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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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A few of the GEM runs playing around with things turning colder into the final week of February. There are about 4 members doing this, hopefully more will join over the next couple of days.
GFS ensembles show nothing too cold yet however there is a definite cooling trend now appearing for the final week of February.
We are likely to see an increase in members turning cold from the 24th of February over the next few days. Of course upper air temperatures right now are well above average and will stay that way for another 10 days at least.
Even if we were to get a beast from the east for a few days in February (very unlikely), this will still finish up a milder than average month as temperatures will be well above average for the first 3 weeks of February. The month is also likely to finish up much dryer than average, however the final week is likely to be somewhat more unsettled.
Winter 2022/2023 will finish up milder than average yet again after a very mild second half to December, a mostly mild January and very mild February for the most part.
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Just an observation regarding GFS ensembles. There is a number of colder members cropping up in the final week of February, which may or may not be linked with the SSW. Worth keeping an eye on over subsequent runs. The 06z is top. Yesterday's 12z is bottom
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As much as I LOVE the heat and sunshine, I have to agree with @Larbre34 in that there has been an improvement in Irish summers of late although 2022 is very fresh in my mind so I could be a bit biased. "IF" the Irish summers are becoming warmer, sunnier and calmer (Jesus, I hate the wind!) as a result of climate change, then there is a chance that our climate will become more akin to the likes of Brittany in France, but without risks of extreme heat the odd time in the summer during a heatwave with winds from the east or south east. Maybe I'm just overly wishing!
Keeping on topic, the latest stratospheric forecast from GFS which shows this for around now:
This for 24th February. Major warming at the North Pole with the polar vortex completely displaced to Western Russia and barely recognisable:
And a couple of days later, at the end of the run, the warming over the North Pole is beginning to subside but another is developing quickly over northern Siberia and the Polar Vortex is more or less obliterated. Bear in mind this is the GFS but it is not alone on the SSW idea.
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CFS extended finally delivers winter for second half of March on the latest run. Unlikely to verify but in reality I would like if we could get this in the first half of March rather than the second half, but after a mild lame winter at this stage we will have to take what we get.
Becoming much cooler around the middle of March with winds in from the north-east.
Paddys Day would be anything but green particularly in Leinster. Lovely Greenland High just where you want it.
Bitterly cold air and some stiff winds screeching in from the east in a very unstable flow.
A threat of low pressures bumping into the very cold air could give serious disruption depending on where the track of low pressure sits, particularly on the northern side, however warm sectors with the low pressure could cause problems for coastal areas in particular, However if this verified much of the country would be covered in snow.
After the low passes we are back in a bitterly cold north-easterly, this would be day 10 of snow potential.
Remains very cold until the end of the month and milder air eventually breaks through on April 1.
Now if only this would verify, this is the CFS afterall so several dumpster trucks of salt required for this one. However it is worth noting that the CFS has been playing around with a cold to very cold March for several weeks now, but in reality if we are to get some cold weather in March it is very unlikely to last as long as what I have just posted, I would be expecting something more toned down in reality.
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The major sudden stratospheric warming is set to occur tomorrow evening and Thursday should be the first full day of easterlies at 60N 10hPa (known as the central date). If we use the minimum threshold of 2 weeks for impacts, that takes us to Thursday March 2nd. This gives us an idea of the earliest we should see the impacts being felt from the SSW if we are going to see downward propagation or a tropospheric response. As it's over 2 weeks away, reliability on what models say should be non-existent because different solutions will be played with.
A complicating factor I have not discussed is whilst there is a major warming going to take place at 10hPa, in the lower stratosphere closer to the troposphere, the polar vortex is more stubborn. If propagation occurs in the longer term, this will not matter. Why I mention it is because it might be important in determining the latitude the MJO amplification might gain hold. The MJO favours a mid-Atlantic to Greenland block with a Scandi trough towards the end of the month. However as is usual, the state of the polar vortex at the time will have a say on how far north that block gets. If it's a mid-Atlantic ridge, you can expect transient northerlies or northwesterlies. If it's more over Greenland/Iceland, you can expect more of a northeasterly tilt.
As the CFSv2 keeps being brought up here, I might as well mention it too despite its usefulness being questionable a lot of the time. The model shows a very strong negative NAO signature for March 2023 at the moment with strong Greenland blocking. The way the Atlantic trough is aligned wouldn't be that conducive to a cold or very cold month though and in fact could find ourselves often in southerly winds. Details like that will not be firmed up on this early. The trough was much closer to us in some prior updates in an even more conducive southerly wind pattern. There will highly likely be more changes.
There is no beast from the east in the forecast and although you cannot fully discount one happening, going to put my neck out and say there will not be one happening. This setup is very different to 2018. 2018 was a major split of the stratospheric polar vortex with daughter vortices set up in the perfect way conducive for a long fetched easterly from the heart of Siberia and the progression of the Ural high retrogressing to Greenland complimented that all along with favourable MJO amplification. In fact the retrogression in 2018 was too strong to the point that the block became west based -NAO and retrogressed to North America which allowed Storm Emma to successfully undercut ending the cold spell early although of course on the St. Patrick's Day weekend, we got a renewed easterly push. It's rare enough we get all the drivers in sync with one another and part of why, aside from our geography, these severe cold wintry spells are exceedingly rare.
Just for the record, I don't want cold weather. I am well over it. I am on the spring train. Although if snow does occur, I will make the most of it and enjoy it.
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The 12z GFS, GEM and UKMO have all shifted to a cooler setup from Tuesday next week. An area of high pressure to our south shifts further west allowing for a Polar Maritime airflow to become established over Ireland. The airmass itself is not so significant in terms of cold but the placement of the highs is notable. The GEM in particular has a nice northeasterly fetch extending over Ireland by Thursday. The shift to cold may be transient but the subtle changes in the positioning of the area of high pressure to our west are worth watching. Presently, there is little indication of heights building over Greenland but with all thats going on over the Pole, what happens up north will resolve itself over time.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Cooler, wetter with wintry showers showing up from around mid week on the ECM now for a few runs, might see a few white caps on mountains again at the end of next week, more unsettled and changeable then our recent spell of weather, bit of a shake up to the recent patterns to something new if anything, nothing too stand out at this stage although the GFS does show very cold airs coming in from the E / NE in the outer stages of FI, bit of interest there to keep an eye on.
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