Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576045#Comment_119576045

Fix housing and the numbers will change.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576058#Comment_119576058

Housing is unfixable in 30 months.

It might be fixable in 10 years, if there were a comprehensive policy agreed by all parties within the next 12 months and stuck to.

If Housing alone dictates the fortunes of the current Government parties, then they are goosed in 2025. But I don't think Housing will entirely.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576058#Comment_119576058

Given inflation has eroded people's spending power and decimated their savings value

,it's not credible to believe it can be sorted without an absolutly massive amount of social housing being built,and expanding social housing net to met demands for 40% of workers

HAP and social housing bands haven't changed in a generation,hundreds of thousands are falling through cracks and being driven to destitution to pay landlords.....you believe this can be done in 18 months?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576100#Comment_119576100

I used to think that maybe MM had the ability to turn FF around but I no longer do after Troy and Donnelly in particular.

They are as you say 'goosed' and they'll be delighted if they mange to achieve a coalition. A bad election and no stint in government for them could see them become a peripheral force in Irish politics.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576100#Comment_119576100

This is the latest numbers from FF the other day, if we look at the other months these numbers are going up.

Like I know a site beside me with 21 units available and ready to buy, I only talked to him yesterday about it. In the Dublin area.

Look on daft and 13k houses for sale in Ireland.

I talked to a mate who is agent and he says it has slowed down because people are not buying with the war etc.

Another 28k homes into the market in the next 6 months if they got commenced last year.

That's a lot of houses, a lot.

#HousingForAll is one year old and it's making good progress.

Since the middle of 2021, almost 54,000 new homes have been either built (25,000) or commenced (28,450).

The number of homes purchased by Households has gone from a low of just under 25,699 in 2011 to 55,298 in 2021.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576136#Comment_119576136

Again FF and the housing Minister will want to make sure that they last until voters get to see that change and he better make sure that his policies work and are shown to work... otherwise FF are clinging to power in the hope of a miracle.

Any can you name anything that FF haven't done in the last 25 years to damage the country? I think you might be an FF voter #notanFFer

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576157#Comment_119576157

It isn't going to happen in time for the GE and you will also have Health, the Cost of Living and Energy crisis doing as yet, untold harm. The parties of government will be looking for scraps from the coalition table if they want to be in the next one.

Brucie Bonus

All SF and others need to do is sit back and watch the damage happen. Inflation and the war in Ukraine won't be ending soon. Using them as an excuse will wear thin in a few more months, not that anyone is seriously buying the many crises only started in the last six months. Rolling black outs over the winter won't impress anyone either.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576591#Comment_119576591

They can't sit back though....they have to keep pushing the government to do better and better,otherwise it's ordinary people who will suffer

Be loud and in their face ,otherwise they'll rest on laurals and the dail will once more descend into type of a private club where noone wants improve things and just shrug shoulders and nothing will ever change

Brucie Bonus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576818#Comment_119576818

Agreed. The point was FF/FG are their own worse enemy.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119576136#Comment_119576136

The biggest problem for the government is that there will be a lag between the housing issue being significantly improved and the public realising that it has improved.

As some posters have suggested, SF can just sit back and wait, that is the cynical approach, that is the normal SF approach, take advantage of problems, but never offer solutions.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119577883#Comment_119577883

The 'biggest problem' for the government vis a vis the next election, is: in order to tell the electorate that the only alternative to SF being in government , they have to admit they have tacitly merged as parties without telling them they have merged.

In order to be in the running for forming of a government SF will have to exploit this 'problem' of identity, particularly in FF.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119577883#Comment_119577883

You also have a lot of people holding out for the promised crash. So people will complain about rents etc but when you say houses are available they want to wait and see if the price drops.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578250#Comment_119578250

To me it looks like this :-

Government are holding out for a miracle (while they have seen an increase in exchequer funds most of that will be spend on inflation so its not an acutal increase)

Opposition holding out for the I told you so moment.

Neither tactic is honest.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578457#Comment_119578457

No it isn't but it would be naive to ignore that that is how politics works the world over.

It's whose tactic works the best that wins the day.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578457#Comment_119578457

They actually thought they had it before the summer holidays but totally misread the room when they called the vote of no confidence.

Now the opposition sit in a position that if they call another one, people will get fed up of these constant votes of no confidence. So it has massively backfired.

The government in reality can just plough on and hope the housing crisis is reduced. With Brexit it was always going to increase the tax intake as people dont have the option now of shipping in stuff from the UK all the time. So it pushed more customers to the irish shops which increased the tax etc

Will it stay the same? most people are looking at alternatives now like Germany etc

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578575#Comment_119578575

Robert Tory's situation didn't help the government, while I understand that issue is not exclusive to him or his party, it didn't look good.

And then their is potentially afar bigger scandal happening which could really set the government back.

The Greens will have to pull out at some point but it probably won't be until 2024, I think the 2 other government parties should consider stepping away because The Greens will pull out too late for them and just be on the cusp of that miracle they so want.

Podge_irl

The Greens will have to pull out at some point

Why?

micosoft

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119571727#Comment_119571727

This is a crucial part of SF strategy as it got in ahead of the SFFF meme. If you look at transfer of vote it has mostly been FF voters shifting to SF and most of the policies (highly populist, fiscally illiterate) attract the same type of voters who believe in simple no-cost solutions. FG voters go independent.

Reality is that we are well overdue another electorate driven crash like 2008 and Jack Lynch's late seventies bonfire of taxes.

No reason why FG can't step back from this, lift SF's strategy by relentlessly attacking SFFF. Wait till the IMF are back in running the country. And get back in the late 2020's.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578590#Comment_119578590

The Troy issue was just a lot of noise to be honest. A lot of people shouting about it online but actually people on the street? when I talked to people during work they either had no idea about it or couldn't care less.

It was the same with Zappone last year, loads of noise online as if this was the worst thing ever, ask someone on the street today who Zappone is and they would have no idea.

People are complaining about LL while complaining we don't have enough LL, which is it?

You can't complain about large companies coming in and buying up properties while also complaining when a local man has a few houses to rent. I am not saying Troy was right, these TD's and parties should be declaring all properties and interests. It seems to be a bit of a financial web when you look into them

Not sure what the bigger scandal is? maybe you can share

The Green should stay the course, if they implement plans they will keep voters, if they get screwed over by FF/FG they will also win back voters. Jumping ship now is just going to end them up on scrap heap again for a few elections/

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578669#Comment_119578669

I don't disagree, to be honest after the 2020 election the best place to be was in the opposition. You didn't have to do anything and could just flip flop with the population on any decision.

Come next election, if I was a FG supporter I would tell them to go into opposition, same if I was a FF supporter. Sit back and watch it all fall apart very quickly. Then come to the rescue.

Of course that was FG plan in 2020 but that required SF to want to go into government, something they had little interest in doing,

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578675#Comment_119578675

That is largely because it wasn't picked up, RTÉ were on holidays during August. No idea is worse than couldn't care less. Troy's mistake was not declaring, I thought the rest about when he bought a house was a bit myopic (age), as I know houses in the midland were dirt cheap around 10 years ago. But his excuses for not declaring fell flat.

Imagine having a government minister so ineffective that no one knows who they are any more! I suppose I should be grateful, lets hope she never makes a comeback and stays in America.

The bigger scandal could involve the opposition parties but, I think, if it did it we would know which party, all we know is that a politician sent some texts to a younger person and they have now lost the whip of that party.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578669#Comment_119578669

The other reality is that the fake narrative peddled by some is that FG have been losing votes since 2020. The opposite is the case. The FG vote has held up remarkably well considering all that the government has had to do and that MM has been hogging the limelight.

SF has obliterated the smaller parties, but made little to no inroad into the FG vote. That makes the case for FG that they should stay the hell away from SF as their core 20% don't like SF. It may need a spell of SF in government to persuade the swing voters of the reality that SF are a disaster, and that may happen like you say.

AndrewJRenko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119572964#Comment_119572964

You can be absolutely certain that the parties have their own internal teams working on negotiating positions and strategies well in advance. The question is whether we let them continue this stuff in back room meetings undercover, or whether we expect them to talk in broad terms about what their approach will be, so voters can take this into account when voting.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578792#Comment_119578792

He had no excuse. He should be declaring. But you are hanging out a TD to dry while not asking for the same adherence to regulations from political parties. Why are parties not asked to open their books up entirely?

Bit vague the scandal. No point holding it back. Tell us all

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578929#Comment_119578929

Thread is turning into party political broadcasting but the 'what will you do' question, is an important one I believe. Particularly next time out.

Parties refusing to lay out what they are prepared to do after an election are being dishonest with the electorate and treating them with disdain. As is, being dishonest about what it is you won't do and then going and doing it, with a nudge nudge wink wink 'sure isn't that what always happens' excuse.

That's what will be interesting next time and I think the opposition will force that issue to the front of their campaigns to add to the discomfort of the main two.

brokenangel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578995#Comment_119578995

You talk about "party political broadcasting" and then proceed to do a party political broadcast.

I expect you are trying to refer to FF saying they wouldn't go into coalition with FG before the last election. These are the timelines.

Election in Feb, Covid in March. Government was formed in June. The World changed right after the election, not sure why you would suggest it didn't. If the election happens in 2025 and we have another life changing event like covid would I expect parties to change to form a government and help the people of Ireland? 100%

If we don't have a life changing event and they change their minds then questions would need to be asked.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578967#Comment_119578967

A politician has lost the party whip because he sent text messages of an inappropriate nature to a young male (underage) in the youth arm of the party.

Understandable that the politicians name is not mentioned to avoid any links to the victim, but the party name should be known.

Of course it is currently "allegedly", but he has lost the party whip.

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119579063#Comment_119579063

I can't see the government lasting until 2025, I think Summer 2024 we will have a GE.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119578929#Comment_119578929

Of course they do, they will also gameplan multiple different scenarios I am sure with multiple different positions and strategies. And they'll probably then start from scratch again after the election results are known.

They don't even know who they will be talking to - how on earth can they have a strict set of rules for what they will and will not agree to?

No one does this anywhere in the world - its an absurd request.

Parties refusing to lay out what they are prepared to do after an election are being dishonest with the electorate and treating them with disdain.

A manifesto is ultimately the political goals of a party, and something they should essentially implement if in single power. Seeing as it is unlikely for one party to be in majority any time soon there will always need to be negotiations and give and take after elections. You are electing representatives to do exactly this. Assuming you will know the electoral layout and what your basis for negotiation will be beforehand is in fact treating the electorate with significantly more disdain.