Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153193#Comment_119153193

Let's hope its sort this weekend. And continues to be sorted. You wouldn't want a fire raging in a local recycling centre happening! <<< that last part is about a recycling centre fire the continued for weeks when Gormley was Min for Environment. (And tbh I know only a limited amount about the story).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153195#Comment_119153195

IMO SD should be cozying up to Costello and Hourigan to see if they would be interest in from the SDGP, Social, Democratic and Green Party.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153158#Comment_119153158

I'd agree, if SF run enough people, I could see a SF/SD/GP govt.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153195#Comment_119153195

Yeah the GP will be around regardless of the qty of seats. They could have zero seats for the next 2-3 elections and they'll still be there. You couldn't say that about many parties.

They had a good showing at the last local elections (went from 12 to 49 seats) and a lot of their councilors are acquitting themselves very well. Any that I'm familiar with are very visible on the ground with local groups that would be concerned with the livability of their areas.

That being said, SD are cut from a similar cloth and the candidates I'm familiar with seem very savvy in their approaches to community engagement which will pay dividends in the longer term.

L1011

A substantial number of that 49 have left to go Independent or join ARG.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119154371#Comment_119154371

I count 4, with 2 of those forming ARG, hardly what I'd call "substantial".

sam t smith

Social Democrats can’t agree on a leader. What chance they could agree to join a government?

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119154635#Comment_119154635

I think for the co-leaders of the party it is a case of waiting until both retire before electing a new leader. TBF you could say the same about LP after all how many leaders have they had in the last 10 years? 5?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151314#Comment_119151314

This is true.....but there is no political need,nor of any particular benefit to average person in stable governments,with interest rates etc outside of control of any government,(and in theory budget defifcits limited in eu treaties)

Its merely a lobbists dream,to know who to lobby,and we can only see how that has ended up....

whereas a tight government leaves it more open to having to face electorate more regularly to maintain its mandate (unlike a farcial situation of rotating taoiseachs and mid-term cabinet reshuffles,would prefer a government doing this,be endorsed by electorate)

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153022#Comment_119153022

I'd agree with most of this, but SF getting 70+ is a massive ask despite how useless the 2 main parties are.

I need to properly look at the TD map, and while its obvious their is constituencies where their is room for another SF such as Waterford with Callinane I dunno if their is enough for them to nearly double the amount of tds elected.

60 for me would be a pretty impressive haul and I suspect SF would take that right now as it gives them something to work with when it comes to forming a coalition.

brokenangel

The people who voted for the greens before will vote for the Greens again, the agenda by some online is really just water off a ducks back to those voters and fair play to them.

I said at the last election I hoped SF would appear and form a government because I didn’t see it lasting til the end of covid, unfortunately SF realised that themselves so had no interest in forming a government

The next election they might “win” but can they actual form a government? FG won’t join them, FF by the day doesn’t look like a hope

So they will be left trying to form with PBP etc and you can imagine what that will turn out to be, let alone the problem SF have in trying to pull together enough ministers.

Anyway, at this stage it would be better to just let them in, run it into the ground and then we can pick up the mess. Anyone who thinks that Pearse Doherty etc can be a Minister for finance is crazy, especially when you see the wages of 140k for higher tax and then drop by 40k in a few months to 100k, shows they haven’t a clue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119157762#Comment_119157762

It'll be interesting to see how many candidates they do end up running. If they can fill the map in all constituencies I think they'll stand a good chance of 65-75,but I don't see any way to a majority for them.

As for partners, FF might go for it, just to get into office but they will have to be well aware that they run the risk of diluting their identity as a stand alone option.

FG, I don't see that happening. They'll want to stay as the main opposition to ensure they are the best alternative.

Interesting times ahead whatever happens and a lot of it comes down to how many candidates they (SF) can field

sam t smith

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158099#Comment_119158099

Will they do some vetting this time?

🧐

Can they do better than Violet-Anne ‘scrounger’ Wynne or Reada ‘anti semite’ Cronin next time around?

🤔

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158145#Comment_119158145

Yeah I acknowledged that in an earlier post. They absolutely do need to be careful as damage caused by 1 nut job will adversely affect many other candidates.

Will they do the necessary culling, who knows. They have a lot of folks who are waiting for a seat and all that comes with it, might be hard to push some of the less desirable ones to the side, especially if they have provo backing which is always a concern with SF people

RoTelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119157762#Comment_119157762

SF is transfer friendly.

Take their 2020 performance, on average across each constituency they achieved 13,800 1st Pref Votes.

1. DBS - 16%
2. WW - 24% - ~6000+Q
3. TY - 12%
4. CE - 23% - ~1500+Q
5. CN-MN - 36% - ~4000+Q, running mate
6. LD-WH - 21% ~600+Q
7. MO - 22% ~2000+Q
8. KDN - 17%, SD Leader Con.
9. DSW - 29% ~9000+Q
10. W - 38% ~10000+Q
11. KY - 20% ~3000+Q
12. DL - 45% ~8000+Q, running mate ~1000+Q (Donegal)
13. DW - 28% ~4000+Q
14. DNW - 44% ~6000+Q
15. GW - 14%
16. CW-KK - 23% ~5000+Q
17. CNC - 26% ~3000+Q
18. MH-W - 30% ~2000+Q, AON Leader's Con.
19. SO-LM - 24% ~3000+Q
20. RN-G - 17%
21. DC - 35% ~6000+Q Leader's Con.
22. DBN - 29% ~10000+Q
23. LH - 44% ~8000+Q, running mate ~500+Q
24. WX - 24% ~6000+Q, LP Leader's Con.
25. DMW - 42% ~2000+Q, running mate
26. CSC - 24% ~3000+Q, FF Leader's Con.
27. DFL - 24% ~5000+Q
28. MH-E - 24%
29. L - 23% ~2000+Q
30. KDS - 21%, CC Con.
31. DSC - 39%, ~9000+Q
32. LS-OY - 24%, ~5000+Q
33. CE - 15%
34. CNW - DNR
35. CSW - 10% - EX on Count 7
36. DRD - 11% - EX on Count 7
37. LK - 15% - EX on Final Count
38. GE - 16% - EX on Final Count
39. DDL - 9% - EX on Count 6

Constituency names by Licence plate reg, were more than one constituency Licence reg followed by are e.g. DFL - Dublin Fingal.

If SF had run a few more running mates their 37 would have been more like 48 seats (Those that got 5000 over the quota, 11 seats), then in cons under 5000 you have the possibility of transfers, those getting about 3000 over the quote meaning 6 more seats. Your talking between 48-54seats in 2020.

Looking at the 6 cons the didn't get elected to, I imagine you can add them to seats in the next elect, bring them to 60seats. But I would say 60seats will mean not much of a swing to SF, you'd have to add 10 or more to that figure.

IMO.

Fred Cryton

SF will cannibalise the SD and PBP vote just as they have the Labour vote.

Remember the recent "surge" in SF vote is really just people who used to vote Labour, SD and PBP now saying they will vote SF. The FG poll numbers of around 20-22% are exactly what they got at the last election.

Also given the youth bias in the SF vote, and the older bias in the FF vote - you would have to subtract about 4 % off the SF vote and add 4% to the FF vote in an actual election to account for voter turnout.

So we will end up with SF on 30%. FG on 22% and FF on 20%.

Realistically the only way for SF to form a government is to get FF to agree to a coalition. End of story.

Galwayguy35

The SF guy here in Galway East is a shoo in I reckon, he is a busy man hightlighting all the things he thinks the voters want resolved.

Although its not hard seeing as Rabbitte seems to have no interest in the people who elected her.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119164802#Comment_119164802

SF are winning overwhelmingly in the 18-34 bracket which is to be expected, but in the last RED C poll in the 35-54 age group, they polled at 43% compared to FG AT 16% and FF at a wretched 12%,,,,that age group is the squeezed middle and they do vote unfortunately for FF/FG.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165223#Comment_119165223

Are you referring to O'Hara? He'll probably pick up a seat next time around if there is a good SF surge, he only lost out by a few hundred last time but he's a bit of a cabbage to be honest. I dealt with him on 3 occasions and he doesn't come off well at all. Great man for the photo op but I didn't see anything much beyond that.

Galwayguy35

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166275#Comment_119166275

Yeah thats him, don't know much about him really but he seems to be on the road every day commenting on one thing or another around the county.

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119155064#Comment_119155064

I assume by a "tight government", you mean one with a weak grasp on power? There is a great political need for a stable government if you want to actually get anything done.

The problem with SF + a grand coalition of the left is that there are too many competing priorities and objectives that nothing will get done, and there are too many "leaders" for there to be serious discipline. It would be like trying to herd sheep getting government bills passed, and it will be easier for the opposition to stop legislation.

The current 3 party government is only just working, and that's with 3 parties of substantial size. A SF + the rest of the left would be much, much worse.

They need FF, any other permutation wouldn't even be able to pass a budget.

iColdFusion

I for one will thoroughly enjoy a re-run of the SF election campaign based on "FF & FG are a shower of unless idiots not fit to run a piss up in a brewery" and then for the Shinners to spend weeks after the election begging FF or FG to go into government with them 😄

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119169765#Comment_119169765

I don't know, I can see the GP happily joining SF in govt if they retained the combined portfolio of Transport & Environment at the very least.

Would make for interesting back-biting and sniping though, given how many climate change deniers and general anti-science folks there are in SF, though they do seem to be gradually coming around or at least putting a lid on the more crazy denial stuff from members

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170005#Comment_119170005

SF + GP would still be far short of a majority.

WOuld need SF + GP + LB + SD + others to get a majority. Would never, ever pass a budget.

SF vote is going up but at the expense of left parties.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170032#Comment_119170032

Thats based on the number of candidates ran in the last election. You can be damned sure SF are going to get names on to every single ballot the length and breadth of the country the next time around. Based on that, I can see them taking 65-70 if the polls hold true.

If they manage that they won't want to go into power with FF as that would require giving up too many seats at the cabinet table. Instead going in with the GP and possibly SD would allow them to only give up a small amount of cabinet seats in comparison.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170069#Comment_119170069

To get 60+ would likely require the total rest-of-left to have single digits of seats between them. There won't be 25 seats between GP/SD/Lab like now.

CrabRevolution

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170005#Comment_119170005

I don't think you even need to go to the fringes of Sinn Féin to see incompatibility with the Greens. SF's pro-environmental policies are a vague copy and paste job but they are very clear about wanting carbon taxes removed, fuel duties decreased, continuing use of turf etc. Their "environment" section of their last manifesto was very eat-your-cake-and-have-it, promising "a just transition" and to strongly address climate change but at no cost or inconvenience to anyone.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170080#Comment_119170080

Yes and no.

Its well known SF left money on the table in 2020 in terms of seats. They ran 40 something candidates with some of those picking up double quota votes. If they'd had running mates as well as a sufficient spread across the constituencies, they could have easily gotten to 60 seats imho, next time around they won't make the same mistake and given the housing and inflation pressures we're likely to keep seeing for the next few years, they'll have plenty of ammo against FF/FG in the meantime which will endear them to voters feeling the pinch.

Just to be clear, I'm no supporter of SF and will likely not vote for them myself, this is just my own interpretation of the situation and I could be way off the mark in fairness.

awec

If SF get that many seats it will be because they've wiped out the other left parties, in which case their only option will still be FF.

twin_beacon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119152999#Comment_119152999

I agree with you 100% the 2020 GE showed up SF as not having enough candidates that were ready to run in a GE, they really were scraping the barrel with some of their candidates. Some of those candidates got elected because there was a protest vote against FF/FG, and not because of their political track record. The media didn't do any research into them either, as their election was so out of left field, however after their election their previous social media posts were scrutinized and some dirt was revealed, i.e. anti vax ideologies. If they really want to be leading the next government, then they need to run a LOT more candidates, but where will they come from?

I can see SF gaining more seats in the next election, but I can't see them holding all the seats they gained in this election too. There is a long way to go until the next election, I also wouldn't bet on Leo leading FG into the next election.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170113#Comment_119170113

Obviously its all antidotal etc, but yeah their is definitely friction between the two parties supporters. The term "FG on bicycles" is a line that I see a lot in SF spaces which has definitely cut through to the masses and their would be an element of The Greens who are very upper class who would consider SF to lowbrow for them.

griffin100

In my mind it’ll be a SF / FF coalition. Once FF loose seats in in the GE Martin will be out and his replacement I expect will have no issues throwing in their lot with SF. Expect to hear a lot about shared republican ideals and how they are closer than FF/FG ever where.