Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585957#Comment_119585957

A mandate was also given to other possible coalitions.

Yes. No one is disputing that. It was up to the political parties involved to decide what they wanted to do.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586221#Comment_119586221

Correct. Nobody 'chose' to mandate specific parties as claimed.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586288#Comment_119586288

I don't think anyone specifically claimed that this government and only this government would have had a mandate. Just that the current as currently formulated clearly has one. FF/SF/G would have one too had they agreed to go into coalition together. But they didn't.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586309#Comment_119586309

The claim was made

The people made a democratic decision to give FF, FG and the Greens a working overall majority, 

They didn't. They give all parties and independents a mandate to form a coalition if there was no overall majority.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586354#Comment_119586354

This is just absurd semantics. The people made a democratic decision to give all parties a mandate to form a coalition and FF/FG/GP did so, therefore the govt has a mandate from the people. The manner in which the people voted meant that FF/FG/GP together have an overall majority.

More or less the entire point being made here is exactly that all parties and independents have a mandate post election to form whatever govt they see fit and can accomplish. This is why SF's wailing about no one talking to them despite being the biggest party is so ridiculous. They will likely be the biggest party (and by a decent margin) after the next election as things stand also, but it is not incumbent upon any representative to align with them or form a government with them - and if another majority govt can be formed then they would have a mandate from the people to govern no matter what number of seats SF get. And if people complain about a lack of democracy in that scenario then they do not understand what on earth they are on about.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586436#Comment_119586436

It is far from semantics as the impression the the electorate 'chose' 3 parties is factually wrong.

And as I said earlier, rightly or wrongly the impression is out there that the process of arriving at this coalition was unusual and smacked of a cling to power.

Denying that is prevalent is also foolish and it will factor into votes next time around.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586490#Comment_119586490

And as I said earlier, rightly or wrongly the impression is out there that the process of arriving at this coalition was unusual and smacked of a cling to power.

That impression is only with SF supporters who spend a significant amount of time trying to tell everyone else they are right.

Everyone else understands the Irish election system

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586490#Comment_119586490

A) its wrongly, and I think its important to acknowledge that

B) its only among those who don't want the current governmental parties, which was less than half the electorate. Essentially it was SF supporters - who were 24.5% of the electorate. Some like to make out it was a lot higher than that.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586574#Comment_119586574

A) I disagree, it isn't entirely wrong IMO There has to be a reason for a unique coalition.

B) Also disagree, I think it's a lot more. They'll be the ones asking what FF and FG intend to do next time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586667#Comment_119586667

No one wanted to go into power with SF for well published historical reasons. That may change going forward but basically any coalition after the last election would have been unique so that's not a strong argument. There has never been a precedent of the party with the most first preference votes having some "right" to power, particularly not one with as few as 37 seats. It is utterly wrong to suggest there is any absence or denial of democracy in our current government.

I don't think any fall in support has anything to do with the coalition negotiations - particularly given the rise in support in early days of COVID. Things are just a bit **** at the moment and you expect opposition parties to profit in those situations. Ultimately SF support is concentrated in younger people who tend to be more vocal online, but there remains a strong segment of society (rightly or wrongly...) who deeply distrust SF and ultimately they "only" got 24% of first preference votes.

Governments are formed by parties who can come together to form a majority. It is deeply disturbing to me that anyone tries to undermine that.

I would not agree with blanch and others in terms of what is about to happen - I suspect SF will be in govt next time round. But they get there by actually trying to form a government, not sitting back and moaning that no one will talk to them.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586814#Comment_119586814

But FG and FF did not talk to them.

The numbers were not there to an alternative so everybody could see that was it, for SF. They were effectively locked out in people's view.

Now you can give your opinion on it until the cows come home but the fact is a lot of people saw it as clinging to power, further enhanced by now multiple wagon circlings around wrongdoing.

That is gonna be a big factor in the next election, like it or not and FG and FF know this. FF rowing back from a 'no talk' position says to me they will go in, if a programme for government can be agreed. They will certainly negotiate this time.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586968#Comment_119586968

They were effectively locked out in people's view.

Again, this was just in SF supporters view. Nobody else.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586968#Comment_119586968

You really don't seem to understand how govts are formed

The victim complex you're assigning to SF'ers is funny though

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587062#Comment_119587062

I fully understand.

As i said, I really don’t care what your opinion of the opinion of others is.

It’s immaterial.

That opinion is damaging FF in particular and that is why the signs are(links provided) FF are indicating they won’t be involved in locking out a party with a mandate.

Whether the damage to FF is permanent remains to be seen.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585812#Comment_119585812

I think some people are trying to see the silver lining on losing a load of votes to SF. Anytime FF got knocked out and FG in, or vice versa, that was a revolt vote. Can you point to any election ever where people decided to take their vote elsewhere and it wasn't based on wanting rid of the current government?

What do you think 'revolt' means as regards the electorate favouring a different party? Is it like a protest vote? Can you tell me what you mean by 'revolt vote', maybe I'm not getting it?

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586436#Comment_119586436

TBF, do you think there was more than a few FF voters who never in a million years thought they were voting for a FG government and vice versa?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587453#Comment_119587453

This 100%

It is going to be more and more of an issue for FF.

And I think will massively influence them if the GE goes the way of the polls at the minute.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585912#Comment_119585912

I disagree. The people who voted SF are no different than when they voted FG. No party has offered quick fixes and nobody expects them from any party.

We keep getting told the tide is turning on housing, but...

People want to try something different. Its the same when FF are in and people go with FG for a change. Except now there's SF to pick.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586999#Comment_119586999

SF votes are worth exactly the same as FF ones, FG ones or yours.

It doesn't matter what you think of the opinion, it exists and FF in particular have reacted to it. (links provided) They will not be seen to do it again.

So next time, it will come down to what can be agreed in a programme for government...and IMO that can be agreed between the two parties ideologies.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119587709#Comment_119587709

I never said a SF vote was worth less, what sort of rubbish is that?

What I said was SF voters don't seem to understand the Irish system to elect a government. Excellently demonstrated by yourself over the last few posts.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588105#Comment_119588105

The impression/opinion is out there, is the point.

Your 'opinion' of that is your own and worthless tbh. I.E. It is immaterial.

The fact is, it is a factor that will influence the next election.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588221#Comment_119588221

No it’s not and it won’t affect the next election

Sleepy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119586968#Comment_119586968

Let's be honest, the onus was on Sinn Fein to approach FF or FG with a workable draft of a programme for government. Instead they had a public sulk that the other two large parties weren't approaching them. They've spent so long hurling from the ditch and demonising FF / FG (often through very personalised attacks) that the two traditional "enemies" of Irish politics were happier to work together than to seriously consider SF as a coalition partner. Vitriolic on-line campaigns that try to paint Fine Gael as a far right party (or the likes of Varadkar as Thatcherite Tories) may well play well to the galleys but they do little to convince floating voters and centrists that Sinn Fein are to be taken seriously.

Politics is, at it's heart, the art of compromise. Sinn Fein have yet to demonstrate any inclination to be amenable to compromise in the Republic of Ireland, choosing instead to pursue a more American or British style of antagonistic politics that, while suited to the first past the post, dual party systems in those jurisdictions, doesn't play well here outside of the angry young wannabe revolutionaries whose votes SF can only lose to the likes of PBP.

To put it more bluntly: if Sinn Fein want a seat at the grown ups table, they need to start acting like grown ups. Were I a political strategist in their employ, I'd be encouraging Sinn Fein to stop with the personal attacks and reach across the divide: to find some low hanging issues of common interest with Fianna Fail deputies, co-author some bills with them and demonstrate a willingness as a party to work together to get those bills turned into legislation. An election candidate who can point to some legislative achievement is far more worthy of consideration to floating voters, and a party you've a track record of working with in the past is a far more appealing prospective coalition partner than one who's spent the past term of government hurling abuse at you.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588275#Comment_119588275

That post is full of the entitlement and ownership culture that was pointed out earlier.

That is just a 'view' of what happened and I am not really interested in it.

The FACT is there are other views

IMO FF know that it was seen as a lockout by a significant amount of the vote they need, and they know they won't get away with it again.

Hence the change in their attitude, even Martin is not brave (stupid) enough to rule out talks.

FG study groups have probably told them they aren't getting that vote anyway, so can stridently rule out talks.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585957#Comment_119585957

Yes, any party has a right to negotiate a coalition, but they don't have a right to demand that others negotiate with them, particularly if they have castigated those other parties and claimed they wanted a government without them. In those circumstances, some diplomacy, some tact, some compromise are needed. SF displayed none of that after the last election, and very little since.

Without changing, SF are likely to stay in opposition for quite some time.

If a coalition has a majority of seats, they have a mandate from the people. Simple as. Those going around crying, whinging and moaning that somehow democracy was denied or frustrated because SF didn't end up in government, either don't understand democracy or don't understand mathematics.

It is now interesting watching Labour under Bacik differentiate themselves from SF in how they do business and in their policies. She sees a path back to government without SF.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119585912#Comment_119585912

If SF do get into government, they will make the 2016 meltdown of Labour look like a minor setback. PBP would be rubbing their hands in delight at the prospect of a SF/FF government.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588275#Comment_119588275

Very well said.

The issues with SF are well known.

The online rhetoric and mob mentality, the whitewashing and revisionism of their history, to their populist agenda to all things like Climate Change, the Special Criminal Court and Property Tax. To block housing developments at a local level but give out about it at the central government level.

To many people, SF is just not grown up enough to manage the country. They are good at stoking anger, and resentment and spouting easy solutions to complex and difficult problems, but governing is hard and SF to me has no capacity to govern in a reasonable and mature fashion.

Sleepy

Of course it's just a view, but I suspect it's a fairly commonly held one, certainly among FF / FG members i.e. those Sinn Fein will have to work with if they expect to be part of any government after the next election (unless they somehow manage an outright majority or close enough to it that the likes of Michael Lowry or the Healy Raes can be bribed to support a government).

I'd agree with you that Fine Gael only benefit from ruling out talks with Sinn Fein but I can't imagine they needed a focus group to determine it.

I think your opinion of FF voters is optimistic in the extreme. They're not a party of idealists, they're cute hoor pragmatists with a penchant for economy destroying, populist tax-cuts and jobs-for-the-boys and their core supporters know that: they're the very boys and girls working in those jobs (or their retired on a good state pension parents). While there may be a few republican idealists in the mix, there won't be enough of them that share your opinion about a "lockout" to matter and, certainly the vast majority of their membership know only too well how minority coalition partners fared when in government with Fianna Fail to even consider placing themselves in that position with Sinn Fein.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588414#Comment_119588414

I think your point about 'not enough of them to matter' doesn't stack up to developments/reality.

FF have said they will enter talks, a huge step down from MM's 2020 position.

That can only indicate one thing - those votes are important to them. They know where this is going IOW.

They are looking to their future and survival.

That will play into SF's ambition to form a goverment IMO. ANd you don't have to be a supporter or like any of the parties to see this.

Irish politics is being forced to change, fundamentally.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119588414#Comment_119588414

Another good point.

My folks would be core FF voters. They are both retired and are on a good public service pension.

They are very worried about SF getting into government and destroying the economy. They wouldn't be outright hostile to SF on a matter of ideology or principle as say someone from a more hardline FG background, as they share similar beliefs with SF about Irish Republicanism, Northern Ireland and the Irish Langauge and Culture. Yet, they are overtly hostile to SF as a matter of pragmatism and wouldn't want the good work that Ireland has made over the last 40-50 years flushed down the toilet to appease SF's populist economic rhetoric. They don't see the maturity in SF to come to the table and act like big boys.

I would wager they are not alone in the FF gene pool who think like that.