Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

The other reality is that the fake narrative peddled by some is that FG have been losing votes since 2020. The opposite is the case. The FG vote has held up remarkably well considering all that the government has had to do and that MM has been hogging the limelight.

SF has obliterated the smaller parties, but made little to no inroad into the FG vote. That makes the case for FG that they should stay the hell away from SF as their core 20% don't like SF. It may need a spell of SF in government to persuade the swing voters of the reality that SF are a disaster, and that may happen like you say.

I can't see the government lasting until 2025, I think Summer 2024 we will have a GE.

Inflation means that the cash prices of property won't drop, as the cost of inputs will go up. Affordability may get easier if wage growth outstrips property price growth, so while the value of your house won't go down, the affordability of it may change.

How are they being dishonest? Nobody will ever tell the truth. Mary-Lou spent the whole of the last election campaign saying she wanted a government without FF and FG, spent the first few days after the election result saying she was going to form a left-wing government, didn't have serious talks with any of the left-wing parties, and then cried for months that FF and FG had colluded to exclude her from government. She will have a real credibility issue come the next election because of the way she swings in the wind.

As for the government parties, it is fairly simple and easy to see how they can take a different path, but leave open the idea of returning together. Here is an example, based on what the political situation is now (obviously the political situation will have changed dramatically by 2025, so who knows what they will say then).

If I was Varadkar for example, I would say during the next election campaign that I was not willing to coalesce with SF under any circumstances (thereby capturing the anti-SF vote and putting FF on the back foot), but that any other option would be considered solely on whether those other parties were willing to meet key FG demands.

If I was Ryan, I would say that I was prepared to join any government that was prepared to put climate change at the top of the agenda, but that parties, particularly opposition parties, that had refused to date to commit to climate change policies must do so now as part of the election campaign.

If I was Martin, I would say that they would be open to coalition with most parties, but it would be extremely difficult to see FF doing business with SF because of the mad SF policies, but if SF were prepared to accept him as Taoiseach, to jettison mad ideas particularly around a Border Poll, and accept that they wouldn't be allowed near certain Ministries because of their past, then a coalition might be possible, but extremely unlikely. That would garner him second preferences, and stem the leak of FF votes to SF. It would be appealing to a different section of the electorate than FG.

The smaller parties - SDs, Labour - will point to that and say that none of the main parties will really go into government with SF, so the best chance of change will be to vote for the smaller parties. They will outline three or four bottom-line issues for coalition.

Next time out, SF will have a problem. If they continue with their current protest for the sake of protest rhetoric, voters will quickly conclude that there is no chance of them going into government as they are ruling out the two main parties and they could lose votes. Who will SF say that they will coalesce with? They can't credibly say they are willing to coalesce with FF or FG having castigated them from on high for years, so what will they say? That is the party with the most difficult answer to your question.

In the world of real politics this is codswallop TBH

given the history of Irish electioneering and opposition. Every single coalition party will have 'castigated' the other when not in coalition.

The problem for FF and FG will be separating themselves in a campaign. As said, they will be faced with the 'same cheeks of the same arse' tag and I see that weakening their campaigns and strengtening that of opposition parties in a lot of constituencies. Labour will capitalise on it as will, the SD's, SF and independents most especially.

I for one am looking forward to how they tell us they are nor the same and see if they can arrest the ever falling share of the vote they have.

Sf in government next time out... premature talk, I don't see it myself.

The party that gets the most votes usually are in the strongest position. That is their mandate, their strength, as it were. I see SF finishing as lead party, like pollsters, the public and most media. It's inevitable at this stage.

What the electorate (or a share of it, hardened support won't be bothered) will want to know is in the event of that,(SF, again winning the popular vote race) what are they gonna do?

All parties supporters will want to know.. For FF and FG they will want to know, honestly, what they intend, will it be like last time with party's blithely ignoring campaign statements the minute the vote is cast and suiting themselves or will the genuinely listen to the electorate and negociate on a programme for government.

I think FG and FF have voters who will not vote for another coalition of the two of them TBH. Back bench sentiment and discomfort is all you need to observe to see that. That is a weak position for any leader.

I get your point, but talking to senior Greens, I have been told that SF were never serious.

Well you are the one missing SF saying they have no issue with coalition and inventing problems for them that don't exist. They are at 36% in the polls and rising.

You can't just keep making stuff up. 😁

I never said anything was inevitable. Just saying that pulling the plug will look attractive at times.

I cannot see any scenario where it will not get worse for the coalition with what is headed our way. Off topic anyway

Should have said 'IMO', but as the future cannot be foretold by anyone I thought that might have been obvious, No worries,

Ignoring the Party Political Broadcast element again, I think not even FG FF or Gr's think that the next year is not going to be extremely difficult and that is not allowing for Troy and Donnelly coming back to haunt and other exposés + whatever else emerges as we proceed.

Ignoring the trend of the polls(which is well established now) is your business tbh, but again I garuntee you nobody in elected politics is ignoring them.

If the government falls in ignominy then that too will affect the formation of the next one.

And giving out €200 to everyone in the country isn't the magic number tree and maybe even a further pay out to everyone in the budget, before the end of the year. I mean the government look like they are about to pay everyone's electricity bill.

I don't trust any of the political parties to run the countries finance. Is the current government actually running the finances of the country well.

IMO You are anti-SF no matter what SF say or do you will put them in a bad light. There are a number of reasons that I won't be voting for SF but then I apply most of those reason to both FF and FG.

I see very little difference between any of the political parties.

I believe SF are retreating slightly to the current perceived centre, which is where both FF and FG are.

I think your worries about a SF lead government are misplaced because you simply don't like SF.

I don't think anything will change under a SF government, I see no problem with them running the country if the choice is largely the same on the so-call other side.

I would have the same view to an extent.

I am not for giving up though. Significant change has happened in 10 years approx.

Hopefully a situation will arise at the end of the change we are seeing in Irish politics and power will no longer be swapped or shared between two parties who have now shown they offer very little that is different.

When it comes to coalition talks there is a danger one of them consigns themselves to history as a political force. FF seem the most likely candidates for that at the moment. That fear might be something SF can exploit.