog on hills in north. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

SATURDAY becoming windy especially in parts of Connacht and west Ulster where gusts to 90 km/hr possible (from southwest), elsewhere 50-70 km/hr. Occasional rain but some dry intervals, with variably cloudy skies. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY breezy, mostly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY rain at times, possibly heavy over southern and western counties, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

The pattern shows little signs of changing rapidly but warmer air seems to be creeping into the mix during early August and this could set off some more volatile thundery showers with any future weather systems then. Also a slowly improving trend seems likely for the general weather picture moving further into August.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, passing showers in the general vicinity but no measurable rain within several kms of my location. Quite windy at times as a diffuse cold front was passing. Hot weather is now on the move towards central and later eastern North America but we'll be back into the heat fairly soon after a couple of cooler days (24 C on Tuesday). New York City has only reached 34 C so far this summer but may hit the high 30s briefly by this weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 27-07-2023 07:18AM

Thursday, 27 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead, somewhat warmer than average mostly because of cloudy and mild nights. Rainfalls close to average with a few places in western counties a bit above normal. Remaining rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few outbreaks of drizzle or spotty showers, little rainfall accumulation is expected. Moderate westerly breezes and highs around 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT overcast with some patchy light rain, mist and fog, mild with lows 12 to 15 C.

FRIDAY cloudy, feeling muggy, with outbreaks of light rain at times, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr. Some mist or fog on hills in north, highs 17 to 19 C.

SATURDAY becoming windy especially in parts of Connacht and west Ulster where gusts to 90 km/hr possible (from southwest), elsewhere 50-70 km/hr. Occasional rain but some dry intervals, with variably cloudy skies. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C. Outbreaks of heavier rain likely across the south by Saturday night.

SUNDAY breezy to windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr in some exposed areas, 40-60 km/hr more generally), mostly cloudy, rain tapering off to a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY rain at times, possibly heavy over southern and western counties, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Becoming quite windy by the overnight hours, southwest to west 50-80 km/hr, possibly some higher gusts.

TUESDAY (1st of August) some outbreaks of heavy rain early to mid-day across west and north, possibly unseasonably windy at times (westerly 70 to 90 km/hr). Watch for updates on regional details and timing closer to this event.

The rest of the week will be rather cool and mostly cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds, highs 15 to 18 C. A slow warming trend is likely starting around weekend of 4th-5th August and winds will turn more southerly; it may remain rather unsettled but rainfall will be more confined to Atlantic coastal counties.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny with a pleasant high of about 24 C. As you've no doubt heard on the news, severe heat has spread into many parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean regions; readings moderated a bit yesterday after peaking in the 45-50 C range on Tuesday. Tunisia, Sicily, Greece and western Turkey were worst affected. This summer has not been as extreme as some recent years further north or in Spain. The reason for this unusual heat is mainly due to the depressed jet stream over the Atlantic, forcing the superheated Saharan air masses to travel northeast across the Mediterranean. A similar pattern exists over the southern U.S. confining severe heat mainly to southern states this summer. A brief hotter spell is now developing further north, but it will likely only last a couple of days.

M.T. Cranium · 28-07-2023 07:13AM

Friday, 28 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead, somewhat warmer than average mostly because of cloudy and mild nights. Rainfalls close to average with a few places in western counties a bit above normal. Remaining rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, feeling muggy, with outbreaks of light rain at times, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr. Some mist or fog on hills in north, highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT overcast with some patchy light rain, mist and fog, mild and breezy with lows 12 to 15 C.

SATURDAY breezy to windy especially in parts of Connacht and west Ulster where gusts to 80 km/hr possible (from southwest), elsewhere 40-60 km/hr. Occasional rain but some dry intervals, with variably cloudy skies. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C. Outbreaks of heavier rain likely across the south by Saturday night.

SUNDAY breezy to windy (westerly 50-80 km/hr in some exposed areas, 40-60 km/hr more generally), mostly cloudy, rain tapering off to a few showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY rain at times, possibly heavy over southern and western counties, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Becoming quite windy by the overnight hours, southwest to west 50-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY (1st of August) some outbreaks of heavy rain early to mid-day, windy at times (westerly 60 to 80 km/hr). This currently looks more moderate than on yesterday's guidance, but watch for updates on regional details and timing closer to this event in case it flares up again.

The rest of the week to Friday 4th of August will be rather cool and mostly cloudy with moderate west to northwest winds, highs 15 to 18 C. A slow warming trend is likely starting around weekend of 5th-6th August and winds will turn more southerly; it may remain rather unsettled but rainfall will be more confined to Atlantic coastal counties. One or two partly cloudy to sunny days are possible in the mix, as well as overcast days.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with overcast skies at times by afternoon, showers taking on the form of "virga" where rain can be seen evaporating above the surface. It was around 25 C. More intense heat has finally reached the east coast, one of the airports near Washington DC hit 98F (37C). Today will also be quite hot in eastern regions then a gradual cooling trend with heavy thunderstorms possible on the weekend in NYC and other parts of the northeastern U.S. region. Severe heat waves in Arizona and also the central Mediterranean saw a bit of moderation on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 29-07-2023 07:19AM

Saturday, 29 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... temperatures generally near normal but relatively cool daytime hours and mild nights due to a mostly cloudy regime, rainfall 25 to 50 per cent above normal, Sunday and mid-week will see most of this. Sunshine only 50 to 75 per cent of average, instead of the normal 5-6 hours a day, closer to 3-4.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, and a few sunny breaks. More frequent showers likely by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster. Moderate west-southwest breezes 40-60 km/hr, highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will continue unsettled with intervals of rain spreading into western counties, lows 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy to windy, with intervals of rain turning quite heavy in western counties, later spreading across most central regions, 15 to 25 mm potential; highs 16 to 18 C, winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.

MONDAY will continue unsettled with a few showers, moderate westerly winds, and lows near 12 C, highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, breezy at first, then a slack pressure gradient as low pressure gradually deepens off the south coast. Rain by evening and overnight in south. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, showers and isolated thunderstorms, cool in northerly breezes 30 to 50 km/hr. If your travels take you across to Britain expect a lot of rain, cool temperatures and locally strong winds as the low mentioned for Tuesday moves across southern England. In Ireland it won't be as bad, on current guidance, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C, but some places closer to the low could remain in a very chilly northeast wind flow of 12 to 14 C.

By Thursday and Friday, drier weather from a transient weak ridge but winds from the northwest will keep it rather cool for early August, lows around 8 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

Another rather active weather system looks probable for the weekend of 5-6 August, windy with outbreaks of rain and near 17 C.

Somewhat improving weather may follow as higher pressure plays more of a role, possibly a mixture of dry and unsettled days on a 2-3 day alternating schedule. My hunch is that the weather will improve more or less steadily through August and September may be more similar to June.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with a high near 27 C. It was once again near 37 C in parts of the eastern U.S. but storms are brewing and it will turn cooler there during the day.

M.T. Cranium · 30-07-2023 06:33AM

Sunday, 30 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the coming week, temperatures near average, rainfall 25 to 50 per cent above normal, heaviest in central counties, and sunshine rather infrequent, 50 to 75 per cent of normal. Signs of a definite improvement by mid-August.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times in western then central counties. Potential for 15-25 mm of rain, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr quite gusty at times near coasts; highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will remain overcast with some rain at times, lows near 11 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, showers and longer intervals of rain, moderate southwest to west winds, highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY outbreaks of rain spreading across southern and central counties in morning, partial clearing cool and breezy later in the day as winds turn northerly 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY partly cloudy, breezy (winds northwest 40-60 km/hr), cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY 5th August likely to see a few showers, variable winds, then SUNDAY 6th, northerly breezes resume. Temperatures will stay a bit below average.

A gradual warming trend is foreseen after that, and by mid-August it could be quite warm again like it was in June. Guidance begins to show temperatures into the mid-20s for the first time since then.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly sunny and very warm, around 30 C at our elevation and 35 C in the lower Columbia valley. We are going to have a hot, dry week. As expected, some intense storms formed in eastern regions, considerable wind damage around parts of Washington DC with reports of 80 mph gusts, but cooling down from earlier highs above 35 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-07-2023 07:02AM

Monday, 31 July, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be fairly close to average for temperature and rainfall, and below normal for sunshine. It's still looking quite improved by about a week to ten days from now.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with showers and longer intervals of rain, fairly light amounts expected, 3-5 mm at most in some central counties, and moderate southwest to west winds, highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy, overcast with some spotty rain at times, lows near 11 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, showers, heavier and more persistent rain later spreading into western and then northern counties, and highs near 17 C. Quite breezy to windy at times Tuesday night, winds southeast to south 50-70 km/hr near south coast as low pressure approaches. Moderate east winds will develop late overnight further north.

WEDNESDAY outbreaks of rain spreading across most regions in the morning, partial clearing, cool and breezy later in the day as winds turn northerly 40-60 km/hr. Some patchy light rain in the afternoon most likely near east, north and northwest coasts and hills. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C except 18-20 C briefly in south coast counties as low tracks just north of them for a time.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY partly cloudy, breezy (winds northwest 40-60 km/hr), cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY is likely to see a few showers, heaviest across some parts of the inland south, and variable winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY 6th, northerly breezes resume. Temperatures will stay a bit below average, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

A gradual warming trend is foreseen after that, and by about 9th-10th August it could be quite warm again like it was in June. Guidance begins to show temperatures into the mid-20s for the first time since then and high 20s in Britain. Not too clear whether this change will hold for weeks later or just become a brief transient spike of warmth.

My local weather stayed sunny, very warm and breezy with a high near 30 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-08-2023 06:31AM

Tuesday, 1 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1-7 Aug ... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, rainfall will be about 25 to 50 per cent above normal (mostly confined to two days, Wednesday and Saturday), and sunshine will be about 75 per cent of average but at least there will be some sun on a few days. A much improved trend is foreseen after this week ends.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Rain will be spotty at first but will begin to cover most western counties by afternoon and then spread further inland overnight; highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT rain will become rather windy in some parts of the south (southeast to south 40-60 km/hr), as rain spreads further east. A total of 10-15 mm rain is likely in most places by morning. Later in the night moderate east winds are likely in Ulster and some northern counties of Connacht and Leinster. Lows 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY outbreaks of rain, some heavy at times, will spread across most regions in the morning, partial clearing, cool and breezy later in the day as winds turn northerly 40-60 km/hr. Some patchy light rain in the afternoon most likely near east, north and northwest coasts and hills. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C except 18-20 C briefly in south coast counties as low tracks just north of them for a time. Feeling rather chilly for time of year in some parts of the east and north.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with a few showers in moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. Rain by evening in western counties.

SATURDAY will see a return to wet conditions, and briefly quite windy as well, with low pressure set to track in from the northwest. About 20 mm of rain may fall in many areas, winds backing southeast to northeast 40-60 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near east coast. Partial clearing from afternoon near Atlantic coasts, to quite late in the day in Leinster. Lows near 9 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will become moderate to strong northerly by evening as the low pulls away into southern England.

SUNDAY will begin to clear in the morning, then cloud will build up mid-day and afternoon, and showers will be isolated at first although briefly widespread again by mid-afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C. Moderate northwest breezes at times.

MONDAY partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

An improving weather trend seems likely as the jet stream begins to push north and fill the trough that has dampened July's weather (and the first few days of August). Some of the heat that was affecting south central Europe will now find it easier to make some northward progress into Spain and southern France. Although there are no definite signs of anything hotter than mid 20s in Britain and Ireland by mid-August, we'll need to keep an eye on any potential for larger reversals because globally we seem to be in the mature phase of a large-scale response to the water vapour eruption in Tonga a year or so back, and so any warm portions of the atmosphere are subject to abnormally high readings (over and above the background trend of "modern warming"). This cool trough situation may be a blessing in disguise in some ways even if its attendant weather is a bit of a shocker for mid-summer.

My local weather remains on the hot side, with sunshine and highs around 36 C on Monday and expected each day to late in the week.

M.T. Cranium · 02-08-2023 07:21AM

Wednesday, 2 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2-8 Aug ... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, rainfall will be about 25 per cent above normal (mostly confined to two days, today and Saturday), and sunshine will be about 75 per cent of average but at least there will be some sun on a few days. An improving trend is foreseen after the end of this interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY some further outbreaks of rain, some heavy at times in north-central counties, with a few brighter intervals mainly in south-central counties. Winds will be east to northeast, backing to northerly 30-50 km/hr. By afternoon, partial clearing except for more persistent cloud in parts of the southeast, cool and breezy later in the day as winds turn northerly 40-60 km/hr. Some patchy light rain in the afternoon most likely near east, north and northwest coasts and hills; highs near 15 C except near 18 C briefly in south coast counties as low tracks just north of them for a time this morning. Feeling rather chilly for time of year in some parts of the east and north.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, cool northerly winds, occasional light rain or drizzle in some places, lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with a few showers in moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY sunny intervals, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C. Rain by evening in western counties.

SATURDAY will see a return to wet conditions, and briefly quite windy as well, with low pressure set to track in from the northwest. About 20 mm of rain may fall in many areas, especially north-central counties, with winds backing southeast to northeast 40-60 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near east coast. Partial clearing from afternoon near Atlantic coasts, to quite late in the day in Leinster. Lows near 9 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will become moderate to strong northerly by evening as the low pulls away into southern England. Some continued squally showers in this west-northwest flow overnight into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY will begin to clear in the morning, then cloud will build up mid-day and afternoon, and showers will be isolated at first although briefly widespread again by mid-afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C. Moderate northwest breezes at times.

MONDAY partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

Somewhat improved weather will set in for a few days next week. It remains a bit unclear as to how long this improvement will last. A few days with at least some sunshine and highs of 19 to 23 C will develop, and there is some potential for readings to go a bit higher as is already expected for parts of Britain, around 9th to 11th.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot with highs near 34 C. It is a bit hazy from smoke layers aloft; the closest significant fire is about 150 km west of here near Osoyoos, BC on the international border. Another persistent fire is about the same distance east of us near Cranbrook.

M.T. Cranium · 03-08-2023 07:20AM

Thursday, 3 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3-9 Aug ... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, rainfall will be near to about 25 per cent above normal (mostly confined to two days, Saturday and possibly Monday in south), and sunshine will be about 75 per cent of average but at least there will be some sun on a few days. An improving trend is foreseen after the end of this interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and cool with a few showers in moderate northwest winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C. Somewhat brighter for most by afternoon.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear spells, take note of a very low full moon (waning phase just setting in) and bright Jupiter rising after midnight, fairly prominent Saturn closer to the moon -- cool with lows 6 to 8 C.

FRIDAY sunny intervals, and highs near 19 C. Cloudy by afternoon and rain moving in by late afternoon, evening in western counties.

SATURDAY will see a return to wet conditions, and briefly quite windy as well, with low pressure set to track in from the northwest. About 20 mm of rain may fall in many areas, especially north-central counties, with winds backing southeast to northeast 40-60 km/hr and possibly higher gusts near east coast. Partial clearing from early afternoon near Atlantic coasts, to quite late in the afternoon or evening in Leinster. Lows 9 to 12 C and highs 14 to 16 C. Winds will become moderate to strong northerly by evening as the low pulls away into southern England. Some continued squally showers in this west-northwest flow overnight into Sunday morning.

SUNDAY will begin to clear in the morning, then cloud will build up mid-day and afternoon, and showers will be isolated at first although briefly widespread again by mid-afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C. Moderate northwest breezes at times.

MONDAY partly cloudy with isolated showers, some rain spreading into Munster although this system appears weak and could end up largely off the coast, uncertainty in the outlook on this system ... lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C (temps near 15 C during any intervals of steady rain in south).

Somewhat improved weather will set in for a few days later next week. It remains unclear as to how long this improvement will last. A few days with at least some sunshine and highs of 19 to 23 C will develop, and there is some potential for readings to go a bit higher as is already expected for parts of Britain, around 9th to 11th. Very warm air may move up through France during the period 8th-9th and may reach Britain and even some parts of southeast Ireland. We'll know more details by later this coming weekend.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and hot with highs near 35 C. It remains a bit hazy from smoke layers aloft; the closest fires I mentioned yesterday are being successfully fought but some new ones are erupting further west in the Coast Ranges north of Vancouver. The local climate is often hot and dry from mid-July to mid-August but we were already in a drought situation from May and June, so this normal dry spell is slowly worsening the outlook. Severe heat backed off for a few days in the desert southwest region but is returning now.

M.T. Cranium · 04-08-2023 07:00AM

Friday, 4 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue cool, wet and cloudy, with significant wind speeds added to the dire outlook for Saturday. Things will slowly start improving next week at least.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out pleasant with some sunny breaks and light winds. Cloud will increase mid-day and rain will follow reaching the west coast mid-afternoon and spreading through other regions during the evening. Becoming rather windy near south and west coasts by late in the day, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will become very windy at times as low pressure moves through the central and southeast regions. South of its track, strong south to southwest winds will veer to northwest late tonight, 50-80 km/hr. North of the track, easterly winds 40-60 km/hr will back around to northerly 50 to 80 km/hr. Some heavy rain and possibly an embedded thunderstorm could bring 15-25 mm of rain by morning, locally 25-35 mm (by noon if not entirely overnight). These conditions given the saturated ground could bring down trees in some exposed locations, create other wind damage, and lead to minor flooding due to small stream or saturated field overflows. Lows 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will start out with strong winds and (in eastern counties mainly) heavy rain, then this unseasonable stormy weather will gradually ease after about 1100h to early afternoon from west to east, but moderation may be gradual, with winds continuing gusty from the northwest to north at 40-70 km/hr even when it does start to clear partially in the afternoon. Rain will taper off to showers and then skies will become variably cloudy with a few bands of showers likely to continue; highs 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds at times. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, except overcast in Munster, rain at times near south coast spreading into Munster and some parts of midlands, south Leinster. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY rain spreading further north as a second disturbance moves in from the southwest. Turning rather warm and humid across the south. Risk of heavy rainfalls in Connacht, north midlands, Ulster. Lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C south, 15 C north.

WEDNESDAY to WEEKEND of 12th-13th will become warmer and rather humid, with a few outbreaks of showery rain or local thunderstorms in a southerly wind flow. Temperatures will be around 15 C at night and 21 C in daytime hours, except for a few locations subject to cooling sea breezes in southeast wind flow. As it may be warming up to mid or even high 20s in Britain, there will be (a) potential for heavy thunderstorms to form at times, and (b) some chance of warmer temperatures into the mid-20s by weekend of 12th-13th if not before. Even so, Ireland may stay in a more transitional air mass between that heat and the cooler air masses we've been tracking (and will stay in for a few more days yet).

Very uncertain how long this warmer spell could last, as some signs of blocking associated and this is a difficult challenge for computer models past about seven days.

My local weather stays hot and sunny, with smoke layers visible at sunset to west of our region. The highs on Thursday were around 32-35 C. Nights are quite balmy with only a bit of relief from heat although pleasant to be outside sky watching.

I may issue a late afternoon update with breaking details on the approaching wind and rain event.

M.T. Cranium · 04-08-2023 07:32PM

Update _ Friday, 4 Aug, 2023 _ 7:30 p.m.

Latest on storm "Antoni" as named by UK Met Office earlier.

Track of low pressure will run from around Galway to south Wicklow or Wexford, overland from about 0100h to 0700h. Counties north of this track will see the heaviest rainfalls of 20-30 mm mostly from about 11 p.m. to 8 or 9 a.m., and winds will tend to start out easterly, backing to NE then N as the low moves past. In parts of the southeast notably south Wicklow, Wexford and Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny, expect an interval around 0600-0700h Saturday morning to be nearly calm as the low tracks overhead, followed rather abruptly by gale force N-NE winds that could be briefly in the 70-110 km/hr range. This is an unusual direction for strong winds which might be a factor in causing tree damage locally.

Further west (around Cork and Kerry) the onset of stronger winds will be more gradual as the gradient increases through the overnight hours. Being south of the track, winds will begin southwest 40-60 km/hr, veer westerly then around to about NNW or due north at 50-80 km/hr by 0600h peaking around then and slowly moderating later in the morning. This would also be the expected pattern for most areas south of Galway but with perhaps less notable wind speeds (30-50 increasing to 40-70). I noticed Limerick had been left out of extensive county warnings probably because all factors considered the wind speeds there would not be as strong as surrounding areas but it may be a fairly subtle difference so I wouldn't say Limerick residents should expect much different outcomes from north Cork or south Clare.

In all regions there will be a steady moderation of conditions after mid-day, if you were hoping to get out to do anything (other than storm watching), late afternoon or evening might prove to be the best time.

M.T. Cranium · 05-08-2023 07:26AM

Saturday, 5 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... given that most of today's rain has now fallen, if we exclude that the further rainfalls will be near average in some parts of the west, and below average by up to 50% in the east (but counting today's earlier rain, the stats including today will be twice normal values in the east). There will not be much sunshine but a few hours each day in some parts of the country. Temperatures will turn much warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking by Thursday at 5 deg above normal, then falling back closer to average on Friday. The overall departure given a cool start will be around +1 or +2.

FORECASTS

Alert for strong and possibly damaging wind gusts in parts of the south and east now to 1100h, northerly winds 70-110 km/hr expected. Further west 60-90 km/hr could still cause some tree damage in places too. Alert for local flooding as aftermath of 35 mm rainfalls already recorded in central Leinster. This is also likely to occur before 1100h but alert extends to mid-afternoon for potential longer cycle stream disruptions around Dublin mountains. Mudslides are possible in some higher terrain.

TODAY will become very windy with strong north to northeast winds developing in the next hour or two in the southeast, expect winds briefly peaking around 70-110 km/hr, gradually moderating late morning and afternoon hours; other regions are already quite windy and will remain at 50-80 km/hr to mid-day, moderating to north-northwest 40-60 km/hr by afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy but with a few breaks developing at least in some central and western counties. Rainfalls which totalled 25-35 mm overnight will soon taper off to drizzle or light showers and there will continue to be a few showers especially in Leinster. Cool for time of year with highs 15 or 16 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy with clear intervals, isolated showers, lows near 8 C. Winds gradually moderating further and becoming northwest 20 to 40 km/hr.

SUNDAY variable cloud, a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds at times. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, except mostly cloudy in Munster, rain at times near south coast by afternoon, spreading into Munster and some parts of midlands, south Leinster overnight into Tuesday. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY rain spreading further north, some heavy bursts possible in Connacht, as a complex frontal disturbance moves in from the southwest. Turning rather warm and humid across the south. Risk of heavy rainfalls in Connacht, north midlands, Ulster. Lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C south, 17 C north. Fog in higher parts of north-central counties by afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, very warm and humid, winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs 22 to 25 C.

THURSDAY continued very warm, showers and thunderstorms, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 18 C and highs near 24 C.

FRIDAY windy with passing showers, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Winds west-southwest 50-80 km/hr.

SATURDAY 12th and SUNDAY 13th may prove to be a fairly good weekend for a change but it's a bit early to make this a headline, so we'll go with partly cloudy, isolated showers possible, highs 20 to 23 C.

Another disturbance is currently timed for MONDAY 14th with rain and gusty southwest to west winds, highs near 19 C.

The following week seems likely to be unsettled and variable with temperatures generally near mid-August normals (lows 12-15 C, highs 18-21 C).

My local weather became hazy from smoke from forest fires about 100 km east of here in the Selkirk Mountains on the international border. That being uninhabited wilderness country, it seems unlikely that much effort will go into fighting these fires unless they start spreading, partly because heavy rainfalls are foreseen in that region by Tuesday. We may get some rain then also, but this current regime will continue for a few more days, hopefully with less smoke haze. It was hot despite the cloud and smoke, at about 32 C, and the cloud is keeping it quite warm overnight (21 C here now at 11:30 p.m.).

M.T. Cranium · 06-08-2023 06:47AM

Sunday, 6 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS are now shifting to warmer with at least some sunny breaks most days. Rainfall will vary from rather heavy in western counties to about half of normal values in the east. Temperatures could average as much as 3-4 deg above normal eventually but the first two days of this coming week will be close to average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, heavier and more persistent in Ulster. Winds moderate west to northwest 30-50 km/hr. The afternoon highs will range from 15 C in the north to 19 C in the south.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, except mostly cloudy in Munster, rain at times near south coast by afternoon, spreading into Munster and some parts of midlands, south Leinster overnight into Tuesday, highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY rain spreading further north, some heavy bursts possible in Connacht, as a complex frontal disturbance moves in from the southwest. Turning rather warm and humid across the south. Risk of heavy rainfalls in Connacht, north midlands, Ulster. Lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C south, 17 C north. Fog in higher parts of north-central counties by afternoon and evening. About 10-15 mm rain likely in west and some central, northern counties.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, very warm and humid, winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs 22 to 25 C. Generally dry with some sunshine, but a chance of isolated showers mostly over west-central counties.

THURSDAY continued very warm, showers and risk of thunderstorms, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows 15 to 18 C and highs 22 to 25 C.

FRIDAY windy with passing showers, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Winds west-southwest 50-80 km/hr.

WEEKEND of 12th-13th looks a bit unsettled but generally dry, partly cloudy to overcast with sunny breaks more frequent in south, moderate southwest to west winds, temperatures around 18-20 C both days.

MONDAY 14th currently looks quite warm and humid with the chance of heavy rainfalls in western counties, as warm air moves back in from the south. There are some indications this will lead to several warm days to follow, with further outbreaks of rain in western counties closer to a frontal zone setting up just to the west of Ireland. Britain and some parts of southeast Ireland may turn very warm or even hot locally, into the 25 to 30 C range. A more unsettled and cooler interval may follow this warm spell towards the weekend of 19th-20th.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy, with smoky haze at times, and very warm, highs near 30 C. Overcast with spits of rain this evening and forecasts turning more unsettled with thunderstorms expected at times here for several days. It will stay warm but not as hot as the past week.

M.T. Cranium · 07-08-2023 07:05AM

Monday, 7 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Aug ... temperatures about 2-3 deg above normal, rainfall near normal in west to about half of normal weekly amounts in east ... sunshine fairly close to average (which is now around 4 to 4.5 hours daily).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy, except mostly cloudy in Munster, Connacht, west Ulster, with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle mostly confined to western and northern counties, amounts generally 1-3 mm, and highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT occasional light rain or drizzle, fog or mist over hilly portions of western counties, lows 11 to 13 C.

TUESDAY rain spreading further north, some heavy bursts possible in Connacht, as a warm front moves in from the southwest. Turning rather warm and humid across the south. Risk of localized heavy rainfalls in Connacht, north midlands, Ulster but only small amounts of rain in most other regions; highs near 21 C south, 17 C north. Fog in higher parts of north-central counties by afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, very warm and humid, winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs 22 to 25 C. Generally dry with some sunshine, but a chance of isolated showers mostly over west-central counties.

THURSDAY continued very warm, showers and risk of thunderstorms by afternoon and evening, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows 15 to 18 C and highs 22 to 25 C.

FRIDAY windy with passing showers, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Winds west-southwest 50-70 km/hr.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers developing later in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY showers and thunderstorms, then clearing, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY 14th variable cloud, generally dry, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY 15th into WEDNESDAY 16th could be quite unsettled again with potential for some heavier rainfalls. Lows near 15 C and highs 19-21 C.

The weather pattern for the second half of August currently appears rather warm and somewhat unsettled at times although rainfall potential appears near normal so far.

My local weather on Sunday was hazy, warm and humid with highs of about 28 C. We have not seen any rain yet despite some minor buildups of towering cumulus all around the region. Eventually this will gain more intensity and we are expecting some thunderstorms to develop each day for the next few days.

M.T. Cranium · 08-08-2023 06:56AM

Tuesday, 8 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... warmer, 2-3 deg above normal; generally dry in east, 50 to 75 per cent of normal rainfall in west and parts of north, sunshine near normal, possibly even above in some eastern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, these mainly in Leinster and Ulster. Some drizzle and low cloud at times in southwest and by later afternoon further north. Turning warmer and more humid, highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT cloudy or misty, some clear intervals in east and north, mild, lows 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy, very warm and humid, winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 14 C and highs 22 to 25 C. Generally dry with some sunshine, but a chance of isolated showers mostly over west-central counties.

THURSDAY continued very warm, showers and risk of thunderstorms by afternoon and evening, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows 15 to 18 C and highs 22 to 25 C, warmest in east and north. Isolated heavy thunderstorms are possible in the midlands around late afternoon.

FRIDAY windy with passing showers, partly cloudy to overcast at times, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Winds west-southwest 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-15 mm in parts of northwest, otherwise 3-7 mm generally.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers at times, heavier later in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY isolated showers and thunderstorms with some sunny intervals, clearing by evening, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY 14th variable cloud, generally dry but some passing showers in a light northerly breeze over eastern counties, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY 15th to weekend of 19th-20th will be an unsettled period with daily passing showers likely, but temperatures around average for mid-August. Another warmer spell is being suggested by model guidance for the following week, as temperatures then recover to the low or mid 20s.

My local weather featured a brief heavy downpour around 0900h which was the first rain here in quite a while, then mostly cloudy with a few brief glimpses of sunshine, no further rain in the vicinity despite an active radar over southern BC, and a good chance of heavier storm activity for the next two days. It felt rather warm despite a drop in temperature to around 24 C for the high.

M.T. Cranium · 09-08-2023 07:15AM

Wednesday, 9 August, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... warmer, 2-3 deg above normal; generally dry in east, 50 to 75 per cent of normal rainfall in west and parts of north, sunshine near normal, possibly even above in some eastern counties.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy, very warm sunny spells and humid, winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr. Some more persistent low cloud or sea fog may be found near south coast; highs 22 to 25 C except closer to 20 C near some coasts. Chance of isolated showers mostly over west-central counties.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, warm, some mist or fog near coasts, lows 14 to 18 C.

THURSDAY continued very warm, showers and risk of thunderstorms by afternoon and evening, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows 14 to 18 C and highs 22 to 25 C, warmest in east and north. Isolated heavy thunderstorms are possible in the midlands around late afternoon.

FRIDAY windy with passing showers, partly cloudy to overcast at times, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C. Winds west-southwest 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-15 mm in parts of northwest, otherwise 3-7 mm generally.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers at times, heavier later in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY showers and thunderstorms with some sunny intervals, clearing by evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY 14th variable cloud, generally dry but some passing showers in a light northerly breeze over eastern counties, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

From WEDNESDAY 16th on, guidance has been quite volatile with some model runs showing quite warm weather, others backing off to an earlier scenario of near average temperatures and unsettled rather wet conditions. Either outcome seems about equally possible to me and I would say a likely compromise would be slightly warmer with showers at times during the week of 16th to 22nd.

My local weather remained cloudy and humid with a high near 24 C. Despite a lot of activity on the radar there was no measurable rainfall here but it was raining heavily just a few miles to the east for several hours. A more widespread outbreak of thunderstorms is developing for later today (Wed 9th).

M.T. Cranium · 10-08-2023 06:19AM

Thursday, 10 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain warm (1-3 deg above normal values, trending closer to average later in period) and relatively dry, rainfall about 25% of normal in east to 75% in west. Some sunshine most days will amount to near average or even slightly above by 25%.

FORECASTS

TODAY continued very warm, showers and risk of thunderstorms by afternoon and evening, winds increasing to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows 14 to 18 C and highs 22 to 25 C, warmest in east and north. Isolated heavy thunderstorms are possible in the midlands around late afternoon.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, passing showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 14 C.

FRIDAY breezy to windy with passing showers, partly cloudy to overcast at times, fresher with lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 22 C, warmest near east coast. Winds west-southwest 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls 10-15 mm in parts of northwest, otherwise 3-7 mm generally.

SATURDAY variable cloud, showers at times, heavier later in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY showers and isolated thunderstorms with some sunny intervals, clearing by evening, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY 14th variable cloud, generally dry but some passing showers in a light northerly breeze over eastern counties, lows near 11 C and highs near 18 C. More sunshine likely in western counties.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, a little warmer, lows near 11 C and highs near 22 C.

From next Thursday (17th) on, quite warm in a southerly flow as significant heat builds up over France and spreads into England; some of this heat may find its way into parts of the south and east of Ireland too bringing temperatures up to mid-20s, but there will be a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms from fronts rotating around low pressure almost stationary to west of Ireland, and this could prevent the same degree of heat that is expected for parts of southern England (28-32 C).

My local weather featured a heavy shower around 0800h, variable cloud and warm with a few sunny breaks to late afternoon, and a thunderstorm with a few bursts of moderate rain moving through around 5 to 7 p.m., with a total of perhaps 10 mm of rain, and highs near 25 C. Starting to clear up and dry out now and 14 C at 10:30 p.m..

M.T. Cranium · 11-08-2023 07:41AM

Friday, 11 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... Temperatures closer to normal values for several days, but warming up again by about Thursday of next week. Rainfalls about half to three quarters of normal values. Sunshine near average or slightly above.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to begin in most counties as showers begin to develop over Connacht this morning. The more persistent rain that results will spread across northern counties in general, with a more hit-or-miss shower regime further south. Chance of isolated thunderstorms inland north and midlands; highs 19 to 22 C east and north, 17 to 19 C south and west. Moderate southwest winds occasionally stronger near coasts (50-70 km/hr).

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, totals of 10-15 mm including today, in northern counties, 5-10 mm elsewhere. Breezy, lows near 11 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional showers or intervals of rain, cooler; highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms in central counties. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY will also be partly cloudy with showers, one or two heavier in eastern counties, as western regions begin to clear. Lows near 8 C, highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud after sunshine at first, rain by evening and overnight, lows near 7 C and highs near 20 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY (20th) warmer again, but with occasional passing showers or thunderstorms, highs 22 to 25 C.

My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals, and warm with a high near 29 C. Some parts of eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. are getting heavy thunderstorm rainfalls in a rather cloudy regime with near normal temperatures although very humid and little range from day to overnight in their case. We are moving into another hot spell in western regions.

M.T. Cranium · 12-08-2023 07:02AM

Saturday, 12 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures near normal for a few days then starting to rise gradually Thursday-Friday; rainfalls near average in some places but generally a bit below average; sunshine trying to keep pace with the mid-August average value of 4 to 4.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with variable amounts of cloud, dry for a while in east and south, showers soon spreading into west and north; moderate southwest winds 40-60 km/hr, and highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with some rain at times, lows 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, showers, some steady rain by afternoon near south coast spreading further north late in the day, highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, rain may become heavy at times in western counties. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

From THURSDAY to SUNDAY, warmer, but possibly a few wet spells as fronts continue to rotate around low pressure located to the west of Ireland; highs into the 21-24 C range, nights likely to be muggy with lows 14 to 17 C.

There will be a chance of even higher temperatures at times in parts of the southeast, both during the interval just mentioned, and later into the month, since quite warm to hot air masses will be prevalent over France and southern England. Slight changes in model guidance could either turn up the heat for Ireland or, alternatively, could lead to heavy rainfalls and thunderstorms. The actual outcome could of course include both scenarios at different times.

My local weather was sunny and very warm at 30 C but even hotter conditions are developing as an inland heat trough begins to form over the western interior regions of the U.S. and into British Columbia. Our peak heat appears to be coming mid-week at around 35-37 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-08-2023 06:15AM

Sunday, 13 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS may be changing somewhat later in the week as latest guidance reduces the amount of rain and cloud to be expected along with the warmer temperatures. So for now, with some lingering uncertainty, will say temperatures to average 1-2 deg above normal (due to a rising trend) and rainfall 25 to 50 per cent of normal. This may also improve total sunshine for the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY variable cloud, showers, some steady rain by afternoon near south coast but this now appears likely to stay mostly off the coast rather than spreading further north late in the day, highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and dry intervals, lows 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, showers, isolated thunderstorms, and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, scattered showers still possible but trends have for now removed a threat of heavier rain into the overnight. (low pressure now looking like it will set up a bit further out to sea which is reducing the unsettled aspects of the later warm spell) ... Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

From THURSDAY to SUNDAY, warmer, and some optimism now that the warmth may be largely dry until Friday, with skies partly cloudy if not sunny, and the previously expected rain not arriving until perhaps Friday 18th, highs into the 22-25 C range, nights likely to be muggy with lows 14 to 17 C. This warm spell may try to persist despite a bit of deflation of the upper support as there really isn't a large change in pattern and the slightly cooler air following on could easily end up being a degree or two warmer than normal too.

My local weather on Saturday was ideal, sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and warm but not too hot at around 28 C. Still expecting hotter temperatures to develop from Sunday to mid-week and peak near 35-37 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-08-2023 06:35AM

Monday, 14 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead ... temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal, rainfall will average 75 per cent of normal, and sunshine will be near average.

FORECASTS

TODAY some further rain to late morning in southeast, otherwise partly cloudy with showers, a few of them becoming briefly heavy this afternoon with highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and dry intervals, lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY sunny intervals, increasing cloud, isolated showers but most places dry. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

THIRSDAY partly cloudy and warm, moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs near 23 C.

FRIDAY rain with chance of thunderstorms, muggy, lows near 15 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

It continues to look reasonably warm for the following week, guidance keeps changing details but could eventually return to an even warmer scenario as southwest winds continue. For now, we'll say near average highs of 18 to 21 C, nights generally around 12 C. Some rain at ties but a fairly average sort of outcome.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and hot, with very low humidity, highs now edging up into low 30s. Conditions almost as hot as the infamous 2021 heat dome are being predicted for the region, ending Friday, and after that no return to hot weather for at least a week, so we'll just have to wait this out.

M.T. Cranium · 15-08-2023 06:38AM

Tuesday, 15 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures slightly above normal, rainfall near average and sunshine also fairly close to mid-August normals.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with cloudy intervals more frequent in west and north, showers more widespread by afternoon but some places likely to avoid them and stay dry; highs 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows 8 to 11 C. Some fog likely near south coast towards dawn.

WEDNESDAY sunny intervals, increasing cloud, isolated showers but most places dry, and highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy and warm, moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 12 C and highs near 23 C.

FRIDAY rain with chance of thunderstorms, muggy, lows near 15 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

Next week continues to look variable but a little warmer than normal at times, highs will range from 18 to 23 C. There is likely to be some rain but not a larger amount than normal.

My local weather on Monday slid into the heat wave zone and the local weather station had a high of 40 C, first time here since the June-early July 2021 heat dome. Only one place in Canada was hotter and that's the place that burned down in the heat dome (Lytton, BC). We are looking at three more days about the same, then the heat will rapidly move away and relocate in the central plains states from where it could mount some advances on the so far relatively moderate eastern states.

M.T. Cranium · 16-08-2023 07:15AM

Wednesday, 16 August, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain a little warmer than average and near normal for rainfall and sunshine. Some rather heavy rainfall appears possible around early Saturday morning as a front moves in from the southwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals developing, and just a few isolated showers; highs 18 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild, lows 9 to 12 C. Some fog likely in Munster towards dawn.

THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, and warm feeling rather muggy, with moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr by afternoon. Lows near 12 C and highs near 23 C.

FRIDAY steady rain or showers with chance of thunderstorms, muggy, lows near 15 C and highs near 21 C. Blustery south winds 40-60 km/hr. Some heavier showers and thunderstorms developing near south coast by evening.

SATURDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C. Latest guidance suggests a band of heavy showers and possible thunderstorms moving through quite early in the day (after midnight but before sunrise).

SUNDAY partly cloudy, showers and sunny breaks, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, isolated showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 20 C.

Guidance for next week continues to look fairly optimistic for temperatures a bit above average and rainfall not too persistent although not a dry pattern.

My local weather was rather noteworthy in that it was the hottest day (a) since the 2021 heat dome and (b) on any date in August in the province. Locally we topped out at 41.2 C and Lytton BC had 42.1 C; the previous monthly record set in 2004 was 41.7 C. Record highs were also set in many parts of the western U.S., including 42 C at Portland, Oregon.

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