Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

It was Mary Harney who once said that a day in government beats a year in opposition. For all the claims of SF's long game strategy and their influence, it is certainly 100% clear that Mary Harney has achieved more in government than the whole of the SF party.

The biggest problem with SF's strategy is that nobody wants to talk to them. An overall majority is beyond them. With a government coming out of a Covid crisis and into an inflation crisis, neither of them of their making, tipping unpopularity levels never seen before, SF are still only getting to 36%. Those gains have come against the smaller parties, not against FF or FG.

FG had 20.9% in the 2020 general election, and despite everything that has happened are within the margin of error of that figure in nearly every poll this year. The idea, as put forward by some posters, that supporters are leaving FG in droves, simply isn't factually correct.

The biggest problem for SF is that there is a huge credibility gap for them. Even if they managed to get to 50 seats, they can't turn around after the next election and go into coalition with FF or FG, because they have spent a decade shouting at them.

That's a frankly nonsensical conclusion...FG and FF spent the best part of 100 years 'shouting at one another' didn't stop them coalescing when it was necessary.

A more realistic view of politics and how it works might be appropriate. I think that SF have stayed out of a government where they will be a junior partner and treated as junior partner for obvious reasons.

That would be smart politics IMO

Well it is isn't in the sense that you can read between the lines. Will FF close the door emphatically...I don't think they will. In fact, if SF continue in the polls as they are trending now, I expect that door to be gaping wide open.

And it will be left wide open because they know the Irish electorate will be able to see another way.

You mean at the end of 12 years she bankrupted the country?

I am just curious about what damage that the NI executive caused in the North? Half the cabinet seats are not made up of SF Ministers. Can you specifically show were a SF minister did something wrong and where non-SF members of that cabinet where able to abacate their responsibly when something did go wrong.

BTW I am not a SF voter, but I imagine a string of problems that SF have caused in the north on their own! I suppose I have to say in the last decade or last 15 years.

No fan of SF but I'd be reluctant to use the Northern Ireland assembly as proof of anything. That place is liked a jumped up county council with a shotgun coalition where practically everyone is in power. Everyone knows the real power is in London and that fact undermines it from the get go.

The truth is that we won't know what SF are going to be like in government, in Dublin, until they actually get into one.

I suppose the more relevant question is what have FG/FF/LP achieved in the last 24 years since the GFA? I assume they've each, at the very least, have candidates running for a seat in Stormont or are they still fighting over which one of them is represented by the SDLP.

Your basically trying to suggest SF have done nothing in the last 24 years while in cabinet in the North, and are unwilling to say what they should be doing or what damage they have caused since the last 24 years.

Your argument is just circular. As I say I amn't going to go of and find out all the good things that SF have done in the last 24 because I don't care about them enough, but I won't be saying they did nothing either.

So based on that one interaction SF have not do anything over the last 25 years!

But we should all agree, even though we don't know " if you watch their performance in Northern Ireland they could do a lot of damage in a very short time.!"

The only achievement that counts as far as the the topic of this thread is concerned is achieving the trust and confidence of 24% of the electorate in the previous election and if the 'trend' in polling is to be believed (it is generally a fair metric) that has risen to the mid 30%'s and is still rising.

If they achieve between 35-40% of the vote that changes the dynamic dramatically.

Only the undemocratic will refuse to talk about forming a government.

It isn't going to happen in time for the GE and you will also have Health, the Cost of Living and Energy crisis doing as yet, untold harm. The parties of government will be looking for scraps from the coalition table if they want to be in the next one.

The biggest problem for the government is that there will be a lag between the housing issue being significantly improved and the public realising that it has improved.

As some posters have suggested, SF can just sit back and wait, that is the cynical approach, that is the normal SF approach, take advantage of problems, but never offer solutions.

No it isn't but it would be naive to ignore that that is how politics works the world over.

It's whose tactic works the best that wins the day.

Robert Tory's situation didn't help the government, while I understand that issue is not exclusive to him or his party, it didn't look good.

And then their is potentially afar bigger scandal happening which could really set the government back.

The Greens will have to pull out at some point but it probably won't be until 2024, I think the 2 other government parties should consider stepping away because The Greens will pull out too late for them and just be on the cusp of that miracle they so want.

This is a crucial part of SF strategy as it got in ahead of the SFFF meme. If you look at transfer of vote it has mostly been FF voters shifting to SF and most of the policies (highly populist, fiscally illiterate) attract the same type of voters who believe in simple no-cost solutions. FG voters go independent.

Reality is that we are well overdue another electorate driven crash like 2008 and Jack Lynch's late seventies bonfire of taxes.

No reason why FG can't step back from this, lift SF's strategy by relentlessly attacking SFFF. Wait till the IMF are back in running the country. And get back in the late 2020's.