Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580686#Comment_119580686

Should have said 'IMO', but as the future cannot be foretold by anyone I thought that might have been obvious, No worries,

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580686#Comment_119580686

On boards you will find the same group of posters have said the government is going to fall every week since it was formed.

In reality even with the Troy situation the government is stronger than ever after the failed no confidence vote before the holidays.

The budget is coming up and with the excess in the budget is they use it rightly they will keep voters happy. I honestly couldn't care less what an opinion poll saying because they are useless this far out.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580775#Comment_119580775

Ignoring the Party Political Broadcast element again, I think not even FG FF or Gr's think that the next year is not going to be extremely difficult and that is not allowing for Troy and Donnelly coming back to haunt and other exposés + whatever else emerges as we proceed.

Ignoring the trend of the polls(which is well established now) is your business tbh, but again I garuntee you nobody in elected politics is ignoring them.

If the government falls in ignominy then that too will affect the formation of the next one.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580866#Comment_119580866

Not sure what this "party political broadcast" comment is about?

Maybe you can explain to everyone what you are talking about?

Thanks

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580655#Comment_119580655

And giving out €200 to everyone in the country isn't the magic number tree and maybe even a further pay out to everyone in the budget, before the end of the year. I mean the government look like they are about to pay everyone's electricity bill.

I don't trust any of the political parties to run the countries finance. Is the current government actually running the finances of the country well.

IMO You are anti-SF no matter what SF say or do you will put them in a bad light. There are a number of reasons that I won't be voting for SF but then I apply most of those reason to both FF and FG.

I see very little difference between any of the political parties.

I believe SF are retreating slightly to the current perceived centre, which is where both FF and FG are.

I think your worries about a SF lead government are misplaced because you simply don't like SF.

I don't think anything will change under a SF government, I see no problem with them running the country if the choice is largely the same on the so-call other side.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581117#Comment_119581117

So you are complaining that the government spent some of the money they receive from the profits of ESB back to the people of ireland to help them in a very difficult situation because of a war?

I have some of the reason above why I wouldn’t vote for SF.

I actually said in 2020 I wanted SF to go into government just to get past this rubbish we see online everyday about how excellent they are. They ran and hid so it didn’t happen

Personally for me I have a job and a family, all I can see is SF making a mess and risking both my job and my families future. Forgive me if you think I shouldn’t think about that and try to protect it

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581117#Comment_119581117

I would have the same view to an extent.

I am not for giving up though. Significant change has happened in 10 years approx.

Hopefully a situation will arise at the end of the change we are seeing in Irish politics and power will no longer be swapped or shared between two parties who have now shown they offer very little that is different.

When it comes to coalition talks there is a danger one of them consigns themselves to history as a political force. FF seem the most likely candidates for that at the moment. That fear might be something SF can exploit.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581148#Comment_119581148

So you assuming that the dividend that the ESB gave to the government was used to give back to consumers what they had already paid? OKAY.

I don't think they did hide and run, they weren't at the races, they might have pretended to have been their but really they weren't, it was good show from them but clearly the numbers weren't going to add up.

Do you think SF should be in the current government with either FG or FF and GP? It wouldn't be beneficial to them, they aren't LP, they are not that stupid, they are the new FF party.

I am not saying you should consider these things but I think you might have had these issues long before you had a family. I could be wrong and you could have been a staunch SF supporter from 1997 to 2016.

Just to let you know other than the PDs and FG, I have probably supported all of the political parties at some point. Starting with FF, moving GP, going to SF and then to LP, I have supported them all. Where have you been in the past? Always with FF or FG no matter what or maybe LP?

I enjoy the polls and I can see the political landscape, I try not to be bias in my view on this thread because really its just a numbers thread.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581148#Comment_119581148

I actually said in 2020 I wanted SF to go into government just to get past this rubbish we see online everyday about how excellent they are.

Same and I've said it plenty since.

The one thing that will knock the sheen off SF for a lot of people will be SF in power as they'll be virtually indistinguishable from the other 2, if we're lucky, or a complete basket case of destructive short-term-gain, populist policies.

My money was always on the second one but since they've become the voice of the opposition they've calmed down so I'm leaning more towards the first one now

RoTelly

@brokenangel

I actually said in 2020 I wanted SF to go into government just to get past this rubbish we see online everyday about how excellent they are.

That isn't the same as saying

I supported SF in 2020 and had hoped they would go in to government but now 2 years later I am glad they didn't because the country would be in a worse state

You didn't vote for SF, you didn't look for them to be in government so that they could change the country and make it better because you believe in their policies.

What you are saying is you'd have been happy enough for SF to go into government so that they could be shown up for who they really are and hopefully in a very short period of time we'd be having another election. But your opinion on that has now changed because you think even 2 years in power would destroy the country and that is something you couldn't conscientiously agree to ... because we are in a far worse position then we were in 2020, due to COVID and the War in the Ukraine.

And I can accept all of that, I actually appreciate your fears about SF in government, I might disagree with them but I understand them.

But you've never supported SF and I am guessing you've only ever voted one way.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581350#Comment_119581350

No, I guess the both comments are from me? as you didn't quote the entire posts I cannot tell.

if so one is a typo. Thanks

I didn't vote for SF in 2020, as I said I wanted them to get into government so we could get over all of it.

Not sure why you are making assumption about how or who I voted for? what difference does it make?

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581568#Comment_119581568

The second quote is made up by me to show the difference as to what you said about hoping they would go into government and to show it wasn't about support.

non-SF voters like yourself come from either 3 camps and its important that you show where you coming from, because your being honest.

I assume that you vote either Labour or FG ... unlikely FF as most FF voters hold some similar views to those of SF and are more naturally likely to vote for them. LP voters are generally very anti-SF, while FG are less so and only when they feel the need (and that's usually about SF/IRA etc). BTW I am talking about core supporters, which you may not be.

I don't suspect you to be Soc Dems and then to the far left of the dial, because the further left you go the more fractured and anti-everyone you become.

Brucie Bonus

My biggest concern is any party, SF or other, getting in and being no different from FF/FG. It will truly leave us without hope.

Strumms

SF won’t get the support from elsewhere.

this FF/FG coalition I think have 69 seats….

SF have 36

Labour won’t entertain SF

Social Democrats by virtue of who their leaders won’t.

many of the independents are centre right.

so really can’t see SF getting a government together.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119580866#Comment_119580866

What do you mean by Party Political Broadcast element?

This thread is about the difficulties that SF will have in forming a government. Most posters are sticking to that topic and talking about SF and not about other parties. As far as I can see, the poster who seems to mention SF least in the thread and focus on the other parties is yourself (SF mentioned in less than a third of your posts, the other parties in more than two-thirds), but you don't seem to be promoting those parties. So I am a little confused as to who is engaging in party political broadcast elements.

However, in your most recent post, you have made the case eloquently for why the government parties will do everything they can to make the government go the distance. What this has to do with the credibility issues that SF will face in forming a government bewilders me.

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581985#Comment_119581985

I can't see FF wanting to go another round with FG if Martin retires. If we end up with roughly the same results and the same government it will cement them as one party.

I think many in FF will be open to SF. If that happens there'll be more smaller parties willing to jump in.

I think its the biggest load of horse manure to think FG or FF have any high ground, moral or otherwise.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581985#Comment_119581985

I find it very difficult to see a path to government for Sinn Fein.

They are currently cannabilising the smaller opposition parties rather than taking votes from FF and FG.

https://irishelectionprojections.com/national/

The projections from the July polls show a massive jump for SF, but also small increases for FF and FG because of the peculiarities of the STV system, which many people don't understand.

The prospect of the current government being re-elected is not a remote one.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582250#Comment_119582250

And my point is that already divisions are emerging within FF in particular that says they will not want to repeat this coalition as it is clear they have an identity problem.

FF may have no difficulty therefore taking a new direction to rebuild and as a result may be happy to negotiate a programme of government if they are free from FG association.

My prediction is that if SF take 35-40% the problems are FF and FG's.

FF will be delighted to lock FG out for a period...absolutely overjoyed in fact.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582322#Comment_119582322

That is what you mean by Party Political Broadcast element??? I am really confused, unless you are talking about someone projecting 40% for SF which is way off.

I fancy Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil to get the band back together.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582362#Comment_119582362

People will wonder what all the talk was about when it happens.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581985#Comment_119581985

SF have 36

I think they'll be getting a few more than that. Quite likely double in fact...

Strumms

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582462#Comment_119582462

I think their vote share will increase in all likelihood but getting more votes and forming a government ? Convincing others to join a coalition …. Can’t see it personally but hey, be an interesting watch…

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119581829#Comment_119581829

I’m not sure why you need to know who I voted for? I couldn’t care less who you voted for. This is a discussion about SF and the next government

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582362#Comment_119582362

I doubt it, SF want it but no idea what’s in it for FF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153022#Comment_119153022

Agreed except the GP are finished after this winter. Aontú are ahead of them in the polls.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153185#Comment_119153185

What a load of nonsense. We are spending record amounts of money at the moment and it's only because of our booming corporation tax currently that we are anywhere near able to do it. That money could be gone very soon and then what?

There are massive inefficiencies in the system. The HSE for example can't hire staff, not for want of money but because no one wants to work for them, and who could blame them when they can't even manage to pay salaries on time, or have to register a nurse or junior doctor from scratch with payroll if they move hospital.

Throwing more money at the problem will just mean they hire still more admins pushing a cursor around their copy of Windows 95, and bankrupt us and then there will be no money for anyone except the lefty politicians who will award themselves a big pay rise.

What we need now is a Margaret Thatcher.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582536#Comment_119582536

If the numbers are there to form a non-FF/FG government there will be massive pressure on all strands of the left to join in. Even if the parties themselves are reluctant their supporters will see it as possibly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582536#Comment_119582536

So do you think FF and FG can keep it going into perpetuity? Either coalescing or swapping the power between them?

I think FF's need to survive will be the clincher here and will see a SF FF + others government.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582604#Comment_119582604

Important because its isn't about the polls or how SF will form a government for you, it you saying it cant' happen and the country will be up **** creak within a month.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119582907#Comment_119582907

I am saying it is 2 years out from an election and based on what is happened previous we have no idea if SF will even be the top party.

If they are they will definitely need a coalition partner. FG have already said no chance and have been clear on that

As per the comments from FF last time they said no chance either. Plus my personal opinion I see nothing in it for FF so I wouldn't understand why they would go into government with SF. SF have constantly shown they throw everyone under the bus plus they have spent 2+ years telling everyone how terrible FF are

So make of that what you will :-)

Still no idea why it makes a difference who I vote for? I could vote for anyone and would that make a difference on what my opinion is? maybe you can explain?