Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

I don't see how FG could be forced into that position against their will. Seems almost certain FF will go into the election leaving the door open to a deal with SF and FG ruling it out. If one of them has to hook up with SF I don't see how FF can make a reasonable argument that it shouldn't be them.

I'm thinking the wiser heads in FF may have a "Let this cup pass from me" attitude to a deal with SF. They may accept the necessity to step up if required but know it would not be in FF's own medium to long term interests. I suspect they would prefer if one of these scenarios materialised

• SF get 70+ reps and try to go it as a minority government
• SF find support from the remnants of other left parties (of which there won't be much) and independents to put together a govt

It remains to be seen who'll go in with them and how many seats they might get with the new Dail at 170-180 seats. I'm less convinced of the need for FF to throw their lot in with them and a virgin government of the left have absolutely no idea just how tough it is in power. Personally don't think they have much talent even if they rope in Labours and/or the SDs and if there is one the left does well it is splitting and falling out.

Well, at the moment, FG are 5% higher than FF in the opinion polls.

Unless its a FF + SF government, I don't actually see a majority government being formed at all at this stage, still 2 years + to go though. Before the next election, both FF and FG need to announce what their plans are, are they hoping to return the same government again? Will FF + FG want to enter government together again, or are either of them willing to go into power with SF?

LAB stated before the last election that they would not be looking to enter government. They have changed leader since then, however nothing much else has changed. If they were convinced to go into power, and SF wanted the "left government" they would be courted by both SF and FF + FG. In that instance, its far from a given that they would side with SF.

Indeed no party is under an obligation to discuss their plans for government formation, however, if FF and FG stated that their plans are to return the current government, then the two parties should be transfer friendly.

LAB is still in decline since 2016, I really would be shocked if they entered government again.

Holly Cairns only won her seat on transfers from an SF candidate in 2020 - a bump for SF (or resurgent FG now that KAren Coakley is out) there would have brought FG a seat in 2020 and higher SF in 2020 would have delivered the seat to SF. Cairns is out in the next election, surely

Garry Gannon - won the seat on the back of MLMcD not having a running mate - he'll be eviscerated in 2020 (unless he jumps ship to SF which is a slim possibility)

Cian O'Callaghan - Denise Mitchell SF had almost 2 quotas in 2020 which gifted both him and possibly Aiodhan O Riordan a seat on transfers. He only had half a quota in his own right so we'll be waving "bye bye" to him next election.

Jennifer Whitmore had .59 of a quota so has a better chance but was helped along by FG splitting its vote 3 ways (1.54 quotas) and SF having a large surplus with nowhere to go (1.45 quotas) so she'll be battling it out with FF (.83 quotas) the greens and possibly a stronger FG 2nd candidate (they made a huge mistake in running Billy Timmins in 2020).

Shortfall and Murphy are safe: with such a licking in an election would find it hard to see why they would take the risk of further cannibalisation and more likely to stay outside government. (Murphy in particular I'd predict will NEVER go into government.)

Going for a Ministry when you've not had one before does not guarantee any pension. You need 2 years service to get a cent; and reshuffles or new elections can knock you out.

Shortall does not have one (she is over 65, and elected before 2004 so could claim it under either basis if so) as her service was under 2 years. A few months could be very valuable there!

I just hope that during the next election campaign we won't have the likes of RTE and Pat Kenny hounding all of the parties to rule out going into coalition with other parties at every given opportunity. Realistically FG and SF are highly unlikely to go into coalition with each other. They know it. The voters know it. We don't need some kind of blood oath ruling it out.

As we move away from the big two party system and more into the multiple medium to small sized parties we're going to see more complex coalitions formed. If parties start ruling out other parties before the election even happens it doesn't really help anyone and makes everything more complex after the election.

Not sure what the answer is. I agree it is a difficult one when you are campaigning against another party, to be asked would you coalesce with them.

But one sure thing, it will be asked. People will want to know if they are voting for the same thing again or not.

Once Varadkar is Taoiseach, FF will start to differentiate themselves from FG - and perhaps stir things a little but it will be the Greens who bring down the Government (I think Spring next year). SF will do well but there will be a three way tie with FF, FG and themselves. FG and FF will go into Govt again together….